Leaving the past / historical data behind, lets future look at whats ahead for malaysia..... assumption that its still the only monopolistic business in malaysia.... do u think it will grow with all of us using so much energy everyday? from your airconds, multiple gadgets, etc.... who else if not Tenaga to supply us electricity? Maybe u can provide another same size player as Tenaga? i hear crickets..... Tenaga share price may be down now.... but nothing last forever .... then again i can only guesstimate that tenaga will rise again.... welcome to share ur tots.

Of course, the past/historical data NEVER does guarantee the future but if one does not understand the past, how would one gauge the future?

And yet again... the question that needed to answer is "why despite the monopolistic business, why has the stock failed the past 5 years?"

the question that needed to answer is "why despite the monopolistic business, why has the stock failed the past 5 years?"

quick check on Tenaga earnings would be useful.

2015 -- 6.118 Billion
2016 -- 7.368 Billion
2017 -- 6.904 Billion
2018 -- changed calendar year ... so I use profit of 3.724 Bil (ignoring 4 months profit of 2.756 Billion)
2019 -- 4.529 Billion
2020 -- 3.593 Billion
2021 -- 3.662 Billion

Which clearly shows that Tenaga earnings had declined rapidly since 2018. Which coincided with Tenaga in 2018 was high as 16++

Today? 8.30

What gives?

Firstly look at Tenaga monopolistic business. As a utility company, government (and politics), Tenaga's pricing is capped.

Okay, there's more usage in energy. Last fiscal, despite covid, Tenaga's revenue managed to increase 20% but the increase is negated by the increase in operating costs etc etc, which meant Tenaga's net profit were flattish at 3.662 billion.

Same thing for the 1st quarter of the current fiscal year. Revenue increased by 35% but operating cost increased by 43%.

Yup. This is what we are seeing where the company pricing is fixed but not the cost. (rising fuel costs is a massive no no for Tenaga)

And despite, the increase in usage, it's not all smooth sailing. Receivables had increased from 10 billion to 14 billion. A worrying factor which possibly indicates that collection is NOT EASY. If slow paying consumers, is understandable but what if the main increase comes from business shutting down? That will be tough job collecting.

And then despite being a monopoly business, Tenaga's cash flow has been poor. I remember Tenaga's cash balances used to be closed to 10 billion. Yup plenty of cash. But its most recent Q1, Tenaga's cash was only roughly 4.7 billion.

Yes, that's all the past. That's what basically ailing Tenaga.

What's next?

Electricity prices are still fixed. Yeah, yeah, there are talks that Tenaga might be allowed to increase its tariffs.

Which means any purchase of Tenaga's shares is NOTHING but speculation that it will be allowed to increase its tariffs. But will it?

Big money question.

Any decision to increase tariff rates will most likely to piss off the rakyat, more so when inflation is spiraling out of control. (some) politicians will surely argue that why allow Tenaga raise rates? Tenaga is cash rich and is still making very good yearly profit of 3 billion plus. Yup, let Tenaga's profits be sacrificed for the Keluarga Malaysia sake.

And without the increase in electricity tariffs, unfortunately Tenaga's cost is going to be a burden .... (which means the past mediocre earnings would most likely to continue and could even see a possible decline in future earnings)

we have the rising fuel costs issue (which I don't see going down soon) .... and not to forget Tenaga has more than 10 billion in foreign debts (mostly USD too! )

and yeah.... not forgetting the legacy IPP issue ( https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/387795 )



so consider the following issue too now....
market has been terrible...
the smarter ones are rubbing their hands in glee for those generational opportunity to win couple of baggers.
how many would want to put it into Tenaga, who's looking like a terribly handicapped stock?
simply put, in betting terms, is Tenaga looking like a one in a lifetime opportunity now, where one will put their house down to bet on the stock?




and then dividends...

best put this way...

For fy 2019, Tenaga dished out 100sen in dividends (yeah that's when ppl screamed out loud for dividend stocks) (and yeah it included a special dividend)

but last fiscal year, tenaga dished out only 40sen.

40 sen compared to 100 sen.

Which is why those who invested in Tenaga since 2018, is losing money!


Biggest thing to note... dividends is never fixed. Dividends can increase but dividends can indeed shrink drastically too.

I wont buy grab even if its drowning in blood not just knee deep.

But then this is the time we can take our time to slowly find the next google, apple, do research use their services/product and create long position without the fomos crowd driving up prices.

At just over $20,000, around half of all Bitcoin wallets were still sitting on profits, according to an analysis by the Columbia Business School. Mr. Farrokhnia said 61 percent of the addresses had not sold in the last 12 months, showing that many people bought into it to hold it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/technolo...coin-20000.html

Like meme stocks, losses was mostly incurred by late comers.

Good sharing, but the 2 key words here r political & monopoly, these 2 words always has grey areas in them.... which is not shown publically yet the public alredi knows it.... same goes to SSPN, MAS, Petronas,.... the public only get to see the portion u r allowed to see.... yadah yadah... yes they r listed, etc... but once they r politically linked.... then u know i know lar.... this is MALAYSIA maaa

A monopoly does not equate to rising profits. A monopoly is a moat that protects a company from going out of business assuming the industry is still relevent.
The company's profits is still dependent on market factors. And a company with links to a third world mentality government and substandard management? That is Tenaga. Your argument that Tenaga has 2 keywords which is 'monopoly' and 'political' already sets the case study. It is there to fund the political elite primarily, not your own pockets as an investor. If anything investors have been silently bleeding money on Tenaga while maintaining the pulbic illusion that it is a solid long term investment.

Being a listed company, the numbers are there for all to see. Look at that Balance Sheet. Does that look like a healthy company which is ripe for investment?
Everyone sees the same numbers. But individually we draw different conclusions.

Like I said...

'Electricity prices are still fixed. Yeah, yeah, there are talks that Tenaga might be allowed to increase its tariffs.

Which means any purchase of Tenaga's shares is NOTHING but speculation that it will be allowed to increase its tariffs. But will it?

Big money question."


So if you think it's worth a speculation, go ahead. I am not one that will stop you. Ya.

However, as a matter of personal interest and self-learning purpose, I would just put a marker here to gauge my decision makings. 'Buy Tenaga at 8.30'.

I would like to see the end result say 6 months down the road. With me taking the 'NO BET' stance. (And if I were to trade it, I would rather wait for actual confirmation of news - definitely not based on articles which are based on unknown sources)



And ya, there are several types of monopolistic business. Monopolistic utility business with capped ceiling prices and no cap on its expenses doesn't sound sexy to me. Expenses always do increase and all it takes is bad management and external factors such as politics to drag it down further.....

This article not bad for a read.

https://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?dat...Monopoly-Stocks

Never liked Tenaga because no pricing power.

Another monopoly like that is Bursa (1818), also can't increase prices.

Look at Tenaga today. Went up slightly in the morning and then sudden dip.
Investors all reading this thread today?

have cut some shares to raise cash. If PBB drops below RM4, I'm gonna grab this opportunity to buy & hold. Waiting with cash is really important, esp. in current bear market.

of all banks, i agree PBB is the strongest

but there is so much more counters that can offer more than 5% dividend yield

their dividend yield dropped a lot from year 2020 onwards:
https://dividends.my/pbbank-1295/

prefer maybank higher dividend yield and some steady growth.

all the board of directors in PBB are old.. they should hire young successors and not keep remain a bunch of old folks:
https://www.publicbankgroup.com/About-Us/Bo...rd-of-Directors

which explains why they have less emphasis on tech in their banking systems.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Jun 21 2022, 11:08 AM

PBBank's DY 'dropped' a lot from 2020 because of a 4:1 bonus issue.

Maybank's dividend? Hmmm......

Do you know that if an investor bought Maybank for it's dividends FIVE years ago based on the average traded price (ie using the mid price of the year high and year low) and held it till today, despite HIGHER DIVIDEND YIELD, the the investor would have underperformed the KWSP investor.

If you play for peanuts, all you will get is peanuts.

Law of peanuts according to Unker Malau.





and yeah... if you bad cow luck, you will lose a lot if the bully Bob comes ......


so say Auntie Malau

if oil price shit brix, maybank will follow too

Waaa.... troller spotted!

I still trust in old folks. Chinese bank especially.

any comment on BAT?




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