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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 09:40 AM)
brent 29.72.

usd strong.

china still jittery.

rm4.4x about to take root.

come jan 28, bijan's budget revision may take it to 4.5 with one stroke.
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But,...in the last budget ann't back in October 2015, the RInggit strengthened after the ann't.. Will the same thing happen again this time,... or will the reverse happen ?

Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 12:36 PM)
I don't see how his known brand of revision will help the rm.
Already said civil service will not be touched.
Can assume pm dept budget will be same or increased.
Can safely say br1m will increase.
Likely cut health, transport, education... ministries budget that do not affect vote base directly.

At this time, the rm cannot be manipulated internally so easily. The far bigger forces of usd,  rmb and oil are very much in charge.

One thing I will pleased to hear, though - rm30 biliion donor found. tongue.gif
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Hi AV,... why did it help the RM when the budget was first announced in October 2015 ?
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 02:42 PM)
that, u have to tell me.

i don't remember!
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Yes, the RM did strengthen to around RM3.00 to 1 SGD back during the weekend immediately after he laid out the budget speech on that Friday evening,... I don't remember how much it strengthen to the USD, though,... I remembered it very, very distinctly because I had to break my back running around to a few money-changers to change my RM into the SGD, about RM500K on that Saturday and Sunday.

Yes, the RM did strengthen back then.... Hoping it will do so again this time round,.... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 05:31 PM

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Withdrew ard RM300K earlier, put into safe deposit box and then topped-up by withdrawing a further RM200K from ASM on that same Friday evening. Converted everything at money-changers on the following Saturday.
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 03:10 PM)
whatever it did, it didn't last.

won't be different this time.

not until major changes happen.

and that is unlikely.

expect same old, same old...
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That's right - the window to convert will be very small. Therefore must get hold of our funds quickly and then convert over quickly before the RM weakens again. Only question now is : will the RM strengthen again for awhile ?
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 14 2016, 06:34 PM)
wah u dare to carry total 500k around rclxms.gif
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Well,.. nobody will notice since we don't do it all the time. Went with friends, after changing from one money-changer, brought to the car, drove off to the safe dep box company, and repeated this cycle until all changed. Ladies are even more unnoticeable. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 14 2016, 07:39 PM)
oh u went with friends rclxms.gif I don't trust friends.. Only close family membes esp parents.. Others no go for money matters blush.gif and HNWS did ask good question.. How u gonna bring the $$ to SG? hmm.gif
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Again, bring in batches and with friends.
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 08:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 14 2016, 07:20 PM)
I am planning to buy some usd before Jan 28.

I am not hopeful rm will strengthen before or after that date.

Whenever it gets to 4.35, I hope it gets better, but no.... tongue.gif

Frankly, I am puzzled on any case why there's any chance the rm will strengthen besides USA resuming QE and/or China revalue the rmb... Both next to impossible at this time given all that is happening around the globe.

Add on top our gomen's insatiable appetite to squander and borrow, with big support from the masses, of course.
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One possibility is when foreign investors view some moves made by the MY Gov't is appealing to foreign investors, after which they will buy the RM. We don't really know how they think. In the previous budget ann't, this was what happened. Back then, oil price was already dropping, there were talks of Feds hike, and some prbs seen in the Chinese economy. The RM strengthened after the budget speech.
Hansel
post Jan 14 2016, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 14 2016, 08:08 PM)
But that will make transfering via TT cheaper unless of course your transport is FOC
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Wrong, bro,... savings in exchange rates always outweighs transport charges for such sums. And I always have somewhere to go, or something to do, or someone to visit when I am there. It;s like going home for me,... so, no issues there.
Hansel
post Jan 15 2016, 05:16 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 15 2016, 05:06 PM)
Low interest rate in the last few years was a fallout of US QE. With US interest rate on uptrend, unless MYR is non convertible, MYR is almost certain to follow US rate rise.
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This is only true if the Feds are right, and the economic numbers coming out from the US justifies more hikes down the road. IF the Feds suddenly decides to reverse rates, then everything goes in the opposite.

The US economy depend, to a certain extent, on world economy too. With China throwing-in a spanner into the 'gearbox' in the first trading week of the year, the world has slowed down badly. Can't really tell what will happen from now....


Hansel
post Jan 15 2016, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 15 2016, 05:54 PM)
Low commodities price is like tax cut to consumers, expect a pickup and sustainable growth in many industries. China economy slow down is beneficial to the rest of the world.
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Why do you say this ? So far in 2016, I am not seeing anything beneficial to the rest of the world with China slowdown.
Hansel
post Jan 15 2016, 06:57 PM

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Low fuel price should translate into cheaper charges for transportation. Has anybody seen cheaper flight tickets around, whether from budget carriers, or from full-service carriers ?
Hansel
post Jan 16 2016, 02:02 PM

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Thank you to all forummers for your responses,... thank you. It is good that we continue to dialogue now, for in times like this, engaging in dialogues will shape our thinking and thought patterns in directions that we can gain advantage from.

Seeing the responses that I got about falling petrol prices, I am now even more reinforced into thinking that in Msia, when prices go up, they will never drop again. We, the consumers, should never let prices incarese in the first place.

The thinking that when prices drop, 'more profit for me' is very true.

As for benefits to the world when China slowsdown and devalues the RMB, I am really doubtful that it takes time for the effects to trickle through. When times do turn around later on, I would say that it is a combination of actions around that world that caused the turnaround, and not because of the Chinese slowdown.

One can always argue that it's because of the structural reforms in China that brought about the slowdown, and such reforms are good for everybody at the end of the day, it's really unfathomable for one to visualize this.

I am glad I have cleared all my debts,... debtfree now, leaving ALL my funds (= my bullets) ready to capitalize on this selldown. It is always good to clear your loans, you never know when the interest rate will go up.
Hansel
post Jan 16 2016, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 16 2016, 01:32 PM)
jet fuel a diff beast?

it is basically kerosene.

and price drop same like crude, gaosline, diesel, heating oil, etc.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_w.htm
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Well,... guessed that I am not too keen to know the mechanics behind the pricing of jetfuel,.. all I needed to know is I am still not saving any funds in my flights to SG and to the USA. sad.gif
Hansel
post Jan 16 2016, 05:39 PM

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Sorry can't help it,...cooking oil from crude oil biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Jan 16 2016, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 16 2016, 04:12 PM)
"profit" is about margin and volume.

not necessary higher margin = more profits.

many biz raise price but still close down... becos vol drop like hell. biggrin.gif

i see so many restaurants, pharmacies, carwashes, etc. closing down - simply insufficient volume.

people just don't have the disposable income to keep paying higher and higher prices.
what's happening in china is really the end result of years of QE in USA, EU and Japan.

so much new and easy money fueling price incr everywhere and everything.

but the buck has stopped, so the buying stopped.

this factory of the world called china has to slow down - the orders have slowed down.
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What scares me is that I heard from speakers now and then that though the numbers say the Chinese economy is bad now, but in actual fact the service industry in China is actually booming, which means... China is NOT really dependant on producing goods anymore. They are slowly moving from a manufacturing-led economy to higher levels and higher value-add industries, eg Singapore.

So, for investors waiting for China to come back will never see this happening because the numbers coming out from China will never improve anymore. Why ? Because the numbers that we see coming out from China are actually numbers based on the manufacturing activities, which have long dominated China's performance. Investors worldwide will be misled.

And then, if China moves on into a service-led economy, prices of commodities will NEVER go back up again because China will never need to import too much of such commodities anymore. Perhaps another lower-cost country will take-up the slack to be the world's factory, but till now, I don't see any country that has the capability to replace China as a world consumer of commodities.

If the above is the new reality, then Australia and other EM countries which depended a lot upon commodity pricings will be in big trouble.
Hansel
post Jan 17 2016, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 17 2016, 12:02 PM)
does look that way.

will be trying hard to get "best" rate soon. wink.gif
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A 'visible' target would be one day after the Budget Revision Day, January 29th., Friday. Otherwise, you gotta watch closely everyday and quickly convert when the RM suddenly strengthens.
Hansel
post Jan 17 2016, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 17 2016, 07:07 PM)
Oh no... you are clinging on to "budget revision will help rm".

I say any possibility to help already discounted, can only hurt it.

No chance bijan & co. will do anything except barricade themselves, buy votes.

Don't forget zeti is history, no eye see.
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Guessed I am not the type who will just sit down and say we are doomed,....I prefer to say there is always a way out,... smile.gif We just have to find it !!
Hansel
post Jan 20 2016, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 19 2016, 11:42 PM)
The developments of China's economy, coupled with the renmimbi's changing behaviour, will continue to weigh on the ringgit's movements, said HSBC Head of Global Emerging Market FX Research, Paul Mackel.

He said the local unit was expected to be relatively stable at 4.40 against the US dollar, mainly influenced by the updates from China as well as renmimbi's pattern.

"The risks that have impact on the ringgit would derive from commodity prices. However, right now, it is all about China and renmimbi," he said, adding that condition that would push the local currency lower was more on external factors rather than local.

He said the US Federal Reserve System's (Fed) tightening cycles would see the greenback to be traded lower and not strengthen.

He said in the past the US dollar tended to not responding well once the Fed started to raise interest rate.

"If you ask many people why they like US dollar, they will say it is because of the high interest rate, but actually in the past, the US dollar fell every time they do that (raise interest rate)," he said.

He said overall, the US dollar was expected to weaken against major currencies including Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.

However, against the emerging market currencies, it would post a stronger performance, he said.

http://www.kinibiz.com/story/markets/21020...-us-dollar.html
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1) Mr Mackel is contradicting himself when he commented in the following ways :-

a) He said the local unit was expected to be relatively stable at 4.40 against the US dollar,...

b) However, against the emerging market currencies, it would post a stronger performance, he said.

2) I would agree with Mr Mackel when he commented that in the previous four Fed rate hikes, there were times when the USD weakened in a general sense,... BUT to us in Msia,... the USD has generally strengthened against our MYR during hikes, be it from the USD strengthening against us, though weakening against other currencies, OR; our MYR weakening against the USD. The nett effect is the same. sad.gif

In order to catch-up with the USD, our BNM has to raise the OPR. But this time, can they raise the OPR ??????

3) Either way, there is still a risk against purchasing the USD, not only for us Msians, but also for other nationalities of the world,... after what happened in the subprime crisis of 2008/9. Hence, we must select a currency for which there is a higher chance to appreciate against the MYR, the USD, and against many other currencies of the world, and invest into that currency. Or, another way would be to load-up on as many types of currencies as possible and diversify out our holdings.
Hansel
post Jan 20 2016, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 20 2016, 09:05 AM)
19 Jan 2016 01:00 UTC - 20 Jan 2016 01:01 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.37818 low:4.35506 high:4.39790

Not much movement
Awaiting next big thing on 28/1
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nod.gif ...hopefully the MYR strengthens on Friday, Jan 29th.... Then convert !!!!!!!!!!


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