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 USD/MYR drop, V2

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AVFAN
post Nov 5 2015, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 5 2015, 12:16 PM)
The price has been hovering around 4.20-4.30 for quite some time. Nothing exciting. Perhaps now is the time to trend upwards towards 4.40 or resistant remains and will settle around 4.28 level? whistling.gif
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yes, and i think it will stay there: 4.25-4.35. for now.

becos locally, nothing has changed - the politics, the threats, the plundering, the handouts, the budget deficit, the debt levels... all still there. there is nothing that will strengthen the rm. and if u read between the lines of what a couple of ministers are saying, u know gdp growth will slow, will be below expectations. consumer spending sentiment is poor:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/04/weak-ringgi...sen-survey.html

QUOTE(pfesto @ Nov 5 2015, 01:43 PM)
Could it be due to Yellen remark of 'live possibility' of rate hike in Dec,

Yellen comment
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yellen remarks plus volatile crude prices.

crude price swings of 3-6% everyday in the last few days does not help the rm.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 5 2015, 02:12 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 5 2015, 07:51 PM

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rm cannot get stronger, growth at risk.

QUOTE
Amid Growth Risks, Weak Ringgit

Government says Malaysia may miss trade targets this year
Currency is the worst performer in Asia vs dollar in 2015

Malaysia’s central bank left interest rates unchanged for an eighth meeting as policy makers juggle risks to economic growth while contending with a currency that’s the worst performer in Asia this year.
Bank Negara Malaysia kept the overnight policy rate at 3.25 percent, it said in a statement in Kuala Lumpur Thursday. The decision was predicted by all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Prime Minister Najib Razak is counting on domestic demand to shore up a cooling economy as global growth falters, pledging to boost consumption, spur private investment and accelerate selected infrastructure projects next year. While Malaysia’s biggest trading partners of China and Singapore have both eased monetary policy in recent weeks, it is constrained by a currency that has depreciated about 19 percent this year.
“Growth risk is a main concern now, although we’ve seen rising costs of late,” Julia Goh, a Kuala Lumpur-based economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd., said before the decision. "Our projection is for them to hold for at least into the first half of next year.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ks-weak-ringgit


AVFAN
post Nov 6 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 5 2015, 10:17 PM)
BNM kept OPR unchanged
Gud news for borrowers but bad news for MYR
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i just called a bank. buying usd is now at 4.317.


QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 5 2015, 11:26 PM)
If not because of myr depreciation, monetary easing would be on the card.
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that was pretty much expected.

commodity based economy, low commodity prices, high debt levels, highest profile scandals cum coverup = no room to move.

if the storm was less than perfect, can cut int rates, incr money supply to spur spending/growth.

now... can only watch growth slow while rm has little chance to recover significantly.
AVFAN
post Nov 6 2015, 09:01 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 6 2015, 07:46 PM)
Global funds raise Malaysian bond holdings as ringgit rallies
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...lies/?style=biz

Surprisingly foreign investors make a U turn
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they are very confident.

that gst can always will be raised to pay the interest; rakyat always pay w/o complaint. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 6 2015, 11:32 PM

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excellent usa jobs report.

incr chance of rate hike in dec.

rising us bond yields.

crude approaching 44.

usd/euro 0.932.

rm... not hard to estimate what it will be on monday...
AVFAN
post Nov 7 2015, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 7 2015, 06:51 AM)
Fasten yo seatbelt b4 MYR accelerate to 4.44  icon_idea.gif
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new major external factors have arrived.

we just need to see if new major local factors will emerge - primarily mgs yields and bijan chronicles.

if perfect storm... ya, 4.44, 4.50.


below is just a personal opinion from a blogger but i think it has some validity in it:

QUOTE
My comments : The banks are not getting enough deposits from their customers. This does not mean there is not enough liquidity in the system. It simply means people are putting their money elsewhere. So the banks will have to raise their deposit rates to attract deposits. Ultimately they will also raise their interest rates (to cover the higher deposit rates). My concern is that there is not enough new economic activity in the country to use up all that money. We will have plenty of Ringgits floating around chasing too few economically viable projects. This will lead to more inflation. Also the value of the Ringgit will fall again.
I am surprised about the banks now taking US$ deposits. This will cause more Malaysians to convert their Ringgit to US$ and place it in US$ deposiits. The Ringgit will fall even more
.


AVFAN
post Nov 8 2015, 05:53 PM

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politics cannot be detached from economics, esp here with bijanomics.

this is from a respected MP:
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...ederal-reserve/

interpret it anyway u wish!

AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE
Banks’ dollar borrowing adds layer of risk to Malaysia’s creeping crisis - See more at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...h.egEbyCvX.dpuf



4.370.
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE
The dollar remained aloft in Asian trade on Monday, after soaring to nearly seven-month highs against a basket of currencies as robust U.S. employment data prompted more investors to bet on an interest rate increase by year this year.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 271,000 last month, far exceeding the 180,000 new jobs for October economists polled by Reuters had predicted. Following the report, 15 of 17 primary dealers, the banks that deal with the U.S. Federal Reserve directly, said they expect it to raise rates at its next meeting in December, according to a Reuters poll.

Interest rates futures were pricing in a 70 percent probability that the U.S. central bank will raise borrowing costs next month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/08/dollar-soli...y-year-end.html

AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 9 2015, 05:02 PM)
Think 4.40 not a problem. Problem is whether target 4.50 can be reached by the end of Nov?  whistling.gif
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frankly, it's anyone's guess now.

QUOTE
The USDMYR traded at 4.38 MYR on Monday November 9, according to interbank foreign exchange market quotes. The Malaysian Dollar averaged 2.91 from 1972 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 4.71 in January of 1998 and a record low of 2.10 in October of 1978.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/currency


how we wish it is 1978. chapfan 80 sen, nasi lemak with chicken rm1.00, bakuteh rm3, big steak rm8. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 9 2015, 05:41 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 9 2015, 05:57 PM)
u that old?  ohmy.gif  shocking.gif

unker avfan  blush.gif
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hehe... maybe i was earning rm5k then... maybe i was a kid then... maybe my dad told me... maybe i read that somewhere else. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 9 2015, 09:43 PM)
blink.gif  hmm.gif

so basically unker  tongue.gif

how I wish to live tat time.. cost of living cheap. no rasict crap.

MYR rate also kinda okay  blush.gif
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no need to go so far back.

take mid 80's.

fresh grad get paid 1.5k, now... 2k?
double storey freehold house in pj 200k, now 1.2 mil.

total failure when it comes to purchasing power for wage earners.
of course, u know where all the money went.

QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 9 2015, 10:00 PM)
I am more unker than you  tongue.gif
Live rate now 4.3995
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80% chance about the same. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 9 2015, 10:59 PM
AVFAN
post Nov 9 2015, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 9 2015, 10:04 PM)
Another 5 pips b4 4.40  icon_idea.gif
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crude 43.90.

4.50. is now within reach.

AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 11:58 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2015, 10:21 AM)
USD did not rise as much as anticipated despite the higher probability of rates increase in December. Maybe Aunty has cried wolf too many times until market is skeptical about her decisiveness ?
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QUOTE
Traders see a 70 percent chance that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate from near zero at its next meeting, up from a 56 percent probability before Friday’s release of stronger-than-forecast U.S. labor data. The calculation assumes the effective fed funds rate averages 0.375 percent after the first hike.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...ase-in-december


crude has gone further down to 43.70. iea sees low price till 2020:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/10/oil-price-t...y-2020-iea.html

with crude not recovering anytime soon, deflation risks will roil fed's plan to hike in dec.

so, we may have a case of low oil price but no rate hike for months to come.

where will rm go then? still down, i suppose. 4.3-4.4? tongue.gif

AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 03:38 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2015, 01:01 PM)
If I don't put in my signature, everyone forget already  tongue.gif

I think unker will lose. Because unty will not increase rates. ASx people is not dumb after all. In fact if RM stay below 4.40, it was a good decision not to convert to USD at that time
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let's try this:

TODAY.

if u have rm50k, will u buy usd (zero int) at 4.38?

or put in asx or fd or bursa or something else but local?
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 11 2015, 03:56 PM)
I'm doing the opposite. Today i just transferred usd10k back to malaysia. Probably after conversion i will get RM43600 only. Going to dump into asw/asm soon. Maybe i am dummy.  sweat.gif

..
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you will not have answer until a year pass. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Nov 11 2015, 12:34 PM)
Unker Dreamer TP of 4.70 year end would be achieved or not  brows.gif
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never say never...

all it takes is a fed rate hike in dec followed by crude price return to previous low of 35.

bijanomics already declared "dun blame me, blame external".

will low reserves, high debt, budget deficit, slow gdp... rm is pretty much a sitting duck, at the mercy of external, our gomen, bnm basically will/can do nothing about it.

unlike thai baht or sgd.
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 08:06 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2015, 06:58 PM)
Neither. I will convert to SGD and transfer to Singapore and put in SGX when those bank stock/telco/reits fall further  tongue.gif
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hohoho...

singtel one of them, is it?

been waiting for 3.5x until my neck got stiff. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 08:11 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Nov 11 2015, 07:55 PM)
All these using RM50k ?  shocking.gif
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biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Nov 11 2015, 08:48 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Nov 11 2015, 08:42 PM)
Y wait when u can grab the seller price  tongue.gif
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no la, cannot like dat...

sgx is subject to a lot more foreign funds, not like bursa all local play-play syndicates. tongue.gif

sgx and us equities, gotta be extra careful and be very mindful of all kinds of forces by the minute, alto much more transparent and not subject to datuks and tan sris wet dreams. laugh.gif

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