My uncanny observation:

1) Bolehland stock goes up.

2) Global Titan goes down.

3) Ponzi 2.0 is hovering around, I have a feeling it may have found its support level.

Observation 1) & 2) is the classic example of what we meant by low correlation, and why asset allocation is important.

Xuzen

Some mental jotting:

I) I am exposed to three equity based funds: Titan, Ponzi 2.0 & ESISC.

II) If you look at the chart, Titan & Ponzi 2.0 have been on the uptrend for the past three years. It was only the past two months the funds have slid downwards. If you have done DCA on them, your lost should be still within a single digit percentage. If you do lump sum.... god help you.

III) ESISC is inverse to Titan & Ponzi 2.0; whenever they go down, ESISC goes the other way. If you, like me are invested in the three funds, then your loss in Titan & Ponzi 2.0 will be somewhat mitigated by the reversal of ESISC.

IV) If you have invested also in fixed income; your loss would have been even more mitigated by the fixed income fund's slow climb upwards.

V) The lessons is still true, buy funds that are poorly correlated with each other. Include a stable fixed income fund like Libra Asnita bond to make your portfolio more resilient to the volatility swings.

VI) The above are the golden rule of investing in UT.

VII) In times like this; stay strong & let diversity rules.

VIII) If you have already done point IV) to V); then stay away from looking at your portfolio for a few weeks. Let the bad weather pass. Read a book, go do something else.... just don't look at your portfolio for the time being.

Xuzen

p/s Note to self, no more topping up or DCA for the time being.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 13 2016, 10:05 AM

Long time you no tok-kok™ here hor...

But why so muram during this CNY?

Your Viet-Moi(s) no give you hunneh?

Xuzen

There are some issues you must take note before you think of ASX FP as a replacement to Libra Asnita Bond:

I) The NAV of ASX is fixed and it is not reflective of the actual value of the fund. I have spoken at length about my opinion on ASX; I do not wish to repeat them.

II) ASX is from a different company. It is like asking Can I use Pub-Mut Bond as my fixed income portion? Sure you can, but you forget about the logistic hassle. Say for example when you need to move money into FSM's ESISC; you need to liquidate the fund from Pub-Mut which will take T+10, then write a cheque or IBG which will take another T+3 days to get into ESISC. In total your money will be in transit and doing nothing for 14 days. Is it efficient?

III) Don't forget, when you move from Pub-Mut or ASX or whatever; each time you move from a different platform you need to pay sales charge.

IV) This is what I call smart in theory / book but not so street-smart.

Xuzen

Before I answer you this; I want more data.

Tell which ASX FP fund specifically you want to use as the Fixed income portion? I ask because I know there are a few right? So which one you wanna use?

Next give me their historical dividend yield for the past ten years.

Oh! And one more thing, let's assume you sell your ASX FP and masuk say ESISC; then when the it is time to take profit from ESISC you want to buy back ASX FP. But you run a risk of not being able to buy because all units sold out already. Is that going to be a real or imaginary problem?

Xuzen

Looks like the 6.X% return is quite consistent. So let's take 6% as the expected outcome. Since its unit price is fixed and an expected return of 6%; yeah you can take this as the risk free rate portion when constructing your portfolio. The unit price does not move at all, hence you can safely say that is has zero correlation with all the other asset class.

But, as a caveat, this message is targeted for you alone as You are quite adamant to queue up for three days at the bank to buy the ASX FP products. Not so many people are so lucky to be so FREE!

Xuzen

I don't know whether the market will be bear or bull. I don't want to speculate.

I am certain that the volatility will continue.

Since I am not sure, it is better I do nothing and watch from the sideline first. Please note that this advise is specific to me as I am very near my intended target asset allocation. For those who have just started DCA or at the accumulation stage; continue DCA to reach your targeted asset allocation before thinking like I do.

Xuzen

without giving details and not asking specific questions, it will become more like kopitiam talk. You want quality advise or kopitiam answer?

Xuzen

OK, will start with kopitiam talk and we work our way up....

Lu ala duit or not? Got duit continue to pump in lor...now market down mah! You wanna buy when mkt high or mkt down?

Let me explain some basic term:

1) Volatility in financial academic context means deviation from the mean / average /expected outcome.

2) So when I say volatility will continue, it means that the observed outcome will deviate from the expected outcome. This does not mean to be always downside risk, it could also means upside potential.

3) If I were to say confirmed bearish outlook; then it is more certain the observed outcome will be towards the downside risk.

Get the term correct first.

4) In this case of increased volatility; this means that we do not know which way it will go, or it may go up and down in a very unpredictable manner. The best solution in this type of scenario is to do DCA frequently and in small quantity if you are in the accumulation stage. Let the DCA smoothen out the volatility curve over time.

5) If you are already at the target allocation; just sit back and do nothing. let your diversified portfolio do its job. Case in point; my Titan went down but my Fixed income and ESISC fund increase making the total loss less than if I were to exposed only to Titan.

6) If you are a speculator looking for trading position then volatility is your friend.... you can make good profit if you are lucky. Better still if you can take long and short position. Commodity / Forex trading thrive on these type of environment.

7) If it is a full bear or full bull; then the buy / sell decision will be easier to make.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 15 2016, 03:09 PM

1)Ponzi 2.0 is a broad geographical exposed fund that invest in dividend yielding equity in the Asia-Pac xJP region.

2) RHB Smart Series is single country in this case Malaysia only exposed fund.

3) They are no overlap among these two funds, My opinion is that it is good to have both to maintain diversification.

Xuzen

I am still keeping this fund in my portfolio. The preferred minimum exposure is 25%; maximum exposure is 33% of your total equity portion. Whether to buy or not buy will depend on how much you already have in your portfolio.

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 19 2016, 03:03 PM

Logic is based on result calculated by Algozen™ [Algorithm by Xuzen].

It is a excel program written by me that is based on Harry Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory.

The result is a Minimally Variance Portfolio.

Xuzen

p/s The underlined words you can google for more info.

MY funds dropped a lot in 2015 especially those big cap. When did you enter MY fund? Those who entered in 2014 will know what I am talking about. 2015 was US mkt due to the MYR weakness.

Xuzen

I'm awesome and I know it!

Xuzen

In the unlikely event Doomsday event happen such as Virus turning half the world population into mindless flesh eating zombies, or perhaps an rouge asteroid from the Kuiper belt slam unto Earth, or perhaps mutated Lizard named Godzilla were to rampage through the entire east pacific coastline destroying everything in its path....

Yar, sh1t happens and your moonies in the UT would be wipe out and you will have to live your life as a vagabond and survivor of this unfortunate holocaust.

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 22 2016, 01:48 PM

There are easily 100 over funds that invest in Malaysia; and I so lucky go and hire the ESISC fund manager to invest my money. So lucky me hor.....

Xuzen

If DCA / VCA: Anytime is good time to enter.

The best time to exit is when you need to spend the money.

Other than that, stay invested, keep your risk in check and don't sweat the small stuff!

Xuzen

My port is starting to head northwards... Ponzi 2.0 is leading the charge. Titanic is lagging slightly, Small-cap which has surged ahead earlier is now resting and steady at the distance waiting for the two to catch up.

Xuzen

Algozen™ is gung-ho on Malaysia again. I am increasing my exposure from 25% to 35%. I use ESISC as proxy to M'sia exposure. (KGF and ESI MyFocus is also good to go)

I am reducing Ponzi 2.0 from 33% to 25%. Ponzi 2.0 is still the best Asia-Pac xJp fund in the FSM universe.

The remaining will be in CIMB-Titan.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Feb 28 2016, 10:04 AM