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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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squarepilot
post Feb 4 2021, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(Brico @ Feb 4 2021, 11:15 AM)
UWC is a metal sheet fabricator,No how is it related to semicon industry? What i also found out,employee were paid  up to 13months Bonus last year.
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Most of semicon company need metal sheet fabricator, especially backend packaging process which much of MNC factory in penang requires
squarepilot
post Feb 4 2021, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Feb 4 2021, 05:15 PM)
And the market is closed.

Eita closed at +7.89%. JfTech closed at -1.17% after opening at +3% plus.

Lady Luck took pity on me. I managed to sell Eita at about -0.50% loss. Sold Jftech in 2 batches for a profit of about 7% to 8% instead of +10% in the morning. That 3% made a lot of difference in my overall daily profit.

Sold Samchem for a small profit.

Overall, it was a good trading week with good profit thanks to Jftech.

Only left with 4 stocks in my portfolio.

Sekian, lapuran syiok sendiri saya.
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nama vanguard but manyak kuat trading sweat.gif
squarepilot
post Feb 13 2021, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 13 2021, 10:59 AM)
liquidity is a useful central bank tool but excessive liquidity create assets inflation/bubble (e.g poorperly a few years ago and bursa lately) which could be a bigger problem.

every economic recession is different and caused by different bubble. some economists said 2008 financial crisis was the aftermath of 1999 dotcom bubble. what is next? ev? Penny stocks?
As this year gdp growth is likely neutral at best, economy is unlikely to return to 2019 level until 2023. bursa is largely detached from the economic reality.

long term economic equilibrium always prevail. how long could bursa defy gravity?
With U.S. equity indexes rising to fresh records again this week, one of Warren Buffett’s most-famous catchphrases comes to mind: Investors should “be fearful when others are greedy.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...inging-an-alarm
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what was your thought in 2010 when 2008 financial crisis happened?

the economy jumped higher and the crisis did minimal impact to Asian country for a minimal time. maybank and genting was in trouble but still, thought got it back after 2010

if the US keep on implement stimulus and QE. the stock market will not go burst. they somehow need to tighten it. else, it would just create a mass inflation

you have two scenario to choose from, or rather 3:
1. keep you money in cold hard cash. if the crash did not happen in 5 years, and government keep introduce QE. your money will depreciate 30 - 40%. if crash within 2-3 years, you are in luck for bargain hunting

2. you stay invested. if market goes wrong, there you go. but looking at your pose definitely you are not looking this as an option

3. you put your money 50:50 in bank as well as investment in the current time of uncertainty

It just like waiting the property market to crash in 2009. did it? or did the overall property price increased 100% during 2009-2014? even you are buying property during the crash right now, you will still be paying 2009 price
squarepilot
post Feb 13 2021, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 13 2021, 01:14 PM)
Poorperly price rise/inflation 2009-2014 was fueled by cheap and easy credit. As most bought with bank loan, price rise slower and lower than loan interest incurred is financial losses. Believe many find their poorperly investment under water especially those opted for loan moratorium.

Like poorperly in 2009, bursa is not the only investment opportunity available.

During poorperly bull run 2009-2014, those sold early profited but many are left with burden. Believe many poorperly investors are vested in bursa using 'free cashflow' from loan moratorium.
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They are going to lossen I sinar withdrawal to support the market. In which will bring market stability for another 6 months.

What trick are they going to do next? I don't know. Will there be another trick? I don't know.

For such, I rather stay investment for around 70 percent of my asset into equity or equity linked investment
squarepilot
post Feb 15 2021, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 15 2021, 10:20 PM)
If bursabets movement would have push top glove up abit say around rm8 level then a nov expiring puts might be worth a shot. But alas they puncture before even started.
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looking at traders demographics in malaysia, bursa bet not going to work in bursa

majority is Chinese, which is very kiasi by nature

indians and malays do not trade much
squarepilot
post Feb 18 2021, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(Rinth @ Feb 18 2021, 02:02 PM)
Thats why i dun dare to use margin/contra account anymore.....

during 2017, when i'm still greenhorn, relative ask me to open an account because he was the remisier there.....and i follow him play warrant.... burned 8k....and i close the accounts.

last Nov 2020 decide to learn again and dun touch contra/margin...... currently at paper loss SPX 4.5k......but SPX was my 1st few stock that bought since the beginning.... Thats why penthouse... ranting.gif  ranting.gif
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You can buy warrant but only warrant issued by company itself which still in the money and with negative premium

Other than that. Good luck

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Feb 18 2021, 02:23 PM
squarepilot
post Feb 27 2021, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Feb 27 2021, 03:05 PM)
Zero sales fee, and your returns are decent too, sounds good already. Thanks for sharing your fund here.

Please don't whack my brain for asking, but how does this tax deductible of RM3000 contributes <20% in tax savings yea?
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1. Public mutual have sales charges for their PRS fund. But their annual charges is just slightly less than that those who do not charge sales charges

2. It depends on your income tax bracket
If your annual salary is 60k or below, your savings should not be more than 11 percent

If your salary is dew hundred K, you may save more than 20 percent

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Feb 27 2021, 04:33 PM
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Feb 28 2021, 01:06 PM)
Hello.

News of passing 1.9 trillion USD relief bill being released and everyone is very optimistic that US market will surge.

As usual, I am not the one who follow what the "being told" trend and I am here to warn that the model telling me that there will be a panic in DJI in March, highest possibility in early March, which is next week.

Pls take this as alert and do your own due diligent.

Good luck.
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what does this mean?

panic as in panic buy on monday? this will surely cause inflation (or devaluation of USD).

after that only we will see the bond yield goes up, maybe in 2nd or 3rd week or march

there is just too much money circulating around the rich
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 05:25 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Feb 28 2021, 05:09 PM)
Hello. I quote a few of my earlier post to answer your question.

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Was reading some of the line below

QUOTE(skty @ Feb 25 2021, 07:54 PM)
this is what CA is about. This is what the CA model tell me. I cannot answer why the model tell me the turning point is shown there because it's using AI to process tons of data thrown into it.

everything has it's own cycle. Commodity cycle will peak on 2024.

the cycle sometime will run -+ 1 year or few months. That's normal because it's influenced by people.

but history always repeat itself so the cycle will always be there.

2020 was the war cycle. -+ 1 year or few months you can see US-China trade war, current Myanmar army take over, all these things.

So CA can increase the success probability in investing if we know what to avoid.

I keep saying about 2H2021. This also from CA. This is big one lo... 3 big cycles divergence.  sweat.gif

but sometime cycle inversion will happen. But it's very rare. Cycle inversion mean at a period of time that we expect a turning point, but it doesn't happen, instead of turn direction, it continue to accelerate the current direction. Now, if this happen, we can be very sure that the next turning point after this cycle inversion, will not be cycle inversion anymore.

by saying this, if US market doesn't go through a correction from Feb to May, it mean a cycle inversion has happened and it will bring what is going to happen in 2H2021 even earlier.

my 2 cents.
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As you said, cycle inversion do happens and the probability is 50:50 on that particular time. It also means that it is not smart to pull out 100% of your fund invested in the general market

QUOTE(skty @ Feb 27 2021, 04:51 PM)


My objective is to warn people so they can be alert and don’t lose money. Recently I exited from my position in TBF. What does that mean? I entered when none of those “financial experts” are predicting about yield rising and I exited when all of the “financial experts” are saying vaccine is available and economy is going to recover soon, thus the yield will continue to raise. Those “financial experts” are simply following the trend. With CA you are always able to be one or two steps ahead of the trend.

I did give general direction which financial assets, sector, market that we should focus on moving forward. 2024 commodities, 2028 fall of US dollar as world reserve currency, 2035 the raise of China as world main economy. Those alone are enough to bring tremendous wealth to one if he/she start positioning for entry now.

My 2 cent.
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The cycle analysis i would suggest it's more of a mere guideline, no one can aim chun chun. perhaps re-balancing of portfolio on every quarter (or maybe monthly) do help to mitigate risk of losing 100% in share market
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 28 2021, 05:31 PM)
Fed and ECB review and revise their data, target and tools regularly. Only demigod could foresee accurately more than a few quarter away.
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Yes. and it is still amazing how they control and avoid hyper inflation when they inject so many trillions in the market since 2009

inflation rate was like.... okay there was some inflation but not to the extend of everything goes up 100% in 2-3 years time
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 28 2021, 05:51 PM)
Fed and ECB actually wanted to have higher inflation rate but didn't achieve. The beast is huge and has its mind, fed may guide or try to manipulate but not easy to control the outcome.

Japan show; ultra low inflation rate could be detrimental in the long term.
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To me it's just weird

QE and QE and still QE but where are all the money goes besides pumping into NASDAQ counters? LOL

QUOTE(New Klang @ Feb 28 2021, 05:54 PM)
Tomorrow market will react to the USD 1.9T approval.

How long can this red bull energy drink can last?
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Was it anticipated? yes

but surprisingly it was fast enough

With these jokers printing this huge amount of money, will there be a second time and a third time? A big Yes to me

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Feb 28 2021, 06:06 PM
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(JohnKekHow @ Feb 28 2021, 06:05 PM)
To China...subsidizing the Belt and Road initiative for the past 4-5 years  laugh.gif
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Belt and Road initiative will make China a sore loser

With their mass shopping spree in Africa and keep giving them loans, do you think the Africans nations will pay them back? laugh.gif

This is my opinion only, can feel free to correct as we are all here to share and give information to benefit everyone

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Feb 28 2021, 06:09 PM
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 28 2021, 06:10 PM)
2008 & 2009 there was sign of deflationary pressure in the market, hence the loose monetary policy basically just normalized the deflationary pressure.

Whereas for 2021, there might be real inflationary pressure this round. Those fast and rapid kind. 2008 use around 7-10 years for QE to gain steam before fed see a need to reign in loose monetary policy.

This round, there is a possibility that fed might lose control of the yield curve due to the need to keep employment high while taming inflationary pressures coming from assets & commodity rises as market and businesses is pricing ahead for an optimistic covid recovery outlook.

Monday global market will probably open nicely due to the stimulus optimism, it was easy to pass due to democrat senate majority. But i would keep an eye on market demand for treasuries as well as recovery data ie, retail sales data, non farm payroll, new home sales data etc
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which is why i think that skty hold true but the peak of super commodity may happen sooner then expected, which is also can cause a investor/trader to think wrong because it happens way too sooner or too further
squarepilot
post Feb 28 2021, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Feb 28 2021, 07:56 PM)
Yes. There is probability for cycle inversion but not 50:50. Therefore, instead I hold cash which devalue overtime, I go in to short the DJI.  brows.gif

If 100%, I am god already, not human. hahaha

you are correct. thumbsup.gif
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careful. Jesse Livermore went broke when he shorted the market

me too. i lost around 10k in buying put warrant in KLSE, but gain on other counter. was predicting KLSE will be as low as 1400 point by December but i was wrong
squarepilot
post Mar 1 2021, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(howyoulikethat @ Mar 1 2021, 12:15 PM)
If TG falls, I understand, due to reports stating earnings dilution, unncessary fund raising, spend 1.4bil to buy 200m shares,  etc.

But why did other gloves shares fall?
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When the leader fall, others follow
squarepilot
post Mar 4 2021, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(Taikor.Taikun @ Mar 4 2021, 11:27 AM)
Semicon stocks still can play? Keep dropping no sign of hitting bottom. Ther is still chip shortage. Has it become gloves wher future priced in or something?
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Semi com industry is more complex than gloves

ASP doesn't really come into picture

It's more of forecast of consumer goods sales and demand
squarepilot
post Mar 6 2021, 05:35 PM

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Most likely,

All is set to recover on Monday due to the bullish sentiment because most will not be selling their portion. on how high each stocks can go? err... no one can answer
squarepilot
post Mar 8 2021, 04:08 PM

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QUOTE(Kar Weng @ Mar 8 2021, 03:58 PM)
What would be the related stocks other than QL that sells eggs? Sorry not familiar with this sector, no harm hearing and learning more!
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LHI, Layhong, MFM ... got somemore but my memory doesn't treat me well lately
squarepilot
post Mar 8 2021, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Mar 8 2021, 03:51 PM)
Yeah very competitive and reliant on corn / feed price. High margin seafood exporter better.
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HAHA. you mean QL?
squarepilot
post Mar 9 2021, 09:00 AM

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With digi offering 4.XX percent. There are definitely many other good shares to choose from. As cost of operation keep increasing and the implementation of 5G, the cost will eventually need to pass down to customer. But the price war is just... Huge

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