the question that needed to answer is "why despite the monopolistic business, why has the stock failed the past 5 years?"

quick check on Tenaga earnings would be useful.

2015 -- 6.118 Billion
2016 -- 7.368 Billion
2017 -- 6.904 Billion
2018 -- changed calendar year ...    so I use profit of 3.724 Bil (ignoring 4 months profit of 2.756 Billion)
2019 -- 4.529 Billion
2020 -- 3.593 Billion
2021 -- 3.662 Billion

Which clearly shows that Tenaga earnings had declined rapidly since 2018. Which coincided with Tenaga in 2018 was high as 16++

Today? 8.30

What gives?

Firstly look at Tenaga monopolistic business. As a utility company, government (and politics), Tenaga's pricing is capped.

Okay, there's more usage in energy. Last fiscal, despite covid, Tenaga's revenue managed to increase 20% but the increase is negated by the increase in operating costs etc etc, which meant Tenaga's net profit were flattish at 3.662 billion.

Same thing for the 1st quarter of the current fiscal year. Revenue increased by 35% but operating cost increased by 43%.

Yup. This is what we are seeing where the company pricing is fixed but not the cost. (rising fuel costs is a massive no no for Tenaga)

And despite, the increase in usage, it's not all smooth sailing. Receivables had increased from 10 billion to 14 billion. A worrying factor which possibly indicates that collection is NOT EASY. If slow paying consumers, is understandable but what if the main increase comes from business shutting down? That will be tough job collecting.

And then despite being a monopoly business, Tenaga's cash flow has been poor. I remember Tenaga's cash balances used to be closed to 10 billion. Yup plenty of cash. But its most recent Q1, Tenaga's cash was only roughly 4.7 billion. 

Yes, that's all the past. That's what basically ailing Tenaga.

What's next?

Electricity prices are still fixed. Yeah, yeah, there are talks that Tenaga might be allowed to increase its tariffs.

Which means any purchase of Tenaga's shares is NOTHING but speculation that it will be allowed to increase its tariffs. But will it?

Big money question. 

Any decision to increase tariff rates will most likely to piss off the rakyat, more so when inflation is spiraling out of control.  (some) politicians will surely argue that why allow Tenaga raise rates? Tenaga is cash rich and is still making very good yearly profit of 3 billion plus. Yup, let Tenaga's profits be sacrificed for the Keluarga Malaysia sake.

And without the increase in electricity tariffs, unfortunately Tenaga's cost is going to be a burden .... (which means the past mediocre earnings would most likely to continue and could even see a possible decline in future earnings)

we have the rising fuel costs issue (which I don't see going down soon) .... and not to forget Tenaga has more than 10 billion in foreign debts (mostly USD too!  )

and yeah.... not forgetting the legacy IPP issue ( https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/387795 )
so consider the following issue too now....
market has been terrible...
the smarter ones are rubbing their hands in glee for those generational opportunity to win couple of baggers.
how many would want to put it into Tenaga, who's looking like a terribly handicapped stock?
simply put, in betting terms, is Tenaga looking like a one in a lifetime opportunity now, where one will put their house down to bet on the stock?
and then dividends...

best put this way...

For fy 2019, Tenaga dished out 100sen in dividends (yeah that's when ppl screamed out loud for dividend stocks) (and yeah it included a special dividend)

but last fiscal year, tenaga dished out only 40sen.

40 sen compared to 100 sen. 

Which is why those who invested in Tenaga since 2018, is losing money!
Biggest thing to note... dividends is never fixed. Dividends can increase but dividends can indeed shrink drastically too.