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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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MedElite23
post Jan 11 2021, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(lostxkitten @ Jan 11 2021, 08:01 PM)
glove stocks seems safe, but doubt if it can go sky high (again).
maybe the vaccine will.
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from business point of view, the profit margin for vaccine counter is capped as they do not manufacture it, but only repackage and distribute it, and hopefully earn some peasant moolah in the process of doing so. Another thing is vaccines will be available in the government setting, those who opt for vaccination done under private setting will have the cost fixed at a certain rate decided by the government. Essentially, there's really not much "meat" to eat. Share price surge in vaccine counters will not be tally to their profit, hence unsustainable.

Just my 2 cents. smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 11 2021, 08:25 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 11 2021, 08:17 PM)
Malaysia lockdown glove stocks will fly? MY got need so much gloves or not. Small country nia.

Anyway I only hold 2 stocks... Insas and Homeritz. Both cash rich, debt free. Don't care... Besides I think health > money.

Personally I see mco2.0 as a way to curb interstate travels during CNY. They knew very well this wouldn't do much, other than to curb others from spreading it to other states which are not so serious.
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Bro, can share with us what do you find attractive about Insas? I see "stockraider" from i3investor is a fanatic of this company haha..
MedElite23
post Jan 11 2021, 08:29 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 11 2021, 08:23 PM)
Based on recent subsequent lock down trend in uk ftse. I dont expect any gap down, maybe even go up slightly cause many wanna buy the dip.
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That my friend..is possible lol.

tomorrow recovery theme related stocks will either:

1.) gap down in the morning and consolidate at a lower price point, remains so throughout mco2.0.

2.) gap down in the morning and rebound quickly as many people are mentally and cash prepared. biggrin.gif

3.) today's dip already priced in for mco, so might even go green.
MedElite23
post Jan 12 2021, 01:40 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Jan 12 2021, 09:55 AM)
just some sharing on my personal ideas. i started building my portfolio since 2013. back then i was a total noob and do trading in-out-in-out and lost some of my pocket money. i remembered how i lost money in topglove. yes the worker bully case that sink the gloves shares. i had to cut lost and the next thing happen - H1N1 comes in and the stock easily double from the lowest. a big big mistake made

after a few more stocks trading and lost a few round of money. i decided to stop trading and start buy shares in small batch and forget about it. leave it there and let it just grow or die.

so i have think on malaysia economy and the potential is rather on the export side. when first gotten my salary, i tried hard to save 4 months worth of salary savings of RM1500 and buy hartalega. subsequently i bought into Hevea (no longer with me) and Tguan (swapped to BPPlastic when Tguan was in bad shape)

i have identify 6 sectors i should stay invested which is:-
Gloves
Plastic
furnishing and wood products
Oil and Gas
Tech
Plantation (oil palm)

in the early years, i focus on cheap shares, which means buy the lowest PE stocks, but eventually this idea doesnt work, which eventually i made up my mind and choose to switch over to the industry leader

over the time, i just throw in my salary savings at the beginning of the month (top up with dividend received to invest and buy, and top up)
maybank trade is only RM12 per trade after adding duty stamp, clearing and SST. every batches of RM1000-RM2000, the brokerage fees of RM12 is very reasonable

and if you recalled my previous post. i don't focus on 1 share in the particular sector. i rather stay invest in the top 3 leaders of every industry
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Thanks a lot for sharing your experience bro, can you share with us how many holdings you have in total now since you mentioned that you invest in top 3 leaders in every sectors..what is the rationale behind? I’m at work now, once home hopefully I got some time to share mine also smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 11:24 AM

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Morning guys, I feel like dipping my feet into the tech sector to keep for long term (3 years and above), but at a glance most if not all of them are highly valued now. Since mco2 the tech sectors are lifted with no concrete news that benefits tech companies from business POV. What’s your opinion? Worth entering?
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 14 2021, 11:38 AM)
I also feel damn expensive, thats why no buy tech, but looking at the tech index trend, it only goes up like Nasdaq.

Look into their projected NP into 2022/2023, at current price, the growth can only lower it to PE 25-35 ish.
If they are expected to still growing at this rate, then it might ok to take on the risks, but we dont know about that. That's why I dont feel like taking this unnecessary risk to buy into counters with high forward PE. Even gloves Forward2023 PE are way cheaper (except harta, forward23 PE quite close to that of tech)
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Me too, I feel local tech counters are given such high valuation just because we don’t have our own “Alphabet,Facebook”. So we resort to choosing only the few available public listed tech companies, some of which are given valuation that doesn’t tally with their earnings, they even got a boost from this mco2.0.

For that reason, I feel like now is not the appropriate time to enter tech counters. I must admit that I do not understand tech sectors well enough to give a valuation as they are fast evolving and earnings are not quite predictable. That is also another reason I’m holding back now. Probably will take time to study deeper about the sector first, while waiting for a correction that is IMO overdue biggrin.gif



This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 14 2021, 12:57 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Jan 14 2021, 12:50 PM)
The human psychology is best displayed in i3, at both ends of the extreme.
I am not involved, but it is a great place to learn from the mistakes of others.
How far is too far? What is your horizon?
Some think it will be as fast as Q2 when the vaccines hit the ground. Others are looking at 2021. People want a position in as early as possible before the uptrend starts. You see that in full effect on 9 Nov when news of the vaccine broke. Nothing more than the vaccine. No plan, no logistics nothing. Yet stocks in the market immediately jumped at the news. Primarily because it is going to happen, the timeframe of which becomes a secondary consideration.

The one risk they run is if recovery never happens.
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True, just to add on regarding the last statement of yours, eventually recovery will happen, it’s only matter of time. But before it happens, let’s cross our fingers sectors that are badly affected by the pandemic will not resort to filing bankruptcy before recovery takes place. cool2.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 01:06 PM

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QUOTE(jj_jz @ Jan 14 2021, 12:42 PM)
Anyone holding on Matrix and Magni? Any opinion on this whether to hold or release atm to go for other counter? Previously bought Magni is for Olympics but seems like its going to extend lol. Matrix is my first stock bought, and no movement since then. Looking for advices thanks
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I’m holding Magni for a few months now, so I rode through the lows of 2.30 all the way up to 2.63..down again to 2.1x now.. ain’t fun seeing my gains wiped off the table blush.gif but I’m holding on because it’s a net cash company, stable dividend payout, and Olympic had been deferred since last year and due to take place this year June. I don’t think it will be postponed again. As the organising committee intends to use Olympic torch as a symbolisation of hope in recovery.
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 01:10 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Jan 14 2021, 01:02 PM)
One thing I learned from 2020's market is this. Our definition of "overvalued" may be different from Mr. Market's definition.

Gloves' historical PE last year reached above 50 at certain months, with some reaching 100. But Mr Market continued buying frenzy, with no concerns of stocks being overvalued. Now, gloves' historical PE is at reasonable levels, but Mr Market is reluctant to push prices up.

Mr Market doesnt think tech stocks are overvalued, ignoring high past PE of tech of >50 like Mi, Penta, etc.

So, even if you buy something which you think is "expensive", you still can profit if Mr. Market thinks it is "cheap" & keeps pushing the prices up.

Ultimately, it depends on your investing style. My style is, I won't buy when I think a stock is "expensive" despite Mr. Market thinking it is "cheap". I would prefer to wait until the stock comes to a reasonable valuation I'm comfortable with. But I know friends who invest on the market trend, like gloves months ago & tech stocks now.
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Yeah bro, agreed. Sometimes our valuation means jackshit if mr.market thinks otherwise haha.. but as I said I don’t know the industry well so I don’t quite know how to value tech companies..just that at a glance, their share price has risen so much in matter of month(s), so I don’t feel safe to jump in when the rise is steep. By doing so now only means FOMO..whether one wants to admit or not tongue.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(Duckies @ Jan 14 2021, 02:48 PM)
Definitely can hold long. They promise to double the share price in 5 years time in their AGM which mean 25% growth a year. I plan to go in after they give bonus cause I was a bit late to the party previously but somehow the price still keep going sweat.gif
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Same man, I was planning to start a position after some correction post bonus issue, but the share price ain’t coming down as we expected lol. Damn. Shall wait it out then.
MedElite23
post Jan 14 2021, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Jan 14 2021, 04:36 PM)
glove prices looks tempting, though it may continue to drop tomorrow
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I’m not going to miss the chance this time if Harta drops to 10.50 tongue.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 14 2021, 04:41 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 08:18 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 15 2021, 08:15 AM)
Hate to say this: newbie asking to buy Tesla? This must be the top of bull market right?hahahaha
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If there were a sign as to when should you sell, this is one.

On a serious note: don’t jump into Tesla now, it’s all time high. laugh.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 08:36 AM

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QUOTE(lauwenhan @ Jan 15 2021, 08:26 AM)
Nah dude I’m not saying don’t jump into Tesla.
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I am, though. tongue.gif

But as always, to the one who asked this question, do your own due diligence, if you have faith in it go ahead. All the best! smile.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 01:16 PM

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Guys, something irrelevant. Just wanna advise ya’ll to really take COVID-19 seriously already. Stay home and really, really take good care of your own hygiene. We’re in a much, much dire situation compared to Dec-March last year.

Since the start of mco, I’ve been dealing with many patients whose family members/friends tested positive for covid and came to ask direction of help.

Our healthcare system is heavily burdened, we have to defer usual follow ups and attend to more severely ill patients, and I’m being modest here.

Take care everyone.

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 15 2021, 01:20 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Jan 15 2021, 02:43 PM)
Yes, back then the local IBs keeping singing the high TP for that counter, saying how good it was gonna be despite the expensive valuation.

Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return that the business which underlies it earns.
At this price, better dont touch
Hahaha, dont touch, you need to see beyond dividend yield... Look at its revenue and profit y-o-y, keeps decreasing every year. U will get fcked up holding that stock.
Is Covid is actually that serious though? One of my family member actually got covid, but it was like a normal flu to him/her, discharged already.

Despite staying under the same roof, none of us except he/she got it. We did not practice social distancing and wear mask in home before he/she was tested positive. We did not practice social distancing and wear mask in home after he/she was discharged
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Indeed some patients are asymptomatic while there are some with just mild upper respiratory tract infection symptoms like cough, runny nose, headache. These people are mostly made of young adults with no co-morbidity.
That’s why we advice people to keep social distance, wear mask etc, because while your immune system may be strong enough to trigger only mild symptoms in you, you may transmit the virus to people around you who are more immunocompromised like your parents.

Your parents are more likely to have some kind of physical illness such as diabetes, chronic pulmonary respiratory disease, or autoimmune diseases requiring long term steroids ingestion, this puts them at high risk of catching he disease, and trust me once they contracted the disease (touchwood), their symptoms will not only be your usual cough runny nose. They will present with shortness of breath and very bad findings on chest x ray, requiring mechanical ventilation before succumbing to the virus.

Thankfully you and your family members are fine. Not everyone is lucky like you. There are some (I’m being modest again) elderly who didn’t even managed to be sent to hospital for treatment, they ended up passing at home. These aren’t covered in your mainstream news. You’re reading this from first hand.

MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(wayton @ Jan 15 2021, 03:07 PM)
Even vested interest in glove, it is unnecessary to discredit the vaccine.
Vaccine is not 100%, and covid is not likely to varnish totally, highly to become flu like situation or seasonal, but it has certain extent to control the situation.

People died after taking vaccine, is not necessary died because of vaccine.
There are also people died after taking the vaccine in the 3rd phase trial, but not because of vaccine, but other causes or even natural death. 

We have people thousand of people died each day(not due to covid) due to various reason, from natural death, chronic disease, accidents etc.
When your sample size is large in million, then very likely one of those stat will be inside the monitoring data.

Especially with vaccine roll out targeted elderly, it is more easily have data of people died inside the monitoring group.

There are people develop complication or allergy to vaccine as well, which is always norm in medical field. Even ordinary medicines, very small percentage also may develop allergic reaction which depends on individual.
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Yup I agree that we shouldn’t always correlate vaccines with gloves. The comparison is meaningless and absurd, and it only happens in the stock market lol.

Because as far as glove is concerned, we already know. Vaccines or no vaccines, the glove demand has gotten a boost from the pandemic, but even without it it has already been increasing, and will continue to increase after the pandemic,period.

Just a remark, while some people may develop allergic reaction like itchiness, rashes, or swelling to drugs (vaccines), the number of people who die from drug administration is negligible. In this case, we are worried of anaphylactic shock, which can be easily treated by intramuscular epinephrine/hydrocortisone. smile.gif

This post has been edited by MedElite23: Jan 15 2021, 04:51 PM
MedElite23
post Jan 15 2021, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 15 2021, 05:00 PM)
this is an example:
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Yup, it’s not entirely the healthcare ministry’s fault too. We’re talking about a once in a century disease, no one knows exactly how to deal with this, given the short amount of time we have. Protocols are coming out, but whether or not all healthcare workers are well informed to execute the plan given, is an entirely different story.
MedElite23
post Jan 16 2021, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Jan 16 2021, 02:56 PM)
Top glove factory affected by covid again, wonder if there's any impact again on the share price:

https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/559199
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This crap is endless lol..how many times can we price in for the same news ah? tongue.gif
MedElite23
post Jan 16 2021, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Jan 16 2021, 04:02 PM)
Never know it may go up instead cos ppl now think the reverse. Kilang covid=tutup=less glove=Asp up. Some more news about not enough containers to ship the gloves. More glove shortages!!
Seriously Smax is in the best position to take advantage especially once the US & UK factories are in operations.
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it’s very possible lol.

Like when we expected sell down after mco and darurat, mr.market decided to be manic instead. Haha.. biggrin.gif


MedElite23
post Jan 18 2021, 04:30 PM

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Where’s Boon? It’s been awhile since we heard from him. I hope you and family are well.

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