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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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billy_overheat
post Aug 17 2021, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 17 2021, 09:21 AM)
ahh.. but this is where u and i will differ.

firstly, i dont think i would have addressed the issue 'why'...ie most of all, i would have asked myself have i made a mistake? and I wouldn't be just be sitting on losses. I have marked it down b4 on my paper trades, years ago. Made provision and included the what IF situation, ie what if I held on to the positions... so I made a remark on those cut losses on those supposedly good stocks and noted what if I held on to those losses.... and you know what, TIME.... yup TIME is the crucial factor. As you know, gains get bigger the longer we hold and surprisingly, losses tend to grow bigger the longer we hold it..... and based on my record, this held true almost 85% of the time... yup, the longer I sat on those losses, the bigger it gets... well, that was my observation...

but the intention of what I said last evening was basically how to avoid trading slumps. Poor choppy markets always is a good recipe for trading slumps... and the such stuff simply does no good to one's trading confidence... it starts to make one re-evaluate one's trading strategies/skills .... and of not handled properly, it could make the trader quit the game... wink.gif
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laugh.gif

i was sitting on green from the last purchase and a slump like this pushes me back to red again. it's a thin margin and hasnt reached my CL.

and yeah, the market is difficult hence nothing should be done at the moment. if there's another south coming, I'm out totally. puke.gif

note to self: jangan main2 when xdak benda for main2. mega_shok.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 17 2021, 10:48 AM
billy_overheat
post Aug 17 2021, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(george_dave91 @ Aug 17 2021, 11:07 AM)
Just curious, what sort of returns can one expect to get from the local market over a period of 3-5 years?

My portfolio hasn't been going anywhere over the past 3-5 years, that being said it is mainly made up of big blue-chips that are all in the red currently (no surprise given the current state of things). That being said the losses are not very bad, more so after factoring in the dividends received.

However I often do question if it is all worth it. Especially when my unit trust portfolio has grown significantly over the same period (not a fair comparison though, since its mainly invested in foreign markets). That being said I have compared my stock portfolio to some Malaysian Equity funds, and even they have done better than my Malaysian stock portfolio.

I guess, what I'm wondering is how much returns should we expect to get realistically, and if we a underperforming that should we just move our funds to UTs or other such vehicles (maybe not entirely but mostly)?

Do share your thoughts and opinions.
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It boils down to studying the market, be it fundamentally or technically or a mixed of both. The best way to learn is to look back into your purchases and list down the whys and hows, get rid of the bad decisions and do what you're good at.

If you're still doubtful, keep reading and paper trading to know yourself better. There's no sure win but there's you making all the decisions which only you know what you're good at. Cheers.

billy_overheat
post Aug 17 2021, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 17 2021, 11:15 AM)
puke.gif  puke.gif
shakehead.gif
nvm.... one day you will get it.....  tongue.gif
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I knowwwww. I got ittt. A few months ago hand gatal. tongue.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 18 2021, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 18 2021, 09:46 AM)
That's the thing...
when you gatal, and more so when u sit on handsome past gains, u tend to take on those iffy fifty-fifty bets...
that's when the losses starts...
and then you asking where has ur Mr.Mojo gone....

trading like any sports, is all about confidence..
u need to wait for those big fat juicy pitch....
wait for the one that you know you can bat for the fences....

and not whacking on every ball..just for the sake for whacking...
take this one... lol... i post cos I just saw... tongue.gif

user posted image

it looks okay for a swing.... higher lows... building up....

but given such conditions... at best it's probably a fifty five only nia......
when markets are bad and choppy...
my past win rate can be really terrible....
only about thirty or slightly more only....
how? let money rot lor ....  puke.gif
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Chart looks good. biggrin.gif

But yeah, that's the problem with me. The market has slowed down significantly after q1 and yet I forced trades hence sitting in losses now.

Good thing is, I've been scaling down a lot since last year but this really did slap me on my face for shaving off my profits. laugh.gif

Well, sitting right still. Waiting.

Waiting.

biggrin.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 18 2021, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Aug 18 2021, 12:07 PM)
http://m.news.cctv.com/2021/08/17/ARTIckJs...ONQ210817.shtml

The emperor has spoken a portion of tea leaves.
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 18 2021, 01:35 PM)
Shared prosperity vision.

Once they reform, those big tech hopefully got more retail investors and open up connect trading with sen zhen exchange.
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I wonder how's Ray Dalio now. He's been very bullish on China and with the recent drops, I wonder what's his action.

As far as what came back after googling, he's still pretty bullish though.
billy_overheat
post Aug 19 2021, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 19 2021, 11:33 AM)
billy_overheat

just saw it.... five 3 nine now....  rolleyes.gif

definitely no five sixty ... . ya... one could have got out about five nineties ... but... ya... err ....  rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif  rolleyes.gif
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It's an index rally with overall weakness on almost every other stock.

Hence, do nothing.

Some might prefer to collect on weakness too.

Me?

Nothing. laugh.gif

Ada apa boleh main?

Mr. D? LOL
billy_overheat
post Aug 23 2021, 09:06 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Aug 22 2021, 10:31 AM)
The case of price ahead of fundamentals. The lockdown doesn't affect this company at all laugh.gif

Was thinking the factory company was closed and has lower revenue due to infection and also lockdown but man i was wrong yawn.gif
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congratz on your bp, looks like it has got some huge advantage over the other companies in the same sector

gap up wey laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 24 2021, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(lowya @ Jul 9 2021, 02:14 PM)
DKSH is an oversold and undervalue fundamental stock worth watching.
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nice comeback on dksh thumbup.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 24 2021, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Aug 24 2021, 11:28 AM)
The production disruption was price in on last week. But then now everyone is looking at Nasdaq and can't resist to take a bite again.

Anyway Daniel Kahneman thinking heuristic and cognitive biasness - WYSIATI. Apply for both bear and bulls.

One good exercise is always to switch our position from a bull to a bear and vice versa regularly, to reduce our cognitive biasness.
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works when one is able to act lightning fast (that's our advantage as retailers, according to some; getting in & out fast and not acting like fund managers due to sizing),

but then it renders overtrading too

but again, one's style is always different than the others
billy_overheat
post Aug 26 2021, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 26 2021, 09:28 AM)
fuuuuuuuuhhh ...... big bull rolling...  tongue.gif
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user posted image

I have no idea with this kind of setup

one might be able to pick up lows but nobody knows it for sure

"yeah, it's bottomed" because it goes up now

what if it goes the other way round? laugh.gif

qoq/yoy were so so

even if they are posting tremendous numbers in the coming qtrs

one can still wait laugh.gif

not my money to make tongue.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 28 2021, 12:57 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 28 2021, 11:29 AM)
@billy .... see? see? see how easily the big bull rolled? tongue.gif
sign clearly was there hor ....

lol... some more got dunno what goodie good index ...LOL!
so are you scanning for more small joes?  brows.gif  laugh.gif
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That's the thing about small joes, able to fly, and able to dive within days or even intradays. biggrin.gif

Some did focus much on such stocks ehhhh but

I'm not good with such style. Did try though but going in and out is tiring to just earn a few peanuts. laugh.gif conviction wasn't enough laugh.gif

Understanding the biz itself then makes me not liking the stocks.

Yeahhh recovery, good profits etc

One huge candle and people are cheering

But zooming out, maybe this is only the beginning of the turnaround after falling pretty much for many years.

The old self might prefer to be a collector though. Spreading across various stocks to own them like I'm a fund manager, believing into mitigating risks, etc laugh.gif

And like you said, good charts are as easy as they go up

Or going down in unfavourable moments.

Are we in bulls? Seems so

But, the good old value stocks are much beaten down albeit the green index runs.

So, are we? laugh.gif

Where's tipsy? tongue.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 28 2021, 01:05 PM
billy_overheat
post Aug 28 2021, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 28 2021, 11:29 AM)
@billy .... see? see? see how easily the big bull rolled? tongue.gif
sign clearly was there hor ....

lol... some more got dunno what goodie good index ...LOL!
so are you scanning for more small joes?  brows.gif  laugh.gif
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Not doing anything particularly but

G, KOBAY, HIGH, SAM

And what else ah?

Many small joes beat big joes eh

laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 28 2021, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 28 2021, 01:39 PM)
some more asking for tipsy....    doh.gif  laugh.gif 
when i saw it .... i quickly told myself.... this bugger is gonna run... so I posted... tongue.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Me too. Lol. Especially after the first few runs by all these small counters ehh. There are some familiar setups, flags, but im still uncomfortable doing that.

Maybe let me be more familiar with such setups. laugh.gif

Why didn't buy? laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 28 2021, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Aug 28 2021, 01:31 PM)
Lately...IQ GROUP. brows.gif
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Lighting stuffs good earnings yo laugh.gif

Better cabut when it's going limit up.

88m shares will fly and drop just as fast laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 29 2021, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 29 2021, 12:54 PM)
Hohohoho .... laugh.gif

but ... just remember the 1st rule.... don't lose money. tongue.gif
Yeah... what kind of winning success can we get? Is it consistent enough? etc etc etc ... if one cannot develop a sustainable game plan over such plays, one is definitely gonna get into massive trouble... cos as it is... in such a relatively small pond, one tends to forget who we are exactly, until the big sharks shows up and shows us the meaning of life....  sweat.gif
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Something tells me you're very bullish ehh laugh.gif

Nice hahahhahaha

Ya, in such a small pond requires specific manoeuvring which suits mysf, still analysing past buy & sell to find a right kind of setup for me

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 29 2021, 01:34 PM
billy_overheat
post Aug 30 2021, 09:16 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 30 2021, 09:05 AM)
.... also... see? u dun really need to play many stocks.... find the one that you like, all you need to do is sit.... thumbup.gif

user posted image
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This is going great! Haha

Let's see whether it can sustain above 450 or not.

Sidenote,

It seems steel is making a comeback after the weeks consolidation.

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 30 2021, 09:28 AM
billy_overheat
post Aug 30 2021, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 30 2021, 09:28 AM)
For now, no need see to much... the more you see, the smarter you try to be... tongue.gif
see? dun play so many different stocks la... there's no need.
all you need is be very selective... tongue.gif
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ya right, itchiness is something need to be beaten with rotan in order to be stopped laugh.gif laugh.gif

still, doing nothing. just wait lol

user posted image

I did manage to catch this (yellow)

and sold off (red)

and reentered (yellow), suffered a bit of paper loss at the beginning then rebounded (I was overtrading sweat.gif )

doing nothing and still waiting

but the vol is decreasing and it's a bit too extended for me

user posted image

hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 30 2021, 09:57 AM
billy_overheat
post Aug 30 2021, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 30 2021, 10:07 AM)
Those lines.... try this... rid of them.... 
how?
me thinks you are good enough that you don't need it in your charts...
those lines (for a trader like you) tend to make you overthink and outsmart yourself...
if feel uncomfortable, then put it back in... wink.gif
also... this is why to develop a better edge over others, this is where fundamental reasonings helps  thumbup.gif
yup, who say traders cannot think like an investor?
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ya right, the lines create too many actions for me laugh.gif

will get rid of them and trade like investors, good entries solve almost all problems thumbup.gif

need to be better rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Aug 30 2021, 10:34 AM
billy_overheat
post Aug 30 2021, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Aug 28 2021, 01:31 PM)
Lately...IQ GROUP. brows.gif
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Niceeee laugh.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Aug 30 2021, 11:34 AM)
for me la... i find it meaningful and more comprehendible if I don't just trade based on lines/charts ....

if i just focused on lines... it becomes a timeframe trade ... where basically the time becomes an unpredictable factor as you know lines can always, always be redrawn in many, many ways.... and yup... the trades tends to much shorter... we tend to be 'forced' to make more decisions... and the more decision(s) we make, the more likely we make mistake(s)... and mistake(s) in the bloody market causes one to lose money..... and yea... back to square one.... learn not to lose money. tongue.gif

  puke.gif  laugh.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Ya, tried that and I could be fast but more actions lead to a not so satisfying win rate. Sitting suits me more. laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Aug 30 2021, 09:15 PM

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This is then the argument for value investing. As a society, we are constantly evolving from a technological standpoint. Money drives innovation and vice versa, hence, don't bet against the US, as said by you know who.

A bit too general, so the idea is to invest on index for most of the people because when we pick up companies individually, things then don't always go up.

And for those who invest/trade long terms, good companies do exist and share prices do go up significantly aka multibaggers.

How to identify them? Anyone?

PE? laugh.gif

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