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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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andrekua2
post Dec 1 2020, 08:20 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 1 2020, 08:16 PM)
Until tansri perform gong de ceremony and give more to charity, trouble is likely continue to find him.
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They memang dont dare touch TG one. That's why TG always got case. Last time TG how many PATI? Few thousands...

Already paid for Tan Sri of course will use to fullest...
andrekua2
post Dec 1 2020, 09:35 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Dec 1 2020, 09:05 PM)
icon_idea.gif  icon_idea.gif  icon_idea.gif
bloodbath inkabambing  brows.gif
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Hartalega very hard to get blood bath. Big boss 51%... Then you got the bumi tengkala (not sure if they are still in it, they used to be 20% during ipo), EPF, Hartalega customer, and other funds.

This post has been edited by andrekua2: Dec 1 2020, 09:36 PM
andrekua2
post Dec 1 2020, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 1 2020, 09:15 PM)
Wow... this thread turning into an 1 3 forum.
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LoL

Just because of few who play high risk high return? I don't play but I also don't jelly.
andrekua2
post Dec 1 2020, 10:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 1 2020, 10:36 PM)
Top Glove purchase of Aspion Gloves was bad also.

And of course Supermax's contact lens investment. Sadly, no much interest. wink.gif
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I think Aspion purchase isn't so bad now. Probably become one of the best purchase ever since those kicik miao glove makers also become billions.
andrekua2
post Dec 1 2020, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 1 2020, 10:47 PM)
How it was purchased was so bad.

Overpay... Cos they say upon checking the assets, they say Aspion not worth so much.. more a less saying they got cheated.. then they sue. The other sue back. Then suddenly settle for a very low lump sump, which meant they overpaid by 350 million. wink.gif

Shareholder money.. just vanish just like that.
But yeah.. with c19.. all is good I guess.
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What I can say is that Aspion is not bad. They were among the very first few who tried to copy Hartalega design. One of my client who did the whole mechanical design claim their speed can rival Hartalega (of course I listen half heartily since I also got dealings with client involved with Hartalega). However judging from the size of their gears, yeah, their speed should be somewhat close (less than 10k difference per hour).
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 08:27 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 2 2020, 08:01 AM)
Anyway.... just for ur reading.... #post #2252
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TQ...

Anyway valuation is very subjective. Just like how I missed PPHB because I was concerned about the hotels they bought 2 years earlier would impact their earnings. Well, shoot up almost 80% from where I added it to my surveillance. Could be my first 100% profit.

One thing I never get is tech valuation. I simply dont understand what is so tech about some of the LED makings. Crazy ass valuation. I still remember a few years ago when Vitrox was RM2. My bro's BIL was a stock analyst at a local institution. He wrote about it and EPS number isnt impressive (its not like its impressive now). My bro added that his BIL gets some gadget whenever they (Vitrox) invited analyst to come and cover the company. That made me skeptical about buying because why would you do that if you are as impressive as you said. Well, Vitrox is RM15 now and I still dont see why its worth that much.

This post has been edited by andrekua2: Dec 2 2020, 08:28 AM
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 2 2020, 05:03 PM)
much like what i think! biggrin.gif

too many arrows hitting it one after another... CBP, windfall tax, vaccine A, covid19 dorms, vaccine B, raid, charges, fines...

other than the factories shut for 1 month, what has changed really?

demand? ASP? healthcare no need gloves?!!

yeah, wait for next QR... see results, guidance and what else...
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Dont think glove counters really need to see their QR.

1. Lousy dividend
2. Post covid coming soon, probably within a year for most

What IB want to know is how they would fare post covid with more competition, excess capacity, what would be the ASP be like...
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 06:06 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Dec 2 2020, 05:38 PM)
Ppe think do test and vaccine no need ppe one lol. Imagine whole world need inject vaccine next year. 2 dosage per pax, 4 gloves at least is needed. So vaccine whole world 60 bil ppl, how many gloves needed? Sendiri count ba haha
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Are you sure you need to change gloves for everyone? Its a vaccine, not virus. They are changing gloves once they came out of a covid19 patient room, but I dont think you need to do the same for vaccine. Why I think so? They are not changing gloves when taking swabs.
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 2 2020, 05:54 PM)
Once front liner got vaccine jab, i doubt they will practice full PPE anymore.

I see last time during school when we go and get our BCG vaccine, it seemed like one pair of gloves is used for the entire day vaccinations activities.

Now you go some clinic to do your Hepatitis vaccine, some don't even wear PPEs.
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Not really. Vaccine is to let body develop antibodies to fight the virus. You will still caught the virus and the difference is just less severe symptoms since you had the antibodies to fight back. Much like pox vaccine.
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 06:12 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Dec 2 2020, 06:06 PM)
Latest from Mkini (sorry am not a subscriber) -The Kelantan government wants a study to carried out to ensure the Covid-19 vaccine complies with Islamic law before it can be used, said Deputy Menteri Besar Mohd Amar Nik Abdullah.

Nah! there you have it. What say you?
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If you drive to other states, you can still get a jab...
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 2 2020, 07:18 PM)
I don't hate on glove sector, i have sit on the rocket ship and very appreciative of the gains it bring me. But i have no regret on cashing out earlier also.

Glove is just not the fast grower it is anymore once everyone piled into it and scrutinized it everyday.
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Glove is not easy to read nowadays. For once, pre covid19, there's surplus capacity. Every major glove makers utilisation are roughly around 60-70%. Now some new players are coming and probably gonna add another 20-30b pieces per annum once they are completed in 2-3 years time. Meanwhile Supermax also bought some land and hope to expand yet again. Hartalega planning NGC 1.5 (or was it 2.0?) across the current NGC. Personally I feel scary for smaller makers once covid is over since those big one already had billions in war chest to bring price war to a new low.
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 2 2020, 09:10 PM)
Free...

user posted image

As seen in image attached above, it is called MCDX Smart Money. I hope it will help all of us here make a better trading/investing plan  rclxm9.gif.

But always use other indicators together as well, dont solely rely on it.
- See the chart, use it along with other technicals such as resistance breakout with increasing volume, good sentiment + thematic play

Also before you buy, check the fundamentals. Avoid those purely goreng stocks, because if you are stucked, you may never recover.
So that even if you are stucked high in the good fundamental counters, you can wait while collecting dividends until the cyclicity returns .
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Aiks, you're also into steel already. Yesterday was looking at Pantech and Engtex but didn't commit. Queue Pantech at 38.5 and Engtex around 55. Look again today already sail away. The reason I look because I saw LeonFuat already sail from 36 to 52 while the rest is lagging. However, I dont know what to feel about it. Its nice to see steel counters rebounding into black (annjoo still red though) but I don't think steel industry will celebrate this year end. Steel price did go up a little bit lately but the demand since cmco 2.0 hasn't been good from what I heard.
andrekua2
post Dec 2 2020, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 2 2020, 11:43 PM)
At current asp, pay back is less than a year. by end 2021, most new comers would have almost or fully recovered their investment. old timers are used to excessive spending during the good time are burden with high overhead, may or may not able to compete on price.
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Not really. I don't think they will recoup everything. Some of the numbers posted like those on AT isn't really good. I mean if you're doing less than 30k/hour/line, you're in big trouble. Hartalega doing 45k/hour/line on those plant 5 and 6 in Ijok. Sepang line they were trying to achieve 55k/hour/line (these are some of the rumours I heard about when I had supplied the gears in plant 1 and 2 in Sepang. Not sure if they achieved it or not since there were some reliability issues back then).

Quantity matters in production which is why Hartalega has crazy return on equity back then.
andrekua2
post Dec 3 2020, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Dec 3 2020, 12:09 AM)
I think you meant post-Covid, there'll be surplus concerns, right? I agree with you that smaller glove companies will suffer after Covid 19 subsides. But from now until 3 months later, I don't think glove demand will suddenly drop. Don't think issue of surplus will even occur. I believe big 4 gloves are oversold now, bcoz supernormal profit will continue until 3 months from now, at least. Perhaps market sentiment has weakened, and will not reach peak share prices, but gloves shares will eventually recover. Really nid to have guts to hold gloves now.  flex.gif
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Stock market always look forward. So what if glove makers will enjoy good QR for the rest of 2021? First stingy with dividends. So why should I accumulate when BAT, HEIM are paying much more for the same money. You're banking on it to rise because of EPS but as you said it yourself, not sustainable after vaccine.
andrekua2
post Dec 3 2020, 10:15 AM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Dec 3 2020, 08:51 AM)
Cyclical industry - no harm buying it near the low in the trough.
After seeing it plunged so much from peak, I guess it is ok to get it. When economy expands, more metals should be needed.
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Well, one of the reason to avoid is most of them are too stingy.
andrekua2
post Dec 3 2020, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(brokenbomb @ Dec 3 2020, 11:22 AM)
Yeah, I’m done keeping up with the news. Now just chart pattern and moving average. Haha. Last time careplus the director SBB@RM5 ish. So i lurked into i3, jumpa support group and consoled each other “yes! Director have faith in this company! When the share price is down still buyback! I believe in this company! Ok since im up by 200% no reason for me to sell!”

Then slowly the price drop from 5.4>4.6>3.8>3.2 (Exit price)

profit drop from 200%++ to like 50%.

Yes a profit still a profit. But consider lucky.

Some bought at RM5.4, wonder where they are now.

Expensive lesson for me. Now just chilling with UWC and Inari. No more heart attack no more noise.
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Wow...200% also don't sell... Like my cousin

Buy supermax CW... Dare devil, don't even know how to calculate but got chicken luck... 20k in 3 days but don't want to sell. Don't know aim for moon or jupiter. Last 2 drop until flat baru takut and sell.
andrekua2
post Dec 3 2020, 11:21 PM

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I wonder how steel counters will react tomorrow.

user posted image
andrekua2
post Dec 4 2020, 01:26 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 3 2020, 11:40 PM)
Dividend from treasury share is non cash; cash from p&l is kept for other purpose. believe topg dividend will be similar.
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TG do pay cash.. I believe only supermax doing this amongst big glove makers.
andrekua2
post Dec 4 2020, 08:02 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 4 2020, 07:58 AM)
Topg currently has over RM 1bn treasury shares on hand. Let wait and see.
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Tan Sri will not share his beloved shares with you
andrekua2
post Dec 4 2020, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 4 2020, 08:11 AM)
SBB said otherwise.
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If SBB is a good indicator, then insas would have given me more shares in the last 5 years.

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