Not just red, got diarrhea tonight

Just received it today. I get a note book from FSM event previous week and exchange it for this ang pow from someone who want a note book instead. Yay! Now I got 3 of them.

Someone already selling this rm5 for a pair in angpow collectors FB group. BTW, is that someone in this forum as well?

For US stock need to wait till end of the month to know. Right now S&P 500 monthly chart is below it's 20 EMA. If this rally can't break 20 EMA and bounce back down, we could be in for a big crash.

10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 are common numbers for looking at moving averages, both simple and exponential. They were used mainly by institutional investors and market technicians to make investment decisions. It is advisable for individual investors to use the same numbers as well, else you'll not align with the big boys. 10 days usually used for monthly chart rather than daily chart. If you fancy 18 and 49, can use them in place of 20 and 50 but keep it to yourself lah

I need to constantly remind myself not to fall to this trap. I have my own buy/sell signal but hand itchy when most in this forum going in with recent 0.5% SC. Every time I don't follow my signal but FSM SC signal, I make less profit or worst going into the red from get go. Thanks for the reminder.

I thought that normally referring to Public Mutual, they are jaguh kampong but for the past 2 years did badly on local funds as well.

I don't think it is right to expect advisor/consultant to give buy/sell timing advise and know when market going to crash or already bottom. Even for professional trader who use both fundamental and technical analysis can get it wrong. That is where stop lost become handy but one is expected to stay invested with UT, not trading.

I think you'll need to clarify on what you meant by the above because it depends on what you did in the falling or rising market that will determine if you make money. There are phrases such as never cash a falling knife and buy high sell higher.

Ha! VCA/DCA in a falling market will also depends on your frequency of topping up. If you ran out of ammo earlier on, you'll missed buying at even lower price. Also you would assume the fund you bought will bounce back. What if it takes longer to go back up or never back up like japan or china stock market. Even some local fund like FSM recommended AMB Ethical that have very good track record for past 5 years but went down hill since July'14 high. If you keep DCA these fund, definitely will ran out of ammo soon. IMHO better to use the ammo on funds that are going up than going down.

I do not know where you work or whether you have your own business but during recession many companies close shop or downsized. Hopefully your job is very secure (touch wood xx) and able to continue with fresh injection. In The Art of Investing and Portfolio Management book they suggested keeping 2 years of cash fund as that is typically how long a downturn will last.

Going back to your original statement of making money during falling market, I think it was a misleading statement to newbies, without the understanding of what you meant and how you achieve it. That was why I asked for clarification.

What I also learned from years of stock trading is to make your money grow, not shrink. As an example, when stock price falling, you buy more into existing position in order to average down the cost. If the price keep falling, your invested value is shrinking. The more you add, the more it shrink. You make money grow by putting money in rising stock price as the more you add into a position, the bigger is your invested value as long as stock price continue to rise. In summary, invest in rising market, not falling market. Hence buy high, sell higher.

One of the system one can use with the concept of buy high sell higher is using 50 SMA or even 100 SMA to make investment decision. I'm not saying I'm using this system but it is a possible system. Using your normal DCA ammo, when NAV drop below 50 SMA, you stop your DCA and reserve the ammo. The moment NAV went above 50 SMA, you lump sum invest your accumulated ammo and resume DCA again. Will you able to catch the bottom with this method? No, but that is not the objective because with regular DCA you unable to catch the bottom as well because nobody know when is bottom until you see uptrend again as represented by NAV cross above 50 SMA. The chart is available FOC from FSM. There are many more systems that can enhance return using variation of DCA/VCA/CDI methods.

It seems alien to you isn't it? If you never expose to basic technical analysis before. The chart is available on FSM website for a reason. Play around with it, do some backtesting, you'll feel more comfortable with it and understand what I was referring to.

too much ping pong with penjaga van I totally missed this. In stock trading, the risk is quantify by how many % of your stock account you want to put at risk per trade. Usually it range from 0.8% to 1.5%. The smaller the account size, the bigger percentage due to small account disadvantage. Example if your risk is $500 per trade and your stop lost is 25%, your trade size would be $2000. Based on analysis, usual target profit is 1.5x to 2x of risk (reward risk ratio) for a viable trade.

This post has been edited by kimyee73: Jan 27 2016, 03:49 PM

You got it right but that is not just it because different traders has different account size, different risk level and different system of entry and exit. This is one of typical trading system. If your risk is $2500, with 1% risk per trade, your account size need to be $250K.

My favorite CIS advised me to accumulate Asia funds. I'm currently at 11.9% dev markets, 12.1% AsiaxJap, 16.5% Malaysia, the rest in bonds and mm.

Read my lips carefully you buy the moment NAV cross up SMA. Look at all the funds that went down. Tell me which fund do not have that crossing? If there is such fund, then it is not worth your money to invest as it is a permanent bear fund, always going down, never go up at all.

Wah lau, my portfolio dropped like a rock My PM EPF portfolio did much better, IRR drop from 7.13% to 6.71% only.

As of 29/1/16

			Nov	Dec	Jan
Portfolio - Main		IRR	6.73%	7.23%	-0.56%
Top 3 Funds	% of Port
EI Small Caps	3.5%	IRR	25.2%	25.28%	21.35%
RHB Islamic Bond	8.9%	IRR	4.72%	6.11%	7.13%
CIMB Global Titan	1.7%	IRR	15.39%	14.09%	6.34%
Bottom 3 Funds (equity)
CIMB AP Dyn Income	2.9%	IRR	-5.27%	-2.82%	-13.4%
AMB Ethical	5%	IRR	-18.26%	-7.77%	-10.74%
Libra Consumer & Leisure	3%	ROI	1.79%	0.26%	-9.33%

I think my IRR got amplified a lot due to doubling of fund size in the last 6 months while my PM fund is already 15 years old.

This post has been edited by kimyee73: Feb 3 2016, 01:32 PM

I topped up AmPrecious Metal and sold off my Titanic last Tuesday. This week will top up Ponzi 1.0.