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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:37 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 7 2020, 03:58 PM)
Looks like be keeping my Supermax and TG shares for a while now....
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Bro, you can always cut loss... Dont switch from a momentum trader to along term investor in counters that cannot go for long term play...

Dont lock you money there and see it dwindling, Lock your money there without doing anything is called opportunity cost, you can use that money to make more money elsewhere (e.g. short FKLI if you think the KLCI will drop more). One of the forumers here kept promoting about opportunity cost, he is not wrong. Dont lock you money in a downtrend counter, maximize your gain investing somewhere else. Even back into FD is better than seeing you money slowly degrading

The chances of rebounding will be getting lesser and lesser when we are getting closer to the 1st loan repayment deadline (31 Oct). But I think most people will get out before 30 Sept.

QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Sep 7 2020, 04:20 PM)
It is not promotion time. It is merely falling back to its fair value. Don't catch the falling knives
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Up. Still far far away from its fair value, counting it using pre-covid revenue growth and profit margin.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 7 2020, 04:39 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:40 PM

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Can try day trade for rebound if the big4 gloves counters drop more than 10% in a day.

Buy at -12%, sell when go back up 5%. If you lose money, dont blame me
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 04:48 PM)
DALIAN, China -- Sinovac Biotech has begun manufacturing a coronavirus vaccine candidate on a pilot basis, as China shifts toward the mass production stage in the global immunization race.

Production has started at a new plant in Beijing with an annual capacity of roughly 300 million doses. Sinovac has agreed to supply 40 million doses to Bio Farma, an Indonesian state-owned company, between November and March. Sinovac started building the factory in late March and finished the project in July.

The Chinese company began Phase 3 clinical trials for its vaccine candidate in Indonesia this month and in Brazil during July.

Fellow Chinese drugmaker CanSino Biologics will build a plant for its coronavirus vaccine candidate next to an existing factory in the city of Tianjin. The facility is slated to begin operation next year with an annual capacity of 100 million to 200 million doses.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavir...ccine-candidate

China in July approved the emergency use of COVID-19 vaccines involving military and front line health care workers. State-owned pharmaceutical company Sinopharm Group took the lead by offering free injections while ramping up production output of its COVID-19 vaccine to 300 million doses annually, from 200 million doses.

Sinopharm had reportedly said it hoped to commercialize its vaccines by the end of 2020, pricing them at less than 1,000 yuan ($147) for two doses.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavir...accine-to-staff
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Whatever you do when you see vaccine news, DO NOT INVEST in malaysia pharma counters... 0 fundamentals.. Trading/goreng go ahead, remember to cut loss if things turn sour dont turn into a long term investor in vaccine counters
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:52 PM

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https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/541609

Malaysia might start following US footsteps, BNM might start buying bonds
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 7 2020, 04:53 PM)
Good. Good for stock market.

Come liquidity come come.
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They must have realized that retailers started pulling out funds ahead of moratorium
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Sep 7 2020, 04:52 PM)
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/541609

Malaysia might start following US footsteps, BNM might start buying bonds
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When they start doing that, you guys might want to try to long FKLI (instead of short)
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 04:58 PM)
Mean myr will depreciate against usd, sgd, jpy, cny, etc.
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Sad to see that MYR keeps getting eroded, low pay salary in MY, new properties taken up by foreigners instead of locals... Very harsh for malaysians sad.gif
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:05 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 7 2020, 05:00 PM)
There has been not much point putting money in FD and top graded bonds since the GFC. Its not the case of asset prices are going up. Its the case of money devaluing - all around the world.

Buy stuff... whether its shares, properties, cryptocurrencies... whatever... Buy stuff... to protect your wealth.
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Properties in Malaysia are going south too... BNM says we are now at deflation -1.7%, money is not losing value (maybe we dont print as frequently and as much like the US)
For shares, a lot of the long term counters might still be going south for now, can wait a bit longer for economic data
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 7 2020, 05:04 PM)
The trick is to get the aforementioned assets before the foreigners. Leave just enough for emergency and bargain hunting.

Hedge your MYR.
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You cant... Malaysians cant afford it. KLCC new properties 90% uptake rate are foreigners. A lot of Malaysians who bought ended up auctioning their properties because our salary is just too low

Maybe it does not apply to some rich and powerful people here. But it certainly applies to the general public

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 7 2020, 05:07 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 7 2020, 05:07 PM)
Don't be "a lot of Malaysians"...
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You are certainly right, but with most Malaysians' limited power to buy properties, the HIGHLY INFLATED properties prices now are ONLY supported by foreigners. Can expect them to go south for quite some time, until the purchasing ability and the property price equilibrium normalizes.
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post Sep 7 2020, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(crystalclearlah @ Sep 7 2020, 05:12 PM)
Not trying to offend, i'm just curious where did you get the 90% figure. Is it via the land office/publication/survey?
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80% my bad

@icemanfx. Where did you get the uptake rate for projects? I remember seeing one for Picasso residence from your sharing, and another few ones that I have forgotten

I pmed him/her to teach me to get those data, but this man/woman does not want teach me how to get those data...

http://idaman2.kpkt.gov.my:8888/idv5/98_eH...SSO%20RESIDENCE

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 7 2020, 05:17 PM
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 7 2020, 05:19 PM)
http://idaman2.kpkt.gov.my:8888/idv5/98_eH...SSO%20RESIDENCE]http://idaman2.kpkt.gov.my:8888/idv5/98_eH...SSO%20RESIDENCE

Available from kpkt
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Bro, can you share a link where I can search for the uptake rate for specific properties. So I can do my study better.

KPKT under perumahan section, I cant find the link
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Sep 7 2020, 05:24 PM)
If you look at Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, you can see that property prices can already go beyond the reach of ordinary citizens, and still continue to skyrocket. Of course it may crash one day, some say it is already crashing in some places.

But let me share with you my opinion... I used to also believe that property prices will always go back to equilibrium, but I think otherwise now. I still believe in the long term, supply and demand will reach equilibrium. However, rather than in the form of price, the new equilibrium can be in the form of property becoming smaller, being launched further away from the city, being purchased at a later age, being purchased only with the support of parents, or not being purchased at all by a larger proportion of citizens. Equilibrium will definitely be achieved, but not necessarily in the form of price. This has always been the case. Norms change over time.

Just my 2 cents. But if BNM start doing QE, I will not want to hold a lot of cash.
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Agreed, but right now, supply is still much higher than demand (according to my study). I personally think, property prices can drop more in short term with the help of few combos below
1. With bad economy condition, MOST people would not want extra burden
2. Possible NPL, sudden minor spike in supply
3. Vacancy tax to be imposed soon might trigger a knee jerk drop in the prices, with possible panic sell by developers.

What we havent have now is land hoarding tax. Hope gomen will impost that soon
HereToLearn
post Sep 7 2020, 07:19 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 7 2020, 06:46 PM)
Seeing what you wrote.... I have an idea who are the disciples in here......
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The pot calling the kettle black
HereToLearn
post Sep 8 2020, 10:30 AM

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Since the gloves are either going sidelines or south, there is no point buying them now. Might as well wait for TG QR. If you think QR outperform, only buy also not late
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post Sep 8 2020, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(Deathscythe@@ @ Sep 8 2020, 10:54 AM)
Or they slowly dispose their shares instead of direct dump making investors hoping it will rebound?
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Moratorium coming soon man, no one wants to hold volatile retailers driven stocks. But disposing happens much earlier than my expectations.

QUOTE(Deathscythe@@ @ Sep 8 2020, 10:58 AM)
2 more days is the - OPR announcement right? 10th Sept.. Hmm.. This week seems hard to go.
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Yeah, 11 Sept is employment data. Die die wait
HereToLearn
post Sep 8 2020, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(enixcv123 @ Sep 8 2020, 10:56 AM)
KLCI got pull down again
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Thats why I told you guys to short the FKLI (if you guys have the guts), good money can be made there.
Instead of stuck at counters that cannot go for long term play. Forgot who was the guy again, made a very good point there on opportunity cost. Dont die die hold down-trending counters, good money can be made elsewhere

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Sep 8 2020, 11:05 AM
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post Sep 8 2020, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Sep 8 2020, 11:04 AM)
Doubt it. If they wanted to dump, they would have done it immediately rather than slowly doing it cent by cent
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Bro if you sell batches by batches without triggering big drop, you can get more profit.

HereToLearn
post Sep 8 2020, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(crystalclearlah @ Sep 8 2020, 11:15 AM)
Good point. How to short?
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JPEX securities let you trade futures. Open account with them
HereToLearn
post Sep 8 2020, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Sep 8 2020, 11:18 AM)
Seems like the only way to make money on Bursa
1. Pay money for stock gurus to give you the most random tips about the most obscure companies (penny stocks)
2. Recovery plays (Blue chips that have underperformed)
3. If you work at the company and have insider information.
I might get downvoted again but Bursa is full of uneducated traders.

There is a slim chance of making money doing any due diligence and research about a company. Malaysian economy is terrible. Each year we see Malaysian talents flocking to countries with better currencies and job opportunities, especially engineering graduates from my observation with seniors. You say, tech/engineering/manufacturing companies in Malaysia have a great chance of achieving good YoY growth and generate higher revenue consistently each year? Possibly, provided that they are able to beat competition from countries that have much stronger foundation in the field and way better support and fundings than Malaysian companies.
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Bro, another way is to short the FKLI index, KLCI carried by 2 gloves since March, drop to 1400 is achievable if they can continue to normalize

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