QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jan 19 2016, 11:42 PM)
The developments of China's economy, coupled with the renmimbi's changing behaviour, will continue to weigh on the ringgit's movements, said HSBC Head of Global Emerging Market FX Research, Paul Mackel.
He said the local unit was expected to be relatively stable at 4.40 against the US dollar, mainly influenced by the updates from China as well as renmimbi's pattern.
"The risks that have impact on the ringgit would derive from commodity prices. However, right now, it is all about China and renmimbi," he said, adding that condition that would push the local currency lower was more on external factors rather than local.
He said the US Federal Reserve System's (Fed) tightening cycles would see the greenback to be traded lower and not strengthen.
He said in the past the US dollar tended to not responding well once the Fed started to raise interest rate.
"If you ask many people why they like US dollar, they will say it is because of the high interest rate, but actually in the past, the US dollar fell every time they do that (raise interest rate)," he said.
He said overall, the US dollar was expected to weaken against major currencies including Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.
However, against the emerging market currencies, it would post a stronger performance, he said.
http://www.kinibiz.com/story/markets/21020...-us-dollar.html1) Mr Mackel is contradicting himself when he commented in the following ways :-
a) He said the local unit was expected to be relatively stable at 4.40 against the US dollar,...
b) However, against the emerging market currencies, it would post a stronger performance, he said.
2) I would agree with Mr Mackel when he commented that in the previous four Fed rate hikes, there were times when the USD weakened in a general sense,... BUT to us in Msia,... the USD has generally strengthened against our MYR during hikes, be it from the USD strengthening against us, though weakening against other currencies, OR; our MYR weakening against the USD. The nett effect is the same.
In order to catch-up with the USD, our BNM has to raise the OPR. But this time, can they raise the OPR ??????
3) Either way, there is still a risk against purchasing the USD, not only for us Msians, but also for other nationalities of the world,... after what happened in the subprime crisis of 2008/9. Hence, we must select a currency for which there is a higher chance to appreciate against the MYR, the USD, and against many other currencies of the world, and invest into that currency. Or, another way would be to load-up on as many types of currencies as possible and diversify out our holdings.