QUOTE(skty @ Feb 28 2021, 05:09 PM)
Hello. I quote a few of my earlier post to answer your question.
Was reading some of the line below
QUOTE(skty @ Feb 25 2021, 07:54 PM)
this is what CA is about. This is what the CA model tell me. I cannot answer why the model tell me the turning point is shown there because it's using AI to process tons of data thrown into it.
everything has it's own cycle. Commodity cycle will peak on 2024.
the cycle sometime will run -+ 1 year or few months. That's normal because it's influenced by people.
but history always repeat itself so the cycle will always be there.
2020 was the war cycle. -+ 1 year or few months you can see US-China trade war, current Myanmar army take over, all these things.
So CA can increase the success probability in investing if we know what to avoid.
I keep saying about 2H2021. This also from CA. This is big one lo... 3 big cycles divergence.
but sometime cycle inversion will happen. But it's very rare. Cycle inversion mean at a period of time that we expect a turning point, but it doesn't happen, instead of turn direction, it continue to accelerate the current direction. Now, if this happen, we can be very sure that the next turning point after this cycle inversion, will not be cycle inversion anymore.
by saying this, if US market doesn't go through a correction from Feb to May, it mean a cycle inversion has happened and it will bring what is going to happen in 2H2021 even earlier.
my 2 cents.
As you said, cycle inversion do happens and the probability is 50:50 on that particular time. It also means that it is not smart to pull out 100% of your fund invested in the general market
QUOTE(skty @ Feb 27 2021, 04:51 PM)
My objective is to warn people so they can be alert and don’t lose money. Recently I exited from my position in TBF. What does that mean? I entered when none of those “financial experts” are predicting about yield rising and I exited when all of the “financial experts” are saying vaccine is available and economy is going to recover soon, thus the yield will continue to raise. Those “financial experts” are simply following the trend. With CA you are always able to be one or two steps ahead of the trend.
I did give general direction which financial assets, sector, market that we should focus on moving forward. 2024 commodities, 2028 fall of US dollar as world reserve currency, 2035 the raise of China as world main economy. Those alone are enough to bring tremendous wealth to one if he/she start positioning for entry now.
My 2 cent.
The cycle analysis i would suggest it's more of a mere guideline, no one can aim chun chun. perhaps re-balancing of portfolio on every quarter (or maybe monthly) do help to mitigate risk of losing 100% in share market