what will come next, between now and opec vienna meeting nov 30?

it was PUTIN's words.

let's see if the rally will break june high of 51.50.

it's a dicey situation now.

it's basically all talk, no action yet.

any cut will be only be agreed on nov 30.

and history says everyone will cheat.

but... the financial markets have bought the talk, so it goes up.

can't fight that.



i think tmrw the paris based iea will release its oct report.

this report usually swing things quite a bit, so we'll see if the tune is "supply glut persist, " well in balance" or "demand will outstrip supply".

and there is api/eia data tmrw too.

will be a hectic day tmrw for oil.

Ah yes, already out.

Not much reaction from markets, though.

I read it as demand not strong, supply glut still on but hope pins on opec cut.

So, will opec cut, cut big or cut small....?

talk is cheap.

now, everyone can say "potong".

really, as a producer, everything to gain, nothing to lose by saying "freeze" or "cut".

bullish.

deutsche bank, hanjin, samsung and now ericsson... all fell drastically recently but has not dragged anything down with them.

usa side, all seems good!

oil is looking up, as least from fin market point of view.



the only thing falling now is the RM, now 4.21x.

but...


there are now many doomsayer charts, incl this one!





edit... fresh from the press... is correction coming or not?!



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 13 2016, 03:49 PM

call them, don't expect them to answer email.

briefly, for us markets:

per transaction, <rm100k, brokerage 0.4%, min usd25.
+ sell/buy charges + contract stamp + GST.
approx 0.5% total per buy or sell.

very costly to trade. buy and invest mid-long term, maybe OK.

about same with other local banks.




to trade, u gotta get foreign brokers, much cheaper.

see post#2 of this thread.

i have used both cimb and hleb.

say, a case of 3 buys for same counter on same day, total exceeding min brokerage.
hleb will consider it as 3 separate buys, min brokerage slapped on each of the 3.
cimb will lump all 3 and consider total.

on the other hand, say u make a profit for a contra trade.
cimb will take fx on day u buy and then fx on day u sell, calc in RM, then send to yr RM bank account unless u call them.
if the fx's are such that they are against u, u still lose in RM even if there is profit in USD.
HLEB will deal only in USD, profit stays in USD.

platforms... realtime data... HLEB is cheaper/free than CIMB but... HLEB one is poor display, CIMB better.

so, both are not very good, imo.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 13 2016, 08:57 PM

doesn't look like a major correction in the making.

will take an explosive event like subprime.

but, well... never say never...

that caused a 2% drop, then recover 1.5%.

will take 49 mil bbls to crash it.

the bulls are still buying the opec talk, it would seem.

dow is up 1xx, but wti retreated and barely holding above 50.


what's coming?!

BREAKING: US oil rig count rises by 4, marking 15th increase in 16 weeks


and big kazakh oilfield now starts pumping.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...wing-for-export


dunno what to expect since there is another 45 days before opec meet on nov 30.

staying away from oil for now until it goes >52 or <45.

this 49-51 range is too tight to play.

wti 49.6x.

time for some opec guy or russian to talk it up!

i find it eerie... dow stuck at around 18.2K for last 6 weeks.

a calm before the storm?

but there is no storm in sight - banks are making good profits, commodity prices are up, oil is off low...

becos api says 3.8m bbls draw.

will see what eia says later.

crude wants to break out into new highs after eia draw.

if no bad data or negative comments from opec, it might just move higher.

close call... will not long or short yet.

continue to stay as crouching kitten and hidden lizard.

markets do not like it.

they want more drugs!

that jobless no. is close enough, does not shake things much.

if too good, rate hike chances goes up, USD up.

it too bad, rate hike chance reduce a bit.

given all data incl that, rate hike is still likely in dec, maybe 70% priced in now.

question is if it will be 25bps or higher.

something for opec to think about!

but wti still holding >50, at least for now.



this week has been very boring... sleep early, good.

russia and iran now talking it up!

the usual talk... "freeze".
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/23/oil-prices-...n-opec-cut.html

wti's hovering at 50, seems bulls and bears both sitting at the sides.

probably waiting nov 30, see if opec will actually freeze or cut or nothing.

that's a long time away...