hike or no hike, rm is not going anywhere...

but i sense u are now upbeat on the rm, yes?

me, i am not. i think it has some way to go down before it recovers.

maybe well into 2017.

a ceo that sets kpi's for himself and assess the performance himself and tell the rest to accept it.

i hv a slightly diff view.

i do not see the rm diving anymore but undergo slow decay in the next 2-3 years.

save themselves they will but not everybody! i don't see where the major improvement in the economy is going to come from. i can only see higher taxes, sale of land and more debt on top of continued plunder, wastage and financial/accounting games. same actors, same act, same results.



auntie... i hold the view that after so long, the first hike if it comes at all will be a non-event. hawkishness on subsequent hikes will rattle markets again but that is most unlikely.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 15 2015, 12:11 AM

looking at bursa and mgs, i doubt ff coming back significantly.

what will they be attracted to? 1mdb? bdr tr? condoms? o&g? plantations? condos?

will be sluggish, slow... bit up, bit down... until the next tsunami arrives, local or foreign.

think we can take a break and go back to our daily jobs now.

meanwhile, better use fx in hand productivity and not earn zero interest.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 16 2015, 06:16 PM

ya, mal funds are desperately needed to keep in at 4.40 thereabout!

mgs yield still rising, closed at high 4.35% today:
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

bnm...

oil price is low but last night fed minutes again raised doubt on rate hike.

there is no end to the ups and downs.

therefore, bad idea to buy fx and keep under mattress.

fx should be used to earn a return.

a bonus if there is fx gain.

we've been thru this many times...

no obvious easy rewarding choice.

diff people do diff things with their fx.

i do reits and equities trading.

what is "money market"... u mean FX trading?

i am looking forward to this happening.

u sure it's not a case of buy on the rumor, sell on the news?

so, now is the chance to buy usd to sell later?

ah, i see...

yes, i think some high worth individuals or cos. with excess funds do that.

4.20 is possible if all bijan deficits are eliminated.

4.0... will take a lot more, a lot longer, imo...


btw, brzail and south africa currenies have also gained against usd in last few days but not as much.

the big losers are euro - more qe coming. and yen, japan in recession...

my read is crude price has reached a level such that it now has a diminished effect on the rm.

in addition, possibly some have had enough, now buying rm after 20-25% fx gain within a year.

but... i will not write off fed's hike thingy yet.

until a tsunami arrives, 4.2-4.4... 5% range.

rm +1.2%
rupiah +0.96%
korea +0.6%
brazil +1.25%
colombia +0.95%

just a weaker usd.

that helped crude to stay above 40.

sorry, no magic for rm.

nice one!

ok, maybe some magic.

just hope not black magic.

really?

i thought it was clear there is no possibility for individual to short rm in such large amounts due to rm not traded offshore, tight bnm rules? only legit biz can only do credit swaps and hedge receivables with forward contracts?

this case was the lighlight, i remember - accusation for shorting 1.4bil turned out to be just political slander, we know.
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...ggit-says-najib

but... for small amounts, 10k, even a couple million, think there are legit ways. hundreds of millions, billions... think will need xmdb logo to do.

anyway, 4.1x->4.3x is good profit. i am quite sure some here enjoying 3.6->4.3 albeit tiny amounts.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 21 2015, 01:58 PM

fresh tipsy... long usd, i suppose...




This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 21 2015, 01:41 PM

last few days, think more people sold usd for rm profit seeing the temp usd weakness.

however, most reports i read point to usd strengthening again soon.

more so when draghi's talking more qe for euro.

and crude's showing fresh signs of going down further, next stop possibly 38.



rm to test 4.50? good chance in the next 3 months, i say.

4.25-4.35... reasonable and expected range for now.

get ready yr usd or rm whichever way u wanna go.

no need millions or billions. thousands accepted.

who knows?

it is simply outrageous for anyone to daringly predict a precise no. for a specific day or month!

rumors being rumors, can't use that to make decisions.

about the subject, i only keep a few things in mind:

.. usd/rm is for protection of one's blood and sweat savings, not to let irresponsible leaders and other crooks destroy it.
.. all that we read, see or hear in facts and data form as of today tell us rm cannot strengthen much from where it is now.
.. it is very normal for vested parties to say A is undervalued or B is overvalued, so best to read more, all the time. things can change quickly too.
.. it is not always true that "what goes down will go up"; it can be "what goes down stays down" or "what goes down can go down further".

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 21 2015, 03:46 PM

this is no rumor - hedge funds are shorting the mexican peso.

how will it affect the rm? note the mex peso has appr against the rm in the last year.