Not running away lar my friend!

Both Titan and Ponzi 2.0 is like a hot girl friend and hot mistress. Just so happen Ponzi 2.0 "auntie visit" therefore temporary pay more attention to Titan for the time being lor.....

Running away sound like breaking up lah!

Xuzen

p/s 5% nia... no need so kan cheong.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 16 2016, 02:45 PM

Direct translation from a chinese proverb:

" a flower seller will surely says his flower smells the best"

Xuzen

Based on my memory, every six mths these type of whole market down event will happen.

In recent memory; it happened in Qtr4 or Yr2014, then in mid 2015 now, six mths later in early of Jan2016.

However, each time after this happens, market bounce back.

So, if we use history as a guide, then we should not be worried!

Xuzen

For those who are like Pink alone; start the day with self love is also recommended. Make luv, not war!

Xuzen

My equities portion of portfolio is now -6%. My portfolio One Std-Dev for the equities portion is rigged to be +/- 8%. So far it is still within +1 SD. So, no major or drastic action... just DCA along.

Xuzen

FSM is DIY lah dei! All you must do it yourself! Many of the veterans were from full service provider and we have paid our tuition fees liao, you come in only expect to be pandai-pandai without paying tuition fees ar?

Dun wanna pay the 5.5% service charge but expectation is to to full service.

Like going into McDonalds expecting the maitre'd to show you their vintage wine collection.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 21 2016, 07:34 PM

My portfolio is 15 mths old and it is the first time it has gone below (-1 SD).

As of 21/1/2016 NAV, my equity portion is -8.1% and my portfolio SD is (+/-) 8%.

Ponzi 2.0 which I hold around 1/3 portion is now down to 9.2% and its SD as listed in its FFS is 8.25%. This means that Ponzi 2.0 has moves substantially away from its historical mean.

I am topping up Ponzi 2.0 and KGF in the coming week in small amount; not sai-lang. The market is still very volatile.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 23 2016, 10:42 AM

I mean to say Ponzi 2.0, sorry for the typo. I think Ponzi 1.0 still suxs and hence not holding any of it.

My Ponzi 2.0 is now negative 9.2% ROI cumulatively.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 23 2016, 10:44 AM

Lower return compared to Ponzi 2.0 and with higher volatility! These are my main reasons to choose Ponzi 2.0 in lieu of Ponzi 1.0.

Xuzen

I bought TA Global Tech in Jun 2014 and sold everything in late Oct 2015, all in all made a 15% gain on that single counter fund. It was a trading buy, nothing more. I switced it to CIMB Global Titan because of Titan's lower volatility.

Xuzen

p/s It was not a planned exit from Global Tech, it just so happen Titan came along and offered me a lower volatility for a lebih kurang similar geographical equity exposure with the approximately same level of return.... sure I will go with it!



This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 23 2016, 04:00 PM

I also use DCA / VCA method and my portfolio also got hit. This is one of those episodes where nothing is safe bet for the time being. Know that volatility exist, embrace it, expect it!

Take note that a few months (perhaps two mths down the line) you will be happy that you did not sell everything and all went back to normal..... it happen in q42014, mid 2015 and now.

Xuzen

p/s It is almost predictable a six month cycle!

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 23 2016, 03:57 PM

It is soooo strange.

I was playing / tinkering with Algozen™ just now and it is telling me to increase / take more risk.

Xuzen

p/s I have no explanation for this yet..... wait and see.

No! I double checked their respective FFS: Ponzi 1.0 has higher volatility compared to Ponzi 2.0.

Xuzen

Boyz & gurlz, unkers & aunties, let me tell you a story:

Three boys in standard six class in Sek Menengah Satu Amdibi, namely; Karpal, Awang and Najib.

The class teacher Puan Rosmah wants to know how rich they are. Now the word rich is a concept, on its own it does not have a meaning. You may say perhaps Najib is richer than Karpal and Karpal is richer than Awang. But again, it has no stand alone meaning.

So, Puan Rosmah asked them to empty their pockets and check their coins.

Without counting them, Puan Rosmah sees that Najib's pocket is the heaviest amongst all of them that were filled with coins. Intuitively, Puan. Rosmah knew that Najib is the richest.

Again, this is not absolute way to know exactly who is the richest. So, Puan Rosmah counted all their coins.

Najib has MYR 2.60 worth in coins, Karpal has MYR 0.90 worth or coins whereas Awang has only MYR 0.70 worth of coins.

Now, Puan Rosmah can say with definite conviction that Najib is indeed the richest, followed by Karpal and then Awang.

Similarly in the description of risk, the word is just a concept and on its own have no meaning.

Volatility is like the weight of the coins, it is useful for comparison but it is not an absolute figure on its own.

Now, standard deviation is the acceptable measurement of volatility. It is a integer and is a discreet number.

Happy Sunday everyone!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 24 2016, 10:44 AM

Your portfolio looks like the European Union i.e., too many decision makers speaking in 6 to 7 language to each other... no wonder it is so messy!

K.I.S.S!

Xuzen

hmmmmmm.... much learning you have acquired, my young padawan!

May the force be with you.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 24 2016, 03:33 PM

Ponzi 2.0 is a good proxy for Asia Pac x-Jp. Wise Investors will no doubt have it in their portfolio.

The others..... screw them!

Xuzen

Lukenn,

Me liek your pwetty graphs. Soooooo pwetty!

Is it Kenanga's proprietary program for their Con-Sultan?

My Algozen™ is only numbers amd numbers and dun hav naiz-naiz graphics using Excel 2003 nia...

Xuzen

Premium bankers have a high maintanence quota and if they don't meet it, they are a goner. So, that is why they need to sell sell sell, from industry grapewine it may be as much as RM500k per month of fresh money into their UT quota. They are the same as your regular Toyota or Honda sales consultant. Its all about quota quota quota!

You go test them out. Go into a HSBC premier or any private wealth advisor and ask them to tell you which funds have low correlation with each other. i think you get more info here at LYN then from them.

Xuzen




This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 25 2016, 02:40 PM

FSM has about 300 UT in it; Wodenus claims 50% ROI less than FD rate. I think he is wrong; 2/3 or 67% of them has 1 year return less than FD rate of 4.5%. Check out FSM website and see for yourself.

But the point is, one should bet on the winning horse, why will you put your money into every single UT managers' hand? Choose the best! The fact that their past track record is for public display makes it a "crying over spill milk" if you go on and hire a lousy UT manager.

Wodenus go on and said something along the line how can the UT manager guarantee that 5 years down the line he will perform above peer? NO, he / she cannot but the fact that his track record is public info and is updated monthly. You, as an investor are empowered to use your discretion! The fact you can continue to employ him (by continuing holding the UT) or fire him (buy selling the UT) with a click of a mouse at minimal cost, is something many of us take for granted.

NB: If you own, say, a factory, try firing and hiring a floor manager. You will then know the tediousness of the process of hiring & firing!

There are arguments about whether investing in UT is similar to gambling or not? This is what Investopedia has to say about this subject matter:Investopedia's view

Some forumers asked whether can a financial adviser gives a 20% return p.a.?

The answer is yes, just look at the past return of the top funds in FSM; +20% is achievable. Question, is whether the client can stomach the swing in NAV or not?

Let's go further and ask, can a financial adviser gives 50% return p.a?

The answer is no; there is no regulated product in the industry that gives 50% return p.a. so far, penny-stock / warrant and futures excluded.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 25 2016, 08:49 PM