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 USD/MYR drop, v3

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Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 03:31 PM

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Guys,... I'm sorry to say this, but if your amount is not big enough, there is really not much to make from currency trading,... especially when you need to exchange with a broker or a money-changer, hoping after that that the currency-pair will move in your favour, and then converting it back to pocket the profit. It's really not worth the risk and the time,... and not worth the wait too for the movement to take place too.

After you have converted into the foreign currency of your choice, you need to invest that foreign currency that you have just obtained in-hand and ake more of tat foreign currency amount, while not losing the principal.

Then as you make more of that foreign currency, you will have the luxury of converting it back to the Ringgit in future when you needed to use the Ringgit in Malaysia, or,............the Ringgit falls enough for you to do so profitably.

This is the ONLY way.
nexona88
post Mar 29 2016, 03:48 PM

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convert some into USD @ 4.0400 blush.gif
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 29 2016, 03:31 PM)
Guys,... I'm sorry to say this, but if your amount is not big enough, there is really not much to make from currency trading,... especially when you need to exchange with a broker or a money-changer, hoping after that that the currency-pair will move in your favour, and then converting it back to pocket the profit. It's really not worth the risk and the time,... and not worth the wait too for the movement to take place too.

After you have converted into the foreign currency of your choice, you need to invest that foreign currency that you have just obtained in-hand and ake more of tat foreign currency amount, while not losing the principal.

Then as you make more of that foreign currency, you will have the luxury of converting it back to the Ringgit in future when you needed to use the Ringgit in Malaysia, or,............the Ringgit falls enough for you to do so profitably.

This is the ONLY way.
*
I don't fully agree. Remember the argument I have with unker dreamer, he said holding USD cash is better than holding RM. Anyway, I am going to put aside some cash in the future and try the money changer way (experiment and see if I can get anything)

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 29 2016, 04:22 PM
dasecret
post Mar 29 2016, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 29 2016, 03:31 PM)
Guys,... I'm sorry to say this, but if your amount is not big enough, there is really not much to make from currency trading,... especially when you need to exchange with a broker or a money-changer, hoping after that that the currency-pair will move in your favour, and then converting it back to pocket the profit. It's really not worth the risk and the time,... and not worth the wait too for the movement to take place too.

After you have converted into the foreign currency of your choice, you need to invest that foreign currency that you have just obtained in-hand and ake more of tat foreign currency amount, while not losing the principal.

Then as you make more of that foreign currency, you will have the luxury of converting it back to the Ringgit in future when you needed to use the Ringgit in Malaysia, or,............the Ringgit falls enough for you to do so profitably.

This is the ONLY way.
*
A very rare occasion that I completely agree with your views blush.gif

The volatility that we have seen for the past 1 year on forex is not something that we should expect for coming year....
nexona88
post Mar 29 2016, 06:05 PM

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28 Mar 2016 10:00 UTC - 29 Mar 2016 10:02 UTC
USD/MYR close: 3.99360 low: 3.98711 high: 4.01624

Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 29 2016, 06:05 PM)
28 Mar 2016 10:00 UTC - 29 Mar 2016 10:02 UTC
USD/MYR close: 3.99360 low: 3.98711 high: 4.01624
*
Come on. Move downwards some more. Let the RM rise. bangwall.gif bangwall.gif
nexona88
post Mar 29 2016, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 06:14 PM)
Come on. Move downwards some more. Let the RM rise.  bangwall.gif  bangwall.gif
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what level u wanted? hmm.gif
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 29 2016, 06:19 PM)
what level u wanted?  hmm.gif
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3.6-3.7 laugh.gif
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Mar 29 2016, 05:20 PM)
A very rare occasion that I completely agree with your views  blush.gif

The volatility that we have seen for the past 1 year on forex is not something that we should expect for coming year....
*
It's good to disagree,... then we will be 'notified earlier' if we could be wrong.... many of my accomplishments are borne from knowing early if I am wrong,... so let it out, by all means,...

I was commenting on using the money-changer to earn on forex spreads. It is almost impossible to buy atthe highest or at tje lowest points. Hence it will be somewhere 'after the rise' or 'after the drop',.... is the amount made due to the spread justifiable for amounts of up to, say,...RM300K to play ?
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 04:21 PM)
I don't fully agree. Remember the argument I have with unker dreamer, he said holding USD cash is better than holding RM. Anyway, I am going to put aside some cash in the future and try the money changer way (experiment and see if I can get anything)
*
You are hoping for the following scenario :-

On Mar 07, 2016 - you changed MYR500K into USD123319.06 with an exchange rate of 4.0545, the recent one-month low.

You are hoping that on Mar 16, 2016, you can change back the USD123319.06 into MYR512553.91 at an exchange rate of 4.1563.

Hence, your profit should be MYR512553.91 - MYR500K - MYR12553.91.

To make it happen, you will have to have MYR500K to change with the money-changer, time things nicely to catch the bottom and the top, and to ensure the market volatility is still there moving forward. Any amount lower than MYR500K will reduce that profit to be earned.

smile.gif

If you don't find a way to invest that USD123319.06, then you will just be sitting there waiting for the pair to move in your advantage,... for as long as it's necessary.
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 29 2016, 07:29 PM)
You are hoping for the following scenario :-

On Mar 07, 2016 - you changed MYR500K into USD123319.06 with an exchange rate of 4.0545, the recent one-month low.

You are hoping that on Mar 16, 2016, you can change back the USD123319.06 into MYR512553.91 at an exchange rate of 4.1563.

Hence, your profit should be MYR512553.91 - MYR500K - MYR12553.91.

To make it happen, you will have to have MYR500K to change with the money-changer, time things nicely to catch the bottom and the top, and to ensure the market volatility is still there moving forward. Any amount lower than MYR500K will reduce that profit to be earned.

smile.gif

If you don't find a way to invest that USD123319.06, then you will just be sitting there waiting for the pair to move in your advantage,... for as long as it's necessary.
*
No way I am going to throw RM500k for something I am not sure. I don't even have RM500k to begin with. I was thinking more along the line of RM10k. Minimum amount for FD promo. Profit of ~RM400/transaction is good enough for me. Never use more than RM10k (principal). Any profit is reused back. So say I managed to profit RM400, so for next round I will use RM10400 instead of just RM10k. Max maybe RM15k. It might just work. But to carry around so much cash to money changer ohmy.gif sweat.gif

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 29 2016, 07:39 PM
Hansel
post Mar 29 2016, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 07:38 PM)
No way I am going to throw RM500k for something I am not sure. I don't even have RM500k to begin with. I was thinking more along the line of RM10k. Minimum amount for FD promo. Profit of ~RM400/transaction is good enough for me. Never use more than RM10k (principal). Any profit is reused back. So say I managed to profit RM400, so for next round I will use RM10400 instead of just RM10k. Max maybe RM15k. It might just work. But to carry around so much cash to money changer  ohmy.gif  sweat.gif
*
Okay,...if you wished to risk RM10K to earn 4%, and you are satisfied with this, then okay,.. But you must be sure you can catch the levels that I mentioned,...
If you put the 10K into ASX, you can easily earn RM400 after one year,.... - NO need to learn charting, no need to watch the mkt, no need to listen to news, etc,...
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 07:56 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 29 2016, 07:45 PM)
Okay,...if you wished to risk RM10K to earn 4%, and you are satisfied with this, then okay,.. But you must be sure you can catch the levels that I mentioned,...
If you put the 10K into ASX, you can easily earn RM400 after one year,.... - NO need to learn charting, no need to watch the mkt, no need to listen to news, etc,...
*
This is RM400/transaction we are talking about. Even a 2x transaction will beat ASX FP. ASX FP gives only say RM630/year. We know that USD/MYR will swing every now and then. How many times in a year have that happen over the past 1 year? Money changer rate won't go up so fast compare to online broker. Downside is the need to bring lump sum of cash with you. I will experiment when I am working to see if my idea is feasible. I am thinking unker dreamer have a point here. Holding USD cash.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Mar 29 2016, 07:59 PM
nexona88
post Mar 29 2016, 08:21 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 07:08 PM)
3.6-3.7  laugh.gif
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too good be true tongue.gif let's reach 3.90 first..
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 29 2016, 08:21 PM)
too good be true tongue.gif let's reach 3.90 first..
*
No strength to go beyond 3.99. HOw to reach 3.9 laugh.gif sad.gif
nexona88
post Mar 29 2016, 08:51 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 08:41 PM)
No strength to go beyond 3.99. HOw to reach 3.9  laugh.gif sad.gif
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tat why I say reach 3.90 first tongue.gif then can talk 3.70 or lower
TSwil-i-am
post Mar 29 2016, 11:18 PM

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MYR is d best performer today in SEA as it appreciate 0.52% to 3.9945
dasecret
post Mar 29 2016, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 29 2016, 07:56 PM)
This is RM400/transaction we are talking about. Even a 2x transaction will beat ASX FP. ASX FP gives only say RM630/year. We know that USD/MYR will swing every now and then. How many times in a year have that happen over the past 1 year? Money changer rate won't go up so fast compare to online broker. Downside is the need to bring lump sum of cash with you. I will experiment when I am working to see if my idea is feasible. I am thinking unker dreamer have a point here. Holding USD cash.
*
To earn 400 per transaction you will need the rate to swing about 0.2 or more taking into consideration the spread charged by money changer. That's 5% swing. How long does it take to achieve that? If u r lucky n strike within 2 weeks to 1 month that may be a good deal. But what if u don't strike even in 3 months? The opportunity cost of 4.5% FD promo rate is already rm100. So nett nett you get rm300 in 3 months, worth the potential downside risk or not?

To be honest, I find your views quite interesting, or bluntly, quite contradicting. At one side you want to make no loss, would only sell the ASx VP funds when you break even, but at the same time willing to take forex risk for a measly gain

This post has been edited by dasecret: Mar 29 2016, 11:39 PM
HarpArtist
post Mar 29 2016, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Mar 29 2016, 11:18 PM)
MYR is d best performer today in SEA as it appreciate 0.52% to 3.9945
*
have been the best over this year...but still not regained the worst ground lost last year. still upside possible.
Ramjade
post Mar 29 2016, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Mar 29 2016, 11:38 PM)
To earn 400 per transaction you will need the rate to swing about 0.2 or more taking into consideration the spread charged by money changer. That's 5% swing. How long does it take to achieve that? If u r lucky n strike within 2 weeks to 1 month that may be a good deal. But what if u don't strike even in 3 months? The opportunity cost of 4.5% FD promo rate is already rm100. So nett nett you get rm300 in 3 months, worth the potential downside risk or not?

To be honest, I find your views quite interesting, or bluntly, quite contradicting. At one side you want to make no loss, would only sell the ASx VP funds when you break even, but at the same time willing to take forex risk for a measly gain
*
Well if you look at it USD/MYR have swing quite a lot. Don't count the 3.8->4.x Count the number of swing of 4.x. If I have access to RM10k, I think easily profit >RM1k already. ASX FP is for emergency fund. Those funds will never be touched as I will make sure that the dividend gained is more than enough to support me for 1 whole year (enough to cover my monthly expenses)

If you want to outrun inflation, you will need something at least 8%. ASX FP cannot give 8%. They only give 6.x%/year = more or less the real inflation. So need risk to gain more. I have counted. Theoretically it is possible provide the money changer spread is 0.1 and not higher. That's why I said, need to experiment to know if it is feasible or not. smile.gif


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