Makes sense...I feel like retailer glove holders are in a last man standing battle..the one who managed to hold up the longest wins haha

IMHO,bursa market isn’t thaaaat efficient..in the sense that retailers made up of alooot of uninformed punters who’d give up the shares in their hands easily without thinking deep into why they bought the shares in the first place..perhaps they don’t even know..

If only more people care to do their due diligence before buying a company shares..then we won’t witness so much panic selling and more difficult for IB to press retailers down..

Bendan520, I think I found the person with the crystal ball already!!


On the side note..with so much of hate on glove stocks now..I wonder one day if the glove sectors suddenly receives a catalyst and proceeds with another bull rally like what happened in September..will the now glove haters that claim glove stocks being overrated join the bandwagon? A real test against FOMO haha

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 17 2020, 06:30 PM

While I'm not a believer of TA, I've drawn some simple lines on the price chart of supermax to illustrate TA's shortcomings and how a catalyst can break the "seemingly" obvious chart pattern. (just to clarify I did not disregard it without trying to understand it myself at first)

At a glance the green lines does suggest a downtrend..yes?

1-0

but someone may say: eh..look at the 200 days MA..it's still trending upwards wad..so is the 50 days MA..

1-1

ohh let's compare the 200 MA vs 50 MA then..we might get the idea that a "deadcross" might be forming as both moving averages SEEM to be converging if we just extrapolate both the MA direction..

so.. 2-1

here's why I draw the two red lines..because it will determine whether both MA will cross over each other confirming a downtrend or breakout from there forming an upward trend..

so you may ask..eh how might this happen ah..? 2-2 now? or 3-1? we dont know..

imho a strong catalyst is all we need to breakout..and this is almost impossible without the push from IB/FF..

so after beating around the bush what conclusion can we come out with based on this chart? nothing. I just merely drew some lines and described them based on what i see from the historical chart..it is hardly of any help to make "informed predictions" as someone would like to call it.. (no offense ya, i'm only calling a spade a spade, and i think we can agree to disgaree on this, no right no wrong )

to be fair, i must still give credits to where it's due, TA can still be useful to help determine entry and exit point..

another thing, skty mentioned regarding the accumulation phase by sharks with possible "push" because of some positive sentiments we see from the edge,the stars..i think that is not impossible too.. if accumulation phase were to occur, this is only the beginning of accumulation as we can see from the chart..

in contrary to what someone insinuated, i'd call myself as a contrarian/long term investor, 5-10 years waiting period no problem, most importantly the money that i can afford to lose 100%. with that being said, i'm really excited to see what how where we're heading towards..

as of now, the sentiment the glove sector is indeed pessimistic,but this also opens up opportunity for the contrarians and expendables to flex haha..

the stock market is extremely detached from reality now, as we see breaking record covid cases and mortality in many countries..that being said,who knows there really might be a second rally for glove sectors..? it won't take too long to unfold..

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 17 2020, 09:56 PM

Am I talking to a robovisor? it feels like it tbh lol.. and yas tq kapten obvious

haha, if everything pans out according to what majority of ppl predict, the stock market would be less fun of a place to be in

we can be wrong and that's okay, just admit mistake and move on, it's a good lesson haha..

but until WHO announces the end of covid, I still carry a glimpse of hope as someone would like to call it haha..WITH strong conviction..hey luck plays a role too okeyy



on the side note, do you know how IB's short selling can be disadvantage to retailers? logically, they are just riding the downtrend(on the surface at least) and reap profit from it..?

I don’t know man..while it’s might be true that cw impact might have be exaggerated,since other counters have cw too but we don’t normally attribute the drop in share price with the cw..

But from another perspective,if the number of cw is way more in glove counters than other sector counters, then I’m not so sure if the cw impact is really negligible now..

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 18 2020, 10:09 AM

Yep,I’m more inclined to believe the drop in share price has not much direct correlation with the cw..it’s more like punters have moved on to look for other counters to goreng.. simply put,sentiment not there
One thing I disagree with you though, I think glove counters are very undervalued now.. I know some ppl think ASP will normalise and so will their earnings in the future..

But that’s only tier 1 level of thinking..

As the amount of cash earnings generated over the years of elevated ASP will be more than suffice for the company to automate glove production and expand its production capacity. This will reduce labour cost and increase efficiency and profit margin to overcome normalised ASP.

With heightened healthcare awareness and its already increasing demand of 10% annually even during precovid era, the reduced earnings will probably be less impactful than what people speculate today..and this is only assuming that by 2022 covid has resolved,we don’t have the magic ball so to make any certain assumption is as good as expecting a monkey to throw darts..

When you are sitting on a mountain of cash, many doors of opportunity that were once closed become available, hence to expect glove companies share price to return to pre covid level is simply absurd to say the least..

Just some food for thoughts..

Additional remark:
One more thing, if you have a long investing horizon (by that I mean for yeaarrsss/decades..) and not in urgency to cash out,do you think these booming glove companies will be worth less in 10 years than now? If your answer is yes,don’t you think jumping in and out with transaction cost incurred is just not worth the effort..?

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 18 2020, 11:40 AM

Thanks for pointing that out, I thought that makes sense..
as far as I know, warrant issuer usually will buy the mother shares to hedge against the warrant they offer right..
if that’s the case, theres no point in pressing down the price anymore for example..

X bank issue a cw against y company..
X bank will then buy lots of y company shares at the same time..
So if by expiry date the mother share price is more than the exercised price.
X bank won’t lose much as they have done some hedging..

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 18 2020, 11:33 AM

Oh yeah, after some digestion.. I see the msg skty is trying to convey already, his explanation has made it clear..

You’re right, so in any situation it’s hard for them to lose, if they had not bought substantial amount of mother shares as hedging in BEFOREHAND, do you think they dare to issue call warrants and risk other IB/FF drive up the price and they have no weapon to drive back down the price? Haha..

I realized the points glove haters(sorry for the term used for the lack of a better word) make always remain at a very superficial level that can easily be rebuked if one just scrutinize from practicality POV..

Don’t need to look far, just look at superstitious mentality of our very own anti-vaxxers..you expect them to be receptive towards covid vaccine..no shit Sherlock lol

Besides,how many people are fine with being the white rat of a shortly approved vaccine with questionable efficiency and the adverse effects that come with it..? I for one would step back..

From the info we have,the vaccine requires two separate doses with lasting duration of not more than 1 year, and each dose would cost approximately 20-30usd, how many people can afford it? How many people are compliant enough to get vaccinated annually (conservatively speaking)? When was the last time you took your influenza jab ah?

IMO,vaccination can only do so much to slow down the spread of disease. Another thing to ponder..do you think it’s faster for covid to spread from one person to another or it’s faster for the hands of frontliners to carry out vaccination? If it’s the former, do you still think your “vaccine will destroy glove demand” theory still hold valid? Haha... if it’s the latter, do you think the frontliners need not more gloves to get the job done?

Now come to the business part.. ohh... new supply of gloves outstrips demands eh..? Sorry(no) to break your bubble..in regards to the mushrooming of glove production from smaller cap companies,they will be lagging far behind the big 4’s by the time their plants and equipments are ready for manufacturing..

Having started late and being smaller capped really put them in disadvantage because it’s difficult for them to overcome the issue of scalability and profitability..those who are in the business sector can attest to this, big established companies can simply throw price and play volume to throw you out of business even if it takes to losing money in the process..

I see someone mentioned about the steep rise in glove price and the possible of changing glove supplier..? This mindset only happens when you buy vege in the market..from the scale of a nation,when the demand is there and supply is relatively scarce, money is never the first consideration factor.. just check how many tonnes of vaccines Canada reserved relative to the number of population in the country lol..

All in all, Covid19 pandemic is a great opportunity for solid companies to capitalize on their strength to eliminate smaller capped companies who simply can’t sustain the business..

I hope this gives a more comprehensive view regarding the concern of glove production and demand in coming years..just in case if it’s not obvious enough from my username,I’m a covid frontliner if it helps to boost my credibility..

If you have a solid substantiation to your words, I’m all ears..it’s dull-witted to keep on throwing out quotes and meaningless words like a parrot

2 layers only

I only intended to debunk the shits that you throw out only

Bon appetitz yo

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 18 2020, 02:43 PM

Eh bro did I overlook your reply? Or perhaps you were replying nautica99 instead?

Too many replies earlier I only managed to scroll back to your reply regarding the sustainability of profitability..

Well, I have no answers to that man got to be frank,ppl who work in the glove sector might have better insights than us..

Btw my apologies if I sounded tactless in my earlier reply as I wasn’t pin pointing anyone just merely focusing on the subject of discussion

We wear 2 layers of gloves, inner one to protect ourselves should the outer layer breaks.

As to frequency of change, there’s no strict regulation, the gloves are there to be replaced should we feel the outer layer is dirty.. sometimes I replace them after swabbing every few patients if I’m hardworking enough

Latex gloves feel thinner, sometimes I accidentally tear them in the process of wearing haha..

I think nitrile is used more in the private sector, as far as I know KKM uses mostly latex gloves cuz it’s cost effective..in non-sterile condition we use non powdered latex, in OT when sterility is required,we use sealed and powdered one..

I say latex gloves feel thinner because I’ve used nitrile one in private setting as my family member works in the healthcare sector too..

I read the comments there quite often,just for entertainment sake haha..once in awhile I’ll come across
some insightful point of view too..

The last dive prior to market closing though..

Can explain why do you say their OBM model didn’t work and profit was bad?




Its financial highlight indicate otherwise..

well, imo EPS does not equal to profitability..

I wish business valuation was as easy as solely comparing eps and hence we can conveniently turn a blind eye to qualitative and other quantitative metrics.

to add:
it's rather inaccurate to judge if a business is profitable based on eps.

take for example:
company x earns 10mil/year, 100mil outstanding shares, eps: 10 cents.
company y earns 5 mil/year, 25mil outstanding shares, eps: 20 cents.

based on above vignettes, we can deduce that company y has higher eps, but it is not as profitable as company x.

with that being said, supermax's earnings have been consistently higher than kossan,(although the sheer number of outstanding shares in spmax has diluted its eps) and that's one of the reasons why kossan isn't the first two companies that are brought up when glove companies are discussed.

nevertheless, eps is still a VERY important metric to look at, as shareholders we'll never say no to a bigger piece of the pie haha..

but hey you do you..

also... you did not clarify how OBM is bad for supermax when compared to the other taiko's...hope to learn from you

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Dec 19 2020, 05:48 AM