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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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skty
post Feb 20 2021, 11:54 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 20 2021, 11:41 PM)
Cis. No fun! So fast guessed correctly already. sad.gif
*
shot to the moon or rest to breath first?
skty
post Feb 21 2021, 02:13 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 21 2021, 12:03 AM)
I donโ€™t know. It shot up a lot already within 1 week. ๐Ÿ˜ƒ
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I will observe it on Monday. Overbought though. Whether it can break the resistance? Leg still got energy?

thanks!

This post has been edited by skty: Feb 21 2021, 02:19 AM
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 01:55 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(JustcallmeLarry @ Feb 22 2021, 01:01 AM)
I did see and hear many people saying something is coming in 2h2021, can share with me what is that do you see that is coming? I can understand these talk spreading last year when there was no vaccine but now with the vaccine already here you still see something bad happening????
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hello. Sovereign bond crisis doesn't involve Covid-19.

Got vaccine or no vaccine is still the same ya.
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 11:06 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 22 2021, 10:50 AM)
I getting quite demotivated with our Bursa, felt like I should channel most investment back to ETFs, less stress and sustainable returns, lol
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this is a stage barrier that everyone has to go through. Many can't cross over.

if you can get over it, you will be successful.

good luck. thumbsup.gif
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 11:13 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 22 2021, 11:12 AM)
I did tell myself that...but also doubting if it's a fine line between being stubborn (refuse to face the fact and numbers), or being convinced with our beliefs regardless of this 'temporary' situation and holding on, riding it through.

Over weekend, I gave it some thoughts. Cut loss for the deep reds, and move on. Way forward, will remain flexible with Bursa...maybe will treat it as hit and run for now, if there's anything good.
*
what stock you want to cut?
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 12:06 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 22 2021, 11:17 AM)
Gloves happy.gif more than 30k loss there...it's not a glorious thing to share out, but I think it's good to open up, lol...easier to embrace the situation when you face it, haha
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you want to cut loss and bring the money to where to earn back?
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 12:44 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Feb 22 2021, 12:23 PM)
Anyone still trapped with SCIB? My average cost RM2.25. Guilty of chasing high. Thinking should I cut loss ๐Ÿค”
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it will test weak support at 1.65-1.75 range.

immediate resistance at 2.10-2.17 range.

current price is at neither here or there.

QUOTE(Anthem 2 @ Feb 22 2021, 12:24 PM)
Am taking a snapshot of this and will return in due time to comment. This whole episode is a very interesting case study with huge dynamics at play if you care to take a very high level view of it all.
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which episode? TG or BH?
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 12:52 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 22 2021, 12:40 PM)
If you're talking about stocks, then I'm looking at bringing them to a more stable sector for long term hold, or take another stab at hype sector, lol...haven't decided yet as of now.
If you mean besides stocks, then I'm looking at ETFs. Also putting in some to StashAway for long term.

Recovery will be longgg for me, haha
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if you haven't decide what to do with the money from cut loss, then no point to cut loss now, especially it's due for rebound soon as it's currently oversold.

you need to find opportunity first then cut loss. And if you want to cut loss, you can cut when it rebound.

if not after cut loss now, if the stock rebound then you are stuck in the middle of nowhere.

my 2 cents.
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 01:04 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Anthem 2 @ Feb 22 2021, 12:53 PM)
TG and TG alone, the rest are affected in all this "theme" play mania.
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thumbup.gif

do share your review/opinion for the education purpose of forumers here.

TG currently are in the price range that I don't have yet!
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 04:25 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Feb 22 2021, 02:47 PM)
DPIH 52w high
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thanks.
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 05:41 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(SGSuser @ Feb 22 2021, 04:37 PM)
you in?  biggrin.gif

serbadk tempting again...itchy hands
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yup.

tomorrow sell.

thanks. biggrin.gif
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 08:20 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 22 2021, 06:52 PM)
Potential upside is about 20% to 30%.

Good profit YOY, declaration of dividend payment and bonus issue. The fundamental is good.

I am not sure why there is heavy selling today. It went from +4% in the morning to -10% after its QR was released today. Everything priced in already?
*
chart wise the smart money have release all their stocks on hand.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 22 2021, 08:01 PM)
now, bursa ban on IDSS, no PDT extended to Aug29... but RSS, PSS continues, i suppose:
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/susp...ded-aug-29-2021
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hahaha. we are guessing about the implementation of IDSS in my group, and the guess is spot on!

this Muhyiddin. Using stock market for politicking again.
skty
post Feb 22 2021, 11:53 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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QUOTE(Reyeskb @ Feb 22 2021, 08:25 PM)
@AVFAN, thanks for the info. A bit worrying now since the % of net short for TG has been reducing but the share price still dropping. Means shorties are winning right now...
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what's the time horizon of holding on TG? If you intend to trade, your opportunity might be gone in the near future. If you intend to invest, you should be excited by now.

if you don't really need urgently to use the money, don't need to worry smile.gif

if you have any friends that were TG shareholders and very supportive, you can try to observe when they mostly turned to bearish, you can know it's almost the bottom already.


QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 22 2021, 08:25 PM)
Hoho. Then I could be in trouble.
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I am always wrong.

Good luck. smile.gif


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 22 2021, 09:33 PM)
the rss shorts today for TG was 2.63mil shares.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/..._2021-02-22.pdf

despite SBB 10mil shares, price declined.

that means it's not only the shorts but some other sellers too... who, i have no idea... maybe blackrock, vanguard... local funds, retailers?

it's not looking good at this time but i will wait to see QR results and guidance on march 9.

if profits and ASP are still rising, the potential remains.
these shorts are now in the money for TG, spmx and kossan.

but not harta yet.... can expect more shorting on harta.
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SBB is not catalyst so don't expect it to push the price up.

just be patience and ride it out. Let those hands to carry out their plans until it complete.

after they get what they want, then we will get what we want.
skty
post Feb 23 2021, 02:08 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
Senior Member
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 23 2021, 12:36 AM)
bolded... true enough!

i am patient... biggrin.gif , will not walk away until i see ASPs and profits dropping fast.

so far, all recent QRs show they are still holding or rising.
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I don't think glove ASP is going to continue going up next month. Maybe maintain for few months and then gradually decline. Pricing are always ahead 6 - 12 months. Those are already priced in, but whether is it priced in the panic selling that cause it way undervalued, it will entirely depend on your own research.

For glove sector, we need to look beyond Covid-19. What is the profit will be like beyond Covid-19. How will the additional capacity help cushion the ASP declination.

Is the current price undervalued when fast forward to beyond Covid-19? This is the question we need to ask ourselves, depending on our holding time horizon.

If you have a finding/answer that you are satisfied and convinced with, anything else about Covid-19 cases declining, vaccines, ASP dropping, factory closure, etc are noises.

I do think there are two catalysts in the future that will make the sector hot and sexy again for trading, but those are bonus factor. We need to make sure we are well secured and not depending on bonus factor to decide profit/losses.

my 2 cents.
skty
post Feb 23 2021, 11:01 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Reyeskb @ Feb 23 2021, 08:05 AM)
@skty, I am holding TG since 20-Nov-2020 at price RM7.30 for investment purpose instead of trade. Bad timing as I bought TG just before its covid cases happen. Anyway, will hold it for at least till June this year to get the huge dividend  brows.gif

Thanks for the encouragement, sifu.  notworthy.gif
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For TG, very conservative calculation, depend on your holding period, need to take the PAT pre-covid multiply with capacity expansion in percentage, get the EPS, multiply with fair PE, at least 25x for TG, and add on the pro-rated NTA over your holding period.

if TG giving dividend, then your cost price need to reduce but the NTA also reduce.

very simple way and conservative way of calculation without taking into account any risk, catalyst or new business opportunity which you need complex modelling.

good luck. smile.gif

QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 23 2021, 08:37 AM)
I am not trading TG. I think there still is value in it.

For Hextar, I will see whether it will breach the support price of RM1.
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Hextar main support 0.995-1.03.

good luck. smile.gif
skty
post Feb 23 2021, 12:37 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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QUOTE(lowya @ Feb 23 2021, 11:14 AM)
close to my read 0.98-1.02
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thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Feb 23 2021, 12:08 PM)
Hand itchy feel like buying Comfort share. Can buy for swing trade ah?  tongue.gif  Since so many fellas bought from RM2.50 until RM7, RM2.40 shud be safe right?  (dont have Comfort yet)
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strictly applicable only for TRADING:

first test to break out from resistance 2.48 failed.

although it's currently oversold, I would prefer to wait it break out and successfully retest 2.48-2.64 before I take a chance with it. Let the bear and bull fight. Because you buy now, the earning potential is less because current price is very near to resistance.
skty
post Feb 23 2021, 08:46 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 23 2021, 03:40 PM)
Can I have some advice on the anticipated bottoming of Smax?
Thanks.
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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 23 2021, 04:15 PM)
Thanks for your response...yes, I've conceded to the fact that recovery will be unlikely, and going for long term few years horizon as of this point seems to be fuzzy, no matter how strong the fundamentals look like. So, I'm changing approach and decided long term will not be feasible. Sad case.

I think I may be cutting my Smax losses in two batches eventually.
Thanks for the console.gif losses...that's life, have to embrace it because it was our own decisions, no one else's...
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hello.

I saw urgency on your post so I will like to prioritize reply to you first just hoping to help you make a more rational and informed decision instead of a pressured/panic decision.

Pls check your inbox.
skty
post Feb 23 2021, 08:52 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
Senior Member
4,508 posts

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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 23 2021, 12:44 PM)
Lady Luck took pity on me again. My huge gamble in Hextar is paying off. Yesterday I sai lang Hextar in tranches until it was about 50% of my portfolio.

At lunch time, it rebounded +10%. My unrealised profit is about +6.38%. I sold off 2/3 of my Hextar shares before lunch at RM1.210. Still holding the balance Hextar shares.

The unrealised profit managed to cover a substantial part of my losses yesterday. May the good luck for Hextar continues after lunch today and tomorrow. sweat.gif
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good that you sold 2/3 to minimize risk.

congratz and good luck smile.gif


QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Feb 23 2021, 04:15 PM)
I have no advice for you, but I only can say, I'm with you in the same boat. console.gif  I'm suffering losses with TG & Harta now, and almost caught another knife in Comfort. (thanks to @skty, I was spared  sweat.gif )

I feel sorry for those at penthouse level.  ohmy.gif  I sincerely hope their finances won't hurt too much.
*
thanks me for what thing? hmm.gif


QUOTE(Jack Bauer 525 @ Feb 23 2021, 04:17 PM)
all of us have gone through this

i second master @skty recommendations

sell at oversold position?

the more you see the more emotionally swayed by it

switch off .. take a chill pill

decision still yours ultimately
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haha bro. now you have the experience that can help you tremendously in investing journey.

good luck. thumbsup.gif
skty
post Feb 24 2021, 11:11 AM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Feb 24 2021, 03:09 AM)
I have been busy buying TG and Smax past few days. Very very happy with my recent purchases. While ppl are chasing after tech stocks or penny goreng stocks, I prefer to invest in glove counters. Why? Many reasons, too lazy to elaborate plus may not be appreciated by most. So will just say " hold instead of cut loss, add if you still have capital".
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good luck smile.gif

Looks like the shorties never learned their mistake. It happen again at this price range. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Feb 24 2021, 10:22 AM)
You helped me reconsider my trading buy on Comfort. I didnt lose money bcoz of that.  thumbsup.gif  If I were to buy, today would be cheaper.
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glad for any help to you. thumbsup.gif

QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Feb 24 2021, 10:40 AM)
hi, do you mind sharing your view on glove stock as i feel like entering a bit as I still believe it is oversold..
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which you want to enter?

Don't want to go into too detail in the public.

The price currently is in capitulation stage. And this is the second final stage in a cycle.

What we want to prevent in stock market is to be overly optimistic and overly pessimistic. Current market stage is overly pessimistic. And this is the stage where value investing can be done.
skty
post Feb 24 2021, 07:57 PM

There is only one thing I know. That is I know nothing.
*******
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From: Klang/Shah Alam


QUOTE(jianwei90 @ Feb 24 2021, 11:42 AM)
i would prefer to enter top glove.. at least the boss is there to support the price if the price drops too drastically..
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you are averaging down or first time wanna masuk?


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 24 2021, 06:50 PM)
not just volatile... the politics-mco thingy is simply unattractive to all investors, foreign or domestic.

.. mco forever but cases not coming down... today 3500 cases.
.. no parliament, no need to discuss anything.
.. 5G launch also via SPV = corruption?
.. fitch, moody's about to downgrade country rating.
.. bloomberg also feel sorry for gloves - good sustainable profits but nobody want, let foreign hedge funds rape them.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-billion-ro...-031253000.html

in short, bursa, we retailers will be f'ed for a long time... until the greedy politicians get fat and full, leave the arena.

dark days may get darker before they get bright.
*
glove today very nice discount! rclxm9.gif

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