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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Aug 18 2020, 12:24 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 18 2020, 11:35 AM)
Such is human nature.

When I want to sell you an Iphone 11 Pro Max at a discounted price of RM2000, you said it is too cheap and it must bad quality. You don't want to buy it. But when I offer you the same Iphone 11 one week later for RM10K, you said it must be good quality since it is so expensive. You rush to buy it.

In the same way, many traders and investors lose money. The only parties who make a profit is Bursa Malaysia and the brokerage firms.

If we cannot break this mind set and vicious cycle, it is difficult for us to make money.
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this won't happen because people easily get to know the RSP of iphone 11 pro max. They will just compare the price of RSP and if its more than RSP, they won't buy it biggrin.gif tongue.gif

you forgot the story of people doing more homework when they buy iphone than when they buy shares? rclxs0.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 18 2020, 12:30 PM
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 01:09 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 18 2020, 12:38 PM)
Hahah, suddenly everyone so spirited on glove counter, topkek.

For those who say gloves will crash, I suggest u to stick to ur game plan by not buying gloves. Else u might kena burn again.
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 18 2020, 12:39 PM)
Always changing game plan is not good, as there are many other counters which can make money too.

Important is do ur homework and be confident with what u have research.
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Well said

QUOTE(ratloverice @ Aug 18 2020, 12:42 PM)
Same. I'm just holding spmx now lol. Not bad to see the loss become smaller and smaller.
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What’s your TP? You wanna hold it forever? Haha

QUOTE(kembayang @ Aug 18 2020, 12:58 PM)
I bought on early July together with Supermx.
HARTA just like a turtle, while supermx crossed HARTA price.
Maybe TP 22? Is that too high?
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TP 22 is too low for Harta. What’s your entry price?

I would buy Harta anytime at the price yesterday but too bad TG and spmx price also drop so by comparison, it’s stupid for me to buy Harta over TG and spmx with the forecast that I have done for those companies.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 01:25 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(kembayang @ Aug 18 2020, 01:14 PM)
Just at 16.4. Any realistic TP suggestion?
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quite good entry price. TP you can make reference to all those IB research report and make your own judgement.

I am not in a position for buy/sell call. biggrin.gif

but reminder is to watch out for TG and spmx bonus split.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 01:44 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 18 2020, 01:34 PM)
When are the splits? Supermax is 4th Sept right? TG one is 5th?
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ex date is 4th right? spmx i think is one day later iirc.

QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 18 2020, 01:34 PM)
Don’t be surprised it will be all red again, retailers are already afraid to step in. It needs big funds to push it up.
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i am praying for it. missed the 21.xx for the batch that I want to buy today. wink.gif

my initial plan to continue topping up with the biggest amount of money is on Friday where I expect to have the biggest price discount.

but today's batch interrupted with this unexpected early rebounce. hopefully price go back down. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 18 2020, 01:46 PM
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Aug 18 2020, 01:51 PM)
Standby first. Maybe just before closing it goes back to red
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i forget this thursday is public holiday so tomorrow might have chance also people take profit. hopefully.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(MakNok @ Aug 18 2020, 02:01 PM)
Harta QR is definitely dissapointing.
it like a Horse running on 1 leg now.

SuperMax have declare fantastic QR...
So can fly like a bird..

If TP and Kossan declare lovely QR.....Chao will follow...lol
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my advice is see Harta investor briefing report instead of QR...

you will be amazed with their new strategy of spot order and the ASP increase...
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 02:12 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(MakNok @ Aug 18 2020, 02:08 PM)
Strategy doesn't mean a thing if QR is disappointing.
In the end...investor want to know the bottomline which is QR lah.

Even TP and Supermax concentrate on spot order as well.

Harta must do more to take market share from TP and SuperMax lo.....only then QR result will sway people to invest in Harta.
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investing is about future cash flow. past result is only for reference.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 02:36 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(MakNok @ Aug 18 2020, 02:18 PM)
Yes..i know that...
4 Top Glove company competing at same time....all using same strategy....

Harta QR dissapointing.
SuperMax QR fantastic.

TopGlove QR....possibly way over the moon.
Kossan QR.....no idea for now.

Yes...investing future cash flow...
Now tell me..

Comparing Harta and SuperMax......
Both company have declare their QR...
Why considering invest in Harta as compare to SuperMax?

What so special about Harta as compare to SuperMax?
Strategy....nothing special lo.

SuperMax now bonus issue 1 to 1 and treasury dividend as well.
Harta?
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that's why I said... don't based on QR

Harta and Kossan are hand tied with existing contract and hence the result of last QR. You have to see the future. Future what's different than the past.

And I never say Harta is better than spmx. Look at my post earlier that I said since spmx and TG also dropping price, it make Harta price drop less attrative.

And always remember something, you need to diversify in investing. Nobody will knows tomorrow TG or spmx factory will be burned down.

spmx QR is fantastic but it's within our expectation for those who know and done their homework.

spmx next QR will be bombastic as many people will expect the current revenue is the max it can go. There is a hint in the QR that many reader will miss it if they don't do critical thinking.

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 18 2020, 02:40 PM
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(summer_86 @ Aug 18 2020, 03:13 PM)
i bought TG at rm25 when drop ..but too bad didnt average down.
Now it went back to my price and earning a bit

A good leason for me , normally , i will cut loss if drop more than 15%, this time i choose to hold

But thinking should i sell now , it's look abnormal.
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UNDERVALUED
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 04:29 PM

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vaccine coming out tomorrow! rolleyes.gif

stop buying gloves and let it drop! cry.gif
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 04:47 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 18 2020, 04:43 PM)
The syndicates played the game very well. Majority retailers sold yesterday.
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weak holders.

tonight might release news Putin has taken the vaccine injection himself or US will go into mass vaccine production on September. tongue.gif

the cycle repeat itself. just like 28 May.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 04:58 PM

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QUOTE(Speedstar1 @ Aug 18 2020, 04:48 PM)
People need to be educated that vaccines are going to require more gloves, not the reverse. Encouraging to know that more people are getting aware of it tho. Hope this round this rise can be sustained
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Weak holders have mindset problems which hardly can change.

You can see the symptom very clearly when the market is crashing and when I say mid year sales, buy buy buy, majority people will say burble will burst.

Now should be sell sell sell, but majority people will buy buy buy.

That's the main difference between the poor and the rich, mindset.

In stock market, you can never be successful if you follow market consensus.

You need to beat market consensus but at the same time you need to be not arrogant to always think you are correct. It sound conflicting and very hard to do.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(citymetro @ Aug 18 2020, 05:00 PM)
Wonder if those who forgo fundamentals and use purely TA can foresee such an outcome with the market these days....
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TA showing oversold as of yesterday. You can never have confidence to buy in if you have no FA.

TA is only acting as support role to FA. Role like what is the resistance (indication for you to sell when the share is overvalue based on FA) or what is the support (indication for you to buy when the share is undervalue based on FA).

But other than FA and TA, there is also CA. This is more to macroeconomic and world economy.

QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 18 2020, 05:00 PM)
Exactly, like the saying says: buy when majority are selling and in fear, and sell when majority are buying and in bullish mood.

Perfectly shown today. Congrats to those who able to topup yesterday at super sales price.
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But I plan this week (5 days to buy, only manage to buy one day which is yesterday) is interrupted. sad.gif But no hard feeling as I understand nobody can time the market. dry.gif

I also miscalculated Thursday as working day. Should have divided my funds into 4 portions instead of 5 portions with Friday the biggest portion then at least yesterday buying will be bigger portion. This is silly technical mistake. doh.gif

QUOTE(Deathscythe@@ @ Aug 18 2020, 05:07 PM)
Yeah, spend time to match is better than dump into a blackholes and wishing sharks to come and rescue. After goreng so much, u got the same feel huh?
That is the problem now. Look at those strong counters, look at EPF investments, they recently acquired a lot of Axiata shares/Digi/Maxis shares.
Maxis i personally feel a good buy now as i was hardly to get match at current price. (matched at RM5.1 after days of trying since it is a small investment).

I was waiting for more 5G news which supposed to launch mid of this year. They might know something from them. Lets see how it goes. Ikan bilis like me, needs some rest. haha...  tongue.gif

Good luck everyone in Glove World~. I will be back if the TG/Harta pricing back to two days ago.  rclxm9.gif
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EPF have a bunch of average fund managers that perform averagely. Don't take EPF investment as guidance.
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 18 2020, 06:33 PM)
Wow. This changes EVERYTHING. With split of 3:1, then 2:1 bonus.... from my estimated calculation, TG might hit 30+ by ex-date, and then another increase of 5+ after the split for the bonus.

Dang. It just made Supermax 2:1 split and 45: 1 look "puny" in comparison.
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i think you confuse already.

bonus issue for TG is 1:2
bonus issue for spmx is 1:1

dividend for spmx is 45:1
dividend for TG not announce yet
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 07:47 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 18 2020, 07:29 PM)
I stand corrected...

The bonus issue by Top Glove and Supermax only potentially enhance the marketability and trading liquidity of the stocks. It makes the stocks seem “cheaper” to attract more retail investors.

Therefore, wouldn’t a dividend payment be better? This is actual cash in hand received by shareholders?
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bonus issues main target is not retail investor.

bonus issues boost up number of shares and therefore make it more difficult to limit up or limit down, which in turn attract the big funds to come in because they can easily buy/sell with big funds without triggering limit up or limit down.

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 18 2020, 07:47 PM
skty
post Aug 18 2020, 11:49 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 18 2020, 08:28 PM)
Thanks for sharing. So bonus issues and share split by itself does nothing and add no value to the shares. We are actually just hoping that the price of the shares will go up after the bonus issue.

So it is back to looking at fundamental and valuation.

Assuming Top Glove and Supermax rallies another 30% by end of August (hey, nothing to stop us from dreaming big, rite?) and reaches our TP, then we should just sell? No point waiting for the bonus issue in September.
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i dont do buy sell call here but in my opinion once the price hit your TP or become overvalue, you should sell.

bonus issue should have already been taken into your consideration of your TP calculation.

QUOTE(B@rt @ Aug 18 2020, 08:51 PM)
thanks for this info.

This means that there is a good up-side potential on TG and Super that their share price will go back up after the split.

On windfall tax, Gov needs money and who better to take money from than the ones making the most out of the current situation?
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i personally don't think they will impose windfall tax for a few number of reasons.

QUOTE(Slipperyslopes @ Aug 18 2020, 10:10 PM)
Initially I also thought that the share split wouldn’t have much effect, but after listening to my parents saying that “cheap” stocks are better because they carry less risk, I now think that the split might actually attract more retailers  shocking.gif
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yes but retailer don't have to bullet to push up price and sustain it.
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 10:25 AM

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today got chance to drop drop drop? thumbup.gif
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 19 2020, 10:26 AM)
You're looking at it. Better topup  whistling.gif
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Yup I am looking forward to it but I don't simply top up. I waiting to top up at the price based on TA.
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 11:25 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 19 2020, 10:58 AM)
Gloves slowdown already, not much action, what a letdown, lol.

Was hoping for some big action today, regardless is high or low action, but didn’t happen.
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yesterday volume doesn't reflect the price surge.

continuous surge like yesterday is unlikely.
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 06:08 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 19 2020, 03:03 PM)
Any idea why still have ppl entering kossan and harta?  hmm.gif
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i bought harta at 14.xx few days ago tongue.gif

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