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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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Hansel
post Jan 21 2016, 08:54 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jan 20 2016, 10:30 PM)
19 Jan 2016 14:20 UTC - 20 Jan 2016 14:24 UTC
USD/MYR close:4.39347 low:4.35739 high:4.40569

Key highlights tis week include OPR statement (21/1) n intl reserves (22/1) which may dictate the short term movement
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So,... did BNM increase the OPR this evening ? I highly doubt so....
Hansel
post Jan 22 2016, 10:25 AM

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Run-up to Budget Revision,...strengthening day-by-day,...
Hansel
post Jan 25 2016, 03:45 PM

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I think change-over half of what we have positioned for today. Then if it drops further tmrw,... change over the rest.

Then watch for Thursday,....
Hansel
post Jan 26 2016, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 26 2016, 02:25 PM)
midf also think srr cut did boost the rm last friday.
did u manage to get a good rate?

public holiday yesterday

today, back to 4.29.

crude <30 again.
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Hi AV,... managed to convert into the SGD yesterday at 2.9980. Did not convert any into the USD this time round. I feel I need to focus a bit more n the USD for now because the liquidity of the SGD in Msia is getting lower. Money-changers seemed to be hoarding the SGD, holding-on to the currency.

Edited because was informed wrongly of the rate used to exchange my funds yesterday. Corrected,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jan 26 2016, 02:45 PM
Hansel
post Jan 26 2016, 06:34 PM

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QUOTE(wjchay @ Jan 26 2016, 03:00 PM)
Hi Hansel,

How did you manage to get SGD at 2.9980, can share?

I went to money changer on Sunday, only managed to change at 3.02. Today the money changer rate is 3.01.

Thanks.
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I can share these :-

1) on Friday, a big money-changer can unload SGD to me at 3.01.

2) on Saturday, the same money-changer can unload SGD to me at 3.00.

3) on Monday, managed to purchase at 2.9980 from above money-changer.

4) for comparison, on Monday too, two money-changers could offer me at 3.00.

The interbank rate hovered at around 2.9750 and 2.9815 in the middle of the day on Monday.

Hansel
post Jan 26 2016, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 26 2016, 06:38 PM)
i think it's a pretty good rate. well done!

of course, the bigger issue is about how to "use" it. biggrin.gif
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Tq AV,...I need to thank the money-changer too for being willing to unload his SGD for me. Perhaps he thinks the SGD may depreciate soon, when April comes and the MAS lowers the band for the the SGD is traded upon,... due to the weakening economy. We never know how they think,...

Now,.. with the ammo in, need to load-up on,.....

1) ...
2) ...
3) ...
Hansel
post Jan 26 2016, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 26 2016, 06:44 PM)
please share in the xyz thread.

i have some more sgd to "use". tongue.gif
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OK..
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 11:17 AM

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It's 11.15 am now,...another 15 mins to the Budget Revision in KL. As we speak, the MYR continues to strengthen. Readying ammo,.... readying contacts,....
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 11:18 AM

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Interbank Rate now - 2.9583.
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2016, 12:22 PM)
BBB !
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Not yet,...steady,... sweat.gif
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 12:48 PM

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QUOTE(wu ming @ Jan 28 2016, 12:40 PM)
Will this strengthening only be permanent?

I guess the money changer will be sold out of "hot" currency notes by today.
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Acknowledge this one first,....roger that ! Soon,.. need to do booking already,...
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 12:50 PM

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QUOTE(wu ming @ Jan 28 2016, 12:40 PM)
Will this strengthening only be permanent?

I guess the money changer will be sold out of "hot" currency notes by today.
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Won't be permamnent,.. same phenomenon seen during last BUdget Ann't,... history is repeating itself all over again. We can predict history now,...
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2016, 12:32 PM)
Buy in batches, bro. I know I am won't be able to buy at the lowest  tongue.gif
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Bro,.. save your money,.. it will dive further,..extrapolate the Yahoo graph,...
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2016, 01:12 PM)
Bro, you have split personality ? In tabung haji thread, you said this :
tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif

Anyway, different person got different strategy. Do what you think is right  thumbup.gif
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Bro Showtime,... sorry, when I said now, I meant in a general sense, not in absoluteness as in converting at the moment that I said 'now'. Continuing to watch the bounces,... wait for the signal,...
Hansel
post Jan 28 2016, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 28 2016, 01:20 PM)
Ok, bro....

P/s my "ok" is also in a general sense, not in absoluteness as in "ok"....  drool.gif

Just joking bro  thumbup.gif
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Hansel
post Jan 31 2016, 11:36 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 30 2016, 10:53 AM)
No lah. Never have intention to pwnd anyone. Just that I feel setting a timeframe and quantum for any prediction/forecast will be more meaningful. Otherwise, there is no end to any discussion. We keep on tok kok only...

I learned this from the property bubble thread which never end despite dragging for 4-5 years. Its like a ghost movie which the ghost never appear. And the producer keep asking you to continue wait in the theater until the ghost appear  doh.gif 

As proven in unker dreamer's case, it is a better way to decide who is "the stupid one"
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Bro Showtime,... someting just occured to me this evening. Referring to part of Unker's statement earlier,... he said that holding on to the RM would erode purchasing power. If, say,.. even if the RM manages to strengthen, will purchasing power come back ??... Meaning, will the stronger RM vs the USD be able to buyback the same amount of goods that it used to command earlier ?
Hansel
post Feb 1 2016, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Feb 1 2016, 12:12 AM)
It won't. But if you are buying goods from the US, then it's a all new story. Eg, the item was usd10 at 4.4 and now say ringgit is at 4.1 and the item is still usd10, you will get it a cheaper price.

Personal experience shows that online stores from US seldom increase in price. They do once a while but like once a blue moon. So if you are buying straight from US, you will get back your purchasing power. smile.gif
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Yes, of course,... buying from the US will reflect directly onto the exchange rate,... as in buying goods, going to the US, paying for tuition fees, etc,... it's obvious. I'm not talking about the US now,...

I suspect we have lost our earlier 'local purchasing power' forever after that exchange rate stunt. sad.gif
Hansel
post Feb 1 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Feb 1 2016, 10:39 AM)
this will be the case.

even if rm move back to 4.0, the local purchasing power damage is done.

petrol price been coming down. do we hear biz people lowering prices?
at the base, there has been a stagnant income or income trap problem for years.

add gst, toll hikes, weak rm, etc., the pressure for price inflation has been high and will stay high.

biz people will seize any opportunity to make more profits; taxman will keep trying to get more tax.

low income groups and retirees will bear the brunt for a long time.
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Tq, AV,...

Low wage earners will really see that they are not earning enough to cover their living expenses.

Higher wage earners will see their disposable income getting less for them to spend and to go on holidays, etc,...

Biz people who have pricing power may be able to prosper (due to lower competition outside), otherwise, will also fall into the same predicament as the higher wage earners.

Retirees who do not have income and who have stagnant income will fall into the same predicament as the low wage earners.

Investors who have not invested with the right decisions will be decimated !!!
Hansel
post Feb 2 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 1 2016, 10:41 PM)
So far, the prices of goods which showed marked increases are imported stuff. Imported food like canned food, fruits etc have increased tremendously. Gadget like computer/Iphone also badly affected. But if RM is back to 3.30, I think the market forces will bring the prices back down, although it may take time

As for local stuff with local ingredient and content, I think the rise is not so much. For food like wan tan mee and nasi lemak, I can see the price rise when GST is implemented in April. But when RM depreciated to 4.40 from June, price of those local stuff still largely remained the same

Just my personal observation...
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Thanks Showtime,.. For us urban folks, I would think the inflation effect is definitely 'killing'. I can feel the prices of goods and services around me rising throughout the whole of last year.
Hansel
post Feb 4 2016, 11:28 AM

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No huge dropdown plunges nor sharp climbs seen after the TPPA ann't from Auckland this morning. So,... to the eyes grasping on the graph, the charts are still open to other fundamental influences coming-in.

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