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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Cubalagi
post May 25 2022, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(george_dave91 @ May 24 2022, 12:55 AM)
So guys just a hypothetical question;

If someone gave you RM1K and you could only invest it in stocks (bursa). How many companies would you buy? If just one, which company(ies) or what type of stock(s)? Assume all your other personal finance priorities are sorted and this money is simply extra.

Personally I would probably get just one stock. Maybe Maybank. Mainly cz the drip would help you grow your stake in there too while avoiding trading fees.

What would you guys do? Just a hypothetical scenario.
*
If someone give me free 1K with condition to put in Bursa but no condition on risk, expected returns or time frame, I will.use it as gambling money. Probably throw into a warrant, lose all or win big, just like Genting.

Davidtcf
post May 25 2022, 01:03 PM

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will Malaysia REITs and blue chips like Maybank decline this year? due to interest rate hike by BNM next quarter and maybe beyond?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...es-next-quarter

planning to accumulate some since US and SG stocks now not doing well.
Cubalagi
post May 25 2022, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ May 25 2022, 01:03 PM)
will Malaysia REITs and blue chips like Maybank decline this year? due to interest rate hike by BNM next quarter and maybe beyond?

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...es-next-quarter

planning to accumulate some since US and SG stocks now not doing well.
*
BBB! 😂

On a more serious note, and this is probably not a very popular opinion, but Im more bullish Malaysia than developed markets

Tailwinds that I see:
High commodity prices
Covid/MCO recovery
Moderate inflation, BNM not very aggressive
Coming GE to result in more political certainty

So yeah...that's my 0.5 sen (much cheaper than Boon!).








Davidtcf
post May 25 2022, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 25 2022, 02:58 PM)
BBB! 😂

On a more serious note, and this is probably not a very popular opinion, but Im more bullish Malaysia than developed markets

Tailwinds that I see:
High commodity prices
Covid/MCO recovery
Moderate inflation, BNM not very aggressive
Coming GE to result in more political certainty

So yeah...that's my 0.5 sen (much cheaper than Boon!).
*
urm, I thought coming GE will result in more uncertainty in stock prices? GE is good for our local stocks? sweat.gif
Cubalagi
post May 25 2022, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ May 25 2022, 03:31 PM)
urm, I thought coming GE will result in more uncertainty in stock prices? GE is good for our local stocks?  sweat.gif
*
U can look at Fbmklci performance 6 months pre GE 2013 n 2018.

N after GE, I am assuming this coalition gov will be out..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: May 25 2022, 03:45 PM
OngMaliOng69
post May 25 2022, 04:15 PM

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Wah, cypark what story, why kena dump gao gao?
icemanfx
post May 25 2022, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 25 2022, 02:58 PM)
BBB! 😂

On a more serious note, and this is probably not a very popular opinion, but Im more bullish Malaysia than developed markets

Tailwinds that I see:
High commodity prices
Covid/MCO recovery
Moderate inflation, BNM not very aggressive
Coming GE to result in more political certainty


So yeah...that's my 0.5 sen (much cheaper than Boon!).
*
flyawayfromhere
post May 25 2022, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(george_dave91 @ May 24 2022, 12:55 AM)
So guys just a hypothetical question;

If someone gave you RM1K and you could only invest it in stocks (bursa). How many companies would you buy? If just one, which company(ies) or what type of stock(s)? Assume all your other personal finance priorities are sorted and this money is simply extra.

Personally I would probably get just one stock. Maybe Maybank. Mainly cz the drip would help you grow your stake in there too while avoiding trading fees.

What would you guys do? Just a hypothetical scenario.
*
Genetec
n i wouldn't buy a few companies stock
Cubalagi
post May 26 2022, 08:07 AM

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QUOTE(OngMaliOng69 @ May 25 2022, 04:15 PM)
Wah, cypark what story, why kena dump gao gao?
*
I feel market so nervous now..sell first, figure out the reasons later..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: May 26 2022, 08:08 AM
square2
post May 26 2022, 09:32 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 26 2022, 08:07 AM)
I feel market so nervous now..sell first, figure out the reasons later..
*
like hibiscus sweat.gif
icemanfx
post May 26 2022, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 26 2022, 08:07 AM)
I feel market so nervous now..sell first, figure out the reasons later..
*
QUOTE(square2 @ May 26 2022, 09:32 AM)
like hibiscus sweat.gif
*
many o&g companies have excessive debts carried from previous oil boom time in 2008.

square2
post May 26 2022, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 26 2022, 11:08 AM)
many o&g companies have excessive debts carried from previous oil boom time in 2008.
*
that applies to sapura, velesto, petra, knm

hibiscus, i still have not found any fishy stuff in the report yet sweat.gif
george_dave91
post May 26 2022, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 24 2022, 08:24 AM)

Dividends collected from 2013 till today = 0.33 + 0.535 + 0.57 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 + 0.52 + 0.58 = 5.355 (or RM5335.00 per 1,000 shares)

Maybank traded at a high of 10.80 and low of 8.90 in 2013.

Buy at lowest price in 2013 at 8.90.
Share price today (yesterday closing price) = 8.98
Total dividends collected = 5.335
Total share value + dividends collected = 14.315

And this works out to a CAGR gain of only 4.81%.


total value + dividend = 14.315.

And this works out to a CAGR gain of only 3.81%.

If that 9.85k was invested in KWSP, right now the investment would be worth 17.89k.

Massive difference.

Clearly investing for dividends in Maybank and holding it for 10 years isn't as profitable. 
*
Hey yeah. I was crunching the numbers for a one off investment from 2017 - present with the using the dividend reinvestment plan to minimise cost and increase shares. I wind up with about the same CAGR (upper 3 - 4% p.a). Damn. I suppose to only saving grace would be of the share price goes up. Seems like some UTs easily beat those numbers even after fees.



QUOTE(thkent91 @ May 24 2022, 08:41 AM)
My opinion, if you were to die die pick a stock. My vote goes to United Plantation. Dividends are far more superior than maybank, top notch management (Some may argue wth they are doing with forward contract selling) eager to increase production efficiency and reputable company that many MNCs like to deal with.

It's trading at RM14. so you need to top up rm460 to buy it.
And to repeat. It's only my own analysis. Anyone can share their opinion too. And today best company may not be best for tomorrow. Do your own due diligent!
*
That’s an interesting income company. Shall look into that one further.


QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ May 24 2022, 10:50 PM)
it's a hypothetical question, but there are also many considerations.  laugh.gif Gotta compare it with other potential companies. And also, buy for how long? You gotta understand, RM1000 for investing is a rather small sum, i.e. buying stocks above RM1 will not get you far. Transaction costs would wipeout almost all profit instantly. If you buy 100 shares of Maybank, you would have used up about RM970 of the total RM1000 already  sweat.gif And to break-even, Maybank would have to rise to RM9.70  unsure.gif

I don't recommend buying stocks if only RM1000 is available.

If you want me to answer, if I could only invest in 1 stock, to hold long term,, without looking at share price, I'd go for Public Bank. (coz I'm impressed with their long track record & conservative approach in business) PBBANK is an established bank with conservative lending, with no shortage of talents going there. It is also the bellwether for Msia's economy. I believe Msia's economy will recover after all lockdowns & opening of all businesses.

If you want the answer of companies that I like: Public Bank, Hartalega, QL
*
Yeah the limitation of 1k in this scenario is to force us to think of the best of the best in our opinion. But yeah those are great picks indeed. Finding them at the right price seems to be the challenge tho.


QUOTE(Cubalagi @ May 25 2022, 09:48 AM)
If someone give me free 1K with condition to put in Bursa but no condition on risk, expected returns or time frame, I will.use it as gambling money. Probably throw into a warrant, lose all or win big, just like Genting.
*
Hahaha yeah 1k given to you would be gambling money of sorts. In that if you lose it all you didn’t really lose anything at all.

QUOTE(flyawayfromhere @ May 25 2022, 09:57 PM)
Genetec
n i wouldn't buy a few companies stock
*
Genetec huh, interesting. This one really sprang up last year. Wonder if any all the growth potential has already been priced in.
Boon3
post May 26 2022, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(george_dave91 @ May 26 2022, 12:54 PM)
Hey yeah. I was crunching the numbers for a one off investment from 2017 - present with the using the dividend reinvestment plan to minimise cost and increase shares. I wind up with about the same CAGR (upper 3 - 4% p.a). Damn. I suppose to only saving grace would be of the share price goes up. Seems like some UTs easily beat those numbers even after fees.

*
Well since if it was for dividend income, the comparison is always needed against KWSP. If historical trend shows that it's lacking a lot against the KWSP, logically it makes no sense to make that investment. wink.gif

Genetec? Go read it's cash flows. As it is, the recent boom only resulted in booming trade receivables. 3 quarters (Nine months) of zero signs of collection. Which makes it rather suspect. It's the company doing business without collection of its sales or is there something fishy?

Yeah... read recent history ... the placement of shares at super cheap prices... then came the so-called boom in profits... stock soared like crazy. Really crazy. A 12 for 1 bonus issue! LOL!!! Buy 1 share free you 12 shares.... Crazy. And not forgetting last reported earnings was in Jan. It's now late May. Where is that quarterly report? Will it show an signs of the company collecting any money from its sales? And yeah... did I say... meanwhile its debts boomed??


Boon3
post May 26 2022, 05:31 PM

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Can a profit be a profit if money isn't collected?

That's not a trick question, is it?

laugh.gif
djhenry91
post May 26 2022, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(square2 @ May 26 2022, 12:48 PM)
that applies to sapura, velesto, petra, knm

hibiscus, i still have not found any fishy stuff in the report yet sweat.gif
*
actually hibiscus make loss...
Boon3
post May 26 2022, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 13 2022, 02:17 PM)
the reading of the tape.... tongue.gif

come see what is wrong... laugh.gif

user posted image

market cap is 2.89 billion.
* plain english... if you sell all of AA shares as per last traded price you will get only 2.98 billion*
so what do you get in return...

well you get a company whose current liabilities > current assets by only 6.5 biillion.

user posted image

or we can use the NTA.... which is only at -0.80.
get this.... just a year ago, the same period, the NTA was ONLY -0.36 sen.

Yup... that's how much the company has 'improved' during that period.
14million each?  shocking.gif  shocking.gif  rclxub.gif
*
.. reported its quarterlies...

Net liabilities worsen from 6.5 billion to 7.3 billion

and drum roll........................... NTA went from -0.80 to only -1.04


rclxms.gif






just wondering.... will we see a debate also?


rclxm9.gif


Boon3
post May 26 2022, 08:00 PM

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and the biggest warning is.... the money!! (or rather the lack of.... !!!)

user posted image

....

user posted image



889 million gone.... in.... errr.... 3 months??? shocking.gif shakehead.gif rclxub.gif
Randomization
post May 26 2022, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 26 2022, 08:00 PM)
and the biggest warning is.... the money!! (or rather the lack of.... !!!)

user posted image

....

user posted image
889 million gone.... in.... errr.... 3 months???  shocking.gif  shakehead.gif  rclxub.gif
*
Part of it gone here maybe. Need to split the cake laugh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Boon3
post May 27 2022, 06:43 AM

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QUOTE(Randomization @ May 26 2022, 08:14 PM)
Part of it gone here maybe. Need to split the cake  laugh.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
364 million left...



tick tock tick tock........

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