On glove, many including me, underestimate the magnitude of explosive earning due to rise in ASP and still stay elevated until now, hence we have second wave of surge on glove at that time, and analysts keep on changing TP.
I am with you on this.
Those went in early, probably will earn big during recovery, but at the same time, it could be catching falling knife if situation is not favourable.
While go in later, then earn lesser, but less risky as well.
One thing I learned through experience through 1997 AFC, 2000 dotcom bubble, 2008 GFC crisis, is that in every recovery, not every company will recover the same.
Some may troubled by debt problem, which needs massive capital injection, right issue, may dilute the effect of the recovery. Some may lose competitive edge together as well due to change of fundamental and economy shape.
eg.
last time profit 100 mil EPS 10 cents.
after massive right issue 1:1, profit indeed recover 100 mil, EPS 5 cents only.
Since share price is highly correlated to EPS, hence the dilution effect of right issue taking a toll on share price performance.
The only one that outperform my expectations is Supermax. Didnt knew that the black swan unwanted gloves stockpile will be its biggest bargaining chip.