i think it's quite a good time now at 4.28-4.29.

of course, u can wait and see if it will get to 4.0 or 4.5.



seriously, for biz and investment purposes, one shouldn't base decision on fx movement. a 2-3% fx disadvantage or advantage will be drowned by a 8-10% return or loss from a venture. the investment project is far more critical.

fx movement opportunities are for full time currency traders and part time speculators.

only in the scenario where it is clear an interest rate hike or revaluation is imminent or massive fdi injection coming should one decide with fx in mind.

at this time, what is clear? best to base on facts, data and reliable analysis. not rumors or conspiracy theories.

same kind of reasons when it was going down.

not one reason but a basket of reasons.

just check the 1 yr charts for usd against some peers.

you see the same curve patterns but different % up or down over time

usd's peak against these 4 was mostly in aug-sep.

since their lowest values, they have all recovered:

brazil +11.8%
turkey +7.3%
indon +7%
mexico +4.5%
s korea +4.2%
malaysia +4.0%
south africa +2.2%

better than south africa... isn't that exciting?

why not? mexican peso was never as badly hit as the myr.

last 1 yr:

foreign vs myr:

s korea +18.4%
rupiah +11.7%
aud +6.5%
nzd +6%
mexico +5%
turkey 0%
south africa 0%
brazil -15.3%


s korean won has recovered the most. next time, i will omit s korea won as it has lost only 4% to the sgd and gained 12/15% vs aud/nzd.

aud and nzd also recovered quite well.

indon maids will surely cost more; few people realize rupiah gained over aud and nzd in the last 1, even 2 yrs.

brazil is still the worst - best time to go there to samba, i guess.

malaysia along with turkey and south africa - "among the worst".

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 22 2015, 06:01 PM

for a trip to rio, better stock up usd!

official inflation near 10%. probably same bs as here... so actual urban inflation....25% p.a?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi

i have looked at many time frames for several currencies.

if one looks hard enough, it is always possible to find a period it is very bad or very good.

so, i just look at the conveniently available - 2 yrs, 1 yr, 1 month, from peak...

impt thing is be aware is if there is a short period exceptionally good or bad and why.

so far,we can see BRAZIL going through a really shitty time - and we know why: big corruption at national oil co.

and i have seen AUD recovering quite well despite 2 rate cuts in the last year.

i will be watching MEXICO closely and see if its relative strength among EM's will be destroyed by hedge funds as reported by bloomberg.

RM... definitely worst in asia. "there is nothing positive". no rate hike, no massive exports incr, low cpo, no incr in fdi, same or incr spending in budget. and oil price stays very low after 1.5 yrs. will petronas report a loss in next qtr?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/20/oil-compani...t-defaults.html

if a currency can strengthen significantly w/o doing anything in such a scenario, we should stop going to school to learn economics, finance, maths and science.

It's all relative.

Already worst in Asia, among the worst in the world. That's bad enough.

There are other economies in worse shape like Venezuela, Ukraine, Nigeria. But these are not as similar as Msia is to Turkey and South Africa.

4.5, 5.0... That will be if we slip into recession next year and the politics much uglier.

Not an entirely impossible scenario.



Another thing interesting thing is the Thai baht. What reasons for it to be even stronger than the SGD?

usd strengthening again.

0.943 euro.

crude price falling again.

rm >4.30.


i want to buy a bit more usd.

it just won't stay <4.25 more than 1 day!

magic, illusion, fundamentals, welcome to help!

wait to buy or sell usd?

doesn't look like it.

mgs 10 yr last 2 weeks been 4.30->4.35->4.33->4.26%.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 23 2015, 03:20 PM

can one interprete that as a big chance for msia to issue big new bonds, incr debt big time?

ok, we wait and see if this indeed will affect the rm in the coming weeks and months.

now, 4.30 still.

very stable.

actually, i am appalled u and showtime are appalled.

why should the rm fall further against usd when indon, turkey, south africa, brazil currencies, aud, nzd strengthened too, even more than rm over the same recent period?

if rm falls further against usd when the peers are gaining, it means it has really gone to the dogs for good, no?

or you guys think it is, in fact, the case now?


added:



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 23 2015, 06:03 PM

hope so. i want to buy some.

some puji, some will curse la...

some will start dumping condom and glove counters?

exports will shrink?

tourism will go down?





a 5% recovery is fine, 10% better.

no.

on the contrary, i expect prices to rise further by jan 2016.

urban inflation is running high, biz people and traders need to raise margins to keep going.

just checked.

my bank, buying usd still 4.2215.

i wait for a buy at <4.20.

hope yr rumor will keep going!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 25 2015, 10:02 AM

normal bank rate for equities investment.

they are much the same for local banks on any day.

tt is different, always more expensive, larger spread.

commodities, oil, emerging markets currencies... good reads:

crude dropped 1.5% today after turkey downed russian warplane rally yesterday.

rm 4.22.

who says oil price not impt for rm?