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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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squarepilot
post Apr 15 2021, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(liwei92 @ Apr 15 2021, 02:08 PM)
any recommendation? Thanks!
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I dare not to recommend on which company to invest in.
But I'm buying in mapletree industrial trust listed on SGX. The yield is 3.XX at the moment which many will find it unattractive at current price.
I think stocks listed on klse are fully valued on this current stage. It's up to you to speculate to buy high and sell higher.
Look out for a correction in future to buy in
squarepilot
post Apr 15 2021, 02:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 15 2021, 02:45 PM)
which one cheaper... depends what u use to "measure".

i think spmx is cheapest.

mind u, the rss shorts need to be considered - they are still gunning at harta but have left TG alone.
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Understand where you coming from.

I'm interpret it as in future valuation when ASP stabilise on a later stage

Gunning at harta meaning will cause a squize when harta report a surprise higher than expected quarter result

Call warrant from IB and banks should be issued again to invite another wave of uptrend. 😂
squarepilot
post Apr 15 2021, 03:04 PM

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Actually, did IB short counter when they issue CW?

A short answer no. Counter where it's CW nearing expiry date, bank will sell its holding in order to reduce exposure risk

The correct sequence should be this way
1. IB buys tonnes of mother share
2. In order to mitigate or spreading the risk, CW is issued, of cause with a much higher premium and hoping water fish coming in to be trapped
3. While CW is up more than what they expected or anticipated, they have to buy more mother shares to leverage
4. If the CW nearing to expiring, 2 options for them, to issue new CW with a even higher premium or to sell mother share, causing a big avalauch, depending on the so called anal list report
5. You know the drill...
squarepilot
post Apr 21 2021, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 21 2021, 08:58 PM)
yep, just checked that.

small amounts but still able to depress them a fair bit towards closing.

i doubt shortie has much more borrowed to short... so, it will probably be like this kind of guerilla warfare until maxed out.

as of today, there is no profit except harta and that is shrinking fast - harta is fighting back! biggrin.gif

(21/4 harta did SBB 320,000 vs shortie 952,300)
(20/4 harta did SBB 750,000 vs shortie 648,300)
(19/4 harta did SBB 320,000 vs shortie 950,900)

this seems to indicate harta will report a fabulous QR in a week's time or so.

how about a nice dividend + free warrants like comfort?! laugh.gif
net rss shorts:

TG 3.15%
Spmx 1.84%
Harta 1.48%
Kossan 1.60%

the pressure is mounting in the cooker!
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I don't understand. Warrant is a fund raising program. Why need find raising since already have plenty of cash?
squarepilot
post Apr 21 2021, 10:45 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Apr 21 2021, 03:52 PM)
I listened to my unker sifu, stonks only go up unless the kampeni go bankrupt.
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Technically stocks like insas and osk does not falls into the 2 cat you mentioned 😁
squarepilot
post Apr 26 2021, 06:21 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 26 2021, 01:25 PM)
If you cut loses with big 4 and bought 2nd liners glove makers, you probably earned enough to recover everything and more.

Growth story for big 4 is over. The time is just right for 2nd liners.
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The longer the covid stays, the more beneficial to the 2nd liners

Being said so, only the big 4 can sustain price war in future
squarepilot
post Apr 26 2021, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(CSW1990 @ Apr 26 2021, 05:51 PM)
I cut loss TG at 5.5 last time after average down from 8.9 to 7.4. Also CL supermax, kossan and LKL , bought at almost peak and have few round of average down.
but I didn’t regret CL as used that money entered crypto and US stock, China unit trust in end feb crash, now my portfolio is green and holding mostly recovery and tech stock at discount price 
Who knows who low the glove will go at that time? If I hold till today I still see at red negative number ... don’t have so much cash to keep on average down on a sector that is in downtrend at that time...
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Cut loss at the early stage Eg. 10 percent of your buying price is much better to cut it at 50 percent loss

I learnt my lesson via my hard earn money

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Apr 26 2021, 06:22 PM
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 11:29 AM

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The only speculation on gloves is how long and how high can the ASP sustain

If can sustain only for few month.. Well...

If can sustain for few years... Oh la la...
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Apr 28 2021, 12:52 PM)
I said many times already. Don't use fundamental for trading and expect result. Say until wanna vomit already.  puke.gif  laugh.gif

if investing, a lot of investors are happy now seeing the price dropping.  brows.gif
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Betting a stock against its sentiment is also a risky move for investor
Losing a customer is a risk to the business fundemental
Sales to AMS is around 70 percent of Gtronic revenue
No. I do not hentam the stocks that I own. I'm pointing the statement
I do own gtronic at the moment but still sitting at a profit
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 28 2021, 11:35 AM)
pretty much says it all, doesn't it?
p/s ... you left out ....

if it starts declining .....

if it starts declining only for a few months....

if it starts declining for a couple of years.....
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Yes. Those selling at lazada is the shop or e commerce seller
They are selling more than a 100 percent margin on top of the 100 percent margin from the factory
Glove makers do not sell at this ridiculous price to Dealer
At most is rm10 or 15 per box?

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Apr 28 2021, 02:49 PM
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Apr 28 2021, 02:42 PM)
How much ur entry price? Seems like is long time ago? Cos now is like nearly 1 yr low?
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That was like 4 to 5 years back before bonus issue
It did drop below my buying price during covid. But as skty pointed out. It did not worry me
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 02:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 28 2021, 02:56 PM)
That's really the wrong mindset.

What the stock price represents the current value of your investing of Gtronic.
It's what your stock is worth right now.

Whether you are in the profit or loss, it doesn't matter. It's only worth what you can sell at the market.

If it falls much more, you are losing the money.
As for Gtronic, the chart is very telling....
It is bias to the downside....

won't it better if you take the money now?

Did you see the chart?

it's not a stock you want any money in......
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I open my apps at 2.15pm. Already 2.30.... Too late la... What do you think? Nak potong ke?

Aiyo. 2.20 already

And no. I didn't look at today chart

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Apr 28 2021, 03:02 PM
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 03:20 PM

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As for gtronic
I noticed the drop few days back
I done research on AMS. no news on the sudden drop as well. My thinking was to that.... No changes in fundemental... Why cut loss based on TA since my aim is to invest in this company. But the news broke out today And someone did mentioned above that AMS is losing apple as customer...

Worry not.. When apple changes supplier for its part, it usually takes years to complete.

But yeah. For those who wanted to buy gtronic as investment. You might wanna think think twice before doing do. Buying at current price will probably make your portfolio negative


squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 28 2021, 03:16 PM)
user posted image

Recent trading days (including today's), we have seen 3 long dark candles...

The first one...
which was after Feb report...
pay attention to the volume...

that's a selldown, yes?

Take that QR report into consideration...
Okay, when compared to a Y-Y basis, there's about 16% improvement...
but yet ppl are willing to dump...

2 things...

1. is there something else besides the QR?
2. on a whole, there's really nothing to be exited with GT, esp when one takes into consideration other tech stocks whose profits are really booming....

the  second red arrow....

another long black candle...

another selldown ....
GT was suppose to report QR on May, yes? (surprised that it reported earlier) ....
this very candle .... it places a massive ? on GT....

ppl are willing to dump .....

today's dark candle...
another QR which is lebih kurang the same with what was seen in Feb...

surely for a fund... they be asking... why bet on GT? no other better tech stocks meh?
see the issues?

Now the next chart.... is when we expand it ....

user posted image

look at that chart...

now, when the stock is falling bad...
and you own it...
you gotta ask .... how bad can it get?

look at it again...  ask yourself ... if shit happens (and in the stock market, you never ever discount that) .... can you see how low it can go? and most important of all, are you willing to risk your money and let the stock fall so low?

( see, this is where your position comes in... yes, your cost is low... but if GT falls to March 2020 lows ... will GT ever recover back? and ya, of course, if it can, how long? )
that's what I will be considering.....  icon_rolleyes.gif
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Need to digest this. Let me think about it😀
squarepilot
post Apr 28 2021, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 28 2021, 03:32 PM)
also... don't forget to consider/digest the .... err .... selling curse.

laugh.gif
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Wtf? Like this sell half keep half la. Stuck at middle is better then going super north after selling or super south after maintaining. Hahaha
squarepilot
post May 4 2021, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 4 2021, 02:12 PM)
It's kinda under, isn't it?

Even I, was expecting 3 billion profits for the year...  (you can refer my brief expectation on posting #52796
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Very under 🥲
For this reason. I'm reducing my holdings to half
squarepilot
post May 4 2021, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ May 4 2021, 04:32 PM)
I think the fact that glove stocks would be making less profits in the future are reflected in the peak price drop from end of last year.
Then the Feb to Apr period this year was a further drop being pessimistic on the ASPs and oversupply.

Currently, I think the consensus is that the billion ringgit quarters does not look sustainable and the price was already adjusted for it.
My horizon is probably end of the year if things go well. If things goes south, who knows my CL point might trigger by end of this week and I go back to my plain potato stocks.
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By looking at the EARNINGS, EPS you are able to guestimate the dividend payable and the dividend yield. Does this figure satisfy us?

For me, I have overestimated harta capability. Take a bow and Take profit.

I didn't sell all, just sold the portion I top up during the pandemic.
squarepilot
post May 5 2021, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(izzudrecoba @ May 5 2021, 05:35 PM)
Wow. PBT 1,301%  shocking.gif
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What is that to wow

It is below expectations
squarepilot
post May 6 2021, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 5 2021, 08:01 PM)
This statement...

"The glove prices have since dropped by between 15% and 25%. Currently, the spot market prices are lower than the contracted prices," said the rubber glove maker in its quarterly results' announcement.

Link:

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/566687

Wow... Which more the less confirmed JPM statement.

Well... I think they deserve credit for pointing this issue out...
And more credit who called for the gal from Macquarie who called for the falling ASP many months ago.
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Then why the macquarie gal say TG can hit rm60 at the first place?

Giving a right advice at a wrong time is a wrong and misleading advice
squarepilot
post May 6 2021, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ May 6 2021, 10:26 AM)
That's a simple way to solve such issues...
Stop playing stocks that is widely covered by analysts...  devil.gif
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No coverage, no volume 😂

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