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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Aug 6 2020, 10:35 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2020, 07:26 PM)
half of rm866 mil?

that's a fairy tale la...

1/5-1/4 more like it.

check the production capacity of the producers...

harta may get there in time but not now, not the rest.
why do people make it as if a biz making rm200mil profit a qtr is so easy...

try selling rojak, pisang goreng, burger, charkoayteow... maybe also can..!! laugh.gif
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wow. did you buy any glove stock?
skty
post Aug 7 2020, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 7 2020, 04:15 PM)
Glove counters will eventually die. I dont think monday QR will be able to hit the required earnings per quarter to meet market consensus of PE25. In fact PE 25 is already high for rational fundmental investors unless their ROE is close to 3 digits

Just your book profit while you still can.

I hope then they die, they will crash other counters together for us to buy cheap cheap biggrin.gif
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I keep topping up spmx. hahaha hopefully more panic sales then I can do more buying.

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 7 2020, 05:53 PM
skty
post Aug 8 2020, 04:58 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 7 2020, 09:46 PM)
-ve with banks, bought them too early, looked solely at fundamentals when the PEs were close to 10 (for long term investment), did not take market sentiment (trading hype, 0 fundamentals decisions, anti-banks) into account. Burned my hand  bye.gif  rclxms.gif

+ve with takaful, but could have bought them at lower price, again I am very bad at technical analysis. Didnt know (still dont know) how to find good entry price so just bought at the price offered (BAD MOVE). Now that I have learnt that, I queue my counters 5-10% lower than its current price. if it hits, i get, if it doesnt, use the money to buy other counters

Considered to topup more, but looking at the market sentiment now, I do not see the rush of topping up.
Waiting for Sept 30, with the hope of gloves selldown (bull-turned-bear market sentiment) will help crashing my counters even more, to top up at even cheaper later biggrin.gif. Others might think that I am psychotic hoping the market will crash the counters I own, but the way I see it is more free discounts.

I considered to buy Genting too. But maybe after 2020, theme park (extra revenue) will be ready in 2H2021. Dont see the rush to buy in now with this market sentiment (trading hype, 0 fundamentals decisions). Might drop more than banks in the shorter term as casino and hospitality revenue wont resume as early as banks (forced loan repayment), which is good biggrin.gif, more cheap stocks to buy later for long term.

I am also queuing for another 4 counters that I see them as fundamentally strong undervalued companies. Still havent hit the price I want, praying for the market crash to help me to get at least 2 of these counters biggrin.gif. If I dont get, can always use to buy others later, no FOMO.
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from this post I can roughly know your problem in investment. You miss the first step before going into FA.

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 7 2020, 10:09 PM)
To draw an analogy from Peter Lynch...

We will spend hours or days doing research when we want to buy a new handphone, laptop or tv. Would we decide in a few minutes to buy a new expensive laptop without doing any proper research? I don’t think so.

But then why do we spend thousands of ringgit to buy a share without knowing anything about the company. Sometimes we don’t even know what business the company is running or whether it is profitable or not.

When we buy a share without doing any research at all, then it is just pure gambling. It is like going to Genting playing blackjack or baccarat. When we lose, we don’t question why we got a small value card and not a ten. That is just the random way the dealer deals us a card.

So, when we goreng a stock with zero valuation, there is no logical reason when it limit up or limit down. It is just a case of more buyers than sellers ala Tulip mania. Just make sure we don’t end up holding the Tulip when the price crash.

I am just blowing water after a long day at work. smile.gif
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biggrin.gif

although there are hundred new posts a day, I basically skip reading them when I see get wording like Tomei, PohKong, DPharma, etc etc.

this can save up my time to filter useful shared information

QUOTE(jvcpcv55 @ Aug 7 2020, 11:01 PM)
quick comparison of the trading P/E (annualized latest quarter results) of peers who have announced their results.

Company: Top Glove / Harta / Careplus / Riverstone
Share price: 28.1 / 19.1 / 4.3 / 14.5
Q PAT RM mil: 348 / 220 / 21 / 138 (riverstone 6M results)
Annualized PAT RM mil: 1392 / 880 / 84 / 276
Market Cap RM bil: 76.1 / 65.5 / 2.3 / 10.8
Trading P/E: 54.7 / 74.4 / 27.6 / 39.1

If Supermax coming quarter results are: 400 / 500
Annualized PAT RM mil: 2000 / 3000
Market Cap RM bil: 31.1
Trading P/E: 19.5 / 15.6
(much cheaper valuation compared to the other 4 peers ranging from 27.6 to 74.4)

alternatively if we assume P/E of 30x and 40x
If Supermax coming quarter results are: 400 / 500
Annualized PAT RM mil: 2000 / 3000
TPs for RM400m PAT: RM35 to RM47 per share
TPs for RM500m PAT: RM44 to RM58 per share
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don't need to guess quarter result.

you can be very accurate if you do homework every single working day.
skty
post Aug 9 2020, 10:52 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Acoen @ Aug 9 2020, 08:05 PM)
Nowadays uni grads, ah chu, ah dog, all hunting penny stocks and hope to gain multifolds fast money... Thanks to those social media actives stock gurus
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the uni grads, ah chu, ah dog might be good investor but hunting penny stock is not investing. hahaha

QUOTE(westernkl @ Aug 9 2020, 09:30 PM)
Should i buy Supermax tomorrow?
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don't buy because I wanna buy more. hahaha

just pump in more money into my CDS account yesterday for monday's action.

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 9 2020, 10:52 PM
skty
post Aug 10 2020, 03:18 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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i keep averaging up on spmx. So nice market today for shopping. haha
skty
post Aug 10 2020, 06:50 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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where are all the doubters? biggrin.gif

do your homework well and you can be very very confident buying when people are panic selling. brows.gif
skty
post Aug 10 2020, 07:46 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 10 2020, 03:18 PM)
i keep averaging up on spmx. So nice market today for shopping. haha
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 10 2020, 06:53 PM)
Agree, thats why i mentioned earlier we must hold tight, dun get suck by public selling pressure  laugh.gif
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today is a fun shopping day for me. So many chance after chance to continue average up when the price dip again and again today. thumbup.gif
skty
post Aug 10 2020, 07:48 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 10 2020, 07:34 PM)
OBM = more price control
OEM = less price control. Harta is heavily on OEM, maybe thats why quarter report cacat
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Harta, was a good buy at 17.xx.

Next QR will BOOM. brows.gif
skty
post Aug 10 2020, 08:00 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 10 2020, 07:51 PM)
Congrats. All thanks to fundamentalist. Wanted to get some but greedy wanted to fish lower.

Hopefully still have chance tmr. If got heavy profit taking like what happened to TG last round.
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don't get me wrong. Fundamental is the very important in my stock analysis. But fundamental is not the first criteria.

Glove stock has fundamental. Tomei and PohKong or any other gold related counter do not. biggrin.gif

Doesn't has fundamental doesn't mean the stock won't increase price. Once people start goreng, a lot of people are happy to follow buy.

But today is a very good example why fundamental is very important because you can be very very confident to keep buying when other people panic selling.

This is what all value investor do. Value investor not necessary must be conservative to always based on previous record (PE, NTA, PB, etc etc) to select stock.

Value investor can spot UNDERVALUED stock whether based on future growth or previous record.


There will always be chance in the market because it cannot be one straight line flying to the sky even in any booming trending stock.

Be patient, wait for correction, buy with safety margin, and then wait.

People always talk about paper profit is not real profit until you sell it. For me, profit is made when you bought the share because you already know the TP and what's your safety margin.

So don't be greedy to continue holding the stock when it reach your TP. But TP can also be revised IF the fundamental allow it. laugh.gif

Peace icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 10 2020, 08:01 PM
skty
post Aug 11 2020, 12:29 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(triple02 @ Aug 10 2020, 11:46 PM)
Same here.
Still a newbie to stocks.

Playing small sum of 10k only..my failsafe margin is always 20% trying to learn slowly before dumping more in

Just playing safe and for the long term, I think when it comes to stocks its always comes to whether you're a trader or investor

Not too bad lah made some cash from playing tech stocks like Fintec..

didnt invest on Glove stocks at all since on the lookout for undervalued stocks,  plus came in too late adi laugh.gif

Best advice I've received is always diversify your stock portfolio and don't follow the crowd, do own research and buy the stocks based  on that,  Always nice to ride the wave though to be honest laugh.gif
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that's the common mistake of investor does.

price high doesn't mean overvalue. In fact, some high price are super undervalued now. biggrin.gif

I remember when I bought Nestle at 60++ people are calling me crazy. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 11 2020, 12:32 AM
skty
post Aug 11 2020, 01:34 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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wow. this morning trend show they really can target retailer.

retailer mindset never change, never learn. hahaha doh.gif
skty
post Aug 11 2020, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(mojo86 @ Aug 11 2020, 05:04 PM)
Glove selling could be due to Putin announcing they have registered the vaccine for covid and is safe to take. Good to keep in mind that they have not tested the vaccine properly yet.

Link
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wow. good news if those vaccines are mass produced and used.

any side effect will just bring higher demand of gloves as non-Covid19 patient also need to be treated. biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 11 2020, 08:35 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 11 2020, 06:23 PM)
Cut loss if you are holding PohKong and Tomei. Retailers are not long-term beneficiary of a hike in gold price. Their recent meteoric rise is a pure bubble. You should know that they are in the business of buying and selling gold. When gold price goes up, yes their sale price goes up, but so does their cost. They only benefit from their old stocks which were bought at lower prices. But in the long run, it evens out. Gold bull run doesn't justify their limit ups.

If you are holding gold miners, I got no advice - I don't know how their business work. Maybe can hold?
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if
1) customer will rush to buy the gold from them during gold high price period, will you? biggrin.gif
2) do majority of customer go there to buy gold for investment or as accessories? If accessories, how much can they buy? biggrin.gif
3) old stock that are bought at lower price can be benefited from the recent price increase, but what if stock finished and they buy new stock at high price, and then suddenly price shot down? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 12 2020, 01:00 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 11 2020, 07:18 PM)
Share with you my story.

"-25% just way too much to cut loss"
"-50% just way too much to cut loss"
"-75% just way too much to cut loss"
"just hold it further and see how the market moves"

And I'm still holding -97% now.  rclxm9.gif

Tuition fee fully paid. Lesson learned - there is no such thing as "too much to cut loss" when the counter is long term bearish.
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never ever cut loss based on paper loss. That's not the way of proper cut loss.

I see people always set drop how many % then cut loss. I laughed. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 11 2020, 09:07 PM)
syok sendir and blow water is penny a dozen. Facts and reality could be hard to swallow.

For reasons, only about 4% of adults in this country have over us$100k net worth.
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4% a bit low, no?

QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 11 2020, 09:14 PM)
Yaya, everyone is looking towards tg qr. Most of us are expecting around 800m to 1bil, which is very achievable actually.

Hopefully it will be a good one  laugh.gif
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hey, the QR will be very bad (I still need time to buy more, don't jack the price up) tongue.gif

QUOTE(Xp3rT @ Aug 11 2020, 10:44 PM)
3) this/now is the only chance for TG to overtake tigerbank as the largest company in bursa (beside tnb and pbb), a great milestone/record although it wont last long  tongue.gif  tongue.gif

fyi TG need to hit RM32-33 to surpass mbb
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tongue.gif
skty
post Aug 13 2020, 12:37 AM

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hi guys, yesterday was a good shopping day!

anyone manage to conquer inner fear and bought in many cheap bargain? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 14 2020, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 14 2020, 10:29 AM)
Topglove may not peak but it will fall after covid. Also, profit might fall next quarter if this quarter's profit already included 1 year's supply of gloves. I.e. Q2 2020 outstanding results is because of hospitals buying 1 year supply of gloves. Hence, they don't need to buy anymore in Q3 2020.

Maybank is doing surprisingly well compared to other banks (e.g. CIMB or Alliance) in Q1 2020, despite IFRS 9 requiring early impairment. It even recorded a higher profit, surpassing the previous quarter.

Note: I'm not arguing who's right. I'm just stating facts and info given so far.
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biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 15 2020, 01:06 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 15 2020, 12:54 AM)
Speaking of shit. You see this pic? If people lockdown 1-3 month panic buy 1 year supply toilet roll, what do you think hospitals will do?
I'm not God but there's a possibility. Only dumb people say 100% won't happen.
user posted image
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invest within your circle of competence.

if you don't know about gloves, it's best to avoid them altogether.

if bank is within your circle of competence, you can buy banks stock and wait for the uptrend in bank sector.

there is no right or wrong.

but don't mislead others by saying something that you thought but without further verification.

those who did homework in gloves stock will at least know what you are saying. currently glove business is so easy to estimate the revenue and net profit is because the production = sold out due to demand is 100%.

And yet people still thinking current glove stock is overvalue/too expensive then go and goreng penny stock that are really overvalue.. This kind of sense of investing one day will be disastrous.
skty
post Aug 15 2020, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 15 2020, 01:23 AM)
Moving forward, gloves asp is unlikely to rise, revenue could only rise with more production line, raw materials and expenses is likely to rise. Basically, quarterly profit is near peak.
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it's very easy to check the ASP.

and your statement is without any justification.

when demand > supply, price will just continue to rise. Always remember that.

and you haven't seen peak. If I tell you, Supermax next quarter result net profit is at least double of current latest quarter net profit, do you believe? hahahaha
skty
post Aug 15 2020, 01:51 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 15 2020, 01:42 AM)
Demand > supply doesn't mean price could rise non stop.
*
if demand > supply doesn't mean price could rise non stop, the first thing is we shouldn't invest in stock market already.

I give an example, if FAANG number of shares is fixed, you trying to say when demand > supply for their shares and the share price won't rise, what for we invest in the stock market? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 15 2020, 02:01 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Aug 15 2020, 01:32 AM)
Many here are emotional invested. Cannot stand a bit of criticism.

Just like few days ago they are jumping into penny stocks as if they found gold. Now all quiet already and ranting about their losses.

Currently, I don't hold any glove or bank stocks. I only hold 2 Malaysian stocks and they are totally unrelated to glove or banking sector.

You should disclose your holdings too. Quite sure you're invested. It's in your self-interest to support them.
*
Don't think it's necessary for me to disclose my holdings.

But if you are interested in glove stock homework, I can suggest you to:

1) study on the countries/hospitals monthly budget for PPE, whether increase or not.
2) study on the supply chain at those countries.
3) study on the warehouse inventory condition at those countries.
4) study on the Covid-19 infection cases progress.
5) study on the vaccine progress and WHO SOP.
6) study on the past records of H1N1, SARS, whatever similar incident that can gives you a clue on market sentiment.
7) study on the raw material cost.

Many people just look at the quarter report, never bother to do homework. Then how can they forecast the future revenue?

Alright. I talk too much. Not going to further touch on this. I still want to slowly accumulate as I waiting to transfer money for it. biggrin.gif

The contra news released too early!

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