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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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andrekua2
post Nov 7 2020, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(cofin @ Nov 7 2020, 11:45 AM)
Gloves hard to hit them with windfall tax ..... coz small supermax can earn a lot while hartalega so big earning so much less than their brothers

if a % of windfall tax hit on gloves i think hartalega stock sure drop the most
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Hartalega where got bigger than Supermax and Kossan?
andrekua2
post Nov 7 2020, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 7 2020, 01:22 PM)
Harta is >2x bigger than spmax.
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You mean market cap?
andrekua2
post Nov 7 2020, 06:32 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 7 2020, 06:11 PM)
Yup, that’s how we view whether a company big or not. Unless u are using different type of measuring indicator.
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Depends.

Since I deal with them indirectly via a client who designed their machines, many would said they are the most efficient instead (stopped supplying after completing plant 1&2 out of 6). They have just completed NGC1 (IIRC) and in terms of production lines, I think the numbers is around 100 or so including another 24 that we did in old factory plant 5&6.

The other has more lines but Hartalega pulled ahead with its crazy ROE due to better margin from nitrile. Hartalega share price tends to be higher as well due to limited liquidity on the market. Even with windfall from covid, their PER is still pretty high unlike the rest.
andrekua2
post Nov 7 2020, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Nov 7 2020, 06:49 PM)
yes, repubs looking to maintain senate control.

democrats wun have it easy... still, a lot of wrangling... market uneasy.... but growth stocks incl TECH shud continue to move higher.

the other thing impt about biden is he has declared he will rush to combat covid19... what will he do and how much will he spend?

under reported, and 120,000 infections a day... by jan, 10% americans wud have it.
one thing... i can see two camps in the investment world now.

one keeps saying "vaccine tmr", all goes back to before, traditionals like banks,o&g, ports,airports, telcos will fly, incl this new AMINVEST forecast:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/amin...budget-2021-out

the other says the world has changed... old will pass, tech and related, healthcare will be tops.

so, i think this is where the debate will keep going... until one side gives up. biggrin.gif
harta stock price by PER is 3.5 times than of spmx - investors giving it a super-duper premium over ALL of them.

if u r insider, maybe u can verify:

harta production current = 38.1 bil pcs p.a
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hart...t-global-demand

spmx 26.1 bil pcs as per their recent analyst briefing slides.
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I stopped following after not supplying. Not sure about the capacity... think I heard they said 50k/hour (or 55k) for ngc. Not sure if they achieved because that time many problem occurred during commencement. Not sure about Supermax but I think many of them delayed the completion of their factory due to oversupply previously. Otherwise they would have achieved much higher capacity.

Hartalega can be hold for long because of limited liquidity. That has never changed but it is expensive for what it is. Unless you're riding it from RM5 till now.
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 04:03 PM

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Looks like furniture stock peaking...
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 9 2020, 04:09 PM)
I only entered AT last Friday. Switched on my computer this morning. Instant profit. This is pure goreng stock. Kamikaze mission.  sweat.gif
No worries. I also sold off 1/2 of my shares in Comfort and Careplus right after lunch to lock in my profits.

But I am still holding a lot of stocks including the Big 4 glove stocks.

All the furniture stocks are on steroid. My Homeriz is up +7.43%. Alas! I only bought a very small holding.

Hevea and Latitud (which I didn't buy) are up about +13% to 14% today. All because Biden won?
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Homeritz finally broke 90c but last quarter revenue not that high. If add old warrant and new incoming warrant, they need to increase revenue and profit.
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 9 2020, 04:15 PM)
A rising tide lift all boats. Trend following Michael Covel style for all furniture stocks...
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Was looking at Hevea too but didnt pull the trigger. Hevea has been suppressed quite a lot since last 2 years.
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Nov 9 2020, 04:54 PM)
Main contributor is their nitrile gloves plant will start operate either end of this month or latest early dec.
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Last time all scared to make nitrile gloves. After Hartalega fought court battle and won, all rush into nitrile gloves.
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(zz287963 @ Nov 9 2020, 04:46 PM)
11 lines natural rubber gloves plus 7 lines nitrile gloves... price already fly but first line also havent assemble.

Then I look at the speed... 24,000/hr versus Hartalega 50,000/hr. Not to mention so small surely wont get supply from Petronas, most likely using electricity. Cost is like quite high. Want to make money is not hard, want to get rich... hmmm
...
andrekua2
post Nov 9 2020, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Nov 9 2020, 06:03 PM)
Once it reaches my TP, I will sell it off too. Imagine when EPF offloads all their holdings 😁
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Will EPF offload? I think they will hold a certain percentage of klci component index. Once TG crossee 20% of global output, they will dwarf everyone else.
andrekua2
post Nov 10 2020, 04:51 PM

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Wow... very big trap with Homeritz

WB 34.5
Exercise value 54

Mothershare at 96c... lots of conversion going on currently...almost everyday... reminded of the days with L&G
andrekua2
post Nov 11 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 11 2020, 03:16 PM)
On glove, many including me, underestimate the magnitude of explosive earning due to rise in ASP and still stay elevated until now, hence we have second wave of surge on glove at that time, and analysts keep on changing TP.

I am with you on this.
Those went in early, probably will earn big during recovery, but at the same time, it could be catching falling knife if situation is not favourable.

While go in later, then earn lesser, but less risky as well.

One thing I learned through experience through 1997 AFC, 2000 dotcom bubble, 2008 GFC crisis, is that in every recovery, not every company will recover the same.
Some may troubled by debt problem, which needs massive capital injection, right issue, may dilute the effect of the recovery. Some may lose competitive edge together as well due to change of fundamental and economy shape.
eg.
last time profit 100 mil EPS 10 cents.
after massive right issue 1:1, profit indeed recover 100 mil, EPS 5 cents only.

Since share price is highly correlated to EPS, hence the dilution effect of right issue taking a toll on share price performance.
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The only one that outperform my expectations is Supermax. Didnt knew that the black swan unwanted gloves stockpile will be its biggest bargaining chip.
andrekua2
post Nov 11 2020, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Nov 11 2020, 04:11 PM)
Harta -3%
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Harta is okay. The most advance glove makers in the country. They wasted a lot of time when they ditched my client so that they can appoint a main con who would do everything. NGC could have completed 2-3 years ahead.

2 years ago they went back to my client design from what I heard. He was also the one responsible for their automatic glove stripping machine. Funny that most people lose their root when they were making tonnes of money.
andrekua2
post Nov 11 2020, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Nov 11 2020, 04:21 PM)
Harta is well run and also quite generous i believe ? As oppose to TG which stretch productivity and efficiency to the core.

Being good to staff / good working environment does not always translate into great share performance sometime.
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Not sure about their working environment. Never been there.

From what I heard, old ceo retired, son takeover, then the fallout happened while doing NGC plant 1 and 2. Long story cut short, later heard retired old boss coming out to fix the nonstop problem in NGC and ask my client to redo problematic lines according to his design which already proven in the old factory in Batang Berjuntai.
andrekua2
post Nov 12 2020, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Nov 12 2020, 07:21 PM)
Too glove plan to buy back up to 10% shares, should be good news .
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So no kena windfall tax, donation can offset income tax,, then extra money do bonus issue and share buyback... lol

What minority shareholders get? Nada, nil, zero...lol... typical chinaman
andrekua2
post Nov 12 2020, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Nov 12 2020, 09:08 PM)
I mean if you are holding goreng counter then probably scare... But top 4 glove company all good fundamental and good QR.. So why are you scared?

Yes it might be red now but it doesn't mean it won't go up. Next QR profit is gonna be good as well, in fact it'll be even better.

We shall see if this is the end of glove. We have been going through the same cycle since August til now.
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Investors want to reap profit but if company spent all on year end bonuses, bonus issue, share buyback, how about aome generous dividend?
andrekua2
post Nov 13 2020, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Nov 13 2020, 12:55 PM)
actually the warehouse looks empty, where is the production line?
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LOL

Why did you ask this question now? Should ask before you bought in.

Its the usual MY reply... ON THE WAY
andrekua2
post Nov 16 2020, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Nov 16 2020, 04:17 PM)
For some inexplicable reason, I am holding on to my last 2 war chests. You can call it gambler's fallacy or whatever fancy name you want.

During the last meltdown in August, I had so much ammo. I pancut awal. Even when there was just a slight drop of about -4% to -5%, I shot arrows after arrows at the glove stocks as if there were no tomorrow.

Towards the end, I remember I ran out of ammo much too early.

Like what Cherroy said, it takes discipline to average down only when there is a drop of -10% in the stock. Average down in stages. But this is easier said than done.

So, this time I am trying to be more disciplined. Again, no right or wrong approach. To each his own.

Good luck everyone who topped up today. I mean it sincerely. I hope the glove stocks will rebound tomorrow and you will all reap the profits.  thumbup.gif
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I used to do this but even at 10%, I wouldn't consider topping up. I would only average down when its more than 20%.

andrekua2
post Nov 16 2020, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(phas3r @ Nov 16 2020, 03:32 PM)
in september TG dropped around 6.47 after QR release.... shark says thank you very much

today's drop seems never ending.. personally i kind of not want to touch healthcare anymore due to its sensitivity and volatility on news...i have been collecting TG since march-april days, the glory days of glove

billion rm profit company red everyday, loss making every year company limit up, nothing new in bursa here
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Many CW are expiring... I wouldnt be surprised that some hidden hands are manipulating behind the scene. Just play carefully.
andrekua2
post Nov 16 2020, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Nov 16 2020, 04:30 PM)
Of these big 4, i only buy Smax and TG. Smax due to its future potentials - dual listing in Sg and building gloves plants in US and UK. Plus for the next few qtrs or years, their hefty profit would enable them to move ahead faster than Kossan or Harta. These cash would enable them to undertake more projects eg to build more glove plants or to diversify into other health related industries. Who knows they may go into biomedical research or become a major distributor for health products since they already have their distribution channels in the Americas and Europe. Where Smax is now is very different from few years ago, hence it will be an exciting company to follow for next few years.
TG cause it is the industry leader, hence they have more financial might to expand and leave their competitions behind eating their dust. Boss Lim is a man of vision - besides  glove manufacturing, they are now into a lot of different businesses. Products that support their glove plants fr A-Z, property, medical centre, biomedical etc.
Harta is over priced and seems to be very comfortable staying put in Malaysia with only glove as their main business.
Kossan even worst.
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Harta is overpriced which is true but technologically is also much superior than even TG. If you compare the revenue of Hartalega vs TG in comparison with their numbers of lines, it will shock you. Hartalega is so much more efficient and also probably the only one with automatic glove stripping meaning less workforce needed.

Personally I dont think TG will be building new plants because it took so long. That's why they bought Aspion aka ex Adventa. For a company with over 300lines, installing 10 or 20 new lines per year seems like too slow to make any significant difference. A big takeover target like Aspion or Latexx could increase their output by a huge amount.


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