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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Feb 25 2021, 02:08 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 24 2021, 08:01 PM)
that is true.

will tmr see bigger discounts??

RUBEREX results are very good... but as usual, good QR = stock price fall 5%?!!
*
haha. i think need to wait until 26 Feb.
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 12:53 PM

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user posted image

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 10:04 AM)
i am collecting TG... QR mar 9, expecting 30sen dividend - that alone is 5.6%.

short term, i will trade comfort, careplus.
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30cent div = 42.86 EPS

I think they should do better than spmx.

QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Feb 25 2021, 11:17 AM)
Where are the "diamond hands" of glove stocks? Despite being prepared to hold long term, my hands have become "trembling hands". Gotta say, I regretted a bit buying a bit of TG at RM5.23 today.  sweat.gif

From TG Telegram grp, looks like some have cut loss. I think most of TG shareholders already have a lot of TG & collected enough, waiting to sell now. No one wants to collect anymore.

As I mentioned before, the recoveries are now the new darlings. Tech stocks too, esp Inari, Vitrox, after posting excellent results.
*
thumbsup.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Randomization @ Feb 25 2021, 01:21 PM)
So, local IB selling to hedge their CW?  hmm.gif
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no no. Local IB sell because glove sector is dead, ASP gonna waterfall and price is going to pre-Covid level.

TG is idiot keep SBB and TS is idiot keep burning pocket money to buy share.

Now I hope to have more waterfall after this post. tongue.gif


Joking aside, got some data with figure inside.

user posted image
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 02:17 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 01:54 PM)
42.9sen eps = rm3.5bil PAT.

u r expecting 4bil?! biggrin.gif

spx last qtr eps = 41.1sen.
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haha I want big big dividend tongue.gif

QUOTE(ben3003 @ Feb 25 2021, 02:17 PM)
i smelled some sarcasm mode in this  biggrin.gif
*
"joking aside" mean joking lo. nod.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 02:19 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 02:25 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Randomization @ Feb 25 2021, 02:19 PM)
Means those so-called evil shorties (as per i3) are possibly our local IBs?  ranting.gif  vmad.gif
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QUOTE(skty @ Jan 10 2021, 12:33 PM)
I bet the FF already run. What left are LF that is burning hand now. hahahaha
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my "guess" since January. Nothing new.


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 02:22 PM)
people are expecting good dividend.

SPMX made a mistake by giving a miserable 3.8sen after such a massive PAT.
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I was brows.gif but 3.8cent make me sad.gif shakehead.gif

who knows maybe the boss team up with some people to let share price waterfall. brows.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 02:27 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 04:00 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Feb 25 2021, 02:08 AM)
haha. i think need to wait until 26 Feb.
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oh crap... I was expecting it tomorrow. doh.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 04:15 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 04:12 PM)
tmr continue la...! tongue.gif
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I want to collect <5.0 range mad.gif vmad.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 04:18 PM)
the lims started buying yesterday at 5.2x.

likely same today.
*
boss got 400mil++ from 16.5cent dividend alone

got this kind of dividend tak payah work liao. lol.

today so many counters limit up. laugh.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 06:20 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 25 2021, 05:53 PM)
Fuh. If you lose money on Hextar, please don't come and curse me OK?  smile.gif

What about the glove stocks that I entered? Esceram, Comfort, Careplus, Supermax and Top Glove? Tak mahu beli ke? Super sale wor. tongue.gif
But only if you can stomach potentially another -10% to -20% down and a roller coaster ride.

If we follow the usual Friday trend, tomorrow will be red for glove stocks. I hope I am wrong.  smile.gif
*
did you triple down this time? if got chance let you breakeven, what will you do? brows.gif

maybe this round is also another smart money push up to release. biggrin.gif

but one thing I observed is the RSS of TG completely stop after the surge start.

why? lets find out otmorrow. smile.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 07:21 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Nov 17 2020, 11:48 PM)
and just a sharing from cycle analysis:

user posted image

my 2 cents as usual.

Cheers! icon_rolleyes.gif
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this month QR is all about steel, sugar, plantation companies making tons of profit.

those are commodities.

And if you think this is the peak, you haven't seen what is the peak yet in commodities cycle.

2024 will be the peak commodities year.


QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 25 2021, 06:32 PM)
As per my earlier post, I doubled down on Comfort and Careplus. And also tripled down on Supermax and Top Glove. This is part of my averaging down strategy. There is no end to my foolishness!  sweat.gif

If I have the chance to breakeven on my unrealised loses for glove...maybe I will hold or start selling down in tranches. Difficult to say. It depends on what I have for breakfast for the day. I am only human after all.  biggrin.gif
*
thumbsup.gif

trying to check with you what will you consider. Maybe can learn a thing or two from your wisdom. smile.gif


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 06:31 PM)
he worked his butt off since the 1980s!

while many laze around at cyberforums, some talking nonsense for fun, i suppose. tongue.gif
dun talk about his 3 bil shares... if just 100k shares, 50 sen div a year = rm50k.

50k... can pay for old car, small house, utilities and occasional steaks and sushi... no need to work also! biggrin.gif

nice plan or not?! laugh.gif
*
my personal opinion is he is still working now because he got ambition and target to build a Fortune 500 company.

wealthy people mindset is totally different. They have proper financial education and they have a lot of opportunities offered to them.



This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 07:26 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 07:54 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Duckies @ Feb 25 2021, 07:37 PM)
Why 2024 will be the peak ya? Could you please enlighten this lost goat?
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this is what CA is about. This is what the CA model tell me. I cannot answer why the model tell me the turning point is shown there because it's using AI to process tons of data thrown into it.

everything has it's own cycle. Commodity cycle will peak on 2024.

the cycle sometime will run -+ 1 year or few months. That's normal because it's influenced by people.

but history always repeat itself so the cycle will always be there.

2020 was the war cycle. -+ 1 year or few months you can see US-China trade war, current Myanmar army take over, all these things.

So CA can increase the success probability in investing if we know what to avoid.

I keep saying about 2H2021. This also from CA. This is big one lo... 3 big cycles divergence. sweat.gif

but sometime cycle inversion will happen. But it's very rare. Cycle inversion mean at a period of time that we expect a turning point, but it doesn't happen, instead of turn direction, it continue to accelerate the current direction. Now, if this happen, we can be very sure that the next turning point after this cycle inversion, will not be cycle inversion anymore.

by saying this, if US market doesn't go through a correction from Feb to May, it mean a cycle inversion has happened and it will bring what is going to happen in 2H2021 even earlier.

my 2 cents.
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 10:41 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 25 2021, 09:16 PM)
Err...I don’t think I have any wisdom. I see the analysis done by some of the forumers here about market cycle and stocks and I really tabik them. They are in a different higher level than me.

Sorry, I am slow. What is it that you want me to tikam? The next hot sector or when the market is going to crash? 😃
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What you plan to do when got the opportunity to break even in gloves.

Because in the past when gloves rebound, many chase in or continue to hold resulting many have big red portfolio in gloves. I see most here intention is trading which is buy to sell higher. Not for investing purpose.

So you trade a lot, maybe you can share what is your thought so people here can have another opinion on what option they have when they get the opportunity to make that decision again.


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 10:30 PM)
gloves people, FYI:

today saw a marked changed in RSS shorts pattern:

the targets are now on harta and spmx.

much less on TG and zero on kossan which partly explains why these 2 made gains while the other 2 lost.

the shorted amount in harta and spmx today are among the highest since it started on jan 4.
let's see what happens tmr and next week.
*
don't need to worry about RSS.

see what happen to TG after they finish RSS.

today foreign fund nett inflow 144.46mil.

and surprisingly to me, EPF still continue nett buying TG on 22 Feb. I thought they stop on 21 Feb and sell on 22 Feb when TG price is down. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 10:44 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 11:13 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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Based on the fundamental data:
1) tomorrow is the expiry date of all February glove warrants.
2) nett foreign funds inflow today 144.46 mil.
3) CGS-CIMB report saying nett foreign funds inflow to gloves last week.
4) CGS-CIMB report saying nett local funds outflow from gloves last week.
5) today got total 1,471,100 units bought from 3pm-4pm which all transactions are >1000lots per transaction in Supermax. Pls note smart money purposely let public see this.

Based on TA:
1) Both TG and spmx appear doji today (a little bit of bullish doji)
2) Both are oversold.
3) Downtrend.
4) Both break support.

Questions:
1) do you think glove will up or down tomorrow?
2) will you buy/sell any glove counter tomorrow and which counter?
3) or don't give a damn what happen to glove?

Survey session. Come come feel free to answer. No right or wrong. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 11:18 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 11:15 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 25 2021, 11:06 PM)
the interesting bit is EPF had a high of 6.6% in mid november.

scaled down to 5.2% by late dec.

now back to 5.98%.

question is if they will go back to 6.6% or higher.

0.62% is >50mil shares... add the 220 mil shares shorted, that's a whole lotta buying! tongue.gif
*
they have at least 14mil shares SBL haven't return to them. biggrin.gif

but, nobody know what thing happen when they went dark last time (<5%) laugh.gif

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 25 2021, 11:16 PM
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 11:17 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 25 2021, 11:13 PM)
The big question is IF I break even.  biggrin.gif

I won't be chasing high, that's for sure. That is how many retailers get trapped in the penthouse. Buy high with the hope of selling higher. 

I think the valuation of glove stocks is now very attractive. The only question is whether the stocks have bottomed out. I am betting that it has. But I have been proven wrong in the past. Like they say, "the market can remain irrational longer than you remain solvent".

If I can break even, depending on the momentum, I will let the stocks ride. IF there is a profit, I will start selling in stages. Hopefully, Top Glove will be the last to go. They say buy the leader of the industry. Well, that's Top Glove I believe.

P/S: Some people say they will sell when they reach 10% or 20% profit. But sometimes they forgot something important, which is their entry price. They peg their projected profit to their entry price without considering the intrinsic value of the stock. For e.g. if a retailer enter Careplus at RM2.50 and he only plans to sell it at 20% profit. But the entry price may already be too high.

Conversely, if glove stocks drop another -10% or more, I have no hesitation of cutting my losses and walking away if necessary, even if it means a five figure loss. Live to fight another day!  smile.gif

My 2 kupang as usual... biggrin.gif
*
thanks thumbsup.gif

for trader reference if it helps.

good luck smile.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 11:49 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
Senior Member
4,508 posts

Joined: Aug 2005
From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(skty @ Feb 25 2021, 11:13 PM)
Based on the fundamental data:
1) tomorrow is the expiry date of all February glove warrants.
2) nett foreign funds inflow today 144.46 mil.
3) CGS-CIMB report saying nett foreign funds inflow to gloves last week.
4) CGS-CIMB report saying nett local funds outflow from gloves last week.
5) today got total 1,471,100 units bought from 3pm-4pm which all transactions are >1000lots per transaction in Supermax. Pls note smart money purposely let public see this.

Based on TA:
1) Both TG and spmx appear doji today (a little bit of bullish doji)
2) Both are oversold.
3) Downtrend.
4) Both break support.

Questions:
1) do you think glove will up or down tomorrow?
2) will you buy/sell any glove counter tomorrow and which counter?
3) or don't give a damn what happen to glove?

Survey session. Come come feel free to answer. No right or wrong. laugh.gif
*
QUOTE(skty @ Jan 4 2021, 08:45 PM)
Why wanna repel RSS?

RSS is good for investor and big shareholder.

If somehow Tan Sri SBL his share to those big boys to short, do you still think what Tan Sri does is trying to repel RSS? You are too one mind sided.

People are too focus on what is tomorrow profit. Haha.
*
Quoting what I said.

I believe tomorrow WATERFALLLLLLLLLLLLLL.

jinx jinx jinx jinx rclxm9.gif

I just trying to say everything has two sides. Don't be too confident that SBB must be trying to defend the price. Maybe TS want the price to drop. brows.gif

pls don't screw/curse me. tongue.gif
skty
post Feb 25 2021, 11:50 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Pain4UrsinZ @ Feb 25 2021, 11:46 PM)
nasdaq down again, treasury rising. hope tomorrow bursa impact dont come so fast
*
Bro, the correction will be until May.

close eye don't see will feel better.

but if you sell, better buy back after May.
skty
post Feb 26 2021, 12:08 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(New Klang @ Feb 25 2021, 11:55 PM)
About the commodities, why are multiple commodities facing shortage? USD becoming toilet paper?
*
maybe that will happen in 2028. biggrin.gif
skty
post Feb 26 2021, 01:40 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(skty @ Feb 9 2021, 04:02 PM)
I entered TBF, SDOW and SRTY before February.

But what I buy is not important for others.  biggrin.gif
*
Hello anyone who is interested.

I just exited my position on TBF with 9.4% profit.

CA telling me turning point on early March so I secure profit first. smile.gif

skty
post Feb 26 2021, 12:10 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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wa... today no counter to play. rclxub.gif

my homework done yesterday all no momentum. Can throw away the homework already. sad.gif

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