QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 29 2020, 02:52 PM)
Extreme bearish due to moratorium fear of NPL successfully pushed the banks to super cheap valuation (at least to me). Was thinking if gloves would face the same extreme bearishness that open opportunities for value buys. IF Topglov drops to a 2023 forward PE of 5-6, it should be at about 1.7-1.9.
Current 2023 forward PE for Topglov is about 18.6. 2023 is used because earnings would have normalized in 2023 and stops dropping after that
The main issue is always ASP.
Nobody knows how future ASP will be post pandemic, or when covid become under control or manageable time.
An industry with profit margin of 50% which doesn't have entry barrier is like sugar that certainly attracts lot of ants, many new comers are eager to join the industry as well as massive expansion plan from existing players that may eventually normalise the ASP.
Business is always like that. Last time oil price high, all flock into O&G until now oversupply.
Mask is the example we are looking at.
Difference : Mask takes months to install production line. Gloves takes year.
But I don't expect those glove share price drops to pre-covid level.
Their share price likely to stablise at some point as they still have strong fundamental, they are not like those pure goreng penny stocks.
I guess need to look for TA in term of finding entry point, when the falling knife pattern stops.