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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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danmooncake
post May 11 2017, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ May 10 2017, 10:51 PM)
Anyone here long UVXY? I have been noticing that this stock market has been very quiet ever since Trump win. Something not right?
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IMO, this one is VERY dangerous to play. One must tread carefully.
VXX is already bad enough because of extreme tracking error of the VIX.. and it has decayed so much.

UVXY (being Ultra) is 3x more.. when it gets below 10, they're reverse split again and again.
It will seem that it has imploded 1000 times from just two years ago.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: May 11 2017, 12:00 PM
danmooncake
post May 11 2017, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(talexeh @ May 11 2017, 11:01 AM)
$SNAP is dropping like a fly. Gonna see how it trends tonight. tongue.gif
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Not going to buy until it goes below $20.
ILoveLalat.net
post May 11 2017, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 11 2017, 11:57 AM)
IMO, this one is VERY dangerous to play. One must tread carefully.
VXX is already bad enough because of extreme tracking error of the VIX.. and it has decayed so much.

UVXY (being Ultra) is 3x more..  when it gets below 10, they're reverse split again and again.
It will seem that it has imploded 1000 times from just two years ago.
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Yup, 300% agree with you on what you said.

For me personally, the volatility on the VIX futures is so low that I think just for these next few days, it should be worth the trade. Going to offload maybe tonight or tomorrow.

Never ever to consider this as "investment" as SVXY seems to be more stable over the last few years.
talexeh
post May 11 2017, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 11 2017, 12:02 PM)
Not going to buy until it goes below $20.
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AH is already below $20. biggrin.gif

But TBH, I don't see how $SNAP is worth even $10. sweat.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post May 11 2017, 10:13 PM

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Market drop is finally happening, bear trap or this is the beginning of the end? Place your bets here! biggrin.gif

For starters, I'll be longing SPY options. See if I'm wrong...
icemanfx
post May 11 2017, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ May 11 2017, 10:13 PM)
Market drop is finally happening, bear trap or this is the beginning of the end? Place your bets here! biggrin.gif

For starters, I'll be longing SPY options. See if I'm wrong...
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In the short run, stock market is on random walk.

yok70
post May 12 2017, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 11 2017, 11:57 AM)

VXX is already bad enough because of extreme tracking error of the VIX.. and it has decayed so much.

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exactly. VXX hardly able to follow VIX. not even on single day trade. When after few days, the difference became huge. UVXY much worst.
ILoveLalat.net
post May 12 2017, 07:55 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 11 2017, 11:25 PM)
In the short run, stock market is on random walk.
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Yup, has always been on that. But now the problem is recently, the stock market has been "really predictable", say a plunge of 0.7 percent or more, can just buy calls and watch one's well increase.

So I woke up this morning, what the flippin heck, expected! From 55, my call jump to 97. It is been too predictable that it would rebound back on this scale. Same goes the way, no wonder this market is really fake. doh.gif

QUOTE(yok70 @ May 12 2017, 02:11 AM)
exactly. VXX hardly able to follow VIX. not even on single day trade. When after few days, the difference became huge. UVXY much worst.
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Yeah, think it's due to contango. The ETF has been much of a drag lately cause the NAV is a positive 20 cent today from down 7 cent on the official close.

I hated the VXX, particularly that it's really fake.

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: May 12 2017, 08:01 AM
ILoveLalat.net
post May 15 2017, 09:25 PM

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Amusing that with the cyber attacks ongoing, the market is very unfazed about it. Looks quite decent to short hmm...
danmooncake
post May 15 2017, 10:42 PM

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Hey guys, Oil (WTI) spiked after Opec and Russian agreed on continued production cuts till next year..
now back to to the higher end of 45-49 range.

It may go higher but I'm taking some profits here. Leave a bit on the table and see how high it can go.
May rebuy back in if it can fill back that gap at 47.xx

If it can continue to break that $50 ceiling, then will be more bullish, more to add later.

Last week, more rigs added. It's putting an anchor to the price.
mikehwy
post May 15 2017, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 15 2017, 10:42 PM)
Hey guys, Oil (WTI) spiked after Opec and Russian agreed on continued production cuts till next year..
now back to to the higher end of 45-49 range.

It may go higher but I'm taking some profits here. Leave a bit on the table and see how high it can go.
May rebuy back in if it can fill back that gap at 47.xx

If it can continue to break that $50 ceiling, then will be more bullish, more to add later.

Last week, more rigs added. It's putting an anchor to the price.
*
yes. crude somehow finds its way upwards. seems hitting abive 50 anytime from now. not much news ither than cut here cut there. so its good news aftwrall.
ILoveLalat.net
post May 15 2017, 11:21 PM

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Sold off my SPY puts down 6 pips. Over because I could not make my order entry to Nasdaq permit-able. Got to enter C2 from now on. doh.gif
AVFAN
post May 15 2017, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 15 2017, 10:42 PM)
Hey guys, Oil (WTI) spiked after Opec and Russian agreed on continued production cuts till next year..
now back to to the higher end of 45-49 range.

It may go higher but I'm taking some profits here. Leave a bit on the table and see how high it can go.
May rebuy back in if it can fill back that gap at 47.xx

If it can continue to break that $50 ceiling, then will be more bullish, more to add later.

Last week, more rigs added. It's putting an anchor to the price.
*
u should! biggrin.gif

between now and may 25, i think it can go either way... 51 or 47.
yok70
post May 16 2017, 02:10 AM

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above 2400 once again....is it heading 2450 or a building a temporarily peak? hmm.gif
danmooncake
post May 16 2017, 10:59 PM

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I'm all out tonight. In cash again, seeing Oil pull back down below $49 here.
Just can't trust OPEC and Russians to do the right thing.

API report and EIA will come out soon, not so sure if we will see larger than expected draws.

icemanfx
post May 17 2017, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ May 16 2017, 10:59 PM)
I'm all out tonight. In cash again, seeing Oil pull back down below $49 here.
Just can't trust OPEC and Russians to do the right thing.

API report and EIA will come out soon, not so sure if we will see larger than expected draws.
*
What is the right thing? oil price up or down?

danmooncake
post May 17 2017, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 17 2017, 11:48 AM)
What is the right thing? oil price up or down?
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I think I've pulled the trigger just at the right time. <phew!> sweat.gif
After the market closed, API reported higher than expected inventory levels.
I can see the Asian Oil market already pulling back.

Let see if the EIA numbers tonight will coincide or not when US market opens again.
ILoveLalat.net
post May 17 2017, 07:26 PM

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US futures is rebounding as we speak, yet another false pullback on Trump's weakness? I am still not convinced that the market will go down any further over the next few weeks.
icemanfx
post May 17 2017, 08:59 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ May 17 2017, 07:26 PM)
US futures is rebounding as we speak, yet another false pullback on Trump's weakness? I am still not convinced that the market will go down any further over the next few weeks.
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If Trump is impeached, the market is likely to rise. However, impeachment is unlikely until after mid term election. The more scandals trump embroidered​ in, the more likely he will be impeached.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 17 2017, 09:06 PM
icemanfx
post May 17 2017, 09:25 PM

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With Saudi u turn on austerity measures and expected worsening fiscal deficit, it may lead the oil production increase sooner than expected.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 17 2017, 09:26 PM

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