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 Investors Club V9, Previously known as Traders Kopitiam

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TC-Titan
post Dec 3 2015, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 3 2015, 10:53 AM)
Guys, any opinion on BP Plastics? Fundamentally, I'm not interested in TA biggrin.gif
*
Overall, it's a good stock to me.
About 78% export sales. Big bulk is in USD and SGD.
Cashflow, debtors looks really good. Zero borrowings.
Gross n net profit margin improving coz of forex n production efficiency.
4th qtr results should be interesting to look at.
Apart from your normal ratios which are mostly good, some of the valuation computations versus margin of safety doesn't make this stock interesting to me.
But if u're looking at earnings growth n the other strong fundamentals as mentioned above, boleh masuk lori hahaha biggrin.gif

Ps: this stock sudah naik above 100% since 2014 which I believe was mainly due to forex. What are the odds to naik lagi 50% biggrin.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 3 2015, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Dec 3 2015, 12:55 PM)
Overall, it's a good stock to me.
About 78% export sales. Big bulk is in USD and SGD.
Cashflow, debtors looks really good. Zero borrowings.
Gross n net profit margin improving coz of forex n production efficiency.
4th qtr results should be interesting to look at.
Apart from your normal ratios which are mostly good, some of the valuation computations versus margin of safety doesn't make this stock interesting to me.
But if u're looking at earnings growth n the other strong fundamentals as mentioned above, boleh masuk lori hahaha biggrin.gif

Ps: this stock sudah naik above 100% since 2014 which I believe was mainly due to forex. What are the odds to naik lagi 50% biggrin.gif
*
Thanks. Similar observations I've made. Dividend yield good too
Le Don
post Dec 3 2015, 02:40 PM

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Padini not bad these few days rclxms.gif

Anyone here bought po huat?
TC-Titan
post Dec 3 2015, 02:43 PM

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-delete-

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Dec 3 2015, 02:44 PM
TC-Titan
post Dec 3 2015, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 3 2015, 01:25 PM)
Thanks. Similar observations I've made. Dividend yield good too
*
Few other things I noticed:

1. Collective insiders + private organisations = 83% stake in the Company. So this is a tightly controlled company.

2. This statement "The Group continues to seek opportunities for machine and product innovations,
enhance its internal process efficiencies and productivity in the face of the rising operating costs
environment, and implement strategies to achieve higher sales, especially in export market."

This indicates to me that we should expect more capex in the next few quarters. But the interesting part is there is zero capital commitment as at 30 Sept. shakehead.gif

3. There is no disclosure or mention anywhere on the Comp's production volume capacity and sales volume. Banyak secretive. So the company's performance based on sales volume alone is subjective.

4. Need to look at the Comp's peers/competitors and consider who is cheap and has the most potential for further growth. brows.gif


river.sand
post Dec 3 2015, 02:47 PM

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Regarding BPPLAS, I haven't done proper study yet. But at first glance...

1. Its profit and EPS have dropped substantially from the height of 2010.
2. Dividend payout ration is quite high.

Moving forwards, do you see positive signs of this counter?
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 3 2015, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Dec 3 2015, 02:43 PM)
Few other things I noticed:

1. Collective insiders + private organisations = 83% stake in the Company. So this is a tightly controlled company.

2. This statement "The Group continues to seek opportunities for machine and product innovations,
enhance its internal process efficiencies and productivity in the face of the rising operating costs
environment, and implement strategies to achieve higher sales, especially in export market."

This indicates to me that we should expect more capex in the next few quarters. But the interesting part is there is zero capital commitment as at 30 Sept.  shakehead.gif

3. There is no disclosure or mention anywhere on the Comp's production volume capacity and sales volume. Banyak secretive. So the company's performance based on sales volume alone is subjective.

4.  Need to look at the Comp's peers/competitors and consider who is cheap and has the most potential for further growth.  brows.gif
*
Tightly controlled sometimes is good too:
- no wild price swings due to big institutional dumping/buying
- management = controlling shareholders = one aim

And as u noticed, zero borrowings. And quite healthy cash pile. Capex should be no problem to them.
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 3 2015, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Dec 3 2015, 02:47 PM)
Regarding BPPLAS, I haven't done proper study yet. But at first glance...

1. Its profit and EPS have dropped substantially from the height of 2010.
2. Dividend payout ration is quite high.

Moving forwards, do you see positive signs of this counter?
*
I did analysis of financials from past 5 years...

CAGR about 7-8% over the past 5 years

Average payout was about 66% but past 2 years >80% payout

Very cash rich

Margins also improved based on latest quarterly figures

But, latest 9 months revenue, when annualised, dropped. This is the only red flag I see hmm.gif
TC-Titan
post Dec 3 2015, 03:55 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Dec 3 2015, 08:08 AM)
EG Industries...

recently quite a hot stock ...
*
Yeah quite a fair bit of buy calls based on the fundamentals, technicals and coz of two famous fundamental investors who are inside the top 10 shareholders list.
TC-Titan
post Dec 3 2015, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 3 2015, 03:13 PM)
I did analysis of financials from past 5 years...

CAGR about 7-8% over the past 5 years

Average payout was about 66% but past 2 years >80% payout

Very cash rich

Margins also improved based on latest quarterly figures

But, latest 9 months revenue, when annualised, dropped. This is the only red flag I see hmm.gif
*
What's your CAGR based on? Revenue, PBT net profit or EBIT?
I calculated for 5 years 2011 to 2015 (TTM) only obtained CAGR for revenue about 4%. Net profit 1%.

Note: that's without considering into detail one-off items being incurred or earned. Too lazy to look into detail haha

Average of EBIT to revenue would be 6%.
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 3 2015, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Dec 3 2015, 04:06 PM)
What's your CAGR based on? Revenue, PBT net profit or EBIT?
I calculated for 5 years 2011 to 2015 (TTM) only obtained CAGR for revenue about 4%. Net profit 1%.

Note: that's without considering into detail one-off items being incurred or earned. Too lazy to look into detail haha

Average of EBIT to revenue would be 6%.
*
Topline and PBT

I think 6 years, from 2010 to 2015

Sorry tongue.gif
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 3 2015, 04:46 PM

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Wow...Padini 1.90 coming soon rclxms.gif
Le Don
post Dec 3 2015, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Dec 3 2015, 04:46 PM)
Wow...Padini 1.90 coming soon rclxms.gif
*
According to kcchong, the fair value for padini is 2.32

QUOTE
The pay-out ratio of last year is 82%, and the previous year 72%. Taking the average of 77%, a required return of 10%, and a conservative long-term growth in dividend of 5%, the fundamental PE ratio of Padini is worked out to be 15.4

PE = 77% / (10% - 5%) = 15.4

With an estimated forward EPS of 15 sen next year, the fair value of Padini is estimated to be

Fair value, P = 15.4*0.15 = RM2.32

This represents a margin of safety of 21% over its closing price of RM1.83 on 2nd December 2015.


http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/87546.jsp

This post has been edited by Le Don: Dec 3 2015, 05:43 PM
TC-Titan
post Dec 4 2015, 12:04 AM

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Hmmmm noticed a few things about HHGroup:

1. Some monkeys must have spilled the beans on the Comp's results close to 25 Nov before announcement on 30 Nov.
2. Business seem to be slowing down due to China. I wonder how they will be affected based on the rumours/forecast of China's GDP expecting to grow at only 3 to 4% in the next few years.
Sales volume is down but they are being helped by forex gain on USD and RMB.
3. Massive expansion plans in Kelantan about RM31m capex. Expect to be fully operational probably by 4th quarter FY16 if everything goes well.

Mgmt must be very confident with their business to commit such capex even when overall economy doesn't seem to be doing well.

Should be interesting to see how they perform for 4th qtr results and after the new factory is up.

This post has been edited by TC-Titan: Dec 4 2015, 12:05 AM
SUSPink Spider
post Dec 4 2015, 09:18 AM

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HLB looks like gonna re-test one-year low hmm.gif
kevraul
post Dec 4 2015, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Dec 4 2015, 12:04 AM)
Hmmmm noticed a few things about HHGroup:

1. Some monkeys must have spilled the beans on the Comp's results close to 25 Nov before announcement on 30 Nov.
2. Business seem to be slowing down due to China. I wonder how they will be affected based on the rumours/forecast of China's GDP expecting to grow at only 3 to 4% in the next few years.
Sales volume is down but they are being helped by forex gain on USD and RMB.
3. Massive expansion plans in Kelantan about RM31m capex. Expect to be fully operational probably by 4th quarter FY16 if everything goes well.

Mgmt must be very confident with their business to commit such capex even when overall economy doesn't seem to be doing well.

Should be interesting to see how they perform for 4th qtr results and after the new factory is up.
*
thanks for the observation!!
Le Don
post Dec 4 2015, 04:22 PM

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Bought some PoHuat at 1.74. Hopefully can huat whistling.gif
TC-Titan
post Dec 4 2015, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(kevraul @ Dec 4 2015, 10:39 AM)
thanks for the observation!!
*
Lo and behold, KYY also has shares inside HHGroup! and just like that share price kabooom 9 cents up with a 15.9% return in one day.

Really cute la. laugh.gif
TC-Titan
post Dec 4 2015, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Dec 4 2015, 04:22 PM)
Bought some PoHuat at 1.74. Hopefully can huat  whistling.gif
*
Wah ganas la u! haha you're looking for short term hike from 4th qtr results or long-term play? tongue.gif

I like your Mitra though brows.gif
TC-Titan
post Dec 4 2015, 11:46 PM

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Pink spider Look what I ter-found....

QUOTE
We were negatively surprised by the LOD (refer overleaf for details) as the demand was filed more than 18 months after the initial tie-up. The impact could be significant as the amount of RM21.6m represents >75% of our projected FY15 net profit. On the bright side, CENTURY does not have any ongoing contracts with Nestle, thus the risk of revenue loss is nil. We think the dispute might drag on for a long period of time of time. Assuming the worst case scenario where CENTURY was to pay the full demanded amount of RM21.6m, we think its expansion plan to build a multi-storey warehouse will still proceed but FY16E net gearing could increase to 0.53x from 0.46x as initially projected. As for the impact to earnings, the extra borrowings, if any arising from the payment could increase its interest expenses by as much as RM1.1m (3.4% of FY16E net profit) assuming an interest rate of 5% p.a.
Kenanga - CENTURY

If assuming worse scenario Century makes around 25m prov for the legal case and ends up paying for it. I think the entire amount will be non-deductible coz the expenses incurred is not related to producing gross income. So that would mean the wonderful EPS, PE, cashflow, reputation etc all will hancur. But this thing will pass in time la but the damage done could be detrimental.

What do you think?

If we ignore the legal case aside, the stock's fundamentals and prospects look lovely.

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