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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Aug 19 2020, 06:12 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(cofin @ Aug 19 2020, 04:16 PM)
maybe keep till i retired i told my colleague and siblings lol

i bought in at 6 leh ...5 topup ... 4 topup .... 3 topup ...gave up dont want look at it anymore
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admit your own mistake and don't avoid to confront the problem

that myvi can be easily earn back if you treat it as paper loss and switch to uptrend counter.

bank might be another sunset industry looking at whether the revolution will be successful in US.
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 07:36 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(rubrubrub @ Aug 19 2020, 07:28 PM)
Tissue Paper
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sweat.gif laugh.gif
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 08:53 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 19 2020, 07:17 PM)
I disagree, investment banks are sunset industry (what buffet threw), commercial banks are not (what buffer bought). If fact, they are going into virtual banking/fintech etc. Just hold tight tight.

If you cut loss here go into gloves, and dont have the luck.
When gloves crash and banks go up, you lose both side.

But if you are good/lucky: cut loss here, buy gloves, earn profit then rebuy banks back.
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don't ever ever follow anybody to buy stock. He/she will bring you go Holland, no matter he/she is the mighty Warren Buffett or whoever.

below bolded words say it all.

but if your own study and research say bank is still worth holding, then by all means hold it. You have justified the holding is worth the wait. But don't ever say because Warren Buffett buy bank so bank still good. That's not the way of investing.

Warren Buffett f**ked up when he bought airline shares, and I know a lot of people follow suit to buy AirAsia. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 19 2020, 07:40 PM)
For today, overall the gloves movement looks good. Stable increase, and not much selling pressure. I think we can safely say gloves counters are back, after a round of ultimate turbo washing machine  laugh.gif

Just want to share something here, which is: just because a big majority agrees on something, it does not mean the something is true. Hope all of us learn something from this few months, and apply it in future to invest/trade better.

Most important is, be confident of yourself, and dun get influenced easily by others. Even if we are going to holland, i would prefer me myself that drives myself to holland, instead of other ppl drive me to holland unwillingly. I am sure most of us is like this too.  biggrin.gif  The failure caused by own self belief is not as hurtful as a failure on us which caused by others.

I am sure there are many new traders here, and some could be losing money, some winning money. Losing money is ok actually, as long as we learn something from it. Everyone here sure had loss a big amount of money too in the past, so no big deal there. Dun worry, u are not a failure just because u lose some money. Lets stay positive and win back the money that u had lost.

Finally, hope all of us here enjoy these few 'abnormal' months, and win big big together.  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif
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well said. That's the reason why I cannot understand why one's will want to invest in unit trust. They die also don't know what's went wrong. Forever will never improve because they don't even know why they lose money.

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Aug 19 2020, 08:06 PM)
We should cultivate an open mind in life including investment.

Whether we are in our 20’s, 30’s, 40’s or 50’s, there is always something new that we can learn in life.

Ego is the enemy. When we have a closed mind, we lose big time because we refuse to see an alternative view which could be better.

I like to read the comments or feedback of the forumers here and then do some critical thinking – does it make sense? Can I apply it to my investment or trading method? By doing that, I hope to improve myself and become a better investor.

Otherwise, we end up repeating the same mistake again and again. And end up losing money again and again.
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well said. We can never be successful if we follow market consensus. We have to beat market consensus and at the same time be open minded and not be arrogant to always think ourselves are always correct. Both are very conflicting with each other and is not easy to achieve.

Be humble and don’t stop learning. Cheers!
skty
post Aug 19 2020, 10:16 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Medufsaid @ Aug 19 2020, 09:56 PM)
the only dealbreaker (ultimate fatal one imo) for unit trust is the upfront 5.5% tax. no bid/ask spread, RM25 flat fee to switch from fund A (e.g., HK) to fund B (e.g., Asean, STI etc) without needing to care for forex. RM0 if switch to Money Market Fund (this is the equivalent of liquidating and going cash)

local ETFs are lacking in variety

oh btw. wise words to remember. the rally might be fake but the money is real
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those fund managers are using our money to learn from mistake. biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 01:05 AM

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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Aug 20 2020, 11:23 PM)
Highest conviction now for me is SE (they own shopee and you can check out their latest QR few days ago) quite happy with amd and nvda (entered recently only so flat) .

entered tesla 9 days ago, up 35%.

SE up 31%, entered 18th june
AMD up 46% , entered 20th july
amazon up 323% , entered dec 2016

my losing ones are SHLL and NIO (electric car play vroom vroom )

as you can see, i really like tech.. only non tech i am holding is MGM (banking on recovery play)

All this small small compared to the glove winners here..

main thing is, dont listen to the permabears who cry that everything is overvalued and the end of the world is coming.
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just becareful of the coming US election.

have to be carefully aware of the MP3, where to money flow to.

congrats on your earning btw. thumbsup.gif
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 12:05 PM

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TG and spmx might have another chance to buy at dip when Kossan release result biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 12:12 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Krv23490 @ Aug 21 2020, 12:06 PM)
When is Kossan's results ?
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next week lor. tongue.gif

never announce date but must release by end of August.

So next week is the last week of August tongue.gif
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 12:18 PM

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Hopefully today got chance to use my this week buy quota.

few counters under my shopping list all price hike. wtf!
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Aug 21 2020, 02:10 PM)
Genting and genm, worth entering now?
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business fundamental changed already, still thinking like 10 years ago eh? biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 21 2020, 05:46 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(RDPD @ Aug 21 2020, 04:26 PM)
Care to elaborate more?
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QUOTE(silverwave @ Aug 21 2020, 04:43 PM)
Casino is still there, i'm actually looking for good deals (in terms of share price) + awaiting the theme park opening news.  tongue.gif
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 21 2020, 04:48 PM)
Gambling and casino will not change significantly. License will also always be needed to operate a casino.

They have very strong competitive advantage. Not like topglove can open a casino or operate a themepark on top of a mountain in malaysia even if they want to.

But almost everyone can be a developer if they are rich enough.

Well change or not , the QR will show.
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Have to know the majority of customer of GENM is from where.

And then check the spreading of customers due to competition from other countries, which didn’t exist 10 years ago.

They are trying to explore into e-casino, hopefully they can be successful. If not, they will be dragged further down in the pecking order.

There is also a potential risk that Malaysia might turn into a strict Islamic country, that all those gambling businesses are forbidden. This chance of happening is very low though.

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 21 2020, 05:47 PM
skty
post Aug 22 2020, 12:04 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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more and more retailers chase in to glove counters.

pls do another wash out soon. hahahaha
skty
post Aug 22 2020, 09:28 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(prozfromhell @ Aug 22 2020, 12:11 PM)
you sounds like hoping all newbie investors to lose all their money and jump down from kl tower  dry.gif
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wa... why you so negative one... lose money is a good thing.

it's better for the newbie to lose money at the early stage rather than at the late stage.

QUOTE(Deathscythe@@ @ Aug 22 2020, 12:17 PM)
But seriously I feel there will be another wave before the split.
Lose all money still ok, if owe 💰 then more GG
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oh... there will always be wave... that's why hold tight tight is not the highest level of investing... haha

QUOTE(HereToLearn @ Aug 22 2020, 12:34 PM)
When retailers all stop buying, glove counters will crash. You might want to exit before they do...
But still, have another 2 more months before the deadline for loan repayment
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don't worry. retailer won't stop buying. when they see everyone around them earn money, they jump in as well.

it's the same as majority won't stop selling their time for money, because they think its the safest thing to do.

mindset hard to change.

QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 22 2020, 12:48 PM)
So many ppl bullish about gloves now. Make sure dun chicken out when the washing machine arrive again, lol.
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let's see what happen when Kossan QR out. Prepare bullet for 24 hours flash sales, if there is any? tongue.gif

Those who have calculated, the profit is very "nice", right? biggrin.gif

QUOTE(PSS2020 @ Aug 22 2020, 09:09 PM)
Nv ever has been so serious in studying Finance, only after I put my money into the crocodile pond, although I'm half major Accounting.. Don't rmb all ratios right after exams.. Working also don't use much in details 😆

I sold off all my SM and TG last Thursday.
Thinking to rejoin after the split.

Yes, the stress now is more on how fast I can finish readings and grab the essential skills to make decisive judgement before the party is over 😆😆
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my sincere advise is don't put in huge money in your early stage of investment.

you are guaranteed to lose money at that period so invest small and take experience.

knowledge the most is 20%, 80% is depends your own mindset and behavior.

for example, there are reason why some buy glove stocks earn money but some buy the same glove stocks lose money. biggrin.gif

all the best. nod.gif
skty
post Aug 22 2020, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(ry8128 @ Aug 22 2020, 09:35 PM)
For me, best bet in gloves is tg. My tg/spmax ratio is 70/30, haha. Hopefully i make the right decision.  laugh.gif
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thumbsup.gif
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 11:20 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ComingBackSoon @ Aug 23 2020, 12:44 AM)
Depending on the interest rate and timing of default, for every 1 loan that defaults, the bank needs to make 20-50 similar loans to make up for the loss.
To give you a recent example, Harimau bank's full year profit last year was RM8 billion. The Edge recently reported that Harimau bank lent Genting USD350 billion, of which USD250 billion is unsecured. If Genting HK defaults and Harimau bank is unable to recover any of the USD250 bil (or roughly RM1b), that is a 12.5% hit to the annual profit of Harimau bank. And this is from just ONE default.

Thats why we must watch out for bad debt especially in these times of crisis. Even more so than the net interest margin. Net interest margin is kacang putih compared to NPL.

If moving forward more and more news of huge corporate loans default gets reported, profit (and dividend) will tank very quickly. Share price will tank even before that when the fund managers cabut.

For this reason, I don't recommend touching bank stocks now. Can buy when it gets bashed down further.
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agree agree. couldn't agree more.

people who buy into bank now is playing with time bomb.

i really failed to understand their investment strategies, always invest with huge opportunity cost.

fundamental is very important but many people select stock without fulfill the first three criteria, straight away jump into fundamental analysis. Result is they have to pay huge opportunity cost for this behavior.

unless you have huge huge money that you have no choice to diversify into few industries because your every buy/sell in full force will cause limit up or limit down biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Aug 23 2020, 11:22 AM
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 11:31 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(waghyu @ Aug 23 2020, 11:13 AM)
Dont ask for collapse, else your equities also will go South. Unless you never had owned any properties.
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economy collapse will eventually happen in every cycle of economic, that's how economic works, when credit is so high multiple times of cash. Its a matter of time only.

when depression kicks in, the past norm will be replaced with the new norm.

so make sure you are at the new norm side when the time comes. biggrin.gif
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 11:42 AM

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Kossan coming QR PAT min 120mil and max 150mil

so far Harta 200mil and spmx 400mil result quite near to my calculation.

let's see how's near with Kossan and TG result.
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 11:57 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 21 2020, 12:05 PM)
TG and spmx might have another chance to buy at dip when Kossan release result  biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 22 2020, 09:28 PM)
let's see what happen when Kossan QR out. Prepare bullet for 24 hours flash sales, if there is any?  tongue.gif

Those who have calculated, the profit is very "nice", right?  biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(skty @ Aug 23 2020, 11:42 AM)
Kossan coming QR PAT min 120mil and max 150mil

so far Harta 200mil and spmx 400mil result quite near to my calculation.

let's see how's near with Kossan and TG result.
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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 23 2020, 11:45 AM)
Still ppl go for the TG and spmx, much higher volume than kossan HARTA, and the 2nd tier gloves also had higher volumes.
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not many retailers who bought TG and spmx know what's the next PAT and TP.

so I am hoping Kossan lower than market expectation result will flush out weak holders on TG/spmx.

then I can do some 24 hours flash sales shopping. my this week quota have no chance to use since Tuesday.
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 12:09 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(ZeroSOFInfinity @ Aug 23 2020, 11:59 AM)
I dont think Kossan results will do that. Those already holding Supermax and TG will hold until after Merdeka before doing so.
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we will never know but opportunity is only for those who are ready. biggrin.gif

I will never chase high even though my TP is high because same thing, we will never know what will happen tomorrow.

Value investing emphasize on margin of safety, which I adhere to it strictly.

But many misinterpret it to be below NTA/PB then only got margin of safety. That's why they say burble already burst during last round of dipping.

And due to human behavior nature of fear and greedy, majority will chase high and sell low. Due to greedy when market is rebound or fear when market is correcting. They don't know the value of the company, blindly operating based on price.

This is very obvious when many say after split the price will surge. The bonus issue will never affect the PAT, why TP will surge? I failed to understand from FA point of view but I can understand from human fear and greed point of view.

So when people buy, I sell. When people sell, I buy. tongue.gif
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 12:11 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(anakMY @ Aug 23 2020, 12:02 PM)
I got a strong feeling there will be a flushing few days before bonus issue.
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we will never know. it might be and i hope you are right so we can both benefit from it. thumbsup.gif
skty
post Aug 23 2020, 02:05 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(rocketm @ Aug 23 2020, 12:31 PM)
Just a general question on all stocks. How do you determine the margin of safety and the entry price?
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margin of safety is different for everyone.

some need 50% from the TP only will feel safe, some need 50% from the average past 12 months, some only need 20%, 30% or 3 months, 6 months, 24 months, 60 months. It's based on your own risk tolerance.

some will based on historical high, where they study the history of event which causes it, and forecast if similar event happen again in the future.

and for some, margin of safety will not solely based on price, they will use diversification, hedging, low correlation index, commodities, bonds, forex exchange, cycle analysis, etc etc as more advanced way of gaining margin of safety from their investment. For retail investor, it's hard to gain access to those information, therefore not realistic to try to reach this level.

margin of safety is depends how confidence you are with your own forecast. The shorter period of forecast, normally margin of safety doesn't need to be a lot. If for example, you forecast a TP in the next 10 years, then a bit of calculation/assumption/hypothesis error will cause huge variance on your forecast, so your margin of safety need to be higher.

generally speaking, normally forecast a growth company need higher margin of safety. Invest in a so-called blue chip company don't need huge margin of safety because you have 5/10 years of past records as reference.

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