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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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Duckies
post Dec 29 2020, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 02:45 PM)
Interesting article...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/547884?...MrvpDr7XE4Ihy4Y

One thing... How many countries actually has the 5g infrastructure towers?

I  thinking....the phones with 5g... is like driving a Fellali in a kampung....
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Hmmm looking into 5G, what counters are related to this? hmm.gif
HereToLearn
post Dec 29 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Dec 29 2020, 02:25 PM)
There is a bit difference.

Bank, from normal profit to extreme bearish due to moratorium fear of NPL, which doesn't worse as many predicted.
The low PE is because of expectation future profit going to drop a lot, which doesn't materialise.

Glove, from extra-ordinary profit to potential future normalise profit.
The low PE is because of current extra ordinary profit which unlikely to sustain.

So if ASP does drop at all and stay at high profit margin of 40%, 50% for long time, then yes, glove may behave like banks rebound.
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Extreme bearish due to moratorium fear of NPL successfully pushed the banks to super cheap valuation (at least to me). Was thinking if gloves would face the same extreme bearishness that open opportunities for value buys. IF Topglov drops to a 2023 forward PE of 5-6, it should be at about 1.7-1.9.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2020, 02:29 PM)
why 2023 and not 2021, 2022? why not 2025 or 2030?!

if u annualize last QR PAT, current PEs are TG 5.2, spmx 5.2, harta 18.8, kossan 8.6.

will be curious to see if TG and spmx PE will dive to 3 or even 2?! laugh.gif
btw, TG just reiterated ASP and hence PAT will be superb in 2021; spmx next QR should be superb too.
but sure... if all of mr market sees no future in 2022 or 2023, even PE 1 is too high, i suppose! tongue.gif
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Current 2023 forward PE for Topglov is about 18.6. 2023 is used because earnings would have normalized in 2023 and stops dropping after that
Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 02:51 PM)
Hmmm looking into 5G, what counters are related to this? hmm.gif
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You ask back pulak... laugh.gif
Duckies
post Dec 29 2020, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 03:00 PM)
You ask back pulak... laugh.gif
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Ohhh I thought u have some ideas hahaha.
HereToLearn
post Dec 29 2020, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 03:00 PM)
Ohhh I thought u have some ideas hahaha.
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https://www.isaham.my/sector/5G

5g in Malaysia is delayed until 2022
statikinetic
post Dec 29 2020, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 02:48 PM)
Worst of all.. some keep instigating it.
Call warrants will always exist, isn't it? If the stock is really worth its weight in gold, why keep grasping at straws?
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Convenient bogeyman.
Easy than saying "I got my analysis wrong".

QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 02:51 PM)
Hmmm looking into 5G, what counters are related to this? hmm.gif
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TM. Perhaps TIME.
Heard that 3G phasing out is starting next year.

This post has been edited by statikinetic: Dec 29 2020, 03:05 PM
Duckies
post Dec 29 2020, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 29 2020, 03:04 PM)
https://www.isaham.my/sector/5G

5g in Malaysia is delayed until 2022
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Oh thanks bro. I am using isaham website as well but didn't notice there's a 5G specific sector.

QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 03:04 PM)
Convenient bogeyman.
Easy than saying "I got my analysis wrong".
TM. Perhaps TIME.
*
Hm..I guess the usual players for 5G like TM, Time, Celcom, Digi and Maxis hmm.gif

I am looking at Inari tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Duckies: Dec 29 2020, 03:06 PM
wayton
post Dec 29 2020, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 29 2020, 02:52 PM)
Extreme bearish due to moratorium fear of NPL successfully pushed the banks to super cheap valuation (at least to me). Was thinking if gloves would face the same extreme bearishness that open opportunities for value buys. IF Topglov drops to a 2023 forward PE of 5-6, it should be at about 1.7-1.9.
Current 2023 forward PE for Topglov is about 18.6. 2023 is used because earnings would have normalized in 2023 and stops dropping after that
*
The main issue is always ASP.

Nobody knows how future ASP will be post pandemic, or when covid become under control or manageable time.

An industry with profit margin of 50% which doesn't have entry barrier is like sugar that certainly attracts lot of ants, many new comers are eager to join the industry as well as massive expansion plan from existing players that may eventually normalise the ASP.
Business is always like that. Last time oil price high, all flock into O&G until now oversupply.

Mask is the example we are looking at.
Difference : Mask takes months to install production line. Gloves takes year.

But I don't expect those glove share price drops to pre-covid level.
Their share price likely to stablise at some point as they still have strong fundamental, they are not like those pure goreng penny stocks.

I guess need to look for TA in term of finding entry point, when the falling knife pattern stops.



HereToLearn
post Dec 29 2020, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 03:04 PM)
TM. Perhaps TIME.
Heard that 3G phasing out is starting next year.
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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 03:05 PM)
Oh thanks bro. I am using isaham website as well but didn't notice there's a 5G specific sector.
Hm..I guess the usual players for 5G like TM, Time, Celcom, Digi and Maxis hmm.gif

I am looking at Inari tongue.gif
*
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt...maxis-and-altel
Was awarded to Telekom Malaysia Bhd ™, Celcom Axiata Bhd, and units from Maxis Bhd and DiGi.Com Bhd have been given the 700 megahertz (MHz) band of 5G network by the Ministry of Communications and Multimedia (KKMM).

But i think it was revoked over the process done without a tender. But the best bets are maybe these guys.
statikinetic
post Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 03:05 PM)
I am looking at Inari tongue.gif
*
What's your entry price?
The 2.70 looking stronger now in the afternoon session.

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 29 2020, 03:10 PM)
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/govt...maxis-and-altel
Was awarded to Telekom Malaysia Bhd ™, Celcom Axiata Bhd, and units from Maxis Bhd and DiGi.Com Bhd have been given the 700 megahertz (MHz) band of 5G network by the Ministry of Communications and Multimedia (KKMM).

But i think it was revoked over the process done without a tender. But the best bets are maybe these guys.
*
I find it very hard to imagine a 5G instrastructure project without TM being involved somehow.
In some capacity, it's always going to be there.

Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 03:05 PM)
Oh thanks bro. I am using isaham website as well but didn't notice there's a 5G specific sector.
Hm..I guess the usual players for 5G like TM, Time, Celcom, Digi and Maxis hmm.gif

I am looking at Inari tongue.gif
*
I was just reading this article also...

https://www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/ne...happy-about-5g/

The reasons... sounds legit doesn't it?

Is like 5g available commercially ahead of time....


By the time.. countries like us, setup the 5g infrastructure towers and what not...the next level (is it 6g?) will be out...

voyage23
post Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM

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Would you get into GENM now? For mid-long term. Considering that outdoor theme park slated to open next year.
theberry
post Dec 29 2020, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM)
What's your entry price?
The 2.70 looking stronger now in the afternoon session.
I find it very hard to imagine a 5G instrastructure project without TM being involved somehow.
In some capacity, it's always going to be there.
*
inb4 Malaysia Glc + monopoly best...

ChAOoz
post Dec 29 2020, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 02:48 PM)
Worst of all.. some keep instigating it.
Call warrants will always exist, isn't it? If the stock is really worth its weight in gold, why keep grasping at straws?
*
The alternative would be to admit that ASP will normalized and they are catching a falling knife.

If need to choose between those two, i would go for warrant reason also if in their shoe. At least if say due to warrant still got hope it will rebound after warrant expiry.

But this is an extremely childish way of investing. Rational one would have see it objectively and perhaps trimmed down their holdings or cut loss already not placing "HOPE" on rebound based on warrant / push down price / IB manipulation and what not.
SUSlowya
post Dec 29 2020, 03:21 PM

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KSSC interesting
Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 29 2020, 03:17 PM)
The alternative would be to admit that ASP will normalized and they are catching a falling knife.

If need to choose between those two, i would go for warrant reason also if in their shoe. At least if say due to warrant still got hope it will rebound after warrant expiry.

But this is an extremely childish way of investing. Rational one would have see it objectively and perhaps trimmed down their holdings or cut loss already not placing "HOPE" on rebound based on warrant / push down price / IB manipulation and what not.
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One will then blame our noises!! Lol!

If don't own glove stocks, then we shouldn't comment. And if we do, our comments are immature!

laugh.gif
Duckies
post Dec 29 2020, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM)
What's your entry price?
The 2.70 looking stronger now in the afternoon session.
I find it very hard to imagine a 5G instrastructure project without TM being involved somehow.
In some capacity, it's always going to be there.
*
Yea but still not a very strong entry point. If want to play safe probably will see few more days. If it remains at 2.71 and above then it's time to go in.
Krv23490
post Dec 29 2020, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 03:13 PM)
What's your entry price?
The 2.70 looking stronger now in the afternoon session.

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Dec 29 2020, 03:23 PM)
Yea but still not a very strong entry point. If want to play safe probably will see few more days. If it remains at 2.71 and above then it's time to go in.
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i masuk 2.67 sweat.gif and 2.54


SUSNew Klang
post Dec 29 2020, 03:34 PM

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Glove counter wannabe doing well

INIX
Duckies
post Dec 29 2020, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Dec 29 2020, 03:32 PM)
i masuk 2.67  sweat.gif  and 2.54
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Eh bro any reason to masuk at that price? No right or wrong, I just want to learn biggrin.gif

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