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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Sherman Kong @ Aug 12 2020, 11:08 AM)
Should I average down supermax? Enter at 22.86 ,now 19.68....,
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Just dont top up harta

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 11:26 AM

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QUOTE(kelvinlym @ Aug 12 2020, 11:25 AM)
There's always new people coming in when the next bubble comes.
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Nice car bro
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 11:46 AM

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QUOTE(ratloverice @ Aug 12 2020, 11:44 AM)
Luckily it's the russian that announced the vaccine... If it's the american, siao liao the market will be more panic lol.
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LOL
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(triple02 @ Aug 12 2020, 11:51 AM)
thank you for your findings on SuperMx yesterday notworthy.gif

went ahead and did my own analysis and was surprised really...

didnt invest in Glove stocks prior to this at all so was abit scared to masuk..
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LOL no worries, TBH. I just take the EPS and project it forward for 4 quarters (which i think is possible, as new production factories will take some time to set up)
And I just want to show to the public dont buy just because they are gloves, because not all gloves are equal

Just like ROLEX vs PATEK vs CASIO.

After all the gloves max out their potential (supermax potential is not yet maxed out), join me in the boring long term counters biggrin.gif. Will share here after the glove hypes.


QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(PSS2020 @ Aug 12 2020, 12:01 PM)
No. I mean does WB do the misleading way like KYY 😃
I think no right...
WB just buys what he wants and then only talk good about his shares that he bought..
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He drinks coca cola in media after buying lots of coca cola drool.gif

He just buy the undervalued stocks and advertise them indirectly icon_rolleyes.gif
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(yehlai @ Aug 12 2020, 12:37 PM)
You're comparing PE based on their ROE to see if the PE justify?
If PE high but ROE lower then don't buy
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I mainly want to compare which gloves are the best, and which is no longer a good idea to hold (to share it with the public) by comparing
the actual PAT vs the required PAT to meet the market consensus PE of 25x

ROE is just extra to tell that dont measure everything based on PE. Because higher ROE counter should justify higher PE. Which in this case for supermx, PE can be higher and still somewhat 'OK' to buy. But to be on the safe side stay with PE 25x/
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 01:17 PM

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Good news people, NZ has new covid cases.

More chance for gloves
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(ckuanglim @ Aug 12 2020, 02:41 PM)
They turned green because they see hope in vaccines. While we go red also because we see hope in vaccines.
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If you are invested in gloves, dont worry too much about vaccine. Gloves have pre-booked orders that will last for quite something.

When I went throught supermax's balance sheet when it was released after seeing its extraordinary QR, its prebook amount is about 850m (20-50% of the selling price)

This guy conservative TP is 38.76 (scenario 1), maximum TP is RM57.99
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/freetospe...R_1_FORCAST.jsp
He used average ASP of 100USD for scenario 1

average ASP as of July is 80-120USD
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/07/608...l-glove-exports


LETS NOT ALL BE TOO AMBITIOUS TO MAKE A NEW NESTLE HERE, but I think following the market PE of 30.58 is an achievable target for supermx investors. When supermx potential is maxed out, join me to invest in other boring counters



Also, I think you might need to worry if you are invested in harta...

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 12 2020, 02:58 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 12 2020, 02:54 PM)
I notice here always got many ppl hoping for 10am and 4pm show, DAILY, haha.
*
Thats the only time day traders can exploit (without short selling), and long term investors can hope to get cheaper sales
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(KSMMA @ Aug 12 2020, 04:03 PM)
tio played by putin sial
user posted image
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LOL
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 12 2020, 05:06 PM)
July one drop 5+. Currently its 4+ only. I suspect one more drop is coming tomorrow. And once enough, will go back up.
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Market will rebound when one least expects it lol. Like how the gold jumped today. CONFIRM SYNDICATE TRADER
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 12 2020, 05:30 PM)
They most likely will. Friday I dunno, but if they limit up 2 days in a row, then frozen on Monday. Then they dump. Do you see it happening, or Friday dump instead?
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In the end, banks are still the safest. Others will argue that NPL will rise after moratorium. Yes it will but it is projected to rise to between 1.8-1.9%. When the world avg NPL is 5%.
With that being said

Here r the 2 best banks IMO
1. BIMB (bank with best fundamentals to price ratio) for long term collection as FD
2. CIMB (for best rebounding play, dropped the most from pre-covid level)

Can slowly collect from now before release of 2020Q4 report
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(waghyu @ Aug 12 2020, 05:45 PM)
Forget Friday, make money tomorrow. Why worry about Friday dump when you cannot short in the system. Today is easy +20% to +25% for those focus on Tomei / Poh Kong alone. Tomorrow high chance further extension of +5% to +15% or higher, let see US events today.
*
You can short FKLI
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 07:22 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Aug 12 2020, 07:00 PM)
director of rubberex have been acquired alot lately
interesting.
*
Good observation. Retailers' confidence in gloves are still very very solid. Evident when harta is still so pricy even though it underperforms expectation by 50%.

I personally think gloves are not out of steam yet. Just buy the right ones (not harta) and you should be fine. When the steam is over later, join me in long term boring counters
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(penanghomes @ Aug 12 2020, 07:33 PM)
Newbie,

Is it good to buy TENAGA warrants ?
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Stay away from warrants. Stock investment is challenging already. Derivatives are more risky. I burned a lot of my money trading derivatives in the past.

But you might be able to do better, I am a very bad trader
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Aug 12 2020, 07:00 PM)
director of rubberex have been acquired alot lately
interesting.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 12 2020, 07:24 PM)
Top Glove boss acquired 1mil share yesterday and another 1mil share today too. Discount too big to ignore.
*
Looks like Topglov, supermx and kossan are the safer bets now. Bye bye harta
Looking forward to see topglov and kossan report

When the gloves hype is over, join me in the boring long term counters =D


QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 12 2020, 07:52 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 12 2020, 08:08 PM)
I see it happening on Friday, but will ready bullets tomorrow if they start ahead. Possibly can reach 30 for TG this time if company directors buy so much.
*
Another catalyst for gloves, but remember to buy the right glove counters. Not all glove counter make the same EPS
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/132121...ngolia-lockdown

So I guess glove hypes wont be over soon, if you wish to diversify some into other long term boring counters. private message me =D
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 12 2020, 10:58 PM)
Normally gloves counter work in group. If 1 go up, then the rest will too.

ir rubberex go up, comfort and careplus might tumpang glamour  laugh.gif
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Thats why harta so trash, share price also so high...
HereToLearn
post Aug 13 2020, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 13 2020, 09:17 AM)
Good. The higher the better. Recover all my losses.
*
Dont aim to recover loss only, your supermax is backed up with with extremely solid fundamentals, that might be even studier in the next few quarters.

Just hold until bonus.

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
Meanwhile, to diversify some into the FI sector. Buy
1. BIMB
2. CIMB
3. Takafu
l
HereToLearn
post Aug 13 2020, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 13 2020, 09:19 AM)
Look at Harta fly....
*
Harta is too overpriced (its fundamentals not worth its price), not worth your risk. Let the traders trade only. At least supermax, if traders dump, you have solid reasons to hold and buy more

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*

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