Wow, that's quite a distance to be averaging down from.

Anyway.... just sharing some thoughts....

I was looking back at some of those notes... esp this one...



That's TG own notes...

Now ... that TG put out the Bloomberg consensus on PAT of 10.2 billion... is rather telling when I thought about it over when I went lim teh ....

Their Q1 PAT was 2.3 billion. Which means, the company/management is accepting that TG would turn in a profit of 10.2 - 2.3  = 7.9 billion for the rest of the 3 remaining quarters of 2021  Ahem! those last few words is worth noting. Only 3 quarters left in fy 2021 ... which is why ... you cannot blame/you have to accept why the analysts are already basing their Toilet Paper prices for TG based on 2022 estimates already. It is what it is. Industry standard. Will come back to that....

Now 7.9 PAT for 3 quarters... on average, that's only 2.6 billion per quarter for the next 3 quarters.

Is it mistake from the company? Did they bother to check the implication of what those numbers are saying? Or perhaps it's yet another glitch from the company...

Now for the investor/punter/trader or what not ..... if TG only turns in a PAT of 2.6 billion ....  that's about a 10% growth only on a q-q basis. Would that not be considered a disappointing given the boom boom numbers it has been reporting? and that the next 2 quarters of fy 2021 will see flat earnings at 2.6 billion....

That's not too encouraging, isn't it?

Think about that la........................

Now back to the forward earnings... ie... Toilet Paper prices based on 2022 numbers.

CIMB had already started it last month. Yes, they did ...



and of course, yesterday, I showed that TA is also doing such reference



What does this mean? Think about it .....

Isn't it saying fy 2021 doesn't even matter anymore?

Yup, this is the market... pricing the stock based on forward earnings.

TG Q1 is already gone.. only 3 quarters left for the year.... hence focus is now on 2022 numbers.

Which means. ..... no matter what boom boom numbers TG reports next .... it won't have much impact....

and the sad thing ... if TG reports a lackluster/flat set of profits the next Q ... the stock could be hit...

It's sad/unfortunate/or whatever you wanna call it/ kind of situation.

Everything is priced forward .... it is what it is....
and last but not least.... this one.... it's from TG itself



2 interesting things from that...

1. CLSA ....  sell recommendation.  CLSA was one of the big bulls on TG. First to call a TP of rm28 on TG in July .... The sell recommendation was made on 23 Nov 2020.

2. The earnings estimate/trend . What can be seen is the clear earnings trend..

Big, big profits in 2021 .... but huge deciline in profits for 2022.

23 scientist from different research houses all making the same set of estimates....
Now think about this...

Can they all be wrong?

If they are not wrong.... think about it ..... the shorties. Does this or does this not explain why so many were willing to short TG?
Yeah .... I own no TG shares... and I don't intend to buy any ... it doesn't matter if I am right or wrong... it's just mere sharing of info and some light workout for my fat fingers... and yeah... last I check... this is a stock market discussion thread

I've checked their financial statements and looks good for me.
Any reason or news why tguan stock price keep falling recently?

Eh? Let me share with you...

1. The first screen shot... that was posted in this thread. (In fact I read it wrongly ...cos as itself it was so confusing that TG planted the potential dividend return with in between its reason to do buybacks)

2. CIMB research? I have account.

3. TA Securities? It's available on Bursa website

4. The last screenshot was from TG itself. A friend forwarded to me. LOL!

Anyway... knowing how to search for info is important.... for example... if I want those DBS or UOB reports in pdf... lol... i know where to access it....
Me? I am a trader.

No demand, downtrend. Same for any other stocks. Until it reaches traders' support line or value investors FA entry, it will continue to drop.

Cause momentum traders already ran. Prolly went to crypto/tech counters. When crypto/tech bursts, maybe we will have the fund channeling back.

My FA entry for Tguan is 1.7-1.87. PRAY

Forward PE (based on projecte NP) vs historical PE.
Margin of safety

TGuan ah?



why nobody ask me for 3 kupang comments?

Today my unrealized profit on Bursa portfolio drop around close to 10% at peak point , even though index less than 1% 

Anyway my money already up to 80% in equities, so yeah if there is a big crash i'm going to be clutching on bags.

Currently as of writing it is around 5% of profit erosion. Slowly recovering hopefully 

How's your Maybank?
Anyway, TGuan, for me, oil is the main factor....  I think u know la... but for company like TGuan, the initial higher oil prices is actually good for TGuan cos it does a have good management of its raw material inventory...blah blah blah... but such profits cannot sustain when its raw materials is based on the higher oil prices.
This one is actually one of the miss. Can't win it all.

Back in 2019... it was indeed in my watch list... 2 quarters of profit recovery ... and from a fundamental point of view... it should be worth a trade... but... it never showed......

the closest it came for me was end Oct 2019 ....



Around 2.80++ ..... was thinking ..... but hesitated ... cos it was out of my comfort setup ....

Next thing u know.... it gapped up following a very strong 2019 Q3 numbers... didn't feel like chasing....



And then of course ... March 2020 .... came.

This one was actually one of my alternate choice to whack ..... but since my mini water pistol, which only had one shot .... I gave this one a miss.

A really nice winner if one had jumped into since March...

meanwhile ...the earnings since then...



The yellow one... was the earnings that popped in Nov 2019... but since then ..... earnings although good but... isn't really booming....

and oil prices.... has been up for a while already...

so moving forward... oil prices should eat into TGuan profitabilities already...

Ya... chart had to be reconstructed/adjusted for the recent bonus issue.... which now looks like this....


the main up trend from March 2020 is now gone ....

Prior to retailer influx my exposure to bursa is less than 30% from total investment.

Now i think its 50-50 between local and foreign. The retail money pouring in to bursa has really made it really vibrant especially the non top 30 composite counters benefit quite abit

More volatility and more irrationality. This is across the board even in US. You see very irrational situation like bankrupt share purchases like hertz or even purchases into fundamentally flawed company like Nikola.

This new trend had confused the established fund managers for awhile, but i think they have managed to adapt now. Retail investor and their counters volatility as well as cult buying is the new normal now.

I am actually very worried... Something doesnt feel right

Feel like leaving the market for a year or two until everything normalizes.

I am waiting. haha.

one more round of buying of the range that I don't have yet will bring my average to a very undervalued price. Then I can just close eye and wait for big angpau already.

this round of buying will be the highest % of the money I allocated for glove.
although I know the news will make it surge, I also don't buy in one shot with the money allocated for it.

nobody can know exact when it will hit bottom, just make sure you buy in batches. Cannot earn all.  :thumbsup:

not that this is stock discussion.
but since you mentioned it.

regarding new strain, its not uncommon, even influenza have new strains and keep evolving. each year, the vaccine is updated to include new strains.
so its not uncommon for a vaccine to not be effective on new strains.

covid is not very dissimilar with influenza (if you minus out the impact, harm, etc to the body).

Glove stocks are back in action.

Unfortunately, it seems that most retailers have already been killed off by the previous bloodbath. No much excitement in this forum about the rising prices compared to last year.

ya but how do you interpret the earning into value of the company?

How does this drive the stocks up? Sorry I can't understand