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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 11 2020, 06:30 PM)
None of the counter you mentioned are cigarbutt, as none of them is trading under fair value. Hardly hot stock can be cigarbutt, its exclusive to each other.

Cigarbutt are those like cheetah cooperation bhd. Where the business is down trending, and if you liquidate everything and call in all it's creditors plus cash on hand you still have more than the total current market equity value.

But yes, if wanna goreng with low downside choose stronger fundamental company. Anyway supermax is not one i would choose. Stanley and Co does not have very good reputation. In croc pond bursa, before you trade or invest always see the company directors and major shareholders.

Directors first company fundamental second.
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Opps, if supermax with such a good qr is also not trading below fair value (using forward PE). Then, all other gloves cannot buy ady, as others are worse.

Time to go back to oversold blue chips, my friends.
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 08:51 PM

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Just book your profit/cut your loss in pennies and move on...

News (without the fundamentals backing up or without proven QR) are there to lure public for distribution by syndicate traders

Even if amazing QR is out for PENNIES, dont buy just in yet. Wait for few consistent and predictable QRs to prove the companies' abilities to maintain profitability. If still undervalued by then, only jump onto the ship. Yes, you might miss out a large chunk of gains, but it is a much safer this way especially for the pennies.

With that being said, it is much safer to avoid gold, pharma and harta (proven underperformed/below expectations QR).
Maybe, it is a good time to start slowly collecting other undervalued gems that have not gained too much attention from the public

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 11 2020, 08:54 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 11 2020, 08:55 PM)
Been looking for the past 3 hours, still didnt able to find a stock suitable to goreng. Market so volatile this week, until its become so hard to predict.

Need to cover up my potential losses in bornoil just in case shit happens laugh.gif
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Your TG and supermx covered the bornoil losses already lol
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:03 PM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Aug 11 2020, 08:59 PM)
Bad news to Gold counters tomorrow..

user posted image
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GG. Pray hard for all the fallen comrades.

If you really want to chase high with the hope for quick gains to recover all the losses, go for supermx. By far the safest glove counters for now.
Else start buying counters heavily dumped by the public with good fundamentals intact.

I havent touch any trading stocks since MCO because of my bad experienced in the past losing everything i earned including initial capital via trading.
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(yahiko @ Aug 11 2020, 09:00 PM)
Kind same with me.. like if I don't investment it( parking) hold long.. I will just spend it where else.. still gone.
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The retailer confidence in gloves are still very very solid, MAYBE can stay to goreng a while more, still have 2 - 3 more months for loan repayment deadline.

OR

start SLOWLY collecting undervalued gems with me in other sectors =D. There is a possibility that they will drop more even though they are undervalued
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 11 2020, 09:07 PM)
Agree with the statement. Tg is another which is a safe bet.
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From my (only valid until proven) attitude, ONLY supermx is safe for now.
But I am very looking forward towards topglov QR, since it is the largest glove producer in MY.
IF ONLY it is not heavilly into OEM (but into OBM like supermx), its QR will be nearly bullet proof.

Still when you are done with the roller coaster rides, join me in finding gems in other sectors. But again, DO NOT PANIC BUY, slowly collect as every stocks is exposed to the risk of dropping more after moratorium.

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 11 2020, 09:15 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 11 2020, 09:10 PM)
bro can share ur story? what u bought that made u such huge losses? penny stocks?
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Not actually big losses (about 15-16k) compare to my portfolio. But still painful cause it is all hard earned money
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(yahiko @ Aug 11 2020, 09:14 PM)
Boss.. that is my whole capital dy.. lol
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You will get there when you start working and invest slowly for the long term. For a student, you already have a lot.
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(immobile @ Aug 11 2020, 09:25 PM)
hehe tg and captain harta or king supermax?  rclxms.gif
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Captain harta = captain holland
Share price has dropped 6 days in a row
QR macam cacat, underpeformed by 54%. Book you profit and move on


QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
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This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 11 2020, 09:52 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 11 2020, 09:52 PM)
I beg to differ with your opinion that only supermax is safe.

Supermax achieved this amazing profit margin by charging absurdly high prices to their customers and cutting off distribution agents which helped them grow.

They have to manage the relationship with their customers and middleman very carefully. People remember what you did to them in times of distress.  If Supermax does not manage this carefully they will find themselves in a tough position when the market tilts towards an oversupply situation
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cutting off distribution agents - fake news
Proof?

charging absurdly high prices - fake news, just charging the market price will give them more much profit margin than any other glove makers in MY. It is unlikely that other glove companies will be able to beat supermx's profit margin (because less 1 middleman in the chain) due to it being the only company that is heavily into OBM.

Topglove and any other gloves' OEM business model:
Toplogv --> Middleman (OEM) --> distributors --> end users (at market price)

Supermx OBM busines model:
Supermx --> distributors --> end users (at market price)
*No middleman to suck off profit (A LOT OF PROFIT).

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 11 2020, 11:06 PM
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 11:04 PM

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QUOTE(flashy4896 @ Aug 11 2020, 10:55 PM)
now sititng NICE bunglo. if cut loss 50% very pain.
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If you continue holding, you might revisit sapura or velesto chart.
Just saying there are still other grasses out there for you to recoup your losses.
HereToLearn
post Aug 11 2020, 11:06 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 11 2020, 11:05 PM)
In bursa, only buy counters that will likely in the news in a few months time.
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Banks? they will make a comeback with economy recovery
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Aug 12 2020, 09:21 AM)
should I average down my harta? lol
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Rip gloves, harta has been confirmed underperformed, book profit and move on
Harta = Captain Holland, 7 days drop in a row

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(KSMMA @ Aug 12 2020, 09:36 AM)
question is where will investors park their money once they cash out ???
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FD? mega_shok.gif

Or maybe go for supermx as its TP was upgraded by IBs.

Or slowly going into other sector stable counters with long term (5-10 years time frame)
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Aug 12 2020, 10:03 AM)
cry.gif  cry.gif  cry.gif

dont even dare enter now eventho gt some bullets
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All EMAS die... The chase high traders will eventually cut their losses their. Book your profit while you can

-20% ish

This post has been edited by HereToLearn: Aug 12 2020, 10:06 AM
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 12 2020, 10:07 AM)
I bought some glove stocks counter  this morning for trading.

My Harta is bleeding. Holding on.

YTL REIT is performing nicely.
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Harta = Holland
Cut loses and move on

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 12 2020, 10:27 AM)
is RM 25 good entry point for TG today?
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IF QR later below expectation, will go to holland like harta
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 12 2020, 10:34 AM)
Free fall for the glove counters.

I am going in all out on a suicide mission.
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BRO!! If you really want to do so, DO NOT TOP UP HARTA. Supermx is a wiser choice
HARTA is really HOLLAND

At least Supermx has about 33% upside from current price.


QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 11 2020, 03:26 PM)
Just sharing so we all get to make more sound decisions (if anyone is invested in gloves) as not all gloves counters are the same.

Net profit after tax/Q required for market consensus PE of 25 (which does not account for other factors such as ROE%):
Topglov - 866m
Supermx (Jun 30) - 312m (actual 399m), oveperformed by 28%, PE 25x = rm30.58
Harta (Jun 30)- 476 m (actual 217m), underperformed by 54%, PE 25x = rm6.49
Comfort - 151 m
Carepls - 87.92 m
Ruberex - 18.8 m
Kossan - 243.5 m
Source: https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-...d-sustain-rally

We should also include other factors such as ROE into account,
Supermx = 103.64%
Harta = 32.44%

Generally, higher ROE justifies higher PE.
E.g Nestle 5y avg ROE 95%, PE 52
However, we should not compare Nestle with gloves, as Nestle can maintain its profitability after covid. Gloves most prolly can't (with reduction in ASP after 1-2 years - with the pre-book orders filled).
Just an example to show you that if ROE is extremely high, PE can go above 25 and is still considered fairly valued.

As of 11/8/2020, SUPERMX is the best buy. Will keep you guys updated here when other gloves' QR is out.
*
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 12 2020, 10:37 AM)
I've decided to run for HLT and Careplus. Whatever I have left.
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Whatever you do with the remaining money left, DO NOT TOP UP HARTA
HereToLearn
post Aug 12 2020, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(triple02 @ Aug 12 2020, 11:08 AM)
grats man  thumbup.gif ..your money afterall

go pump up Supermx pls laugh.gif bought at 18.XX, today can break back into 20 hopefully..

help me cover my tuition fees
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LOL

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