dow/s&p may hit new record highs tonight.


but crude...looking bad, again...



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 11 2016, 07:19 PM

it's heading for 44.

time to go short!

i am surprised xle is still green...



strong market rally. nasdaq going 5k again.

"oil market becoming more balanced..."

i actually can't understand that... when stockpiles are still building, production still on the rise and demand not rising that much.

i am somehow curiously fearsome that one day soon, somebody won't/can't hold their stocks anymore.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 12 2016, 12:46 AM

43 will not be easy to break.

tmrw/wed, the api-eia game returns.

these two fellas never fail to create havoc every week.

get ready!

closest would be szo, inverse of uso.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SZO?ltr=1

here's another analyst saying "oil market is now more balanced, tighter...".
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/10/oil-near-2-...et-balance.html

then somewhere in the text, it reads:
Other data from Friday showed hedge funds cut bullish bets on U.S. crude to the lowest in four months.

yes, this szo is very low volume, not much interest.



it's closing time, wti dives back to 44.70.

despite broad market rally.

i see it going to 44.2x tmrw.

holding my dwti!



anyway, today... biggest winners are tech and financials... nice gains for my xlf and goog!

oil bear, mama bear.

papa bear coming.

may - crude price up
june - overall flat

july - dropped. if it continues to drop or stay low, petrol price should go down, 10-15 sen/l.

like we have seen many times, even a small piece of positive news will send the oil bulls rallying!

Oil prices rise on Iraq loading worries; bearish investors cap gains

will see later if the usual pattern emerges - asian/european traders will push it up high, then drop like hell just before nymex opens.



but really, the fall has been too sharp, some recovery is to be expected...

i will be at the keyboard at 9.30pm.

dow futures now +7x; if it goes lower, wti will likely dive.

i will go dwti again if it stays up high.

there is no big reason for wti to rally except for the iraq thingy which is supposedly resolved now.

and the usual "weak $"...

but must not forget the fabulous api insider info syndrome later in the session.

fun night ahead.

for the record:


Dow breaks above all-time closing high, up 100 points

this wti...

up 4% in 5hrs, then down 2% in 1 hr...

looks like some profit taking now.

that always happen.

broad market has stretched a lot since brexit.

feeling a little chicken, wanna sell some now.

i just went dwti 81.

don't wanna miss the "api-eia conflict" game tmrw.

incredible!

will see if it holds by 2.30am.


today's rally is across the board - all sectors.

40 more mins.

may have to surrender...

no la... the volatility gets to you - cold feet, very normal.



looking at the gyrations in the last few minutes, i will hold until tmrw.

maybe api will report +3.3mil instead of experts estimate of -3.3mil.

then maybe eia will report -1mil.

really, hard to think it will rally another 3% after 5% today.