We often see people use rather short term statistic to support their views on stock market, which i think is not appropriate. In mankind history, there are only very few huge turning point on our civilization that made huge change to our lives (and of course, implies into economy). Here's a GDP graph that i found in Google that represents "only" 1900 to 2020 (which i think, is already too short to say anything).

From this graph, we can see that GDP per capita in dollars grew from maybe 1400 to maybe 2100 from 1900 until 1950. 50 years, grew 50%.
Now, from 1950 to 1980, it went from 2100 to 4400, meaning around 110% in just 30 years.
Then, from 1980 to 2020, it went from 4400 to 7300, that's 66% in 40 years.

From the above, we can find that in 1950-1980, the growth was more than doubled of the before and after period of years.
Lets go back to today's world. Are we experiencing another huge turning point today? Well, some said yes, and some said no. This is normal, everyone see things differently. I can only express my own opinion, which is, I think we are. I think we are in a huge turning point of mankind's civilization towards high tech era, to AI, to new energy, to the outer space. It's huge, and we are just at the beginning of the journey. The upcoming 20 years could be another huge growth in future economic statistic, maybe a 200%, or 300% growth, bigger than what we experience in 1950 to 1980. And there you go, that was about the time the first modern computer was built (in 1948), a child in high tech life cycle. What we have today is a grown up, still young and fresh, like an 18 year-old, still quite a distance away from mature, and definitely far away from being old.



This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 2 2020, 06:21 AM

That would be a great chance to buy buy buy. Give me 20% drop from here....

Buffett said, today's middle class is having a better living quality than the super rich in the past. I think his simple statement had already explained hundreds of questions in such a wise and thorough way. He has the eyes of the sky, unlike most of us that are shortsighted most of the time. He definitely deserves to be richer. Those who only know how to complain without willing to learn and adapt to the new world, unfortunately, will no doubt to become poorer because they are less needed in the new world. Life is fair, things happened for some good reasons. I always believe so.

This post has been edited by yok70: Dec 4 2020, 06:32 AM

For me, anything new product development plan in Apple is positive news. My look at Apple can conclude to one major superpower value: Top notch quality management team. With such a team, any new business is possible to be successful. It's all about management. When many talks about Apple's strong cash flow and cash preservatives, that's actually not necessarily a valid positive point. That's only one of the many outcomes coming from Apple's strong management team, nothing to shout about. If these giant cash fall in the hand of a bad management team, the mountain of cash means nothing, they can vanish in a short period of time with bad ideas and bad management.

Under Trump, US now looks like China. Policy U-turn can happen anytime, President can change policy anytime.

there is no reason why stocks not continue to rally.

Wow! Thanks for sharing. Lucky none that i owned or plan to buy.

super bull continues.... watch show

Delisting is not a risk for BABA. Its major risk is China's anti-monopoly. BABA has been winning its business through monopoly.

Tesla bought bitcoin. What do you guys think about this?

OMG! Speaking of integrity...this Musk is really....

when one said bubble or overvalued....share price valuation was set at what year? This year? Or next year? One thing, for explosive earning growth monsters, valuation might probably set for 3 years from now, or even 5 years, because the EPS may grow 2 or 3 folds within a 3 to 5 years period. If that growth didn't happen, then yes, they are at bubble now. Well, the eyes of the future who decide who is winner or loser. They might be all wrong, then these stocks are bubble, and may clash back to the ground.

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 15 2021, 12:34 AM

Interesting points. I'm not familiar with Tesla, I didn't invest in it because I am not familiar with automobile industry as well as Musk (He is very complicated and almost confusing). However, I think we cannot compare future with current industries. A future smart car is a total different beast from today's car. And, future car industry will be very different from today's as well. It's about high tech integrations, and a huge replacement trend that never before happened, particularly on public transport area. Not too surprise to see flying cars/taxi's commercial launch much earlier than we thought. In addition to that, middle class over the world has explosive growth, and will be continue in the next 5 to 10 years (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, even China still has room for growth).

The following article in Chinese is a good read regarding this topic, hopefully you can read Chinese, or hopefully google translate works well on this article.

Catherine Wood had some good points regarding the current era of situation.
她認為，現階段是前所未見的科技發展黃金時代，這是結合區塊鏈、基因序列、機器人、能源儲存、人工智慧5大科技創新的發展狂潮，因此她的投資只鎖定破壞式創新科技，沒有創新絕不投資。
科技應用領域大爆發，與以往只有單一應用技術主導的新發展大不相同，不論是1980年代的個人電腦、2000年網路大爆發，都不能與現在的5箭齊發相比。唯一可以比擬的是19世紀初期，電話、汽車、電力3大科技同步發展，為人類文明帶來巨大貢獻。

Google translate:
She believes that this stage is an unprecedented golden age of technological development. This is a development frenzy that combines the five major technological innovations of blockchain, genetic sequences, robots, energy storage, and artificial intelligence. Therefore, her investment only focuses on disruptive innovations. Technology, no investment without innovation.
The explosion of science and technology applications is very different from new developments dominated by a single application technology in the past. Both the personal computer in the 1980s and the Internet explosion in 2000 cannot be compared with the current five arrows. The only thing that can be compared is that in the early 19th century, the three major technologies of telephone, automobile, and electricity developed simultaneously, which brought great contributions to human civilization.

https://www.wealth.com.tw/home/articles/29848

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 15 2021, 11:44 PM

That happens when major change of human's life appears, such as personal computers (evolved into today's smartphone), effective communications and efficient transportation etc.

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 15 2021, 11:48 PM

i'm interested to know how do you calculate that $80 is a fair value for Apple. Please share your perspective, thank you.

I am still confused about how to calculate capital gain tax for stocks. Is it by sold price minus current average bought price?

Thanks!

So I assume the priority goes with the older stocks. Say I bought 100 shares in 2010 and 200 shares in 2021. When i sold 150 shares today, the math will goes with 100 shares (2010) + 50 shares (2021). Correct?

And regarding the selling losers before reporting tax, that's interesting. So before tax reporting time, US market should see some sell down sentiment on losers.

I can't access the above two links. I think because I'm not tdamritrade client.

This post has been edited by yok70: May 7 2021, 09:10 PM

I see. I didn't use any international platforms, I only use loccal CIMB platform to trade foreign shares. In CIMB interface, I can't choose which lots of shares to sell from my portfolio. Our government mentioned capital gain "might be a way to increase government income" recently. Hmm....

Thanks for your explanations.

rebounding already?