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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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billy_overheat
post Sep 16 2021, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 16 2021, 09:52 AM)
Got big noise to sell tech wo .... but price still holding..... how la?
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Pagi pagi sudah stirring kopi ni laugh.gif

The taper news comes on and off, semis were still ok, in fact, holding quite well

Amd, asml, avgo, txn, etc

Many are quite stable up north and those who don't, showing reversal too.

But,

No idea. laugh.gif I'm not prophet.
billy_overheat
post Sep 16 2021, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 16 2021, 10:09 AM)
At least, you did NOT come here to warn..................
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We often see prophets giving omens them fade away

Till

That exact moment when things happen to coincide with what they say in days, weeks, months or even years

They will come back out.


billy_overheat
post Sep 16 2021, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 16 2021, 10:25 AM)
maybe in pariah land like i3 or private groups can bruff one or two......

but ... there's always a higher mountain one...

dun simply come lowyat and talk big and try to be pipe piper.....
tongue.gif
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Summoning the higher mountain ones to give tipsy

tongue.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 16 2021, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 16 2021, 10:40 AM)
nahhhh.....

user posted image
laugh.gif
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dont recycle bruce.gif

QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 16 2021, 01:34 PM)
Being right but your brokerage account doesn't show result meant nothing. Rather be wrong and stupid but outperform the market.

They should do a rules all stock gurus have to show their performance like public fund manager. Then we can separate out the wheat from the chaff. If they so good why be guru in the first place.
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last year was eye opening laugh.gif

lots of gurus teaching various stuffs and there's one and only I respect out of so many after I sort of messing with them laugh.gif

willing to show w/l records with a very coherent method, basically traded like a robot and she's good

others, laugh.gif

but that's clever marketing, just like how all those property gurus did a few years before

thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Sep 16 2021, 02:03 PM
billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 08:56 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 16 2021, 06:36 PM)
just saw this...

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/...A?ocid=msedgntp
see? so easy to goreng up a company! tongue.gif
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saw that too, uma can't do anything because it's good news rclxms.gif

98m, fly like rocket, should have stayed laugh.gif i was experimenting with low float that time ranting.gif

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 17 2021, 08:52 AM)
very meticulous. keep losses low. it's okay to have more losses cause the big wins cover.
it's possible to have such a trading system, even with a low win rate of 45%...
cut losses must be sharp, without hesitant....

yup.. I've known a couple of traders like this too... purely charts
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yeah because charts tell lots of stories for them, which kinda make sense because it's like maps, giving real time sentiments on how most (institutions and big retailers) view on the stocks, of course, together with sound fundamentals, ie, earnings

anyway, i dont know still, need to climb mountain to seek for yoda already

any higher yoda to recommend? laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 17 2021, 09:07 AM)
btw.... take that stock you sold recently....

okay... you got taken out by that long candle.... shaken... understandable...
the next day.....
it pretty much indicated the stock wasn't going to fall anymore...
and there's the saying...
if it ain't gonna fall... hell, the chances of it going back up will be good....

and this is where...
i've known traders who would correct that selling decision by buying back the next day....
just sharing la...
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user posted image

ya, take this as a case study, i've been watching this for a long time and bought my first (yellow), great run, but things weren't right and got shaken off (red, inverted hammer)

miss some part of the run and it got a split, fell but observe great strength at the bottom (pick low - not proud of this; who knows it won't fall further)

after these three trades, even i felt that it's too much. laugh.gif

tried trading like a robot, well, it's above average but it's tiring. hence decide to stick with this. pyramiding up 2nd shot

now sitting

the flag does worried me a lil but after these few days, seems like it's still holding up pretty well

ada yoga teaching various smashes or kicks? mana? laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 17 2021, 09:40 AM)
oh... let's go see ChAOoz stock recommendation the other day...

Dan and Co....
it's in the pullback phase....

1. is that it?
2. will it pullback more b4 making the next leg up?
3. wait... errr.... wait for a green closing. laugh.gif

how?

user posted image

user posted image
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 17 2021, 09:43 AM)
Eh you tell me. Fundamentally i feel its strong, but got weak qr report out soon that covers the lock down period and court money settlement.

I dont know when is a good entry haha. If you ask me anything below 0.50 is very goood. But will it get there ah ?
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i can't make any prediction but buying flag isn't comfortable enough for me yet, indeed it's in reversal but the hantu-hantu on top will definitely cutloss on strength after holding it for that long

i wont trade such stocks even fundamental wise, it could be strong

most of the time, sentiments are stronger, ie gloves

opps

i stepped on landmine d icon_question.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 17 2021, 09:53 AM)
weiii.... remember hor.... not asking u to buy.... laugh.gif

it's just pure chit chat la....
cool2.gif
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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 17 2021, 09:59 AM)
On the cutloss on strength you are right. I did exactly that and exited.

But i still like its long term story, thats why i ask boon hehe. This stock too thinly traded, need some technical perspective.
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It does look strong though laugh.gif

Low floats can make or break biggrin.gif many examples recently laugh.gif

billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(hehe86 @ Sep 17 2021, 06:03 PM)
Ah my trading style pretty similar with yours. The first yellow would be a breakout trade ya. My old me would also entered at the first yellow, but as of the now 'me', i'm not too sure about the volume is it being above average when breaking out so in turn would be hesitate abit. That volume probably was above average.

As for the first red line, i would probably sell abit/half and ride the remaining since the stock was breaking out first time and doing its first retracement. And if i'm still holding a bit, is easier for me to re-enter at third yellow line.

Thanks for sharing your thought process!
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Not that great still, I can say this because I'm stirring at green now. What if it's red? I did try to sell half or 1/4 before but it's easier to just sell it all off, peace of mind. If I'm wrong, I can always buy back albeit the risk.

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 17 2021, 06:36 PM)
Why stop at 100? not 150, 200, 300 or 500?
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First psychological round number.

It's like how we just like to tune the volume knob to round numbers.

laugh.gif

billy_overheat
post Sep 17 2021, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 17 2021, 07:51 PM)
Wah you knew Mr Lau and you never invested. Wasted man

Their relationships as long time supplier of avago is well rewarded
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It's like my friend knowing the scene in chem/raw materials are never having confidence in scientex, pchem, etc laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 18 2021, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Sep 17 2021, 09:42 PM)
Yeah, quite wasted from a perspective that has been hard for me to explain.
We would like to think the more we know about an industry the more confident we get. It is the opposite for me. Like you will not pick a restaurant for your next dinner if you spend a lot of time in the kitchen there. So I get a lot of details but the heart was never comfortable to get involved.

KC is more of a friend of a friend. Not a direct friend. I have old classmates and friends who made C level positions along the Penang semi con supply chain ecosystem. In that industry, as they say all also "Peng eu peng eu". Some of them also involved in stock groups with some local politicians but their style quite pump & dump so I never had the inclination to follow them. Cardiologist warned me to go easy already.
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What are some of the insider knowledge do you know? My relative is working in Intel, never really heard anything from him except some office politics etc.

Boss level's operation, following tips. Heard a lot in the casual conversation during dinner time. laugh.gif
billy_overheat
post Sep 18 2021, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 18 2021, 01:19 PM)
Popular origin of either prized or fake tips.
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Mostly are just some make-believes which start from "I hear that..."

QUOTE(statikinetic @ Sep 18 2021, 01:41 PM)
I want to state publicly here first that I have no insider knowledge. biggrin.gif

The info you hear is really dependent on level and in some cases the role. If you are hearing directly from C level bosses, it takes less interpretation. From admin planners or engineers, you might need to connect the dots.
I also have friends working in Intel which is a huge MNC. Chances are if they are in a senior engineer role, that is all they are going to see. Sometimes they are a supplier to a major company, and they get a huge order for specific component for next month. If you can connect the dots which products are linked to that big buy order, you have a picture of what is going to happen the following quarter. Or you see ten new lines being loaded onto the Production floor, you can guesstimate it will be running soon and affecting the total output. Stuff like this may require a bit of an understanding across the supply chain to benefit.

The lunch/dinner blow water stock tips usually in one ear and out the other for me. These fellas when start talking, the wind gets very strong if you get my drift.
I prefer to hear about the company fundamentals or industry news.
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Exactly. The level of various positions makes the dots all over places. Fundamentals are important but hearsays are always, as you said, differ in levels but it does provide some good guesstimation.

Most of my stuffs are from googling and have neither fundamentals or industry news. It will be interesting though but signs can be seen from the charts whether someone is accumulating, again, by guessing. laugh.gif knowing too much, or too little can form biases. Market, a secondary one has no direct correlation with almost anything in short term, herd/crowd psychology, manipulation, supply and demand, yada yada. It's an art and people have different beliefs. laugh.gif

And most importantly, what are some of the infos? Many leaks with the gloves last year, anything interesting in Penang side? Ramping up production, supply chain disruption, price increase, etc? biggrin.gif come give some. laugh.gif





billy_overheat
post Sep 18 2021, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 18 2021, 03:00 PM)
Any gossips contrary to popular belief will be mocked like glove in q4/20.
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Often feel hilarious for some to be offended by alternative opinions and facts (read, ego).


billy_overheat
post Sep 18 2021, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Sep 18 2021, 03:25 PM)
Ramping up production? Sudah ramp. News lines already running.
Supply chain disruption. Did not hear any news about serious disruption.
Price increase. I think the global chip shortage and the demand spike is well documented.

Inari so far able to navigate lockdown measures during MCO.
Global chip growth still going strong.
Watch the Apple product consumption. Foxconn in China rushing in 200k new workers for the iPhone13.
Inari PP done raising almost a billion ringgit. Watch for new avenues, new major customers or a M&A which may spike the price.

Risks. Watch for a slowdown in global 5G product demand.
US may get involved with tech labor in MY after going after gloves. I don't think they will.
Localised lockdown risks specific to the plant in Penang if Covid blows up. But Inari has always been able to get around previously.
You may want to track Broadcom share price for potential correlation.
PE is already high meaning sentiment is primary driver of current prices. This means volatility if negative news hits the scene.
All these you can probably get by scanning just the i3 forum anyway so I don't think I am divulging any insider info.
Full disclosure. I am not a trader. I am a tortoise investor using FA exclusively. My entry price was 3.10 back in July. I will have an evaluation checkpoint in end Q4 if to exit, or average up.
For TA, you can shake Boon3's tree for tipsy and see if any coconuts fall. smile.gif
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Thank you for your lengthy reply! Appreciated it! Many tech counters are coming out from good bases. Maybe it's time to do hunting. I often shake him, he patronized me. laugh.gif

QUOTE(squarepilot @ Sep 18 2021, 04:34 PM)
Boomers are more likely to be offended. they are more rigid in their thinking and thus making them a very disciplined traders

Strawberries? Fast angry and fast forgiving. making them far more flexible and adaptive to market
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And the third, arguing with the tape and find rationales to rationalize the buys. (Read, losses)

Did that. laugh.gif

The biggest enemy is not the others, it's ourselves.
billy_overheat
post Sep 19 2021, 08:36 PM

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Many coconuts ni. biggrin.gif

buying using TA because all the booms had happened and now the factors are all known.

Shakeout happened in the first few months of 2021 and now we see breakouts but is it sustainable? The public hasn't been that crazy yet unlike gloves last year. All the big guys need to create more and more news to unload.

Many reports are still quite optimistic though.

laugh.gif

This post has been edited by billy_overheat: Sep 19 2021, 08:43 PM
billy_overheat
post Sep 19 2021, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 19 2021, 11:37 PM)
Almost always earlier than expected.
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Always. But there will always be signs.
billy_overheat
post Sep 20 2021, 09:22 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Sep 19 2021, 11:57 PM)
How do you identify the signs? Everyone interprets the chart differently. And some even uses different yardstick to make interpretation

For me? Die die hold only ๐Ÿ˜…. Lucky there's a bull run during the pandemic. If not die also don't know what happen๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜…
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i dont hold a bag of stocks. 2 are the max, and now 1 only. hence when it's not acting normal on the trendline, i'll just go.

but of course I can't be right every time, it's not about i'm being right, it's about whether me being observant to evaluate the condition.

tried holding some for 5 years

tried intraday

tried midterm

paper profit is not ours till we realize it to become ours.

paper loss could be temporary but what fall will most probably continue to fall and the maths are working against us

so yeah

my shallow 2 cents puke.gif

any higher moutains want to tunjuk ajar a bit?


billy_overheat
post Sep 20 2021, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 19 2021, 07:15 PM)
.
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user posted image

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

billy_overheat
post Sep 20 2021, 06:25 PM

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https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/...1734919175?s=19

Anyone wants to share more about this?
billy_overheat
post Sep 20 2021, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Sep 20 2021, 07:57 PM)
Atleast got some facts and can articulate his theory and not shoot from the hip. I have been telling this a deleveraging exercise and the three red line is the enforcing policy.

But then most everyone think this is a crash, a lehman water sheed moment blah blah. The china gov already warn bank way ahead of this issues, now whats left is to let it play out and contain the fallout.

Also smart on the iron ore parts, yup that is true. China demand/supply dynamic totally control world steel prices, hence steel counter is a no no.
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he did mention he's a phd in finance or some sort. quite detailed and well explained. michael blurry retweeted him.

QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Sep 20 2021, 08:50 PM)
Moore's Law is dead... LOL
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and now we're moving into 2nm laugh.gif

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