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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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zacknistelrooy
post Apr 22 2020, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 22 2020, 10:21 PM)
5 more days for Brent smile.gif
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user posted image

Yeah but unless there is more forced selling then it may not happen.

After all the drama, the May contract ended around 9 so there was indeed some demand just no enough to support those who were just holding it close to expiration.

Bank of China suspends new open positions for crude oil trading product

QUOTE
BOC actively contracted with CME and market participants and confirmed the settlement price of minus $37.63/bbl. BOC has completed the expiration procedure of May contract according to previous agreement


This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Apr 22 2020, 11:17 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 22 2020, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ Apr 22 2020, 11:39 PM)
Trump uses authority to ask Chevron to quit Venezuela and order navy to shoot Iranian oil tankers.

Well...no need more money stimulus, use missiles and companies to force oil up.

So far my reads still hold strong ~median19, 16-20, looking at next 24.5 for brent. Hope it stays! Quick kills!
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Yeah

Managed to move it when it was going down in the afternoon

Guess he got confidence from his tweets about the OPEC+ production cuts

Baker Hughes and Halliburton were apparently were included in the order

Will see if he goes after China now:

Trump Is Urged to Pressure China on Its Promise to Buy U.S. Oil


QUOTE
China is falling behind in its promise to spend $52.4 billion buying U.S. energy over two years -- even as it is filling its storage tanks with Russian and Saudi crude -- independent oil producers warned the Trump administration Tuesday.

The American Exploration and Production Council urged the administration in a letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to get tough with China.

“China has only purchased a de minimis amount of U.S. crude in the first months of 2020, while it has increased purchases of crude oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia,” council chief executive Anne Bradbury said. “Rather than increasing imports from countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, the Chinese government must take the necessary steps to remain in good standing with the U.S. as a trusted trade partner.”


QUOTE(Ramjade @ Apr 22 2020, 11:46 PM)
Actually they don't shoot oil tankers. Is stupid Iran trying to flex muscle towards US navy in international waters.
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Yes:



This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Apr 23 2020, 12:04 AM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 25 2020, 08:10 PM

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U.S. Oil Fund Ordered to Limit Position, Faces Regulator Concern

QUOTE
The biggest oil exchange-traded fund has once again reshuffled its portfolio in the wake of an unprecedented crude price collapse this week -- not by choice but because it was ordered to do so.

On Friday, the United States Oil Fund disclosed for the first time that it was ordered to make changes to its position by exchange operator CME Group Inc. It’s the fourth time in just over a week that the so-called USO has disclosed revisions to its portfolio that have shifted its holdings to contracts for oil delivery further into the future. The move comes at a time when interest in the retail product has skyrocketed. Investors are pouring record levels of money into betting on a bottom to this year’s relentless plunge in oil prices.


CME CEO explaining the oil issues




Sector performance for the past month and YTD

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zacknistelrooy
post Apr 27 2020, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 27 2020, 09:01 AM)
As the USO's oil futures policy keeps changing, it's becoming more and more difficult to valuate its value via its NAV's movement and premium ratio. The change seems to benefit "longer term investors", but USO is not suppose to be an instrument for long term investment.   hmm.gif
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I don't think even for long term investors it is suitable for now at least. It is still trading at 6% premium and as long as the extreme contango issue exists it will be quite difficult to hold its value and not to mention the doezens of retail investors holding it currently.

Ultimately you are better off with trading the equity of the big majors then this product

This chart is up to 31st March 2020

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Did West Texas Intermediate collapse burn US$1 billion hole in Bank of China investors’ pockets?

QUOTE
Bank of China’s estimate for the carnage to retail investors from the collapse in a product linked to US crude oil futures surged 11-fold to more than 7 billion yuan (US$1 billion), as it consolidated reports from its nationwide network, according to people familiar with the matter.

The estimate of losses to customers across China increased from about 600 million yuan in the middle of last week, as more information was gathered from its more than 10,000 outlets, said the people, asking not to be identified as they were discussing a private matter. The number is not final and subject to further change as more branch data is examined, one of the people said.


QUOTE(FishIsSmart @ Apr 27 2020, 10:17 AM)
finding a good hong kong ETF to play. Listed in HK.
anybody knows well ?

eg.
Tracker Fund of Hong Kong
HKG: 2800
SPDR Gold Trust
HKG: 2840
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Try looking here:
QUOTE
https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Exchange-Traded-Products?sc_lang=en


This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Apr 27 2020, 05:49 PM
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 27 2020, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 27 2020, 10:13 PM)
crude is a very risky thing to invest or even trade at this time.

if USO sep is now at 2.18 and jul crude futures at 12.50, the expectation is 2-5 months out, there is still no demand.

while the oil tankers are getting filled up in the next few weeks.
but dow/s&p keeps rising... sweat.gif
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Yes
It is still going down today

Haha
Markets have really decoupled from a lot of the news

Tesla back to $790 and they running Small caps today

Lets see how long they can continue this game

QUOTE(oOoproz @ Apr 27 2020, 10:26 PM)
Crude and Equities are probably inversely related?  hmm.gif
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Yes and even more so since the end of March

CVX vs Brent

user posted image

They could have hedge some of the contracts already just like Mexico hedged oil at $50 or they probably just behaving as irrational as the stock market


zacknistelrooy
post Apr 28 2020, 07:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 28 2020, 11:05 AM)
A followup to the China's Starbuck copycat Luckin.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/luckin-c...-021357652.html

Nothing but fake sales numbers..

This thing aught to be delisted by Nasdaq asap instead of suspended.

Such a terrible news. No wonder, this put such a horrible taste in investors mouth.
Hopefully, no one here invested in LK.
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This documentary tells some of the story that has been going on for long with the help from bankers

https://www.netflix.com/my/title/80221646?source=35

QUOTE(oOoproz @ Apr 28 2020, 12:11 PM)
Just be careful when trading oil etf
USO ETFs
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Yeah

Even S&P Global has moved their index to July

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...-away-from-june

QUOTE
S&P Global Inc., the company behind the most popular commodity index, told clients to roll all their exposure out of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for June into July with immediate effect, triggering a big drop in oil prices.

“This unscheduled roll is being implemented based on the potential for the June 2020 WTI Crude Oil contract to price at or below zero as well as the steady decline in open interest for the June 2020 contract,” the company said in a notice seen by Bloomberg News. A spokesperson confirmed the notice.

zacknistelrooy
post Apr 29 2020, 08:04 PM

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/boeing-ba-e...gs-q1-2020.html

QUOTE
Boeing is facing a dismal market for new planes as air travel demand plunges as the pandemic and measures to stop it from spreading keep travelers home. Air travel in the U.S. is down 95% from a year ago. Boeing’s CEO Dave Calhoun told shareholders on Monday it likely would take two or three years for travel demand to recover to 2019 levels, a sharp turnaround for an industry that just earlier this year was betting on continued growth.


https://simpleflying.com/airbus-q1-loss/

QUOTE
Airbus today issued its first-quarter results to media, reporting an overall loss of €481 million ($522 million). The company did have some positive news, such as 290 new aircraft orders. While this was 58 less than last year, it’s a solid result given the current situation.

Additionally, the firm delivered a total of 122 commercial aircraft in the quarter (40 less than last year). Airbus built and delivered eight A220s, 96 A320 family aircraft, four A330s, and 14 A350s. However, Airbus also reported that 60 aircraft built were not able to be delivered to airlines.



Both stocks up +4% pre market
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 29 2020, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 29 2020, 08:14 PM)
Will go in small qty for BA if it dip further.
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I am in Airbus as I have always felt it is better managed compared to Boeing and they might have less problems getting help from EU compared to BA getting help from US gov.

Boeing probably has more upside if they can get their act together though
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 30 2020, 07:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 29 2020, 09:19 PM)
Boeing is USAF major supplier, pentagon and Congress will award fat contracts to them.
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So does Airbus though it is only half of what Boeing does.

Boeing stock at least will always have problems realizing the full value of its defense division if the commercial division can't get their act together

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 29 2020, 09:52 PM)
I don't get the stock BA.  Facing so many hurdles since the 737max fiasco, and now much lower travels and orders being cancelled, and weak demands. This thing should not be over 100 at all.  hmm.gif
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Well it fell nearly 80% peak to bottom and even during all the problems it was facing last year it never really broke down.

I guess their share holders are a very hopeful bunch

QUOTE
While the pandemic has upended the entire restaurant industry, fast-food chains like McDonald’s are faring relatively better. Transactions at fast-food restaurants fell 34% in the week ended April 19, while the overall industry saw transactions plunge 36% compared with a year ago, according to data from the NPD Group.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/mcdonalds-m...gs-q1-2020.html


Another company pulls guidance for the year.
zacknistelrooy
post Apr 30 2020, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 30 2020, 10:49 PM)
well, the man just said:
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Well if everyone is going to do it then sooner or later it is going to matter less to the market

but the "when" requires Nostradamus

QUOTE
Calculations by Bloomberg suggest that Bank Indonesia could end up holding 11% of the government’s debt, excluding bills, by the end of February next year, while the central banks of Australia and New Zealand are headed for 24% and 39%, respectively. The Reserve Bank of India looks poised to boost its ownership significantly from the present 15%.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...ng-bond-markets

This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: May 1 2020, 12:27 AM
zacknistelrooy
post May 1 2020, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(Pain4UrsinZ @ May 1 2020, 12:02 AM)
hi guys, how to buy US IPO ? maybank CDS account can ?
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None in Malaysia that I know off

In US it is reserved for those with large accounts..

If you can sign up in US then ClickIPO or Motif are some of the ones that offer IPO's to retail investors.
zacknistelrooy
post May 1 2020, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 1 2020, 10:38 AM)
-17% isn't that bad... for a giant chain like McD.  They got drive-thru service and I've seen long lines too during pandemic.
Some people still go in and take out.  People aren't getting enough of their horrible food but hey who cares when they still
make millions, right?   brows.gif

Anyway, I think it's an opportunity to buy more McD if it dips again.  waiting for one more around under 125-135 area...dunno
if we can see that anymore.    drool.gif
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Yeah

Some restaurants seem to be doing quite well while the small restaurants suffer. There will definitely be issues if that dynamic continues as they make up like 50% of employment in US.

Even Wingstop managed to hit an all time high



In other news it seems demand for US investment grade bonds no matter who is still quite high

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/boeing-rais...ederal-aid.html

QUOTE
Boeing on Thursday said it doesn’t plan to seek federal aid after raising a whopping $25 billion in a bond offering, the company’s biggest debt sale ever, as it faces what it expects to be a multi-year slump in air travel because of the coronavirus pandemic.
US investment-grade bonds deals comapred to past April months

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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: May 1 2020, 10:00 PM
zacknistelrooy
post May 2 2020, 09:57 PM

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffett...ter-11588422311

QUOTE
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B -2.50% swung to a first-quarter loss as the selloff in markets hit the company’s vast investments, though the company’s operating earnings rose in the quarter.

Berkshire’s earnings are especially volatile due to an accounting rule that went into effect in 2018 requiring companies to include unrealized investment gains or losses in their net income. Berkshire holds large stock investments, and their quarterly changes in value can have a big effect on Berkshire’s net income.

Berkshire reported a first-quarter loss of $49.7 billion, or $30,653 per Class A share equivalent, from $21.66 billion, or $13,209 a share, in the year-earlier period.

Operating earnings, which exclude some investment results, rose to $5.87 billion from $5.56 billion in the year prior. Mr. Buffett has said operating earnings are more reflective of Berkshire’s performance.

Declines in profitability at the company’s railroads, utilities and energy and insurance underwriting divisions were offset by a rise in insurance investment income.
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zacknistelrooy
post May 3 2020, 10:02 PM

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-tu...ts&page=1&pos=2

QUOTE
TD Ameritrade said last week that retail clients opened a record 608,000 new funded accounts in the quarter ended March 31, with more than two-thirds of those opened in March. E*Trade saw a net gain of 363,000 accounts in the quarter—a company record—around 90% of which were retail. Charles Schwab Corp. reported a record 609,000 new brokerage accounts in the quarter, including individuals’ self-directed accounts and those managed by financial advisers.

Could be one of the reasons a stock like SPCE went parabolic in February

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Some data of rebalancing maybe or even more risk taking
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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: May 3 2020, 10:03 PM
zacknistelrooy
post May 4 2020, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ May 3 2020, 11:54 PM)
Wow imagine all this who open think about making easy money and if market disappoint them how many going to swear off stocks.
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Yeah and already so many were not willing to enter the market back after GFC. The implications from another crash without a bounce are going to be far reaching

https://robintrack.net/

The website above tracks Robinhood users but doesn't say how much they buy though

Still concerning on how they purchase stocks

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zacknistelrooy
post May 5 2020, 09:05 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2020, 01:45 AM)
It seems many retail investors jumped in after march stock rout. Similar happens at Bursa?
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Not that much from the data but that doesn't mean they didn't participate more through other channels

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QUOTE(FishIsSmart @ May 5 2020, 08:03 PM)
robintrack is great tool. how u find this tool ?
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I was finding for ways to track retail trading on google and this came up

It is more current compared to TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 5 2020, 08:42 PM)
US market looking very bullish..
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So far ignored the the ruling in Europe other than the early fall when the news came out


zacknistelrooy
post May 6 2020, 08:21 PM

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For anyone interested in economic data

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zacknistelrooy
post May 7 2020, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ May 6 2020, 10:40 PM)
Very good, ive been buying dips and selling off after every few % gain.

It's really a trading market now. Companies that announce bad earnings, will recover back to the prior pricing based on a couple of companies i tracked.

I.e USFD. i like.
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Yeah

With volatilty where it is a trading market

Disney is also another good example. Was up 3% and then ended the day flat



More vaccine news

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/fda-approve...se-2-study.html

QUOTE
Shares of Moderna surged by more than 16% in premarket trading Thursday after it announced that the Food and Drug Administration cleared its coronavirus vaccine for phase 2 trial, what the company called a “crucial step.”

Moderna said it will begin phase 2 trials with 600 participants shortly and is finalizing plans for a phase 3 trial as early as this summer.

“We are accelerating manufacturing scale-up and our partnership with Lonza puts us in a position to make and distribute as many vaccine doses of mRNA-1273 as possible, should it prove to be safe and effective,” CEO Stephane Bancel said in a statement. The company hopes to start a phase 3 trial early this summer here, which would potentially approve the first batch as soon as 2021, he said.

zacknistelrooy
post May 7 2020, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 7 2020, 10:15 PM)
Yup.

So far, it has scored another 3.169 millions job losses since last week and totaled approx 33 millions people out of job in US
the past 6 weeks... that's more than the housing market crash now but yet stock market continues to rise
due to liquidity (the banks and Fed) but it won't last that long because the underlying economy is rotting now.
A lot of the jobs may not be coming back anytime soon.

33 million people, if this is Malaysia.. we can see everyone become beggars on streets.  doh.gif

Let's get ready for the big short....  brows.gif
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Definitely but the pain trade is up for now

The extra unemployment benefit last up to the end of July but there is talk they may extend it till the virus end

Most pessimistic since 2013

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This post has been edited by zacknistelrooy: Nov 7 2020, 12:43 AM
zacknistelrooy
post May 9 2020, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(GloryKnight @ May 8 2020, 11:29 PM)
@zack: did you jumped in ytd if u seen my message? If you did, sell today/now. I just sold mine at 4. Profit bout ~40+usd only.

@yok70: i agree with you market correction is coming very soon, hopefully next week :haha: but yes i reckon may-june, we might see a correction.
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Good catch

Thank you

Did not get a chance this week since was quite busy and already allocated my remaining funds for hedging and purchasing the breakout in Twilio.

XLE is trending quite bullish and it seems gasoline prices are improving and PSX has been on strong uptrend

Don't have any positions in them yet but seems good trading stocks


For anyone interested in the stark disconnect in US

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