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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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Hansel
post Feb 4 2016, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Feb 4 2016, 11:33 AM)
Takes a few days for the TPPA effects to sink in?
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Depends on the cause in question, if the cause is strong enough, the effect can be seen in steep drops and steep rises. Look at the graph after the budget speeches.
Hansel
post Feb 18 2016, 06:45 PM

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IF the MYR dips back below 4.00,......really surprise, surprise,....
Hansel
post Feb 19 2016, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Feb 18 2016, 10:03 PM)
if can reach 4.00 is very good achievement, considering all the issues faced now flex.gif  sweat.gif
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Right,...what happens if all issues are cleared-up ? And then,...is it possible for ALL the current issues to clear-up ?
Hansel
post Feb 19 2016, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 19 2016, 11:00 AM)
considering all the issues now, i think chance of 4.40 is higher than 4.00. tongue.gif

but... 4.2x mostly in the absence of earth breaking development.

quite steady now.

best not to focus on ex rate but on where and what to get decent roi - that is going to be the bigger challenge.
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biggrin.gif

In order to get decent ROI, we have to make a decision if we are to continue connverting the MYR now into the USD/SGD, or wait till the MYR strengthens further to open another window. smile.gif

You haven't answered my question... can all the current internal problems be solved and reset to like mid-2014 ? smile.gif
Hansel
post Feb 19 2016, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Feb 19 2016, 12:20 PM)
Can if more solif proof and pressure appear. But will need a big miracle/magic to happen. Right now is hang in there and keep converting your RM out.
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Okay, bro,.... rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Feb 19 2016, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 19 2016, 01:13 PM)
i can't answer that for you. tongue.gif

I only have a view for myself.

Those problems will be "solved" one way or another, with a heavy price.

Reset to 2014? No chance, severe damage done.
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If no chance to reset back everything to pre-crisis, then certainly no chance for MYR to return to 3.80,... or 2.80... smile.gif So onward,...
Hansel
post Feb 19 2016, 06:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 19 2016, 05:28 PM)
ballooning debt, billions unaccounted for, bleedy capital flight, brain drain, low oil price, scandal after scandal.

and u expect it to return to 3.8, 2.8? tongue.gif
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rclxms.gif

Okay, news today said there will be 1.5 Mil Banglas joining us in Msia in the next three years. More voters for them,....
Hansel
post Mar 1 2016, 08:06 PM

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I wonder then how far can the RM go ?
Hansel
post Mar 7 2016, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(HarpArtist @ Mar 6 2016, 11:37 AM)
i was still drinking milk a decade ago biggrin.gif

yes smes are in terrible difficult situations. sometimes the best option is to do well and sell out or merge quickly to larger groups.

hedging by sme is so risky. because it represents so much of their capital. if a big corp guess wrong its a slap on the wrist but for sme it could well be fatal.
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Selling-out an SME poses problems too to the employees and especially to the management/owners. With a sum of money in-hand, 'ex-owners' will either have to find and start another business all over again,... or become dependant on their next-of-kins, as in retirement,... if not, how to find income ? Can't possibly just sit down and eat-up all their reserves made from the sale, right ?

Employees may be made redundant if there are similar employees from the big corporate,...
Hansel
post Mar 22 2016, 10:56 AM

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When I observed the mkt closely, I see that even if the price of oil continues to increase, the upside for the MYR is limited. This indicates we have a floor here.

SGD-wise,....we are talking about a floor of MYR2.9850 to 1 SGD.

AND,.........the SGD has strengthened against the USD recently !!

Hence the saying always : 'on a gradually appreciating trend'. Let's see what the MAS says in the coming policy mtg in April.
Hansel
post Mar 22 2016, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Mar 22 2016, 11:22 AM)
ya, i noticed.

sgd has gained 3% vs usd in the last 2 months.

and sgx stocks been rising too.

good for u! thumbup.gif
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biggrin.gif Tq,..AV,..

Hopefully Sgp will be able to stand for another 50 years,...as in another SG50 thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

Soon, it will be time to 'give something back to the Sgp society', for giving so much to us. That's the right thing to do,...like contributing to the SG public by helping to disseminate proper investing knowledge. thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

'Right thinking, Right behaviour, leading to Right decisions most of the time,...'
Hansel
post Mar 22 2016, 11:42 AM

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Choosing the Right market is very important too !!! thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
Hansel
post Mar 22 2016, 05:43 PM

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Hold-on before changing more into the SGD or USD.
Hansel
post Mar 22 2016, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(kit2 @ Mar 22 2016, 11:49 PM)
3.98 now!
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Let it rise, let it rise,... waiting to convert to the USD and the SGD again,.... rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif rclxm9.gif
Hansel
post Mar 23 2016, 06:49 AM

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QUOTE(dwin95 @ Mar 23 2016, 01:37 AM)
pretty impossible for usd to strengthen back to >MYR 4.3 right?
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Not really,... we don't know the effect will be whenthe Feds starts to signal rate hikes again,...
Hansel
post Mar 23 2016, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(langstrasse @ Mar 23 2016, 09:18 PM)
There are so many predictions right now it's hard to keep track and make sense of them.

What if you kept a pre-determined % of your net worth in USDs and just maintained it, as a form of diversification and not really to look for gains - in this case you wouldn't really be concerned in fluctuations right ?
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This is my strategy. And whenever I sense that the USD has strengthened against the SGD and the USD,... I will always buy more of the SGD and the USD. In the long run,... I am bullish on the SGD and the USD against the MYR.
Hansel
post Mar 24 2016, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Mar 24 2016, 06:40 AM)
thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif

Great minds think alike ?  biggrin.gif
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smile.gif
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 03:31 PM

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Guys,... I'm sorry to say this, but if your amount is not big enough, there is really not much to make from currency trading,... especially when you need to exchange with a broker or a money-changer, hoping after that that the currency-pair will move in your favour, and then converting it back to pocket the profit. It's really not worth the risk and the time,... and not worth the wait too for the movement to take place too.

After you have converted into the foreign currency of your choice, you need to invest that foreign currency that you have just obtained in-hand and ake more of tat foreign currency amount, while not losing the principal.

Then as you make more of that foreign currency, you will have the luxury of converting it back to the Ringgit in future when you needed to use the Ringgit in Malaysia, or,............the Ringgit falls enough for you to do so profitably.

This is the ONLY way.
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Mar 29 2016, 05:20 PM)
A very rare occasion that I completely agree with your views  blush.gif

The volatility that we have seen for the past 1 year on forex is not something that we should expect for coming year....
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It's good to disagree,... then we will be 'notified earlier' if we could be wrong.... many of my accomplishments are borne from knowing early if I am wrong,... so let it out, by all means,...

I was commenting on using the money-changer to earn on forex spreads. It is almost impossible to buy atthe highest or at tje lowest points. Hence it will be somewhere 'after the rise' or 'after the drop',.... is the amount made due to the spread justifiable for amounts of up to, say,...RM300K to play ?
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 04:21 PM)
I don't fully agree. Remember the argument I have with unker dreamer, he said holding USD cash is better than holding RM. Anyway, I am going to put aside some cash in the future and try the money changer way (experiment and see if I can get anything)
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You are hoping for the following scenario :-

On Mar 07, 2016 - you changed MYR500K into USD123319.06 with an exchange rate of 4.0545, the recent one-month low.

You are hoping that on Mar 16, 2016, you can change back the USD123319.06 into MYR512553.91 at an exchange rate of 4.1563.

Hence, your profit should be MYR512553.91 - MYR500K - MYR12553.91.

To make it happen, you will have to have MYR500K to change with the money-changer, time things nicely to catch the bottom and the top, and to ensure the market volatility is still there moving forward. Any amount lower than MYR500K will reduce that profit to be earned.

smile.gif

If you don't find a way to invest that USD123319.06, then you will just be sitting there waiting for the pair to move in your advantage,... for as long as it's necessary.

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