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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 22 2020, 11:55 AM)
portfolio -2% ouch, that's painful, wiping out some gains but added 2 counters.

how do u guys fare %daily change on the whole portfolio wise?
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Personally, my holdings have solid fundamentals, in the sense that they either are net cash companies or have strong earnings that have been proven by past record. So I’m not too concern with the fluctuation in share price, esp my holding period is 5-10 years and potentially more if the companies continue to show long term profitability. As of now, I’m sitting at -6.38% of paper loss, if that makes you feel better. thumbup.gif

Add on:
From long term investor POV, if your valuation tells you a company is rm15 per share in 10 years,
If you get in at rm2 and out at rm 3, in at rm8 out at rm10, in at rm12 out at rm15, your total gain is rm6, excluding transaction costs and opportunity cost.
Just in case you’ve not noticed, sitting at rm2 to rm15 is rm13 gain per share, except much less transaction cost incurred rclxm9.gif


This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 22 2020, 12:22 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 22 2020, 12:31 PM)
But if you sell at abnormal spike that could drop back low, you will be earning more than a total of RM13 /share
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I thought of this too bro, however we can only say this in hindsight, and we know hindsight is 20/20 haha.. I would’ve all in my watchlist counters in March 19...if.... laugh.gif


MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 22 2020, 02:13 PM)
I'm sitting on -5%.
So, let's chat on solid fundamentals for a change of pace from gloves. What companies are you banking on long term?
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I have 5 main holdings now in my portfolio:
1.) Magni
2.) Public bank
3.) Thong Guan
4.) QL
5.) Supermaxxxxx rclxm9.gif

These counters are imo worth holding for long term,meaning I’ll only buy and add on position, selling not in my book unless fundamental has changed.

Of these 5 counters, I’m still very much concern about QL’s PE ratio with its relative slow growth. Other aspects of the company really tip top thumbup.gif

I’m looking for add on 2-3 more positions,but no particular counters fit my selection criteria with my preferred price now.

How about you bro?
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 22 2020, 12:58 PM)
Doesn't matter if trader or investor. Big money is always in the sitting.

Difficulty is choosing the right stock to sit.
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Yeah bro, to add, entering at the right price on top of choosing the right stock makes it even harder. It’s NOT supposed to be easy, quoting from Charlie Munger. Anyone who tells you otherwise can potentially bring you to Holland tongue.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 22 2020, 02:34 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Dec 22 2020, 02:33 PM)
can i ask you, how do you compare the followings:

MAGNI Personal Goods PRG
PBBANK Banking HLFG
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The MAIN reason I chose Public bank over Hong leong bank is because of it having the lowest gross impaired loan ratio of 0.5,and it’s been very consistent in this. Teh Hong Piow has earned a reputation for his great management in the banking sector.

It’s ironic you see, I didn’t have a very good user experience as a public bank customer because of their strict policy in lending loans and applying their banking products. But as an investor, it is exactly what I’m looking for, a great management and strict policy to ensure continuous earnings even during dire time. We’ve seen this in their recent QR.

Quantitatively speaking,Public bank has a slighltly lower PE(yes I know it’s not a good metric to value a bank),high dividend yield and ROE. Of course you can dig out more of their financial ratios if you would so like to.

On the other hand, I didn’t compare magni tech with prolexus when I made my initial position, I only valued magni on its own, just a quick glance over their increasing EPS,ROE,stable dividend payout,good P/B ratio, and they have NO DEBT, HUGE CASH RESERVE, I was sold on these alone.

The downside? Well.. I didn’t see how this company has a solid plan to expand its business..probably the chairperson doesn’t have the risk appetite to further grow Magni, they’re happy with status quo, every year earn little more than previous year, pay self a portion, the rest give out as dividends.. cukup cukup makan enough la...that’s the impression I got from them.. Also, their only source of income is from Nike,if one day Nike decides to break their bond with Magni,they’re gone case for sure,and I will sell if this happens.

I didn’t really compare Magni with Prolexus before starting a position tbh cuz I was sold by Magni’s solid financial health, and I needed a holding to play that role specifically. So yeah..there you have it smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 22 2020, 04:16 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 22 2020, 02:43 PM)
I run more of a concentration strategy, usually taking larger positions.

1) Magni
2) MyEG

Tracking MASTER and CCK now for entry.
I had a look at QL, and had the exact same concerns you had on PE and growth rate. Had passed on it.

MyEG is the oddball here in terms of fundamentals but I think there is growth potential in the near term.
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Good stuff bro. As long as you know what you’re buying into.
Do keep an eye on QL tho, even though I’m not adding anymore position, but I’m closely monitoring this counter. Dr.Chia Soong Kun is a tip top leader, down to earth, ambitious, it’s all the qualities you want in a leader.
I haven’t seen any public listed counter doing marine products, and able to complement it so well with Family Mart. This franchise is only 4 years since it was brought over to Malaysia. There are already 200 over outlets, with frequent promotion items, getting the attention of mainly younger generations with their Oden, Sofuto ice cream and Bento..I foresee in the future once the outlets operate in full capacity, their share price might then be justifiable. I just hope they don’t do another bonus issue, which I’m quite upset with, due to EPS dilution and further pushing up their already high PE.
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 22 2020, 04:20 PM)
QL's growth is truly wonderful but one must not forget that it's growth is engineered thru purchases of other business. This is their way.
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Yep, that’s the exact reason for Family Mart’s prosperity. Dr.Chia knows very well if they were to start their own frozen food product line they wouldn’t have done it as well as bringing a franchise over. That’s why MyNews’ frozen food products are going downhill over the years as they fail to gain public traction. Knowing what one doesn’t know is an important quality to have in business, than say..those who don’t know what they don’t know.. tongue.gif
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 22 2020, 04:30 PM)
errr..... what????

why so deep la.....
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Aiyo take it as face value la what so hard to understand.. I’m saying it’s important to know what we don’t know then take action accordingly laaaaa

Add on: oh ya, Innovation is the key word. That’s what MyNews and 7-11 don’t have, though recently when I walked into their stores I see some effort in establishing the fast food section...but I wouldn’t buy it still...and no marketing at all haha..sorry if got mynews and 7-11 shareholders here yeee... notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 22 2020, 04:36 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 06:59 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 22 2020, 04:45 PM)
I really liked what I saw with the Family Mart setup and it's traction it is getting in terms of foot traffic.
But that PE really bugs me. Maybe I'm missing a big piece of the puzzle if their main strategy is through acquisitions. Thanks for the info, I'll put in a little more time for analysis on QL.
Oh, one big disclaimer after I saw MedElite's post.
Did you mean PRG or PRL? In your post it was PRG but comparitively Magni is more comparible to PRL.

My analysis was done on PRG so if it is a typo and you meant PRL, please disregard the info!
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You see, in regards to QL’s P/E, on pure quantitative valuation, you’ll come to find its EPS is a mere 0.0983 based on trailing 4Qs, dividend pun chicken figure 0.045 cry.gif NP margin for the poultry sector has been narrowing from approx.7% 3 years ago (correct me if wrong cuz I just vaguely recall only) to 5.6% as of 2020. It would be really depressing if I were to look at these metrics only..

What’s reassuring is, we can see their revenue and net profit has always been increasing for the past 10! years, during March selldown, their business still remained relatively strong compared to other companies across all sectors, share price only took a small dip, then they continued to March forward with share price driven up to almost rm10 before announcing a 1:2 bonus issue..

I mentioned in the past that company valuation is more of an art than science,or combination of both. If you have a rigid criteria to judge if a company is worth investing, you might end up missing a lot of potential growth companies or multi bagger..think apple,alphabet,amazon..their PE are all driven up so high due to expectation on future earnings.

Some people argue that in the current stock market it’s really hard to find a company that fits all the selection criteria of Benjamin Graham, because of all readily info available to everyone on internet. You and I are just one click away from obtaining the same info about a company, so what gives me an edge in discovering a great company earlier than everyone else? You can see it this way, a relatively high PE of a company signifies acknowledgement of people towards the company growth potential. You can invest in a low PE company but if it has no future earning potential, you won’t yield a good return as well.

Having said that, does that mean we should buy into high PE stocks? IMO it really depends...as Howard Mark puts it...it’s not about what we buy, but buying things well.. if you believe a company is worth investing no matter the price to pay for, you might end up not making money even if the company has a strong fundamental.
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 22 2020, 06:08 PM)
maybe. If they willing to pay the 16.5cent amounting to RM11.55 mil for 70mil units of TG  tongue.gif

btw, it's confirmed that EPF has lend their TG share for big sharks to SS.  biggrin.gif
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Bro how did you find out EPF lent TG shares to big sharks ya? What are the implications of that?
MedElite23
post Dec 22 2020, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 22 2020, 07:58 PM)
Ah yes, an opportunity to trade views on PE!

Before I jump into PE and need to detract, would like to say your profit margins of the poultry sector thinning is consistent in my views. In fact, I would say 7% is generous, as I would peg it more on 5%.
That is not to say it is all bad, just a characteristic of the sector. I still have high hopes on some poultry companies, namely CCK.

Onwards to company valuation. I feel it is more of an art, which tries to lend itself some credence by applying some science. If it were a straightforward science, the AI and computer driven analytics would have surpassed human investors a long time ago. But it hasn't happened, and the human hand is still acknowledged to be a critical factor in the selection process. The fancy technicals can come in handy when trying to explain the decision, which is more post than pre. The art is also apparent when 2 people look at the same data set, but can come up with completely different pictures. And this brings us to information analysis.

You brought up a good point referencing Benjamin Graham's principles and the fact that nowadays information is readily available on the internet. That is not to say information assymmetry between people doesn't happen, but it is considerably less than before. It is also a sign of the times, 50 years ago the challenge was information acquisition whereas now it is more information filtering. Us, and the younger generation, needs to come up with better tools to filter the gamut of information we are faced with daily. And probably this applies to how we view PE.

I use PE as an indicator, and anyone using it as a filtering criteria may lose out on the huge growth companies. Yes, there are companies like Apple and Amazon that justify their high PE. And for every Apple, there are a thousand oranges and bananas that do not make the grade. Companies that do live up to a high PE, have to consistently knock it out of the park. They have to dominate their respective spaces and have huge moats. To do this on an annual basis, is exceptional. And these companies are exceptional, and an exception to the norm. Me, wearing an average investor hat instead of a venture capitalist hat, do not think statistically it will happen often. Especially in the small pool that is the KLSE. Hence I prefer to find good local companies with a sustainable business and hopefully some sort of moat, then back them at the right price. Magni, for example as we have just discussed it, is one such. They may not be the exceptional company like Apple, but they are just what I am looking for. One strength I have is time, and not being judged on a quarterly basis like a fund manager so I can wait for time to straighten out the bumps in the road for a company. I'm pretty happy with my 10-15% annual return, which alleviates the pressure of finding a unicorn. A high PE company can still grow and make bigger profits, and there are people hunting for these. This may be one of the cases where we look at the same data set and have different approaches.

I should probably end it here to try to prevent an unreadable wall of text. Hope this makes sense.
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Thank you for taking time to write such a lengthy yet informative reply, I especially like your command of English. This is what this forum is meant for, to exchange valuable views and to add value to fellow investors here thumbup.gif


MedElite23
post Dec 23 2020, 12:17 PM

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Guys,what’s your opinion on the exercise of ESOS?

For those who know, ESOS is an option offered to company employee to buy the company share (by offering additional shares into the ordinary share pool) at a much lower price than market price as a form of remuneration to the employees. The employees are then free to choose whether to buy the company shares at lower than market price to keep it, or postpone the ESOS option until the market price of shares is further raised, then sell off the option and earn the price difference).

The effect of ESOS is dilution of EPS,ROE,DY which is bad for shareholders.

Now if he purpose is to remunerate employees I can understand, but what I see in some companies (I prefer not to name which companies),is that the ESOS is exercised mostly by the board of directors, as if their drawing salary is not huge enough, the lower ranked employees only get a tiny teeny piece of the cake..

Personally I see this as a spoil of integrity of the company management team. Now what do you guys think on this matter? Or have I missed out anything that’s putting the management team in bad light?

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 23 2020, 12:23 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 23 2020, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 23 2020, 12:27 PM)
The effect of ESOS depends on the context which it is implemented. On one hand, you have the dilution which is a negative on the existing shareholder end. On the other, it can also be argued that the dilution is slight and it can be a performance enhancing renumeration tool. It all needs to be looked at in the context of company performance.

Drawing personal examples, I think PBB gave out consistent ESOS up until 2007 if memory serves me right. Yes this has never been a sticking point in any of the AGMs. Why? PBB was performing and shareholders were more than happy to give it the thumbs up.

Now, if a company is losing money hand over fist and still hands out consistent ESOS, shareholders have a right to question their implementation of ESOS. Perhaps it should be put off until the company actually makes some profit. Losing money, then rewarding yourself with more shares will look....awfully mercenary.
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IMHO, if ESOS is exercised by the board of directors themselves, it would’ve defeated the purpose of remuneration the employees. In fact, it becomes a loophole the directors can abuse for personal gain even in the context of a profiting company.

The directors could’ve raised their salaries directly without the need for new share issuances to dilute EPS in the ordinary share pool...then, shareholders will not be negatively affected..

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 23 2020, 01:27 PM
MedElite23
post Dec 23 2020, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 23 2020, 12:58 PM)
You appear to be trolling my favourite stock, Top Glove. .. why la ... why?  laugh.gif 

From  https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3094955
one can see two set of exercise prices. Some are at 1.54 while some had 3.30 pricing.

And then this Mr. Lim Cheng Guan, who is an executive director, who still has 160,200 ESOS shares after his disposal of 200,000 shares of TG at a price of 8.79 and another 30,000 shares at 8.98. And because he has ESOS shares, was he basically exercising at cheap prices and then selling at high prices?

For me, the problem is, these exercise of ESOS shares were happening during the same period when Top Glove went on a crazy buyback binge, averaging close to 100 million of buybacks per day.

So because of the timing of the buyback and the exercise of ESOS and a company director disposing shares, this doesn't bode well for some shareholders la. The company should have known better. If the company was going to engage on a large scale buyback, the boss better lay down the directive that no one, absolutely no one should be doing any esos or selling of shares during this period. If not, accusations will fly that the buyback is done in order its employees or directors could profit by exercising when the share price is high or the absolute worst case is the case of Mr. Lim. People could easily accuse that the share buybacks are conducted so that Mr. Lim could benefit by disposing his shares at a much higher price.

And this is what I have been saying so long. Buybacks is technically good. Who doesn't know? All the info are there in the internet on why buyback is good. But buyback is nothing but buying of shares. Which means if the buyback is badly executed or abused, the minority shareholders are screwed!!
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I ain’t referring to TG for my frustration towards ESOS. By now you should’ve known I don’t hold a position in TG (if you’ve been following my recent posts).

Having said that, if what you mentioned above is true, I would agree with you. Exercising ESOS during SBB may give a bad impression of power abuse for personal gain. Besides, what’s the point of SBB if ESOS is exercised...you basically draw ordinary shares into the treasury pool, then issue new shares into the ordinary share pool again..bringing the share price back to square one (after exercising ESOS of course).

MedElite23
post Dec 27 2020, 02:40 PM

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I for one revel in these glove discussions, it is people like Avfan that makes effort to find out daily SBB, SS of glove counters so glove holders can be benefited, I thank you on behalf on glove holders hahaha notworthy.gif ..keep these discussions coming bros..those who want to discuss about other sectors feel free to do so too,no one is stopping you yo! tongue.gif rclxm9.gif
MedElite23
post Dec 29 2020, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Dec 28 2020, 10:11 PM)
@Medelite23...You must be very busy cause didn't see you popping here. Pls take good care of yourself. Heard situations not good.....
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Hey man, I’m all good no worries, I hope you and family are safe and sound too.

As ya’ll know the cases are surging crazily these days, so there’s more work for us frontliners to do. In fact, our healthcare system is so over burdened now we have to transfer frontliners from other states to come give a helping hand.. sad.gif

And because the rate of infection has exceeded our handling capacity in terms of manpower and resources like hospital beds, DG is mulling home quarantine for those tested positive.

Had certain parties not ‘misuse’ our fund reserve, we could very well afford another round of EMCO given the severity we’re facing..but it seems futile to mention these now..

I’m still wearing my gloves very tightly, if you know what I mean rclxm9.gif (some of our glove holders here have made their stand clearly for justification purpose, and I fully agreed. Only to add, that I would still have parked my money in glove companies for diversification and hedging purpose regardless of short term price movement,the story hasn’t changed much eh..mr.market only priced in for their outlook in coming 2-3 years, but seems to have forgotten what these companies are worth in 10,20-30 years.. eh but I thought market is forward looking?! tongue.gif , and you guys don’t have to follow my POV because our investment horizons may differ)

While I hope the pandemic to end as soon as possible, I don’t see light at the end of tunnel for now.

When the politicians fail to control the spread of disease, at least they can hype up vaccine news to give a (false) sense of hope to their citizens in order to stabilise economy.

Can you imagine the economical impact if PM states in a press conference:”sorry guys, we’ve tried our best but our best still not good enough, we’re not even sure how effective this vaccine shit going to be in curbing the disease as a whole, you’re on your own man, take care bye bye!” shocking.gif rclxub.gif

How long do you think this false illusion can last before reality sets in?

Anyway, I still peek on here when I can, just kinda reverted back to what I’ve been all these while - a silent reader that is biggrin.gif
.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 29 2020, 08:31 AM
MedElite23
post Dec 31 2020, 04:20 PM

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Wishing you guys a happy new year 2021 in advance!

Good or bad happenings shall come to past, let us hope for the best in the coming year and prepare for the worst.

May you and family be blessed with great health and prosperity. thumbup.gif

To those who have earned some money, big or small, congratulations!

To those who didn’t do so well. don’t give up and take it as a learning experience,investing journey is a marathon, you can always do better next year, baby steps. rclxm9.gif

Another humble advice: take whatever you read online with a pinch of salt and have your own independent thinking skills. You never know any of us here sent by IB to stir havoc, #justsayin tongue.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 31 2020, 04:22 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 3 2021, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jan 3 2021, 02:10 PM)
“examination gloves are needed to inject vaccines.”

well if the vaccine really works to prevent transmission, why do you still need glove?

and if it doesn't prevent transmission, why do you even need vaccine?
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To be fair,I think the saying of “need to wear glove when giving vaccination” is redundant. In general, any clinical procedures require medical personnel to put on gloves for hygiene purpose. Depending on hospital/department regulation, one can opt whether to put on gloves or not to, of course sterile procedures would mandate having them put on.

That’s why when you see photos of vaccines being given, some medics have their gloves on some don’t. I facepalm whenever I see ppl comment “see they are not using glove when giving vaccines,so gloves are not needed when giving vaccines.” That’s what I called being ignorant. doh.gif

Ultimately,it doesn’t change the fact that glove demand will go up in tandem with rising demand for clinics procedures,that of course includes vaccination. It’s not only gloves,but that includes syringes, needles, sharp bins, masks, ppe, aprons, trash bags etc. they’re there, it’s up to the medics to decide whether to use them or not.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 3 2021, 02:32 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 3 2021, 02:28 PM

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Ops double posted.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 3 2021, 02:28 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 7 2021, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Jan 7 2021, 12:43 PM)
good buy. Upcoming news might make it surge.  :thumbsup:
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I’ve started averaging down since the start of the dip haha..

Sitting at quite some paper loss..

Looking forward to see when it makes a come back, fundamentally speaking I’m not worried, it’s a net cash company with huge growth potential due to increasing demand for stretch films,trash bags and courier bags(one of their customers is Amazon).

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