good enuf for today

do what u need to do at those rates!

because i don't think it's over or will keep going in one direction.

it will yo-yo again and again given all the uncertainty we have, primarily oil price and bijan chronicles.

One word, wonderful

what now?

USD2 bil drop is a substantial sum
Need to study wat is embedded inside 'adjustment'

30/9/2015 4.3955
1/10/2015 4.4005
2/10/2015 4.4140
5/10/2015 4.3808
6/10/2015 4.3745
7/10/2015 4.2200

USD/MYR have appreciated close to 4% now from 30/9

come on MYR, dont let me down tomorrow.



Have a lovely evening guys

Herd mentality may drive appreciation of MYR...

meaning "usd reserves" are not in usd but in rm->usd at old exchange rate.

e.g. if i bought 1kusd at 3.5 but rate went to 4.0 at end of qtr, my "usd reserves" is still reported at 1kusd in the meantime but becomes usd875 at the end of the qtr.



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 7 2015, 08:59 PM

Dun understand
Did they make a mistake or inadvertently overlook?

opps... i think i got it wrong...

i think it means the "reserves" are actually in rm. so when the rate goes unfavorable, the rm becomes less in usd.

but this is strange... if i buy 1kusd at 3.5, my reserves is 1kusd and when rate goes to 4., i still hv 1kusd and gets bloated to 4k rm, right?

we are missing something here...

"fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes?

AVFAN,

<<"fx reserves" are in rm and subject to rate changes?>>

Come on.. Just count the FX reserve in USD and you will not be confused. People are playing game with the number aka quoting in RM to confuse people.

It is VERY SIMPLE

The FX reserve is down USD $2 billions.

Dreamer

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/busine...pp/2172728.html

Folks,

My gut feeling tell me that USD will stay weak while awaiting TPPA to be approved by Asian countries. So, let's see whether this comes true...

Enjoy the show!!

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: Oct 7 2015, 09:56 PM

My view:-
1. 5 mths import pymt : Now can finance 8.6 mths -v- 7.3 mths. Tis means lower import in 2nd half Sep 15?
2. Short term external debt : Now 1.2x -v- 1.1x. Tis means repymt of debt took place in 2nd half Sep 15?

The US$ reserve is the base point.

The reserve has decreased from US$94.7b in Aug to US$93.3b in Sept (down US$1.4b)

BNM has been using forex rate of around 3.77xx previously --> 94.7 x 3.777 = RM357.7b

Now BNM revised the forex rate to 4.449 --> 93.3 x 4.449 = RM415.1b

So, in effect, our reserve decreased by US$1.4b

There is a download of all the months' reserve in this link since year 2010 . Go to "International Reserves" line somewhere in 3/4 page and click the "download"

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=statistic_nsdp&uc=2

You don't measure foreign currency reserves in RM, as it is primary USD denominated.

Those USD reserves is essential for any money outflow and repayment of foreign debt that is in USD denominated.

Yes, if RM depreciated, means less USD needed for every RM outflow.

Eg.
If there is RM 4.4 billion money want to flow out, at exchange rate 4.40, BNM only needs to fork out USD 1 bil.

While if exchange rate is at 4, if there is RM4.4 bil want to exchange to USD, BNM needs to fork out USD 1.1 bil.

If the foreign currency reserves drop USD 2 bil, means there is equivalent USD 2 bil of RM are exchanged with BNM that, which could be outflow already or stay in foreign currency account in domestic bank.

So if rate was Rm4.40 means RM8.8 bil was being changed to USD in this period of time.

That's why analysts or BNM published how much foreign currency reserves in USD.
Because if you have 100 bil USD, it will stay forever as 100 bil USD, as this is what you have.

Just like if you have Sgd 100 in hand, you know you have Sgd 100, not RM310 last week or Rm297 today.

1. Import figure starts to shrink recently.

2. Yes, some debt may be due and already being paid off.
A lower reserves figure, but have higher coverage from 1.1x to 1.2x, means short term debt figure become less.

ok, ok...

forget the rm.

usd reserves is down 1.4b, that's it.

must be...

so expensive... all importers pulled brakes!

hope no shortage of any goods...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Oct 7 2015, 09:47 PM

so the conclusion is our reserve has decreased USD 1.4b!

nothing else matters