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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 01:22 PM)
i just did. tongue.gif
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Congrats,... rclxms.gif

But, disclaimer : if that report is wrong and Sgp turns out just like Bolehland in 10 years time, don't blame me. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Sep 21 2015, 02:03 PM)
laugh.gif Singapore ke arah kuasa besar dunia. won't become like BolehLand said one unker  sweat.gif  laugh.gif
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Hi Nexona,.. I hoped Unker is right. The challenge in investment is : anybody can be wrong, especially if we are in for the long term. smile.gif

Wait,... if you read the Unker's posts carefully, he never said Sgp will succeed. He said Bolehland will definitely fail. smile.gif Better clarify this before he hits with another posting for inaccuracy.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 21 2015, 02:09 PM
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 21 2015, 02:12 PM)
By creating a international zone thru reclaimed land along d Tebrau Straits stretching from Changi to Tua with 200k units ave rm5mil each based on d Sentosa Cove idea. That will bring in 1Tril. Would that change d situation?
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Should be one of the factors that make Sgp great. Still,..need to be careful. Look what happened to our Iskandar ?
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 02:36 PM)
sg and msia were once the same.

now they are opposite twins.

where one will fail, the other will succeed.

what one will not do, the other will.

so, pick yr choice. tongue.gif
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Twins,.... biggrin.gif rclxms.gif I'll still pick the southern twin, or not to pick at all.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 21 2015, 02:35 PM)
personally I think for the long term oil price will never approach 100 usd per barrel like last time.

reason is US has fracking. Saudi is pumping more supply to bankrupt the US fracking companies. below USD 30 fracking will not be profitable and those companies will go out of business. after 1 round of bankruptcies oil price will begin to rise again. but once oil has risen to a certain price (above usd 50) then fracking companies will re-emerge. they can always spin up their production because the tech already exists and is well-known (although production takes months at least to resume).
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YES, after the earlier debates on yes or no for Msia's future, this is the way to go.. So, the balancing act will be between the USD50 and USD60, and probably can never breach USD60 for the long term because US fracking producers will start adding to worldwide supplies when the price can stay above USD50/bbl.

At USD50/bbl, will our govern't be able to cope from Petronas' earnings, and how much will this be able to support the MYR ? We are aware oil price is not the only factor presiing down the MYR.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 21 2015, 02:55 PM)
Are you predicting oil price will stay in the $40+ range forever ?
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No, I think he meant to say that Petrnas' oilwells are drying-up, and our E&P activities are not able to unearth more productive wells.

For me, this is highly classified. All news out there are just speculative. Even if no E&P agent is able to discover any oil now, they might dig 100m away from that analysed node and discover oil deep down there.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Sep 21 2015, 02:53 PM)
Iskandar is not an International Zone with tax-free status so not as attractive, thats why somebody is toying with this idea.
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Iskandar has no 'direct tax-free' status, but they are offsetting that by giving freebies at the sides. They're also trying to rope-in as many international entities as possible into the area.

Somehow, what they've been doing is not working as fast as they claimed it should have been.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 21 2015, 03:10 PM)
diversify, spread yr risk u must!

do more... 20/80, 50/50 or 80/20? laugh.gif
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I never counted to such details of ratio diversification. If I ever take the trouble to count, I'll have a headache. I just go by instincts only, when I see 'new' money in my accts, I will put here, or put there, or buy this or buy that. But of course, DD has been done earlier.

If nothing can be bought, then I just leave the money in the acct..
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 21 2015, 03:05 PM)
Iskandar has no 'direct tax-free' status, but they are offsetting that by giving freebies at the sides. They're also trying to rope-in as many international entities as possible into the area.

Somehow, what they've been doing is not working as fast as they claimed it should have been.
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Wrongly replied !

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 21 2015, 03:19 PM
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 21 2015, 03:07 PM)
I fully agrees with this. But I think oil prices will always be below usd30/barrel to suppress shale oil.
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Beg to differ : the Saudis will not be able to finance their national development at this price/bbl. They will try to go as high as they can without letting the US shale oil operators in Texas come into the picture. That would be between USD50 to USD55, conservatively.

Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 21 2015, 03:21 PM)
When RM depreciated 30%, it just indirectly means extra 40% income as earning of oil is always in USD term.
Last time selling at USD50 can get RM150 (at Rm3.00 vs USD), now selling at USD, can get RM212.50 (at RM4.25)

When currency depreciation, inflation follow suit.
Inflation - price of goods rise.
Price of goods rise, more GST collection, as GST is counted in % towards the price.

But this is at the expense of inflation impact, and this is why a country needs to have their own currency instead of a common currency like Euro.
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So, mathematically, we can get more RM after we convert even though the USDs collected back is lesser compared to before. LIke you said , a depreciated currency causes inflation. I'm sure the GOvern't's budget need to be raised more than 40% too in order to achieve what they wanted to do because everything is more expensive now.

More GST collected, however, is this 'more' sufficient to cover the additional budget to be put in ? Not to mention it burdens us again.
Hansel
post Sep 21 2015, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(towar @ Sep 21 2015, 03:21 PM)
the federal gov really gave Singapore a slap in the face by imposing vehicle per-entry fee. singaporeans are the biggest investors/spenders in Johor.
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To me, for people earning the SGD, I think the per-entry fee into JB is negligible. But for people driving Msian-registered motor vehicles in the island, the VEP is 'visible'. Somemore, if you cross underneath any gantry during peak hours, you get hit by gantry toll charges too.

I treasured the 10 VEP-free Entry Days per year that they gave.
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 08:55 AM)
Trying to talk about something else to avoid giving yourself a time frame so nobody could prove you wrong ? That is the usual strategy of some feng shui master too  tongue.gif

1. I have enough of overseas investment to tie me over. I have a business which earn USD and RMB since many years ago. 2 of my kids are workiing in Australian and UK now I can go there any time. Don't assume everybody is not prepared. I just want something concrete from you so I can put your prediction in perspective. Your prediction so far is "intangible" to me. Layman word - "catch no ball"

2. It is not about luck. If you are so confident, you would know roughly when malaysia's economy will crash.

3. Afraid to read my reply ? Because I press you to a point you can't answer. That's why you try to ignore me. You can't even give a simple straight answer

4. You are just not confident enough to give a simple time frame prediction, fearing me to laugh at your mistake. In other words, you are afraid to make mistake

Anyway, the readers can read how chicken you are  tongue.gif 

Ok, I shall stop until you give me a timeframe of your prediction. Apologies to all other readers for OTing  notworthy.gif
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Showtime,..

You and Dreamer put up a very good debate. There was no-OTing,... All these matters are very related and hence, very relevant to the movements of the USD/MYR. Tq,... notworthy.gif

Some of my takes :-

1) There is no clear answer yet on when the country will crash, though there are multiple models being built by different people.

2) But, though saying the above, Dreamer is saying repeatedly now that it is TOO LATE NOW to save ourselves, implying that, perhaps, the country has already crashed and we are trapped ?


We are not trapped.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 22 2015, 10:08 AM
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 10:58 AM)
Ya I agree with you. Direction is there (that malaysia is heading for a tough time), but claiming the economy is doomed and will never recover is too extreme. That is too negative.

As a good investor, we should not write any possibilities off and bet everything in 1 go. The world is so fluid. Everything is possible. By "Sai Lang" on an extreme belief, these extreme investors are putting all their money in a 1 way traffic. If the direction changes, they could not take advantage of changing tides

I suspect unker dreamer has made a "Sai Lang" bet a few years ago. He wants to see his decision was right to prove to himself he is not wrong. Hence his extreme view. Just my guess  tongue.gif
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hmm.gif ... on the above sentence in bold. Theoretically,... a good theory.

As I have always said, all investors could have been wrong one way or another. And one would always be right if the timeline given for a prediction to materialise is infinite.

If a doomed scenario cannot be articulated in terms of 'when', that prediction is highly doubted. When applied to a country, then an infinite time for the country to be doomed equates to the end of the world. No action needs to be taken then for an event of oblivion.

I am still keen to hear Dreamer's opinion on why it is too late now to 'correct' ourselves.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Sep 22 2015, 11:58 AM
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 12:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 22 2015, 11:16 AM)
Unker dreamer is 0-100. Me is 50-50. Still haven't achieved yet. I have learnt the lesson of not diversifying fast enough. Should have done it 10 years ago  tongue.gif
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Your children are grown-up and are located overseas. I am hoping for that day too, but I have not achieved it.

If I am in your position,... frankly, I wouldn't think too much about money and diversifying anymore. But I still have to do this because I stlll have responsibilities to fulfill. There is still a long way to go.

There are no lessons to be learnt at your side. You have made it. You are safe,... if need be, you can always fly, or escape to where your children are located. YOu don't have to set aside funds for your eventual escape, if really this country crashes.

rclxms.gif
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 11:29 AM)
currently, us and sg equities incl reits are relatively low priced.

trouble is if u have to liquidate the ones in bursa to buy them, tough...
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smile.gif I think if you are holding good counters, just leave them be, no need to selloff. But if you are holding weaker instrumnts, then it is right to liquidate and wire the funds out.

I am glad I held FP ASX counters. I can now liquidate at the same Buy Price I had earlier and bring all of my dividends together with me ! For this, I thank this Govern't... in spite of the reduction in purchasing power of the MYR, and its weaker exchange rate.
Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Sep 22 2015, 01:42 PM)
this isn't always easy to decide, can be very emotional.

how to decide "good" and "weak"? biggrin.gif

say maybank... bluest of blue.
last 1 yr, rm9.50->rm8.50, -10.5%.

who would have sold it then and go buy say, apple inc?
aapl, 1 yr... $100->115; in rm terms, +45%.
as we speak, 4.2905.
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I think each has his own way to decide. For me, if I have other MY stocks besides Maybank, I would sellof those MY stocks first, Maybank is the last to let go. Wire out the funds, or if buying locally, then no need to wire out. However, if one wired out last year, one would have gained A LOT on the forex already.

I wouldn't buy AAPL. Dividnd is not 'disciplined' enough. I would buy US REITs or trusts that give-out dividends monthly or at least, quarterly. I wouldn't settle for any payouts less than quarterly in order to get my money faster.

AAPL has a great history of price app, no doubt, but it also has a history of below-average return of investor value when it comes to management of free cashflow. It's quite a personal thing here,... if a company is not able to manage her cashflow well and either hoards cash with 'preparing for rainy days' remarks or making acquisiionts at high premiums, I am staying away. I am still okay with buybacks when the prices are low enough, but not hoarding cash and not returning value to shareholders.

Hansel
post Sep 22 2015, 02:23 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Sep 22 2015, 01:37 PM)
Those who are trapped without alternative could only hope, wish and dream for the better no matter how unrealistic they are e.g kV property flipper, goldbug.
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Well,... not really,... the prop flippers can do a cutloss and selloff to get back whatever returns to go into foreign investments. The goldbug can hold-on to their gold investments and wait, or if they have everything in gold investments, then do a cutloss on half-position only..

LIke I said, it is not too late if the clamp has not been made to movement of funds.
Hansel
post Sep 23 2015, 02:44 PM

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The deeper the RM falls from 4.00, the harder to recover to stronger levels.
Hansel
post Sep 24 2015, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Sep 23 2015, 05:08 PM)
Those who hold SDG or SGD denominated investments, there might be a risk coming that MAS might do further monetary easing

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/s...ary-easing-risk
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I look at it as a chance to convert more MYR into the SGD, since I am taking a longterm bet that Msia will still lose out to Sgp. I hoped they eased, just like in January this yr if my memory serves me correctly.

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