The Struggle for Azaz Corridor Could Spur a Turkish Intervention
QUOTE
For some time, Syrian rebels have been struggling to hold onto a narrow but crucial strip of territory between the northern border town of Azaz and the contested city of Aleppo. This corridor is the lifeline for antiregime forces in the north because it is their land bridge to Turkey. Yet it now faces imminent threats on several fronts: from the east by the Islamic State (IS), from the west by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), and from the south by the Syrian army and its allies.
In fact, the Azaz corridor has become the epicenter of the war, with hostilities intensifying throughout the area over the past two weeks. Everything seems to indicate that a Kurdish offensive supported by Russian aviation is underway to the west, coordinated with a developing campaign by the Syrian army and proxy militias on the outskirts of Aleppo. Meanwhile, Russia is apparently not taking action against the IS forces pushing into the area from the north. And the prospect of direct Turkish intervention looms over the fighting, especially if the corridor should fall.
QUOTE
Currently, the tens of thousands of civilians and fighters remaining in eastern Aleppo have been devastated by bombings and are surrounded by the Syrian army. Recovering the entire city and its environs is crucial for Assad, and that goal once again requires cutting the supply road of Azaz. In that scenario, the surrounded rebels in Aleppo would be forced to evacuate the city, as happened in Homs. To be sure, ousting the rebels will be difficult -- although only five kilometers separate the main regime-controlled Shiite pockets northwest of Aleppo (Bashkuy and Zahra-Nubl), the area in question is a dense urban zone, so the army would likely be forced to go house by house. Moreover, that small corridor is of high strategic value to the rebels, so it is very well defended. The Russian air force is intensively bombing rebel positions in Anadan and Haritan, suggesting that a general offensive is brewing. Yet if the regime and its Shiite allies want to succeed this time, they will need the PYD's support.
QUOTE
The PYD is present in the mountainous Kurd Dagh area around Afrin, whose entire population is Kurdish. It is also present in the Sheikh Maqsoud district north of Aleppo, a large informal suburb. The Kurds hope to link Kobane with Afrin in order to make their "Rojava" (the PYD's name for Kurdish territory in Syria) a single entity. But Turkey strongly objects to this objective. It complained about the PYD's annexation of Tal Abyad last spring and bombed Kurdish forces opposite Jarabulus in June. Ankara is adamant that the PYD not cross the Euphrates River to seize Jarabulus, even though the city is under IS control.
QUOTE
The latter scenario is precisely what Vladimir Putin wants. Ever since Turkey shot down one of his bombers last month, he is bent on seeking revenge. Moreover, he already offered military support to the Kurds in September to help them link Afrin with Kobane by seizing Azaz and Jarabulus. The PYD then attempted to raise the stakes with their U.S. partner, but without success apparently. Earlier this month, however, Moscow delivered weapons to the 5,000 Kurdish fighters in Afrin, while Russian aircraft bombed a convoy of trucks that crossed the Turkish border into Syria at Bab al-Salam. Rebel positions north of Aleppo were struck as well, preparing the ground for an offensive by the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG), the PYD's main militia.
Of course, the Islamic State could seize the opportunity to overrun Azaz before the YPG. IS forces have already captured the village of Kafrah, only ten kilometers down the road from Azaz. It occupied the town a few months before the fratricidal fighting between rebel groups in winter 2014. But this does not bother the Russians or Assad, whose primary interest is to see the road between Aleppo and Turkey cut -- whether by IS or the PYD.
QUOTE
The Azaz corridor may or may not fall, but the bigger U.S.-Turkish goal remains securing the Marea-Jarabulus corridor from IS, and any future Azaz-Jarabulus corridor if Azaz falls to the group. In other words, if the corridor is overrun, broader US-Turkish policy in this area (backed by allies from Incirlik) would essentially become two steps forward, one step back.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-...sh-intervention