well, we have this situation:

.. saudi pushed production to record highs.
.. saudi has enough reserves to burn a few usdbil everyday for a few more years for its economy.
.. iran and iraq not back to pre-sanction production levels.
.. libya and nigeria still battling rebels to get back to normal production.
.. venezuela on verge of economic collapse, algeria struggling.
.. russians know everything and what else is happening, what next to come.
.. americans go easy - shale is there, forever, to be used whenever whenever required.
.. >3bil bbls in excess crude now sitting on land or water, drifting, buying time, incurring costs.

so, what to expect?

.. saudi's "i will cut or freeze" will not impress the rest as they are not stupid, will not fall for bait.
.. venezuela and algeria will keep talking up the price - that's all they have been doing and can do - with some success, so far.
.. big oil cos., refineries, traders, hedge funds will need to adjust.

we will see the same farcical circus over and over until... crude goes <40 again for a while.

then, all will wake up and shelve their selfish motives, get on with it.

but will not be very successful since shale, nuclear and other alternative energies will be there.

in short, the glorious days of mighty petro$ and obscene money throwing is over. just like kodak went bankrupt when the digital age came.


*** above is just my observation, not liable for any action that failed as a result.

that article is much a rewrite.

read it before, posted it some weeks ago. here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-crude-markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-wild...-153918654.html

china is major consumer, not a producer.

with china growth slowing, and its oil stocks at full capacity, this factor can only add to the woes.

not only china, global trade is slowing.



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Sep 27 2016, 11:45 PM

hm... wti approaching 44.

didn't short enough!

guess -3.6% was a bit too much, so it went back up to 45 - for a while.

w/o fresh news, still same - expected buildup in weekly stocks, little to come out of opec.

so, dwti again!

looking for wti 43.xx tmrw.

after 2am will give some clue.

it's all gone wild.

2am... looking like prepped to fall further.

crude draw, gasoline buildup.

opec...

down, down...

up, down, up... nail biting!

all will be known later when the first opec person speaks.

at least some "deal" reached.

fair gain, 5%, 47.

volatility will probably persist for a while.

i am skeptical. it may just be another "show" - to talk up the price.

i will not fall off my chair if nothing concrete but more talk develops in the coming days.

having said that, it is probably not a good idea to short anymore until the picture is clearer.

it's past my usual bedtime... goodnight!

strange... dow suddenly -170?

hmm...

looks like it... $ rising, credit crunch in europe?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/0...financial-worl/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/m...ntagion-spreads

looking pretty bad, dow -200.

tmrw is fri... gotta be careful...

it is looking very jittery.


even the oil bulls pulled back!

BREAKING: Deutsche Bank shares spike after report it is near DOJ settlement



false alarm, all is good now.

DAX went from, -2% t o+1%.

DOW +200, recovered from yesterday.

crude... holding at 48.

dow first reached 18k in jan 2015.

yesterday, it was near 18.1k.

now it is 18.3k.



FLAT for last 2 years.

hard to make money in US stocks.

only brokers made.

even hedge funds are reeling from losses.


personally, i lost $ in us stocks in the last 2 years.

only in RM terms did i not lose!

it's a long time from now to nov opec meet.

unless some opec fella decides to jump the gun and say something extraordinary.

and no fomc meeting until early nov.

for now, it'll probably be just weekly api/eia data impact.

rig count been rising but no effect on stocks, it seems.

i think oil price volatility will go down dramatically for now.

barring some unforeseen big event happening.

the way i see it...

wti has gained 10% in 5 days.

just opec's "agree to agreement to cut in nov".

while iran and libya doing record output.

nothing else.

it's all oil bulls and short cover.

but must not underestimate that power.

so, i stay away, wait for it to touch 50..

may short then.

today-tmrw, api-eia data may swing sentiments for next few days.

wti i n a frenzy, past 50.

time to short?

this rally is extraordinary - 7 days and going strong.

at this rate, opec need not cut!

dow declines, crude finds a chance to take profit.

will be interesting to see if it return to >50 later after rig count later.

last 7 days: