so we are waiting for this combo, world financial meltdown + M'sia political meltdown?

I can't see the future.. but if KLCI continue to fall this week I will start to feel very tempted to sapu some of the Blue Chips.

So I guess my post is a reminder to self, not to go overboard.

I was reading this article:
https://investorplace.com/2020/02/5-vanguar...warren-buffett/

what do you guys think about Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) and US short term treasury ETF (VGSH)?
does the value of VGSH go up if US goes into recession?


but how long does it take to recover? say, how long before Maybank returns to its past glory of RM10?

This post has been edited by moosset: Feb 25 2020, 12:58 AM

Consumer staple is defensive equities. Like Nestlé stock here. Ppl still have to eat. It wil drop in a recession, but not as much as the benchmark.

VGSH, yes will go up in a recession. But TLT will go up much more.

My crystal ball not working well. But I think I can see 2Q2022. 😆

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 25 2020, 12:48 AM

For me, I will just stick to my favourite QQQ ETF and keep buying if it falls.
Moving in and out incurs fees and the chances of messing up is high.

If I remember, treasuries, bonds and gold is sometimes unpredictable during recessions. Why? Let's take gold for example. Gold in recession tends to go up. However! There are also people who bought gold long before the recession and will sell gold when it's high to buy the cheap stocks. Hence, no fixed rule saying gold will always go up.

so you're ok with little to no growth from now until 2Q2022 then.
and you expect m'sia economy to recover in 3 years. I see.

about VGSH, why short term? why not medium term or long term?

same here. I mostly stick to S&P500, Nasdaq100 and Tech ETF.
but just in case the US growth has come to an end, would be nice to have some backup. Thinking of setting 10% in consumer staples, although I'm already in about 5% in dividend aristocrats.

This post has been edited by moosset: Feb 25 2020, 01:14 AM

Yes, happy to wait IF I'm getting 6.5% income per annum.

But of course, now with this political upheaval, not so confident.

Short term vs long term Treasuries

Long term treasuries will increase more if there is a recession, but what if actually this recession doesn't happen? It will fall in price more. And the dividend/interest which is not so great to begin with may not cover that loss of Capital.

So short term is less risky then long term. Less price volatility.

Medium term: It is somewhere between the two. In fact, I tend to prefer medium term.

Btw medium is usually called Intermediate

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 25 2020, 01:32 AM

Blood on the street this morning.

With US market down by virus and political turmoil. Super great recipe man.

KLCI back up above 1500 level.. Can stay tabove that for the day?

yes thanks, not to go overboard.

Which bluechips are your favourite?

Hi, I want to open a Maybank Share Trading accounts, I browse Maybank website, apparently there are 2 platform:
1. Maybank Investment Bank
2. Maybank Equity Investment Center

Which one is better? How is the transaction fees differs ?

Give your comments plsssssssss

I keep an eye out on several of the normal big names. Maybank, Public, Petchem, Tenaga etc. Right now eyeing Genting.

Looking at Berkshire's top 10 portfolio, they are heavily invested in AMEX and APPLE.

but is AMEX still relevant? Even Diners Club also almost unheard of now.... AMEX still earning lots of money?



but bonds ETF are different from bonds right? For bonds, you capital is guaranteed at the end; but for ETF, no such capital guarantee?


Attached thumbnail(s)

KLSE gonna be very bad tmr, look at US equities index now, brace yourself

This post has been edited by oOoproz: Feb 26 2020, 03:18 AM

still above 1500 for now, keep it that way

seems locals here are more concerned with Tun than wall street

Incorrect.
Bond capital is never guaranteed. Bond is subjected to default risk especially those junk bond.
In fact, one can lose money in bond if it is defaulted.

Bond ETF is similar to bond fund or bond unit trust except it is traded in open market, just like any other ETF.

since we are expecting a recession as the nCOV gets worse, which currency is likely to appreciate based on past experience?
I feel like every country other than US looks gloomy.


ah, yes. I mean, you get your original capital at the end of the maturity if the company/country doesn't go burst.

USD, Yen are always considered safe heaven in economy trouble time.

Mind that, you can lose money in bond even hold until maturity.
JP Gov bond and German Bund are trading at negative yield...

Many bonds are traded above its face value, that's why we see some bonds although give 5% based on its face value each year, but yield to maturity is 2~3% only.

Nowadays, needs to be selective to pick up good stocks. Broad based or market may be gloomy, but there are pocket of opportunity, and certain stocks are still performing relatively ok.

If we look the other way round, without doom and gloomy perception by many, you won't have stocks selling at cheap price.

Bond is only capital protected if u buy from issuance and hold till maturity. If in between you sell, then there is potential for capital loss or gain.

And yes there is also default risk. The safest bonds are Treasury bonds issued by a country in its own currency. This is because a country can always print more of its own currency. However, u still have currency risk if not MYR.

A bond etf is just a fund that tracks a bond index by buying the bonds. But it is not capital protected because there is no maturity.

I hv corporate bonds to hold till maturity for income. But I use bond etf for asset diversification purposes, n prefer treasury ETF as they hold the safest bonds. The price move inverse to interest rates.


USD is a safe heaven currency. Sfr n JPY are the others. But if u really expect a recession with the virus, the bond etf and gold are better.

Safest is gold. Some recommend Bitcoin
If fiat money then I guess it is USD or Yen.
But right now, the virus is involved. Meaning if Japan fails to contain the virus, high chance it will depreciate.
So maybe you can bet on the country that can properly contain the virus or no people infected.

Bond ETF is just like a bond but like an 'average bond'.

Not really a good example but here goes:

Let's say there is a bond ETF comprising of 80% AAA, 15% BB, 5% B grade with par value RM1000 and 4% annual coupon.
Now if all 5% of B grade bonds default and the companies go bankrupt without paying anything, you are still left with 80% AAA and 15% BB.
So your par value in theory becomes RM950. Coupon payment may drop because B grade bonds cannot pay.

This means there is no 100% guarantee you will get back your par value when it matures BUT high chance of getting something back.
If invest in 1 bond alone, you may lose everything.