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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Aug 25 2020, 05:06 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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today a happy day? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 25 2020, 06:16 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 23 2020, 11:42 AM)
Kossan coming QR PAT min 120mil and max 150mil

so far Harta 200mil and spmx 400mil result quite near to my calculation.

let's see how's near with Kossan and TG result.
*
Kossan giving bonus issue eh? Didn't expect that.

But still, I expect some toilet flushing. biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 25 2020, 06:21 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 25 2020, 05:46 PM)
Happy to help/share biggrin.gif, will update u guys when Topglov report is out, but I doubt will beat market's expectation la
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QUOTE(theberry @ Aug 25 2020, 06:07 PM)
If tg director buying at 24 suppose pat will above 600m
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actually I am curious what is TG's market expectation?
skty
post Aug 25 2020, 06:34 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(theberry @ Aug 25 2020, 06:26 PM)
At least 600m mostly 800m for me
*
800mil is minimum lo... biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 25 2020, 08:32 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 25 2020, 06:47 PM)
866mil close two eyes also can achieve lo... biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 25 2020, 10:53 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Slipperyslopes @ Aug 25 2020, 08:41 PM)
Your prediction for Kossan was spot on  notworthy.gif
Mind to share what’s your prediction for TG this quarter?
*
I will share out my estimation once the date is near or once I accumulate enough of TG biggrin.gif

sorry ya but I did give many hints in my few previous posts already.
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 01:02 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Slipperyslopes @ Aug 26 2020, 12:42 AM)
Understandable, I’m looking forward to it!  rclxm9.gif
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I am also excited because this will be a historical moment. Maybank siam tepi! Although its temporary biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 11:29 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 26 2020, 10:35 AM)
those that buy supermax, i wonder they think how the next quarter profit will be like ? 600m ? 800m ?

Atleast TG you still can gamble abit on 1.x bil profit. But i'm feeling most likely its 800mil range.
*
based on this forecast, I guess you have stop buying / start selling / didn't buy at all.

that aside, today is another shopping day!!! woohoo! icon_idea.gif
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 02:56 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 26 2020, 12:15 PM)
They are all overvalued.  icon_rolleyes.gif

Careful don't miss the departure train, covid don't come twice in short succession.

Some stock you can still make mistake and it will recover back to old high.

Some, especially situational effect one i usually don't keep long. Buy for fun got la, scalp here and there but never invest.
*
many people thought glove stock price will only get affected when vaccine come.

that's the reason why I foresee many will get stuck in Presidential suite because they only pay attention to vaccine progress. biggrin.gif

the one who really do homework and know how the industry works, will invest calmly.
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(Zoo Howl @ Aug 26 2020, 03:10 PM)
What happen to dpharma?

Keep drop....
*
Ask yourself. What happen to DPharma that justify its price increase first? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 03:52 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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spmx today in out like that get 10%

so good biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 05:40 PM

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wow. seems like everyone suddenly become optimistic about bank based on AmBank QR? thumbup.gif
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 05:59 PM

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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 05:43 PM)
I am always optimistic on banks in the long run, but i do hope the next QR for banks will get fcked up. I want MORE maybanks at RM5-6  rclxm9.gif, else I will just get more CIMBs as CIMB is trading at a much more attractive valuation already (maybe due to the hinleong and hontop scandal  rclxm9.gif )

Yeah maybank supporters will bash me later
*
I am talking from business point of view. Banks future QR will definitely f up, especially in 2021.

Just look at those statistic of Malaysia economy. The real situation will appear after honeymoon is over.


skty
post Aug 26 2020, 06:44 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 06:18 PM)
Kindly enlighten me on the 'real situation'. I dont quite get what you mean smile.gif

For expected NPL, banks are already 'artificially reduce' their earnings, setting aside a portion of the earnings for loan loss provision.
*
focus on the main business income source.

see what's the incoming impact to it.


on the NPL part, bank cannot include something that doesn't happen yet into "expected" NPL.

when it happen, bank will then only realize how severe it can be.

skty
post Aug 26 2020, 10:41 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 26 2020, 09:39 PM)
After something happen = credit loss
Before and anticipated things to happen = loss provision OR expected credit loss (ECL)
How accurate is their ECL prediction model, this I dont know
If you want to be safe, go for banks with higher loan loss coverage ratio?

For maybank (since a lot of maybank supporters here, I personally think CIMB is much more attractive at the current prices):
user posted image

For the details, look below
user posted image

For CIMB:
user posted image

For the details, look below
user posted image

Not sure if anyone actually goes through financial statement/balance sheet before investing. But it is wiser to do so: a lot less risk, when you know the share value.

IMO, banks are good for investments, but not good for trading. NOSH too high, very hard for sharks to collect MOST and swing it in a certain direction. Might still possible to do it, but sharks need A DAMN LOT of time to collect at low prices. But I am happy with the 7-10% dividend yield after economy recovery. This year prolly expecting less DY, but I go for long term, I am still in my 20s.
With the anti-banks sentiment, I seriously dont see how bank share prices will rise significantly.
Share price will only go up, once IBs or sharks have collected enough and start sharing news (most prolly they will use economy recovery as the trend later in 6 months - 1 year time) to push the share price up.
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You have to know what's the procedure of a bank need to go through before they treat it into NPL category.

They cannot estimate something not happen yet and provide "estimated" NPL.

The worst still not happen and nobody can estimate it because you don't know how many customer cannot pay back. It might be not so bad. It might be worst. Nobody knows for sure but statistic is very pessimistic about Malaysia economy.

There is no any sector that is bad for investment, provided you know what you are doing.

Bank might one day be a sunset industry, as there is sign of revolution in US. It might take 100 years for the evolution, it might take 10 years, it might not happen at all. No one really knows when. So there is no industry that after invest, sure make money.

The skill and experience of invest is about managing risk. Reduce the risk in every investment. Overall, win more than lose.

Everything we do have opportunity cost. Unless you have already a lot of money, I don't recommend to invest in dividend stock. You want faster growth of your money by investing in growth stock. But that doesn't mean dividend stock cannot grow. Buy cheap when it drop, when it goes back to the usual price, it's consider as capital gain as well. Opportunity cost is the very important reason why the investor who only invest based on purely fundamental and don't consider other factors, will be very slow in growing their funds.

But you have to know you invest for dividend or growth. Sometime people when initial invest, they claim they invest for long term dividend. When the price increase back to usual price, they cannot resist the capital gain and then sell. When you cannot control fear and greed, you cannot control your own life.

Don't always get attracted by dividend, ie. 10% is a very good company then only invest in those. You need to manage your portfolio well. I give another example that is outside from stock market. For example, you throw all your money into a property and rent it out. You might get RM2000 per month. But you no more bullet to flip your funds. That's why some people that have less bullet will want to sell the property for capital gain instead of getting steady positive cashflow. Grow your fund first and then diversify your portfolio.

For sharks issue, when I invest, I don't care about sharks because sharks control/manipulate price, not value of the company. I invest in business, not share price. When you own a business, everyday Mr. Market come and offer you different price to take over your business, would you consider to sell or hold your business everyday?
skty
post Aug 26 2020, 10:53 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
Senior Member
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


I sorry if you can't understand chinese/mandarin. But I quite sad to see the investment direction of some here.

I want to share this video:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=278161580...YEqw3Z2j5QsKv9l

Pls be open minded and do some tinkering about your own investment strategy.
skty
post Aug 27 2020, 05:50 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 27 2020, 01:17 PM)
the worst has yet to come. 2021 will show everything.

QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 27 2020, 01:22 PM)
I wouldn't be so sure about that. Supermax is a haven for contra and margin players. They might push up as high as possible next week before ex-date, then sell on date of split.

TG seems more of cash players.... and have the better advantage of maintaining its value even after splits. So most likely will slowly increase from now onwards until next Wed.
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spmx and kossan will have some foreign funds coming starting end of this month. brows.gif

QUOTE(ben3003 @ Aug 27 2020, 01:45 PM)
thats why the analyst sometimes cannot believe one.. sendiri need to value and see.
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analyst report if can believe, all ali, ah kau, mutu become millionaires. rolleyes.gif
skty
post Aug 27 2020, 06:10 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 27 2020, 06:03 PM)
what's the worst that could happen after coming out from lockdown quarter?
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recession? depression? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 27 2020, 06:30 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(bronkos @ Aug 27 2020, 06:13 PM)
spillover effects of pandemic or are we approaching the cycle?
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even without pandemic, its very near already to the peak of cycle

when gold price is roar high, it gives a very good indication already.
skty
post Aug 28 2020, 04:34 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(B@rt @ Aug 28 2020, 09:29 AM)
haizz my sad story... the other day I bought Karex in anticipation of their Quarterly profits bouncing back into the green and a nice announcement (which they did to announce they are venturing into gloves in addition to domdom).  Mana tau the day they announce was the day Nasdaq and S&P500 rose significantly on the back of strong vaccine news which countered their good news significantly...  I sold adi yesterday at a loss :....(

Moral of the story is sometimes you win sometimes you lose.
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conclusion of this story is you until now still don't know why you lose money. doh.gif

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