the party is not over yet i guess....some rest, for this trump round.

oil up 4.5%! are you kidding me?

for some strange reason, the market today suddenly finds red hot optimism in coming opec deal.

must be expecting a deep cut, good enforcement, oil goes to 60.

but will be a bumpy ride.

until then, can play both uwti and dwti on any day.

It's really crazy and bullish move for crude and amazing to see UWTI+DWTI move in double digits percentage in opposite direction. That gap open really leave little chance to escape unharm if you're on the wrong side. You guys are brave!
For me, safer to ride XLE with a little options play...

Right now, we're back to the middle again at 45.xx.
Let's toss a coin here to see if it wants to go to 50s or back to low 40s.

uwti/dwti is surely daredevil sports.

unless it is a small amount.

a swing of 10-15% happens, like last night.

i got some ikan bilis with uwti earlier in the session.

then went dwti later, will see what happens tonight.

api reported +3.7mil bbls.

if eia reports draw tonight, i return the ikan bilis...

The Wolfcamp formation, was found to hold 20 billion barrels of oil trapped in four layers of shale beneath the desert in West Texas, the U.S. Geological Survey said in a report on Tuesday. That’s almost three times larger than North Dakota’s Bakken play and the single largest U.S. unconventional crude accumulation ever assessed. At current prices, that oil is worth almost $900 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...of-oil-u-s-says

Guess we are not running out of oil anytime soon.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Nov 16 2016, 10:59 PM

but... it wants to go up.

so, down, then up furious!

lucky i did not go to toilet break.

if not, missed selling DWTI.

Yeah since Russian energy minister said big chances of for OPEC to agree.

Funny thing was the news hit right after the inventories data.

this oil thing sometimes comes across as some kind of "conspiracy".

yesterday, nigeria militants attack.

this afternoon, iea made a bullish statement.

and just when the negative data comes out, "russian minister comments".

is it all rigged or what?!

think one by one, opec+russia+iea will play this talk it up game non-stop.

if they fail to make a hard deal or fall short on nov 30, man... it will be real fun.

for now, i'm not going to fight it.

after dumping dwti, went uwti.

see what happens next...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 12:15 AM

Right now, it seems to defy logic..

We got API build, EIA build, strong dollar and general market also pulling back, yet crude still holding green.
All on hopes that OPEC+Russia+<some-conspired-rig attack> will work.
Not liking this..

I think it gonna give up. I will cash out half now while ahead.

Finally, it's coming down now a bit..

ya, perhaps the shorts have stopped short covering.

Bad news guys, no more DWTI & UWTI after 8th December.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cr...-300364595.html

crap.

well, there is uco/sco which is 2x.

this pair not so good, much lower volume.

who says opec is becoming irrelevant?

one vague statement from saudi sends oil price +2%.


Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday he was optimistic OPEC would formalise a preliminary oil output deal reached in Algeria in September.


next, iran, iraq, russia can take turns to talk it up further.

never mind the stocks buildup, rig count rise, whatever.

until nov 30.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 09:07 PM

Or.. you guys can join me playing XLE (non-leverage).

If want to leverage, perhaps try ERX/ERY or Options play (for XLE). It isn't quite correlated to Crude but more towards Energy services sector.
Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Good is very crude is down, it is still up because it follows general market.
When it is bad, crude flies up. it stays still or move up little only. Very seldom (but happens at times), crude up - general
market falls, XLE falls as well. But, it's very liquid (large volume with huge participants).

The other one is XOP (non-leverage), or GUSH/DRIP (for leverage). Dunno about its volume.

I think one of the primary complain (perhaps got a pending case with SEC) with both UWTI/DWTI is they have huge tracking errors and result in significant decay over time regardless of up market. Because it attempt to track crude and when it rolls forward, it will make a loss.
Perhaps, the only way to win for both of these leverage is keep shorting both of them.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 18 2016, 12:30 AM

oil... same volatility tonight like last night.

again got out of uwti in time.


now going back in with UCO.

2200 coming (again??)....

pretty boring session...

oil is rangebound.

but good to see goog >770.

time for bed, gudnite.