read post #2.

everything up.

except oil!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 18 2016, 10:41 PM

i think it's going to 44.50.

today, asian markets pushed it up, then european markets tried hard to keep it at 46.

but, as seen often under shaky conditions, they all chicken back to 45 before 9.30pm.

now, it just yo-yo within 30 cents.

but i think there will be fireworks after 1am.

after a few hours of calm, last 20min... ok, can call it fireworks.

collected a few ikan bilis.

will hold the rest for tmrw.

this last minute rush up is suspect... can't see wti going anywhere except down.

dow's gone up 7 sessions in a row.

beware profit taking...

the api/eia game starts again tonight/tmrw.

as an appetizer, 2 "conflicting" estimates in the last 12 hours:


Further weighing on supply, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories likely fell by 2.2 million barrels from 521.8 million barrels in the week ended July 15, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed on Monday.

....

Market intelligence firm Genscape reported that the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for U.S. crude futures saw a supply build of 26,460 barrels in the week to July 15, traders who saw the data said.

this is scary...


i feel relieved to be with goog: +8% in 1 month.

few minutes to opening.

oil bulls looking for a reason and found one today!

A protest over wages that shut the eastern Libyan oil terminal of Hariga forced the operator of the Sarir field to suspend production of 100,000 barrels per day.


but really, we'll have to see how api/eia plays out.

profound numbers may seal the direction for the next few weeks.

i'm counting on 41.xx.

i am hoping to trade all the way to 41.

just sold dwti at 87.

now waiting to buy back at <86.

but can only do with low cost brokerage...

the battle of 45 continues!

again, we watch after 1am.

fireworks guaranteed.

broader market also taking a pause...

aug 44.98, sep 45.77.

44.70 is here.

looks like 44.66 is the lowest for today - mild fireworks.

from past few days pattern, it will ramp up, maybe to 45, after 2.15am.

then wait for api data at 4.30am.



and dow looks like going to close negative, snapping 7 day winning streak.

oops...

2.17am... it dived!

very weak indeed...

wti futures rolling over from aug to sep...

sep 45.47
aug 44.60.

2.3m draw is not high. will see what eia says tonight.


U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, trade group American Petroleum Institute (API) reported. That was just above a 2.1 million-barrels draw forecast in a Reuters poll.

For distillate inventories including diesel, API reported a surprise draw of 484,000 barrels. It also said there was an unexpected gasoline build of 805,000 barrels.

true, true...

that's how money is made - has to go up.

going down shrinks the pie, most will lose.

but...

as usual, watch 9pm onwards - the bulls will dump, let nymex deal with it.

my take is unless eia reports draw of >3mil, wti will not go up.

if it reports a buildup, it will dive like hell, nice then.

ooo...

not even 9pm, wti dived 1.2%.

today is interesting.

3 hrs before eia report, european bulls kept pushing it up.

1.5 hrs before eia report, they dumped and ran off, passed to nymex.

0.5 hr before eia report, nymex bulls push it back up a bit.



boy... if eia report says -5mil, the bulls will have a field day!

if eia report sya +1mil, the bears will maul them thru n thru.