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 USA Stock Discussion v7, Greece Debt Crisis!

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TSbennike129
post Jul 14 2015, 10:16 PM, updated 10y ago

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USA Stock Discussion v6

New thread rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by bennike129: Jul 14 2015, 10:17 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 14 2015, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(bennike129 @ Jul 14 2015, 10:16 PM)
USA Stock Discussion v6

New thread  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
*
nice!


oil/energy stocks rally!!
netmask8
post Jul 14 2015, 11:35 PM

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LVS, BAC, MPEL, BZH, C, ETFC, AA, AAPL, KO, RF, NBG? So many .. What to pick? Long Term Investor or Short Term Trader?
mikehwy
post Jul 15 2015, 01:30 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 14 2015, 10:30 PM)
nice!
oil/energy stocks rally!!
*
oil rallying from 50+ because of iran deal. it was reported that iran's oil export will take time and some hiccup from oil producing nations. congrats to those who long it after the deal!!! Bravo! rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Jul 15 2015, 01:31 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 15 2015, 01:39 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 15 2015, 01:30 AM)
oil rallying from 50+ because of iran deal. it was reported that iran's oil export will take time and some hiccup from oil producing nations. congrats to those who long it after the deal!!! Bravo!  rclxms.gif
*
very volatile man...!

now going short. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jul 15 2015, 04:33 AM

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tomorrow should be interesting.... biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 15 2015, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 15 2015, 01:39 AM)
very volatile man...!

now going short. sweat.gif
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Don't short lah!... I think it's going to hold here at $50.
Maybe we got a range play $50 to $60 until end of the year.


AVFAN
post Jul 15 2015, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 15 2015, 11:18 AM)
Don't short lah!... I think it's going to hold here at $50.
Maybe we got a range play $50 to $60 until end of the year.
*
i trade crude etf longs n shorts very short term, 1-2 days, sometimes intraday.
51-52, 52-53, i.e. 2% range can offer plenty of plays! biggrin.gif
but already said, i play with coins only. laugh.gif

such plays i do is also to "insure" against the xle and oih i hv when i smell an avalanche.
for same reason, it also means i tend to short crude more than long for quick coin plays. wink.gif

the oil bulls and bears been fighting all night at 53.10
we'll see which one gives way tonite - china, iran, greece, fed factors again and again.
my bet is on the bears. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 01:32 AM

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no show? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 02:10 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 01:32 AM)
no show?  biggrin.gif
*
already watched 2 tv shows! biggrin.gif

aapl's back to almost 127, so if u got it close to 120, very good!

oil is down, looks like going to 51, so i was "right". tongue.gif

time to sleep, bonne nuit.
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 02:53 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 02:10 AM)
already watched 2 tv shows! biggrin.gif

aapl's back to almost 127, so if u got it close to 120, very good!

oil is down, looks like going to 51, so i was "right". tongue.gif

time to sleep, bonne nuit.
*
never bought enough on this fruit. laugh.gif
Wish it could come down to below 120 again. It's been testing at around 120 many times since beginning of the year. shocking.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 02:53 AM)
never bought enough on this fruit.  laugh.gif
Wish it could come down to below 120 again. It's been testing at around 120 many times since beginning of the year.  shocking.gif
*
i did top up at about 122, not too bad.

but the way the price been behaving lately, i'm no longer that bullish about it.

seriously, i suggest a look at xlv - this healthcare etf is on track for continuing multi-yr stellar performance:
http://etfdb.com/etf/XLV/#performance
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 11:41 AM)
i did top up at about 122, not too bad.

but the way the price been behaving lately, i'm no longer that bullish about it.

seriously, i suggest a look at xlv - this healthcare etf is on track for continuing multi-yr stellar performance:
http://etfdb.com/etf/XLV/#performance
*
appl still on sideline for almost a year now, so it could breakout either way, 50:50. But since i bullish on it long term, my wish is it could breakout downwards....best go back 110. drool.gif

i'm not familiar with healthcare sector, so not dare to play. laugh.gif
quite interested on finance sector though....but i guess i'd missed the train (for 2 years), chase high is worrying. wink.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 16 2015, 03:58 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 03:57 PM)
appl still on sideline for almost a year now, so it could breakout either way, 50:50. But since i bullish on it long term, my wish is it could breakout downwards....best go back 110.  drool.gif

i'm not familiar with healthcare sector, so not dare to play.  laugh.gif
quite interested on finance sector though....but i guess i'd missed the train (for 2 years), chase high is worrying.  wink.gif
*
if appl goes below 115 in absence of a severe market crash, no point keeping - i will dump them all to realize just the fx gain.

that health etf is not for play but for "retirement" - it's my best performer for last 12 months.
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 04:07 PM)
if appl goes below 115 in absence of a severe market crash, no point keeping - i will dump them all to realize just the fx gain.

that health etf is not for play but for "retirement" - it's my best performer for last 12 months.
*
great that you found your "retirement fund". thumbup.gif

well, the fruit is one of my retirement fund, expecting a 10x gain hopefully before i died. Agree with you, if it fell below even just 118, i guess that could trigger panic sell on TA concern. That's where i prepare my elephant gun at low 110s. laugh.gif

and also accumulating china stocks through hk market while many panic and jumping around in fear. these are my retirement fund as well. icon_rolleyes.gif

sadly, it's extremely hard to find a retirement fund on bursa. I see Panamy as one, but growth is limited since its dependency on local market is too high and growth in malaysia is limited (unlike china).

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 16 2015, 04:27 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 04:19 PM)
great that you found your "retirement fund".  thumbup.gif
well, the fruit is one of my retirement fund, expecting a 10x gain hopefully before i died.  laugh.gif
and also accumulating china stocks through hk market while many panic and jumping around in fear. these are my retirement fund as well.  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
i will check with you on china/hk when the time comes.

i need to build up a bit more on my "retirement" funds. biggrin.gif



btw... there is no china/hk stocks thread, is there? haven't noticed any...
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 04:23 PM)
i will check with you on china/hk when the time comes.

i need to build up a bit more on my "retirement" funds. biggrin.gif
btw... there is no china/hk stocks thread, is there? haven't noticed any...
*
now the most hateful thing is weak RM! buy now, we are losing instantly a 6-8% (if, a big if, RM could rebound that range in future... sweat.gif ).
thanks to our country's famous corruptions! vmad.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 04:31 PM)
now the most hateful thing is weak RM! buy now, we are losing instantly a 6-8% (if, a big if, RM could rebound that range in future... sweat.gif ).
thanks to our country's famous corruptions!  vmad.gif
*
i think otherwise - now is a good time to buy any fx with rm! tongue.gif

why i think that:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956/+920
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 16 2015, 05:11 PM

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Yeah NFLX is up 12 percent in pre market trading. Anyway with the Greece drama over for now looks like we will see a good evening.

Here are the pre market indicators (as of this post):
Dow - 18,053.00 +61.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4553.30 +18.80
S&P 500 - 2112.00 +7.75
Russell 2000 - 1267.70 +4.20
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 16 2015, 05:11 PM)
Yeah NFLX is up 12 percent in pre market trading. Anyway with the Greece drama over for now looks like we will see a good evening.

Here are the pre market indicators (as of this post):
Dow - 18,053.00 +61.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4553.30 +18.80
S&P 500 - 2112.00 +7.75
Russell 2000 - 1267.70 +4.20
*
U got Netflix? Never checked... Is it in s&p or Nasdaq?

Yes, tonite should be.... Bull. tongue.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 16 2015, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 06:45 PM)
U got Netflix? Never checked... Is it in s&p or Nasdaq?

Yes, tonite should be.... Bull. tongue.gif
*
De factoly owned tongue.gif Being straddling the options for quite a while now. It is in both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Jul 16 2015, 06:59 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 16 2015, 06:58 PM)
De factoly owned tongue.gif Being straddling the options for quite a while now. It is in both the S&P and the Nasdaq 100.  thumbup.gif
*
alright, gud for you!

but do you hv netflix at home?

i had a free short period, wasn't impressed due to non-hd which is due to geo-restrictions, i know.

but i see there is a great future in reasonably price iptv service.

here, they gotta ask the bigshots in tm and astro for permission. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 07:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 07:29 PM)
alright, gud for you!

but do you hv netflix at home?

i had a free short period, wasn't impressed due to non-hd which is due to geo-restrictions, i know.

but i see there is a great future in reasonably price iptv service.

here, they gotta ask the bigshots in tm and astro for permission. tongue.gif
*
huge competitor: the fruit. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 07:35 PM)
huge competitor: the fruit.  tongue.gif
*
that's what i read... the fruit is cooking something. when...?
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 16 2015, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 07:29 PM)
alright, gud for you!

but do you hv netflix at home?

i had a free short period, wasn't impressed due to non-hd which is due to geo-restrictions, i know.

but i see there is a great future in reasonably price iptv service.

here, they gotta ask the bigshots in tm and astro for permission. tongue.gif
*
Nope, no Netfix for me. Yeah Netfix is one of the big hot shots for investments with its streaming services and definitely fits the criteria that should be on my radar.

yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 08:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 16 2015, 07:52 PM)
that's what i read... the fruit is cooking something. when...?
*
remains mystery until unfold...the fruit style. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 09:41 PM

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bull, nice!


crude has a major battle going on 51.70 for the last few hours.

bull and bears... doesn't look like a clear winner will emerge soon.

my bet... still on bears. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 10:21 PM

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well... the way see it, the crude bears just won this round, down to 51.20.

took my profit, now about to go long... tongue.gif

wish bro j is here... sad.gif
yok70
post Jul 16 2015, 11:58 PM

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2135 coming? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 17 2015, 12:34 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 11:58 PM)
2135 coming?  tongue.gif
*
so fast meh?

took a lot of sweat to return to 2120!

anyway, happy to see spy >212 again, aapl >128.

been a while...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 17 2015, 12:35 AM
yok70
post Jul 17 2015, 03:37 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2015, 12:34 AM)
so fast meh?

took a lot of sweat to return to 2120!

anyway, happy to see spy >212 again, aapl >128.

been a while...
*
sigh! no more cheap fruit...for a while. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 17 2015, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 17 2015, 03:37 AM)
sigh! no more cheap fruit...for a while.  tongue.gif
*
the fruit will continue to do what it has been doing - hang around 128-130, then dip to 125 over 3 months, then repeat... peace and quiet...? tongue.gif


this looks enticing:
QUOTE
China H-Share Analysts See 20% Gain on Valuations Rarely So Low
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...s-rarely-so-low


about hkd portal in itrade... is there an equivalent to FXI?
FXI China H shares holdings:
http://etfdb.com/etf/FXI/#holdings
yok70
post Jul 17 2015, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 17 2015, 11:49 AM)
the fruit will continue to do what it has been doing - hang around 128-130, then dip to 125 over 3 months, then repeat... peace and quiet...? tongue.gif
this looks enticing:
about hkd portal in itrade... is there an equivalent to FXI?
FXI China H shares holdings:
http://etfdb.com/etf/FXI/#holdings
*
i worried fruit may breakout 132.50 this time since too many bullish news lately (Greece, china, US quarter reports, even Iran).....however, fed's rate hike fear may strike back when we close to sept.... biggrin.gif

cimbc50 is a H share index fund in bursa without dividend.
if play 2828 listed in hk, that one got about 3% yield in history, and the swing is much bigger than cimbc50 (i was wondering why).

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 17 2015, 01:29 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 17 2015, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 17 2015, 01:26 PM)
cimbc50 is a H share index fund in bursa without dividend.
if play 2828 listed in hk, that one got about 3% yield in history, and the swing is much bigger than cimbc50 (i was wondering why).
*
itrade bursa cimbc50 is very low volume... can't do. is that the only H shares fund?

itrade hong kong equities or hkd... 02828... ah yes, will check out this one, tq.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 17 2015, 02:02 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 17 2015, 10:07 PM

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not much action tonite except crude.

oil/energy stocks taking a beating...

crude looks like wanting to crash below 50 soon.

been one hell of a ride... short, long, short non-stop! sweat.gif

still ok for now... laugh.gif

yok70
post Jul 18 2015, 12:52 AM

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wow! google!!
AVFAN
post Jul 18 2015, 02:11 AM

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don't have google but have qqq which has like 3.5% google.

so, good too. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jul 18 2015, 02:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2015, 02:11 AM)
don't have google but have qqq which has like 3.5% google.

so, good too. laugh.gif
*
very nice! thumbup.gif
i don't have google either, just watching show. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 18 2015, 10:45 AM

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The Fruit has been good.... 120 last week.. now 129. Nice!!!! thumbup.gif
Still hanging on here!
wodenus
post Jul 18 2015, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 18 2015, 10:45 AM)
The Fruit has been good.... 120 last week.. now 129. Nice!!!!  thumbup.gif
Still hanging on here!
*
It was 133 in March smile.gif

AVFAN
post Jul 18 2015, 11:28 AM

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earnings season, mostly good. plus low vix.
think most sectors will bull for next 3 months.
s&p, tech, healthcare, biotech all returned or about to return to last highs.
so, very nice! biggrin.gif

the only drag and a big one is oil/energy.
coming earnings reports should mostly be ugly.
rate hike reaffirmed for sep/oct; usd is now gaining again, >0.92 euro.
a lot more pain for the sector if crude breaks 50.00 support.
will have to watch this sector very closely.





danmooncake
post Jul 19 2015, 01:36 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Jul 18 2015, 11:27 AM)
It was 133 in March smile.gif
*
Be patient.. it will get there. Now, it just need a catalyst (like earnings next week).
If it is good... it may even propel it higher than 133... perhaps 140'ish.

The funds wanted another GOOG like tech stock to move QQQ even higher.
danmooncake
post Jul 19 2015, 01:37 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 18 2015, 11:28 AM)
the only drag and a big one is oil/energy.
*
Agree... energy and materials been lagging. Same goes for Gold and Silver. nod.gif



yok70
post Jul 19 2015, 05:16 AM

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now nobody likes precious metals and oil, i bet for at least until end of 2015. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 19 2015, 07:14 AM

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errr....2141 coming? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 19 2015, 05:28 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 19 2015, 07:14 AM)
errr....2141 coming?  tongue.gif
*
that will mean spy at 214 which will imply 3.3% gain since jan.

3.3% for 8-9 months...ok, i guess. laugh.gif


Hansel
post Jul 19 2015, 06:00 PM

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AVFAN
post Jul 19 2015, 06:04 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 19 2015, 06:00 PM)
-marked-
*
don't "mark" la...

come join us, tell us what u hv as "retirement" funds.

i am just starting, like to hear from u. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 12:08 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 19 2015, 01:37 AM)
Agree... energy and materials been lagging.  Same goes for Gold and Silver.  nod.gif
*
u said it! biggrin.gif

Gold hits 5-year low as bets mount on Fed hike

can expect crude to follow suit...

Bonescythe
post Jul 20 2015, 12:40 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 19 2015, 01:37 AM)
Agree... energy and materials been lagging.  Same goes for Gold and Silver.  nod.gif
*
market might need to show signs of crashing down and no confidence in currency and when the big hot money to place their $$$ in the metal, that will be gold and silver timing...

my 1 cent

Hansel
post Jul 20 2015, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 19 2015, 07:04 PM)
don't "mark" la...

come join us, tell us what u hv as "retirement" funds.

i am just starting, like to hear from u. biggrin.gif
*
Alright,... I am more into trusts and REITs wgich provide income. Currentluy in energy, finance, healthcare and consumer goods sectors. All doing well in terms of cap gain(good margin-of-safety) except for the energy trust. The energy trust suffered pricing-wise, but still giving out an acceptable yield, ie still giving out DPU.. am thnking hard of averaging down further, but still cant decide on the entry price yet.

Guys,... when the Iran sanctions are lifted, there will be more supply of crude into the world mkts. MOre supply,... can go below USD50 per bbl ? sad.gif

This post has been edited by Hansel: Jul 20 2015, 04:52 PM
Hansel
post Jul 20 2015, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jul 20 2015, 01:40 PM)
market might need to show signs of crashing down and no confidence in currency and when the big hot money to place their $$$ in the metal, that will be gold and silver timing...

my 1 cent
*
Wont be easy - historically, gold price always has an Inverse Co-relation with USD strength. The FOMC is SURE to hike interst rates soon, which is sure to strengthen the USD - can't avoid this. And hence, if history is to repeat itself, then the final effect will be gold price is sure to drop. UNTIL.... the FOMC says they intend to stop hking interest rates. rolleyes.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 20 2015, 04:47 PM)
Alright,... I am more into trusts and REITs wgich provide income. Currentluy in energy, finance, healthcare and consumer goods sectors. All doing well in terms of cap gain(good margin-of-safety) except for the energy trust. The energy trust suffered pricing-wise, but still giving out an acceptable yield, ie still giving out DPU.. am thnking hard of averaging down further, but still cant decide on the entry price yet.

Guys,... when the Iran sanctions are lifted, there will be more supply of crude into the world mkts. MOre supply,... can go below USD50 per bbl ?  sad.gif
*
thanks for sharing... can u name a couple of reits for me to check on?
also, div tax of 30% does not bother you?

crude <50? it might get there this week! tongue.gif
davidcch07
post Jul 20 2015, 07:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 20 2015, 07:27 PM)
thanks for sharing... can u name a couple of reits for me to check on?
also, div tax of 30% does not bother you?

crude <50? it might get there this week! tongue.gif
*
Found some of the US REITs that come with 10%+ div.... i also concern about the tax of 30% (non us citizen).... maybe buy in huge batch and hold for long term.... ? Please advice on this Sifu notworthy.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 20 2015, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 20 2015, 04:57 PM)
Wont be easy - historically, gold price always has an Inverse Co-relation with USD strength. The FOMC is SURE to hike interst rates soon, which is sure to strengthen the USD - can't avoid this. And hence, if history is to repeat itself, then the final effect will be gold price is sure to drop. UNTIL.... the FOMC says they intend to stop hking interest rates.  rolleyes.gif
*
Aunty Yellen been talking about "possible" rate hike since late last year.. and all she says is data dependent.
Market been anticipating this move, and dollar been moving up and up.. and now back to parity as
if it already happened. shakehead.gif

So, what exactly is the rate hike? It turns out to be 25bps. Then, they'll pause for another 6-12 months. doh.gif

I think what's going to happen is when the actual rate is raised, Dollar will drop, commodities like gold, oil, copper will reverse course. tongue.gif



ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 20 2015, 07:26 PM

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Another day, another green thumbup.gif

Pre-Market Indicator
Dow - 18019.00 +22.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4658.50 +8.50
S&P 500 - 2120.75 +2.00

Looks like Morgan Stanley just top their estimates and with Apple reporting tomorrow and the recent case with Google and Netflix topping the charts, looks like the earnings report is just the beginning.

By the way, any suggestion if the SPY is a perfect indicator for how the market will react at the open?

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Jul 20 2015, 07:26 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 08:00 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 20 2015, 07:16 PM)
I think what's going to happen is when the actual rate is raised, Dollar will drop, commodities like gold, oil, copper will reverse course.  tongue.gif
*
nod.gif

that's precisely what i think will happen - "overshoot" or "buy on the rumur, sell on the fact" syndrome.

be prepared to take profits when it comes. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 20 2015, 07:26 PM)
Looks like Morgan Stanley just top their estimates and with Apple reporting tomorrow and the recent case with Google and Netflix topping the charts, looks like the earnings report is just the beginning.

By the way, any suggestion if the SPY is a perfect indicator for how the market will react at the open?
*
i hv watached aapl for the last 2 qtrs earnings reporting euphoria. one was boom-boom the other was zzz... laugh.gif

SPY is s&p500/10 in usd. dunno what else!
yok70
post Jul 20 2015, 08:45 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 20 2015, 08:00 PM)
nod.gif

that's precisely what i think will happen - "overshoot" or "buy on the rumur, sell on the fact" syndrome.

be prepared to take profits when it comes. biggrin.gif
oh if you plan to take profit on rate hike syndrome, you should start selling now since the drop could be fast as the rally been fast. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 20 2015, 08:45 PM)
oh if you plan to take profit on rate hike syndrome, you should start selling now since the drop could be fast as the rally been fast.  biggrin.gif
*
oh no, not now.

i watch every move yellen makes. laugh.gif

actually... can watch many things for signs... gold, crude, euro, heck, even rm! tongue.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 20 2015, 09:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 20 2015, 08:00 PM)
SPY is s&p500/10 in usd. dunno what else!
*
Because there was this one time that I always suggest to follow SPY as the opening indicator than futures and one of the mentioned it is unreliable but I find it the most accurate indicator of all. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Jul 20 2015, 09:07 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 20 2015, 09:06 PM)
Because there was this one time that I always suggest to follow SPY as the opening indicator than futures and one of the mentioned it is unreliable but I find it the most accurate indicator of all. sweat.gif
*
i am more use to djia but think same - just indices... one heavyweights, one broader market. not detached from each other.



tonite, aapl big winner. thumbup.gif

big loser - oil/energy, as expected. think more pain coming...
Hansel
post Jul 20 2015, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Jul 20 2015, 08:15 PM)
Found some of the US REITs that come with 10%+ div.... i also concern about the tax of 30% (non us citizen).... maybe buy in huge batch and hold for long term.... ? Please advice on this Sifu  notworthy.gif
*
If a ctr has 10% yield, after a 30% tax, still get to earn 7%, better than local Msian FD, right ? And coupld with the appreciation of the USD against the RM, mor advantage there. rclxms.gif

Ths can be an instrumnt under : buy foreign assets, and not hold foreign cash.
Hansel
post Jul 21 2015, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 20 2015, 08:16 PM)
Aunty Yellen been talking about "possible" rate hike since late last year.. and all she says is data dependent.
Market been anticipating this move, and dollar been moving up and up.. and now back to parity as
if it already happened.  shakehead.gif

So, what exactly is the rate hike?    It turns out to be 25bps. Then, they'll pause for another 6-12 months.  doh.gif

I think what's going to happen is when the actual rate is raised, Dollar will drop, commodities like gold, oil, copper will reverse course.  tongue.gif
*
Too much 'noise' from our auntie. Jus prepare for the hike. Too many guessing games,... creating too much headache and anxiety. The hike wil come, sooner or later. After the actual event, if the USD strengthens further, that's expectd. If it's 'the buy on rumour, sell on event' thing takes place, I'll stil hold-on to my USD-based assets. The USD will turn around again - because of,... FUNDAMENTALS. No problem for me - I'm a long-term holder. I'll just focus on accumulatng more bullets to make (accumulate) more acquisitions.
AVFAN
post Jul 21 2015, 02:33 AM

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aapl surprisingly fiery, looks like wanting to set new high.

and crude struggles to stay above 50...

yok70
post Jul 21 2015, 04:43 AM

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ibm beats on profit, shorts on revenue. margin improves. cloud revenue up 70%.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 21 2015, 04:47 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 21 2015, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 21 2015, 02:33 AM)
aapl surprisingly fiery, looks like wanting to set new high.

and crude struggles to stay above 50...
*
I'm still holding the new batch (aapl)... just wish I went all in last week.. but heck, can't be greedy right. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 21 2015, 10:04 AM
davidcch07
post Jul 21 2015, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 21 2015, 12:50 AM)
If a ctr has 10% yield, after a 30% tax, still get to earn 7%, better than local Msian FD, right ? And coupld with the appreciation of the USD against the RM, mor advantage there.  rclxms.gif

Ths can be an instrumnt under : buy foreign assets, and not hold foreign cash.
*
thanks...
AVFAN
post Jul 21 2015, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Jul 20 2015, 07:15 PM)
Found some of the US REITs that come with 10%+ div.... i also concern about the tax of 30% (non us citizen).... maybe buy in huge batch and hold for long term.... ? Please advice on this Sifu  notworthy.gif
*
i hv no exp with us reits, know nothing! biggrin.gif
will stick to sg reits/div stocks which hv been excellent so far.

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 21 2015, 09:57 AM)
I'm still holding the new batch (aapl)... just wish I went all in last week.. but heck, can't be greedy right.  tongue.gif
*
can never get it all.
i'm quite happy to have added at 122. wink.gif

still holding xle? i dumped all oil/energy last week.
took losses but compensated partly by earnings from a series of crude shorts.
think crude will go lower still.
yok70
post Jul 21 2015, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 21 2015, 09:57 AM)
I'm still holding the new batch (aapl)... just wish I went all in last week.. but heck, can't be greedy right.  tongue.gif
*
me too....regret bought too little.... laugh.gif
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post Jul 21 2015, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 21 2015, 11:24 AM)
i hv no exp with us reits, know nothing! biggrin.gif
will stick to sg reits/div stocks which hv been excellent so far.
can never get it all.
i'm quite happy to have added at 122. wink.gif

still holding xle? i dumped all oil/energy last week.
took losses but compensated partly by earnings from a series of crude shorts.
think crude will go lower still.
*
Fortunaltely, I bought the yielding energy ctr. I'll ride it out while continuing to collect my div. No need to cutloss and dump because don't need the money now. MIght evn buy more.

AVFAN
post Jul 21 2015, 10:34 PM

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dem...!

talked too long on the phone just now, missed shorting at 51.30! tongue.gif

august futures expiry today, so u know...
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 01:43 AM

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aapl earnings report due after hours at 4.35am.

now down 0.95 at 131.12.

let's hope what happened after last report doesn't repeat. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jul 22 2015, 04:01 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 22 2015, 01:43 AM)
aapl earnings report due after hours at 4.35am.

now down 0.95 at 131.12.

let's hope what happened after last report doesn't repeat. sweat.gif
*
what is your wish? good fruit or bad fruit results? tongue.gif

crazy bear in fruit after market...hohoho..... drool.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 22 2015, 04:31 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 22 2015, 04:01 AM)
what is your wish? good fruit or bad fruit results?  tongue.gif

crazy bear in fruit after market...hohoho..... drool.gif
*
aapl after hours close at 121.80, -7.8%. shocking.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 22 2015, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 22 2015, 09:57 AM)
aapl after hours close at 121.80, -7.8%. shocking.gif
*
WTF.. oh frack..who shook the apple tree? mad.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 22 2015, 11:22 AM
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 22 2015, 11:41 AM

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GPRO surged more than 6% from the its 11am low. Anyone who did that is definitely lucky.
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post Jul 22 2015, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 22 2015, 11:22 AM)
WTF.. oh frack..who shook the apple tree?  mad.gif
*
me counting my coins in my piggy bank and soon collecting few fruits ... 121? woo .... really 121? wow! drool.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 22 2015, 11:41 AM)
GPRO surged more than 6% from the its 11am low. Anyone who did that is definitely lucky.
*
gpro and its supplier, amba...
i have traded them a few times.
very volatile, quite common to see 5-8% range for day trades.
too chicken to keep long term. tongue.gif

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 22 2015, 11:22 AM)
WTF.. oh frack..who shook the apple tree?  mad.gif
*
it seems to be repeating what was seen in last qtr.
rammed up before earnings report, then dive upon the data.
recover a bit the day after, then drift lower, lower...
repeat after 3 months, next qtr.
will hv to consider selling when it returns to 130ish... hmm.gif
yok70
post Jul 22 2015, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 22 2015, 11:22 AM)
WTF.. oh frack..who shook the apple tree?  mad.gif
*
they said profit good but forecast number not nice woh.....well, forecast number they worried.... whistling.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 22 2015, 05:23 PM

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Looks like a gloomy opening today.

Pre-Market Indicator
Dow - 17,797.00 -69.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4,617.25 -49.25
S&P 500 - 2,107.25 -7.25

And...AAPL alone is indicated to shave 46.30 points from the Dow alone.
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 07:44 PM

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futures improving... coke and boeing earnings beat estimates.

still, the fruit will weigh.

plus crude falling, falling...



think i'll look at fxi and fxp tonite. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 22 2015, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 22 2015, 07:44 PM)
futures improving... coke and boeing earnings beat estimates.

still, the fruit will weigh.

plus crude falling, falling...
think i'll look at fxi and fxp tonite. laugh.gif
*
Crude still hanging on to $50 so far.. but the floor shaky.. sweat.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 22 2015, 09:38 PM)
Crude still hanging on to $50 so far.. but the floor shaky..  sweat.gif
*
broken... heading for 47, i think! laugh.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 22 2015, 10:22 PM

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*sigh, the GPRO straddle is going against me. After I found out, the stock did rally more than 20% "before the earnings" doh.gif Anyway, scalp out some put options for a 8 percent gain on put options. Still a loss though.
yok70
post Jul 22 2015, 10:32 PM

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oil may retest previous low....not looking good for short term.
fruit story too fast too furious.....guess not like market. bet it will drop further before steady rebounding.
broad market....looking at correction....see can reach 2050 or not....
laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 22 2015, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 22 2015, 10:32 PM)
oil may retest previous low....not looking good for short term.
*
oil will be cheap until sometime in 2016, no escape.

china can use cheap oil; i just took some fxi.

will hunt hk 02828 tmrw. wink.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 23 2015, 02:28 AM

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anyone watching crude dive?

cruel... shocking.gif
yok70
post Jul 23 2015, 02:29 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 23 2015, 02:28 AM)
anyone watching crude dive?

cruel...  shocking.gif
*
44 coming.... unsure.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 23 2015, 06:43 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 23 2015, 02:29 AM)
44 coming.... unsure.gif
*
Waah.. you're super bearish. sweat.gif

Oil at 40'sh is like in 2009.. during recession. But, heck, where's recession now?
Everyone happy go lucky.


AVFAN
post Jul 23 2015, 08:14 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2015, 06:43 AM)
Waah.. you're super bearish.   sweat.gif

Oil at 40'sh is like in 2009.. during recession.  But, heck, where's recession now?
Everyone happy go lucky.
*
it was around 44 at end jan and mid mar 2015.

44 is possible as a triple bottom.

but more likely to hang around 47.50.

i see still plenty of chance to play crude/energy short and inverse. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 23 2015, 08:15 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 23 2015, 10:27 AM

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Hey.. whatca know. The fruit is at good support here at 125 after so called wall street "disappointment" about their outlook.
Sales missed "analysts" estimates? Who are those analysts huh? What are they drinking? hmm.gif

US 49.5bln revenue for last qtr with 35% growth from last year.. is a huge success in my book.
Heck, enough to even pay off Malaysia 1MDB debt in one shot and lots of spare change.
Najib could have invested in AAPL fund instead ... tongue.gif

I think we got good buying opportunity again if it dives down below 120 again. brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 23 2015, 10:29 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 23 2015, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2015, 10:27 AM)
Hey.. whatca know. The fruit is at good support here at 125 after so called wall street "disappointment" about their outlook.
*
here's the thing i dun quite follow.

so much already returned to shareholders via buyback?

yet the price have not improved since buyback announcement made in apr.

what would happen if the buyback is reduced or halted? hmm.gif

QUOTE
Apple is also seeking to return more of its growing cash hoard to investors. In April, the company unveiled plans to boost capital return program by $70 billion, increasing a share-buyback authorization by $50 billion and increasing dividends by 11 percent. At the end of June quarter, the company had returned $126 billion of its $200 billion program, including $90 billion in share repurchases, Chief Financial officer Luca Maestri told analysts on Tuesday.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...h-held-overseas

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post Jul 23 2015, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 23 2015, 10:45 AM)
here's the thing i dun quite follow.

so much already returned to shareholders via buyback?

yet the price have not improved since buyback announcement made in apr.

what would happen if the buyback is reduced or halted? hmm.gif
*
Not just AAPL, lots of other companies (INTC, WFC, XOM, GILD) are doing this to pump up their EPS.
I think buy back won't stop because they got tons of cash and no where to go.
Eventually, price will improve because of the reduction of shares in market and earnings continue to improve.
Maybe even more volatile too.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 23 2015, 11:19 AM
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 23 2015, 05:51 PM

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After 2 days of red sea, we may finally get a green!

Pre-Market Indicator
Dow - 17809.00 +24.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4627.75 +10.25
S&P 500 - 2111.00 +3.00

Looks like MCD, CMCSA will announcing their earnings soon while AMZN, T with TRIP will be announcing their earnings during after hours later, everyone is keeping a wait and see attitude. And surprise, it seems WTI Crude is below 50 again. Wonder if it will ever rebound?

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Jul 23 2015, 05:53 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 23 2015, 05:58 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2015, 11:19 AM)
Not just AAPL, lots of other companies (INTC, WFC, XOM, GILD)  are doing this to pump up their EPS.
I think buy back won't stop because they got tons of cash and no where to go.
Eventually, price will improve because of the reduction of shares in market and earnings continue to improve.
Maybe even more volatile too.
*
futures now showing aapl 126.14, up 0.73%.

looks ok for now. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 23 2015, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2015, 10:27 AM)
Hey.. whatca know. The fruit is at good support here at 125 after so called wall street "disappointment" about their outlook.
Sales missed "analysts" estimates?  Who are those analysts huh? What are they drinking?  hmm.gif

US 49.5bln revenue for last qtr with 35% growth from last year.. is a huge success in my book.
Heck, enough to even pay off Malaysia 1MDB debt in one shot and lots of spare change.
Najib could have invested in AAPL fund instead ... tongue.gif

I think we got good buying opportunity again if it dives down below 120 again.  brows.gif
*
fruit worth 200+, Ichan said. But i think it worth 400+. biggrin.gif
with it could correct back to 116-118, that would be nice buy. brows.gif
yok70
post Jul 23 2015, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 23 2015, 05:51 PM)
After 2 days of red sea, we may finally get a green!

Pre-Market Indicator
Dow - 17809.00 +24.00
Nasdaq 100 - 4627.75 +10.25
S&P 500 - 2111.00 +3.00

Looks like MCD, CMCSA will announcing their earnings soon while AMZN, T with TRIP will be announcing their earnings during after hours later, everyone is keeping a wait and see attitude. And surprise, it seems WTI Crude is below 50 again. Wonder if it will ever rebound?
*
come on, i want to see 2050. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 23 2015, 10:58 PM

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tonight looks peaceful and calm... biggrin.gif

yok70
post Jul 23 2015, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 23 2015, 10:58 PM)
tonight looks peaceful and calm... biggrin.gif
*
ya, disappointed. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 02:04 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 23 2015, 11:24 PM)
ya, disappointed.  biggrin.gif
*
not too bad...

the fruit still gaining!

crude still diving...

this report is awfully gloomy for oil:

QUOTE
Oil Warning: The Crash Could Be the Worst in More Than 45 Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...e-than-45-years


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 24 2015, 02:26 AM
yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 02:52 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 02:04 AM)
not too bad...

the fruit still gaining!

crude still diving...

this report is awfully gloomy for oil:
*
my preference for now is everything dive.... laugh.gif
yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 03:30 AM

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good....give me more blood please..... drool.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 24 2015, 09:17 AM

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AMZN up 17% in after hours after a surprising profit. rclxms.gif
yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Jul 24 2015, 09:17 AM)
AMZN up 17% in after hours after a surprising profit.  rclxms.gif
*
consumer spending looking good overall in this quarter report. jobs data good. housing numbers good. banks stable. looks like sept rate hike unavoidable. wondering how market will react to it, it's getting close as Oct is coming. hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 05:06 PM)
consumer spending looking good overall in this quarter report. jobs data good. housing numbers good. banks stable. looks like sept rate hike unavoidable. wondering how market will react to it, it's getting close as Oct is coming.  hmm.gif
*
sep, i think.

usd strengthening not over.

which hammers crude even harder.

so, yr oil 44 or 42 may just come. laugh.gif
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post Jul 24 2015, 06:11 PM

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yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 05:11 PM)
sep, i think.

usd strengthening not over.

which hammers crude even harder.

so, yr oil 44 or 42 may just come. laugh.gif
*
actually i still don't get it, why everyone saying strong usd leads oil lower? please teach me. notworthy.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 06:33 PM)
actually i still don't get it, why everyone saying strong usd leads oil lower? please teach me.  notworthy.gif
*
becos oil is priced in usd worldwide but is produced in many places.

yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 06:36 PM)
becos oil is priced in usd worldwide but is produced in many places.
*
When usd is strong, people don't want to buy oil because it's more expensive. Therefore oil sales for cheaper price to attract buyers back? Is this the reason why?

AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 07:41 PM)
When usd is strong, people don't want to buy oil because it's more expensive. Therefore oil sales for cheaper price to attract buyers back? Is this the reason why?
*
this will help:
http://commodities.about.com/od/researchco...dity-Prices.htm

yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 08:50 PM)
thanks for the link.

hmm......still need time to digest.
i mean, say i'm Malaysian. When USD strong, my ringgit is weak. So, even though oil is cheaper according to USD, but it may not be the case when i (as a consumer) buy oil using ringgit. So the cost is same, then there will be no demand increment in the world except for US. This case, how can dollar affect so much on commodities? hmm.gif

AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 09:18 PM)
This case, how can dollar affect so much on commodities?  hmm.gif
*
don't forget global economy growth is slowing less demand on commodities too.
weak price in usd cum weak demand = double whammy on commodity exporting countries.
did u notice aud = sgd now? laugh.gif
davidcch07
post Jul 24 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 11:03 PM)
don't forget global economy growth is slowing less demand on commodities too.
weak price in usd cum weak demand = double whammy on commodity exporting countries.
did u notice aud = sgd now? laugh.gif
*
SGD is stronger that AUD now.... rclxub.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Jul 24 2015, 10:24 PM

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Got news that Clinton is proposing a sharp increase in short-term capital taxes. Will we be affected?

-----------------------

Hillary Clinton proposes sharp increase in short-term capital gains taxes

Everett Rosenfeld | @Ev_Rosenfeld
6 Mins Ago
Breaking News

Presidential contender Hillary Clinton's plan to overhaul capital gains taxes aims to foster long-term growth by taxing some short-term investments at higher rates.
Clinton's proposal comes as part of her plan to fight what she sees as an excessive focus on quick profits in capital markets.

Clinton's plan specifically seeks to double the period of time for the 39.6 percent top capital gains rate (from up to a year to up to two years), and then institute a sliding scale until assets are held for more than six years.

After that six-year point, those gains would face the current 20 percent tax rate.

Clinton's proposal comes as part of her plan to fight what she sees as an excessive focus on quick profits in capital markets.

-----------------------

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Jul 24 2015, 10:39 PM
yok70
post Jul 24 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 24 2015, 10:03 PM)
don't forget global economy growth is slowing less demand on commodities too.
weak price in usd cum weak demand = double whammy on commodity exporting countries.
did u notice aud = sgd now? laugh.gif
*
sgd is the world best currency, better than usd. sgd is the new gold, if anyone worry on usd, buy sgd. so gold can come back to 800 or 600. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 24 2015, 10:47 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 24 2015, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 10:47 PM)
sgd is the world best currency, better than usd. sgd is the new gold, if anyone worry on usd, buy sgd.  so gold can come back to 800 or 600.  laugh.gif
*
if black gold can go to 40, yellow gold can go to 800, no argument. biggrin.gif
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post Jul 25 2015, 01:31 AM

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crude free fall...

it went below 48 faster than i expected. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jul 25 2015, 01:57 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 25 2015, 01:31 AM)
crude free fall...

it went below 48 faster than i expected. sweat.gif
*
44 coming
2050 coming
800 coming
brows.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 25 2015, 01:57 AM
Hansel
post Jul 25 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2015, 11:47 PM)
sgd is the world best currency, better than usd. sgd is the new gold, if anyone worry on usd, buy sgd.  so gold can come back to 800 or 600.  laugh.gif
*
As I have always predicted,.... rclxms.gif rclxm9.gif however, with Mr Lee Kuan Yew gone now, I hoped things will not change,...
AVFAN
post Jul 25 2015, 10:06 AM

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QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Jul 24 2015, 10:17 PM)
SGD is stronger that AUD now....  rclxub.gif
*
first sgd>nzd
now sgd=aud
soon sgd=cad

sgd=usd? this one won't happen, i think.

keep yr sgd's! biggrin.gif
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post Jul 25 2015, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 25 2015, 11:06 AM)
first sgd>nzd
now sgd=aud
soon sgd=cad

sgd=usd? this one won't happen, i think.

keep yr sgd's! biggrin.gif
*
No,.. keep yout income-generating assets in SGD deno, and income generated must be in SGD deno too, to keep earing the SGD. Just like people are rushing to work in SG now, not only Msians, but also many angmohs. DONOT keep SGD cash - too low intrst rates.
AVFAN
post Jul 25 2015, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 25 2015, 10:41 AM)
DONOT keep SGD cash - too low intrst rates.
*
does anybody keep cash in any currency these days?

debt, a lot la... biggrin.gif

yok70
post Jul 26 2015, 06:59 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 25 2015, 10:06 AM)
first sgd>nzd
now sgd=aud
soon sgd=cad

sgd=usd? this one won't happen, i think.

keep yr sgd's! biggrin.gif
*
hard to say....hard to predict what could happened after US rise rate.....market is so unpredictable.... hmm.gif tongue.gif
Hansel
post Jul 27 2015, 01:06 PM

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If the FOMC truly hikes and not 'NATO' only, the MAS will say : let the SGD be on a gradual appreciation path against a basket of currencies !
May dip for a little while, then will rise again,..... surely and especially against the MYR. For sure !!!
culain99
post Jul 27 2015, 03:00 PM

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what trading account do you guys use to buy US stocks? which has a lower rate ?
AVFAN
post Jul 27 2015, 03:51 PM

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QUOTE(culain99 @ Jul 27 2015, 03:00 PM)
what trading account do you guys use to buy US stocks? which has a lower rate ?
*
some info here:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3595816

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 27 2015, 03:56 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 27 2015, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 25 2015, 01:57 AM)
44 coming
2050 coming
800 coming
brows.gif
*
be careful what u wish for! biggrin.gif

looking like a bloodbath across the board tonite.

shanghai -8%, crude <48. sweat.gif
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post Jul 27 2015, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 27 2015, 04:51 PM)
I thnk it is impt for him to know that if he intends to open a brokerage acct overseas, he must really be prepared with ALL documntations and information in-hand before he buys a ticket to fly there.

And for those who intend to have a brokerage account overseas, please open a bank account there too. ENSURE you can opn a bank acct there. You can then move your funds back and forth between your brokerage cash account and your bank savings account. And if you're an income investor, you can move whatever your remaining dividend from your brokerage cash acct into your bank savings account, then use your foreign bank ATM Card to withdraw the funds from a Msian ATM. Saves you a lot on the wire transfer charges.
AVFAN
post Jul 27 2015, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 27 2015, 04:21 PM)
I thnk it is impt for him to know that if he intends to open a brokerage acct overseas, he must really be prepared with ALL documntations and information in-hand before he buys a ticket to fly there.

And for those who intend to have a brokerage account overseas, please open a bank account there too. ENSURE you can opn a bank acct there. You can then move your funds back and forth between your brokerage cash account and your bank savings account. And if you're an income investor, you can move whatever your remaining dividend from your brokerage cash acct into your bank savings account, then use your foreign bank ATM Card to withdraw the funds from a Msian ATM. Saves you a lot on the wire transfer charges.
*
actually, i think u hv a lot to share for people with such interests.

why not post on that thread? better leave this thread alone for actual stocks discussion.



if u hadn't notice, there is a new "how do i buy foreign stocks" thread almost every week, most of which nobody bothers to reply.

and that is becos there isn't a well developed and continued thread on that. maybe there is but i had not noticed.

i just try to help by diverting them to the threads i had posted something.

maybe u like to help too!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 27 2015, 04:32 PM
Hansel
post Jul 27 2015, 05:40 PM

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Okay,...will do whatever I can if I come across such threads,...
AVFAN
post Jul 27 2015, 08:28 PM

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crude oil and bears battling it out at 47.50.

some tip... brows.gif

QUOTE
The net-long position in West Texas Intermediate contracted 28 percent in the seven days ended July 21, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long positions dropped to a two-year low while short holdings climbed 25 percent.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...as-glut-expands

danmooncake
post Jul 27 2015, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 27 2015, 08:28 PM)
crude oil and bears battling it out at 47.50.

some tip... brows.gif
*
Waah.. I think bears no problem wining. Oil already hit my low target at $48.
Didn't expect that China will go kaboom during the day. The aunties/uncles are cursing now.. where's the da govt help?


yok70
post Jul 27 2015, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 27 2015, 08:28 PM)
crude oil and bears battling it out at 47.50.

some tip... brows.gif
*
ya, bear bear everywhere.... icon_rolleyes.gif
yok70
post Jul 27 2015, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 27 2015, 08:55 PM)
Waah.. I think bears no problem wining. Oil already hit my low target at $48.
Didn't expect that China will go kaboom during the day.  The aunties/uncles are cursing now.. where's the da govt help?
*
that will come later....let the bear come out first, scare away some gamblers first, otherwise gomen too busy day day worry to support/cooling market. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 27 2015, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 27 2015, 09:36 PM)
ya, bear bear everywhere.... icon_rolleyes.gif
*
that's ok.

i keep shorting some of them. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Jul 28 2015, 12:26 AM

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Huh! been away for awhile and back to my screen now. seeing loads of sheets of dirt cheap stuff. the prices are getting a bit alien to me atm as i have not seen these low prices for a while. my watchlist s are bleeding.

look at the oil...coming to 47 soon?

just like a war field, blood everywhere now, flowing from china to HS and now to the dows. sigh!
yok70
post Jul 28 2015, 03:45 AM

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nice bear for today.....but wondering if more to come tomorrow, or a total calm tomorrow.... hmm.gif

took profit on my shorts. Hard to predict the bear will be strong or weak. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 28 2015, 05:18 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 28 2015, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 28 2015, 12:26 AM)
look at the oil...coming to 47 soon?
*
it only took a few hours to get there.

QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 28 2015, 03:45 AM)
took profit on my shorts. Hard to predict the bear will be strong or weak.  biggrin.gif
*
oil shorts? may be premature!?
danmooncake
post Jul 28 2015, 10:08 AM

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Not touching oil now but SP500 once again at the 200ma. Time to load up again.. biggrin.gif


Anyway, this morning gotta to watch China market ... this thing is getting pummeled back to 3500.
If drops below... I think we can see 3000, then bam.. 2500 - this will be back to beginning before the ran up last year as if nothing has happened. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 28 2015, 10:23 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 28 2015, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 28 2015, 10:08 AM)
Not touching oil now but SP500 once again at the 200ma.  Time to load up again..  biggrin.gif
Anyway, this morning gotta to watch China market ... this thing is getting pummeled back to 3500.
If drop below... I think we can see 3000, then bam.. 2500 -  this will be back to beginning before the ran up last year as if nothing has happened.  tongue.gif
*
oil goes below 47, shanghai slumps another 5%.


got any fxp or not? laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 28 2015, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 28 2015, 10:22 AM)
oil goes below 47, shanghai slumps another 5%.
got any fxp or not? laugh.gif
*
Just a bit only.. from last week. let see if this time can break above 42 or not.
Last time, I cabut a bit early.. but also lucky because china bulls (the govt) can turn it around anytime. sweat.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 28 2015, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 28 2015, 10:25 AM)
Just a bit only.. from last week. let see if this time can break above 42 or not.
Last time, I cabut a bit early.. but also lucky because china bulls (the govt) can turn it around anytime.  sweat.gif
*
some analyst...
QUOTE
Analyst Who Predicted Bottom for Shanghai Stocks Sees Further 14% Plunge
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-1929-u-s-crash


QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 28 2015, 12:26 AM)
Huh! been away for awhile and back to my screen now. seeing loads of sheets of dirt cheap stuff. the prices are getting a bit alien to me atm as i have not seen these low prices for a while. my watchlist s are bleeding.
*
maybe rm 4.05 will help... tongue.gif
QUOTE
"You can try to stabilise the ringgit, but ultimately I don't think it can stand the correction," said Chua Hak Bin, Singapore-based head of emerging Asia economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "The ringgit will have to adjust to whatever new equilibrium... we are forecasting the ringgit to weaken to 3.86 by end-2015 and 4.05 by end-2016 against the dollar."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/m...N1042T820150727

yok70
post Jul 28 2015, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 28 2015, 09:17 AM)
it only took a few hours to get there.
oil shorts? may be premature!?
*
SP500 ultra Vix short. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 28 2015, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 28 2015, 01:47 PM)
SP500 ultra Vix short.  biggrin.gif
*
uvxy?

i hv little idea on this one, stick to the easier ones... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 29 2015, 03:48 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 28 2015, 04:19 PM)
uvxy?

i hv little idea on this one, stick to the easier ones... biggrin.gif
*
stick to those you familiar. biggrin.gif

very nice today bull, "lucky" i sold all my shorts yesterday. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 29 2015, 03:48 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 29 2015, 07:08 AM

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Groupers!!! It's works again.. buying that sp500 (calls and 3x bull shares) when it touches 200ma. drool.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 29 2015, 09:30 AM

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Did you guys read this story?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/chinese-far...ost-it-all.html

Uncle farmer invested entire savings of US164K equivalent (convert in RMB, that's like over mln),
then leverage up to 1 mln usd margin (6.2 mln RMB) and buy ONE stock?

And he bought when the SHCOMP index over 4000, because of govt propaganda urging everyone to play..

Everyone will SELL whenever there is a pop opportunity to get their money back.
The institutional players will eat these people alive knowing them have bought on margin.

No wonder China market will crash... with tons of clueless people like this in the market. shakehead.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 29 2015, 09:30 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 29 2015, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 29 2015, 03:48 AM)
stick to those you familiar.  biggrin.gif

very nice today bull, "lucky" i sold all my shorts yesterday.  laugh.gif
*
good job! thumbup.gif

i stick to crude. enough fun to play with coins, sometimes can catch a grouper or two. tongue.gif

here's one view for the coming days:
QUOTE
-“Near term, crude is declining within an extremely steep channel. The market is so weak that the latest bounce couldn’t even make it to channel resistance. 44.60 (close of the 3/18 low day) is a level that could end up providing support for a bounce.” The low for the move so far is 46.66 (close of the low week in March is 46.44). Crude made an outside reversal day today (7/28) at a 17 year trendline today as well. This is a good way (outside reversal) and place (trendline) to form some kind of low.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ell...tWaves_oil.html
user posted image


no future for big oil?
QUOTE
One Simple Chart That Shows the Problem Facing Big Oil
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-facing-big-oil

yok70
post Jul 29 2015, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 29 2015, 09:30 AM)
Did you guys read this story?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/28/chinese-far...ost-it-all.html

Uncle farmer invested entire savings of US164K equivalent (convert in RMB, that's like over mln),
then leverage up to 1 mln usd margin (6.2 mln RMB) and buy ONE stock?

And he bought when the SHCOMP index over 4000, because of govt propaganda urging everyone to play..

Everyone will SELL whenever there is a pop opportunity to get their money back.
The institutional players will eat these people alive knowing them have bought on margin.

No wonder China market will crash... with tons of clueless people like this in the market.  shakehead.gif
*
poor gamblers.
but still, we can't feel pityful for gamblers, can we? They are gamblers. If there is no margin from bank to buy stocks, well, maybe they borrowed from dark market and go Genting to gamble. Not much difference, I think.
cool2.gif
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post Jul 29 2015, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 29 2015, 11:12 AM)
good job! thumbup.gif

i stick to crude. enough fun to play with coins, sometimes can catch a grouper or two. tongue.gif

here's one view for the coming days:
no future for big oil?
*
I think we can start averaging down already for this commodity. Don't pour in the whole bucket yet, but start to buy in slowly. My TA,...
AVFAN
post Jul 29 2015, 06:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 29 2015, 05:53 PM)
I think we can start averaging down already for this commodity. Don't pour in the whole bucket yet, but start to buy in slowly. My TA,...
*
i will wait a bit. it will take time for a few hundred bil capex cancelled to be approved again for big oil spending.


futures now +40.

crude bulls and bears battling it for 3rd round in 3 days at 47.50-47.80.

yellen statement at 2am will be referee who's gonna win... tongue.gif

prepare yr late supper. biggrin.gif
mikehwy
post Jul 29 2015, 09:11 PM

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damn. twtr is to be short down tonight.
lucky my new stable fb is pushed !!!

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Jul 29 2015, 09:12 PM
mikehwy
post Jul 29 2015, 10:35 PM

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latest ...

oil inventory :-

17/7 +2.7m barrels
24/7 -2.4m

this causing a knee jerk + oil price atm ....

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Jul 29 2015, 10:49 PM
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 01:02 AM

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can bear bear return? all in the hands of the most powerful woman in the world, Yellen. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 01:02 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 29 2015, 10:35 PM)
latest ...

oil inventory :-

17/7 +2.7m barrels
24/7 -2.4m

this causing a knee jerk + oil price atm ....
*
nice rebound. wish it could continue....it's not good for world economy if oil price too depressing. nod.gif
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post Jul 30 2015, 01:42 AM

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wti is up 2.5%, brent only 1.2%.

doesn't look like it will hold to me.

we'll see what effect fed statement will have in 20 mins time...
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 01:52 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 30 2015, 01:42 AM)
wti is up 2.5%, brent only 1.2%.

doesn't look like it will hold to me.

we'll see what effect fed statement will have in 20 mins time...
*
ya. i am also negative on oil price for short term... hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 01:55 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 01:52 AM)
ya. i am also negative on oil price for short term... hmm.gif
*
like gold... too much supply, not much demand... biggrin.gif

maybe now summer, more driving, consumption a bit higher, inventories dropped...?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2015, 01:55 AM
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 02:31 AM

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yellen said all good woh....so how? want new high? tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 02:38 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 02:31 AM)
yellen said all good woh....so how? want new high?  tongue.gif
*
no rate hike until dec, i think.

goota do at least one hike, save face. biggrin.gif

yeah, let market may rally a bit more!

oil... looks like it will soften again...
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 03:39 AM

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grabbed more fruit just now. god bless me. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 30 2015, 03:39 AM
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 03:39 AM)
grabbed more fruit just now. god bless me.  sweat.gif
*
bless bless...

no rate hike yet, earnings in usd will be better than if rate hiked. so, rally, i suppose! laugh.gif


oil, energy...
QUOTE
What to do with Energy stocks? Once big Energy ETFs like XLE and XOP broke below the January lows a few weeks ago, the volumes spiked dramatically as investors gave up the ghost.
Predictably, now that we have ONE modest bullish signal, this is reviving talk about a bottom. "Buy when nobody wants them," one energy trader told me this morning.
But nobody think this is going to be the quick rally that was expected in the first quarter. The talk is to buy now, and hold. For a while. Like, a year or two.
That will greatly limit the number of people that will hop on that bandwagon. Too many have seen this movie before.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/29/oil-stocks-...-bandwagon.html

Shell plans for 'prolonged downturn' in oil prices
Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday warned that lower oil prices could continue for several years, and said it was planning for a prolonged downturn.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/shell-says-...d-downturn.html
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 30 2015, 02:04 PM
mikehwy
post Jul 30 2015, 06:54 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 03:39 AM)
grabbed more fruit just now. god bless me.  sweat.gif
*
at 123+ I think no need to sweat. 130 on the way when players start to forget the iWatch sales..

yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 30 2015, 01:51 PM)
bless bless...

no rate hike yet, earnings in usd will be better than if rate hiked. so, rally, i suppose! laugh.gif
oil, energy...
*
thanks for sharing the oily news update... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 30 2015, 06:54 PM)
at 123+ I think no need to sweat. 130 on the way when players start to forget the iWatch sales..
*
i got it at 122.80 yesterday. quite true, they pay too heavy attention on the watch. they forgot all fruits' new product launched had not done well, inclusive the legendary ipod. tongue.gif
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post Jul 30 2015, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 07:49 PM)
thanks for sharing the oily news update... biggrin.gif
*
that's my nightly plaything. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 10:08 PM

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red....GDP data out yet?
AVFAN
post Jul 30 2015, 10:15 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 30 2015, 10:08 PM)
red....GDP data out yet?
*
First reading on Q2 US GDP at 2.3% vs 2.6% expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/first-readi...-q2-us-gdp.html
yok70
post Jul 30 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 30 2015, 10:15 PM)
First reading on Q2 US GDP at 2.3% vs 2.6% expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/first-readi...-q2-us-gdp.html
*
oh....not bad what! what they want? laugh.gif
guess new high is on its way. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 30 2015, 10:17 PM
mikehwy
post Jul 30 2015, 10:33 PM

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lateest ...

fed governor just said situations are not as well, such as in some euro nations and in china ... sep may not have the rise.....
yok70
post Jul 31 2015, 03:02 AM

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crowls back to green. laugh.gif
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post Jul 31 2015, 05:27 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 30 2015, 10:33 PM)
lateest ...

fed governor just said situations are not as well, such as in some euro nations and in china ... sep may not have the rise.....
*
sep unlikely. more likely dec.

fed got some bullets, need a couple more.

QUOTE
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy is still growing at a ho-hum pace, but inside the report was a slight pickup in a quarterly inflation that could help the Fed move toward a rate hike.

Second-quarter GDP grew at a 2.3 percent pace, lower than the 2.5 percent or even more expected by economists. But some traders quickly focused on the 1.8 percent quarter-to-quarter gain in the core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The short end of the Treasury curve sold off with yields on two-year through five-year Treasury notes moving higher.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/gdp-a-dud-b...r-it-needs.html



watch the rm... very tricky for bnm...
QUOTE
Bank Negara grips ringgit tightly as troubles mount
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/306780


Hansel
post Jul 31 2015, 10:49 AM

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MOve again,... then in Dec, move to next year,...
yok70
post Jul 31 2015, 02:43 PM

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Saudi said will reduce production as early as Sept.... hmm.gif biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 02:43 PM)
Saudi said will reduce production as early as Sept.... hmm.gif  biggrin.gif
*
that was yesterday. biggrin.gif

today...
QUOTE
Oil prices fell in Asian trade on Friday as concern over global oversupply intensified after the head of oil producers' cartel OPEC indicated there would be no cut-back in production, although a fall in the U.S. dollar put a floor under prices.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/us-crude-sl...nomic-data.html



crude now 47.80, down 1.5%...
yok70
post Jul 31 2015, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 31 2015, 03:37 PM)
that was yesterday. biggrin.gif

today...
crude now 47.80, down 1.5%...
*
ya....still waiting 44....maybe can breakdown this time.... biggrin.gif
mikehwy
post Jul 31 2015, 06:51 PM

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future looks flat atm. wonder what will move after gaming stocks flew high last night.
oil looking terrible for longers too.


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post Jul 31 2015, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 03:56 PM)
ya....still waiting 44....maybe can breakdown this time.... biggrin.gif
*
maybe 42...

QUOTE
Besides the pressure from the Fed’s interest rate outlook, the ringgit and other emerging currencies were vulnerable to further losses if the WTI hit below US$42 a barrel, said Jameel.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ggit/?style=biz

mikehwy
post Jul 31 2015, 06:57 PM

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latest ...

rumours! ...

ron 97 +0.30
ron 95 +25
diesel +0.30 from 1/8 ...

then i will need to ride my bike again.

AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 06:57 PM)
latest ...

rumours! ...

ron 97 +0.30
ron 95 +25
diesel +0.30 from 1/8 ...

then i will need to ride my bike again.
*
weak ringgit la...

plus need to fund !@#$%...
mikehwy
post Jul 31 2015, 08:54 PM

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latest....

ron 95 n 97 down 10 sen.
ahd be down by more than 20-25 !#+#/#
AVFAN
post Jul 31 2015, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 08:54 PM)
latest....

ron 95 n 97 down 10 sen.
ahd be down by more than 20-25 !#+#/#
*
ok, false alarm.

now, u can change to a bigger cc car! tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Jul 31 2015, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jul 31 2015, 09:17 PM)
ok, false alarm.

now, u can change to a bigger cc car! tongue.gif
*
aiseh man. with this market sentiment, a local Proton is well suited for me. But targeting at a SUV.

Latest .... Exxon recorded record low profit !!!! (oil price la, what else) wub.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Jul 31 2015, 10:36 PM)
aiseh man. with this market sentiment, a local Proton is well suited for me. But targeting at a SUV.

Latest .... Exxon recorded record low profit !!!! (oil price la, what else) wub.gif
*
petrol price will be low for a long time... according to this... sweat.gif
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/31/oil-prices-...dman-sachs.html
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 01:10 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 31 2015, 03:56 PM)
ya....still waiting 44....maybe can breakdown this time.... biggrin.gif
*
one step closer.

looking to break 47 soon after this news:

Baker Hughes US oil rig count rises by 5
Hansel
post Aug 1 2015, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2015, 01:30 AM)
petrol price will be low for a long time... according to this... sweat.gif
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/31/oil-prices-...dman-sachs.html
*
The US Subprime Problem in The US lasted from 2008 till the tapering started in 2014 - that would be approx 6 yrs. The Oil Crisis started in 2015. So,........ will it end and oil price recovers in 2021 ?
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 1 2015, 03:48 PM)
The US Subprime Problem in The US lasted from 2008 till the tapering started in 2014 - that would be approx 6 yrs. The Oil Crisis started in 2015. So,........ will it end and oil price recovers in 2021 ?
*
Goldman in its report, in contrast to the world bank's optimistic forecast, is really saying oil price will be flat for next 5 years given now at used 47 and say low inflation of 1-2% pa.

This can be quite real given shale oil break even of 50 or so. Saudi can go as low as 20 but that will hurt too much, not a real scenario. So, I personally quite agree with goldman's assessment. Remember they were right about GOLD!

Locally, the risk we face is Petronas will pay gomen less and less revenues in the next few years. With jibby holding tight on the steering wheel, question is how fast will gst and other taxes need to rise to fund the usual spending. Doesn't look pretty to me, incl the RM. So the idea of keeping some savings in strong fx to prevent hard earned money from rm erosion is sound. tongue.gif


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post Aug 1 2015, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2015, 04:17 PM)
Locally, the risk we face is Petronas will pay gomen less and less revenues in the next few years. With jibby holding tight on the steering wheel, question is how fast will gst and other taxes need to rise to fund the usual spending. Doesn't look pretty to me, incl the RM. So the idea of keeping some savings in strong fx to prevent hard earned money from rm erosion is sound. tongue.gif
*
Agreed, better to save in foreign currency at the moment.

I've only got my FDs left which mature in October ... remaining transfer from FCA to cover monthly expenses / credit card bills biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(rjb123 @ Aug 1 2015, 06:19 PM)
Agreed, better to save in foreign currency at the moment.

I've only got my FDs left which mature in October ... remaining transfer from FCA to cover monthly expenses / credit card bills  biggrin.gif
*
hi bro, no time no hear! biggrin.gif

rjb123
post Aug 1 2015, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2015, 06:56 PM)
hi bro, no time no hear! biggrin.gif
*
Yeah - very busy with work, no time for anything else! Just logging into IB once a month to do my monthly top up and that's it biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 1 2015, 07:17 PM

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QUOTE(rjb123 @ Aug 1 2015, 07:12 PM)
Yeah - very busy with work, no time for anything else! Just logging into IB once a month to do my monthly top up and that's it  biggrin.gif
*
once a month... i guess u r not trading then.

i been busy too... with IB! laugh.gif
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post Aug 1 2015, 07:57 PM

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Looks like many Interactive Brokers supporters here...
mikehwy
post Aug 1 2015, 08:55 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 1 2015, 12:30 AM)
petrol price will be low for a long time... according to this... sweat.gif
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/31/oil-prices-...dman-sachs.html
*
wonder hows our local petrol price. shd be below 1.70 i guess. vmad.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 1 2015, 08:55 PM)
wonder hows our local petrol price. shd be below 1.70 i guess.  vmad.gif
*
maybe petrol tax now?

never mind, it'll drop 20 sen next month. biggrin.gif

crude now 46.43, next stop 45?
davidcch07
post Aug 3 2015, 06:48 PM

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Sifu ,

any different for this one SGX?

http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/...s/Market+Makers
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 07:14 PM

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QUOTE(davidcch07 @ Aug 3 2015, 06:48 PM)
Sifu ,

any different for this one SGX?

*
u mean those etf's compared to same or equivalent in other bourses?

answer = popularity, volume.

bad idea to trade if so blurdy hard to sell.

from the few etfs i know in bursa, waste of time, nobody's interested.

the largest etfs are typically primarily listed in usa - that's where u wanna be. wink.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 3 2015, 09:12 PM

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latest ...

USD = 3.81 (16 yr low)

citi group eoy target = 3.91

morgan stanley eoy target = 4.00

crude = 46+
palm oil = dropping like stone ....
rm continue on the sliding board ....

die la my job and savings rclxub.gif

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 3 2015, 09:40 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 3 2015, 09:12 PM)
latest ...
USD = 3.81
citi group eoy target = 3.91
morgan stanley eoy target = 4.00
crude = 46+
palm oil = dropping like stone ....
rm continue on the sliding board ....
die la my job and savings  rclxub.gif
*
3.85 already.
bnm throwing in the towel, it seems.

besides falling oil price, watch mgs yields; if n when foreigners lose more confidence and dump the 49% holdings...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/03/malaysias-r...-wild-ride.html
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

newton's 3rd law: jib actions will get a reaction. tongue.gif
yok70
post Aug 3 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 3 2015, 09:45 PM)
3.85 already.
bnm throwing in the towel, it seems.

besides falling oil price, watch mgs yields; if n when foreigners lose more confidence and dump the 49% holdings...
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/03/malaysias-r...-wild-ride.html
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

newton's 3rd law: jib actions will get a reaction. tongue.gif
*
jib contributed 5% RM drop so far, later maybe 10%. vmad.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 3 2015, 11:29 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 3 2015, 10:47 PM)
jib contributed 5% RM drop so far, later maybe 10%.  vmad.gif
*
nothing u can do about that.

except hide.

i mean morph yr rm into something else. laugh.gif
yok70
post Aug 4 2015, 12:53 AM

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bear bear... brows.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 4 2015, 01:16 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 3 2015, 11:29 PM)
nothing u can do about that.

except hide.

i mean morph yr rm into something else. laugh.gif
*
the only bright side is the potential petrol price drop next month. cant really see anything positive atm. things are dropping everywhere now. sigh...and the fruit is getting close to my average price each day. retirement plan might need to change. vmad.gif

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 4 2015, 01:20 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 4 2015, 01:25 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 4 2015, 01:16 AM)
things are dropping everywhere now.
*
prices of everything rising! except stocks. laugh.gif

sea of blood, bad, some like aapl in danger of falling into big bear. gotta watch next 2 days carefully.

and didn't expect crude to fall 4% today. maybe rebound next 2 days to fall again?
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post Aug 4 2015, 12:05 PM

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Waah.. Ringgit drops to 3.87... even at this level, more people continue to dump ringgit and buy USD and SGD. blink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 4 2015, 12:06 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 4 2015, 12:19 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 4 2015, 12:05 PM)
Waah.. Ringgit drops to 3.87...  even at this level, more people continue to dump ringgit and buy USD and SGD.  blink.gif
*
according to small fellas like us, it is primarily caused by xmbd, no end in sight.
according to the politicians, it is all caused by uncontrollable external factors, nothing internal.
u wonder what those billionaire politicians and their cronies are doing now with their rm.

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post Aug 4 2015, 06:04 PM

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all eyes on AAPL and OIL...

QUOTE
All eyes on Brent crude and Apple after sluggish session
http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures


aapl now showing 118.0, -0.34%. sweat.gif

but crude oil is up, almost 46.

futures flat...
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 4 2015, 07:08 PM

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Looks like DIS is releasing their results after hours with a bang. More record highs for this stock. thumbup.gif
yok70
post Aug 4 2015, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 4 2015, 12:05 PM)
Waah.. Ringgit drops to 3.87...  even at this level, more people continue to dump ringgit and buy USD and SGD.  blink.gif
*
4.00 coming... unsure.gif
yok70
post Aug 4 2015, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2015, 12:19 PM)
according to small fellas like us, it is primarily caused by xmbd, no end in sight.
according to the politicians, it is all caused by uncontrollable external factors, nothing internal.
u wonder what those billionaire politicians and their cronies are doing now with their rm.
*
fcking politicians now wanna target on Zeti too.
if i were Zeti, i let RM drops to 5.00. Fck them. Work so hard and get into this shit! No hope this Malaysia, so no hope on ringgit. yawn.gif
yok70
post Aug 4 2015, 08:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2015, 06:04 PM)
all eyes on AAPL and OIL...
aapl now showing 118.0, -0.34%. sweat.gif

but crude oil is up, almost 46.

futures flat...
*
i added more fruit 118 yesterday. cool2.gif
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post Aug 4 2015, 09:25 PM

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latest nit related....

Malaysia graduates ranked 44 out of 50 in a recent University grads survey, in terms of langauage and critical thinking. Dunno what else is the criteria.

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post Aug 4 2015, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 4 2015, 08:00 PM)
i added more fruit 118 yesterday.  cool2.gif
*
looks like going for 110.

painful...
mikehwy
post Aug 4 2015, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2015, 10:16 PM)
looks like going for 110.

painful...
*
analyst at marketwatch* was talking about potential retest of intraday low of 104-105 (Jan 2105? i forgot the test) IF the 200d ma is broken at today's open. the price is getting close to my average entry price...soon ... vmad.gif
davidcch07
post Aug 4 2015, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2015, 11:16 PM)
looks like going for 110.

painful...
*
might be going down .... becareful bro.

RSI - look like oversold... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by davidcch07: Aug 4 2015, 10:56 PM


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AVFAN
post Aug 4 2015, 11:02 PM

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i will buy at 110. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 4 2015, 11:40 PM

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looks like the fruit is pulling diwn the roofs,,, touching 112 soon?
AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 01:41 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 4 2015, 11:40 PM)
looks like the fruit is pulling diwn the roofs,,, touching 112 soon?
*
not quite!

looks stable now at 115.

and crude resumes fall....
mikehwy
post Aug 5 2015, 02:02 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 5 2015, 01:41 AM)
not quite!

looks stable now at 115.

and crude resumes fall....
*
looking at the line price chart for aapl, hands also feel cold already. better iff sscreen and zzzz ..... haha, thats the story of a small punter


AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 5 2015, 02:02 AM)
looking at the line price chart for aapl, hands also feel cold already. better iff sscreen and zzzz ..... haha, thats the story of a small punter
*
i still have a small profit overall. but really disappointing.

exploding volume today!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-line-gives-way

and share buyback sucks: sad.gif
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/04/got-growth-...f-buybacks.html
yok70
post Aug 5 2015, 02:40 AM

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fruit sinks....more can, i don't mind, maybe 105... drool.gif
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post Aug 5 2015, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 4 2015, 10:16 PM)
looks like going for 110.

painful...
*
Line in sand for fruit is 120... imo. cannot buy now.
But, if drop to 105.. then I buy again. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 5 2015, 09:42 AM)
Line in sand for fruit is 120... imo. cannot buy now.
But, if drop to 105.. then I buy again.  tongue.gif
*
ya, can't buy now.
consider when <110.

the selling force is strong.
not looking good for the broader market.

i can only trade crude and inverse crude these days.
fifo - fast in fast out. laugh.gif

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post Aug 5 2015, 08:40 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 5 2015, 10:58 AM)
ya, can't buy now.
consider when <110.

the selling force is strong.
not looking good for the broader market.

i can only trade crude and inverse crude these days.
fifo - fast in fast out. laugh.gif
*
Wow,... timing mkt,... champion man,...
AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 5 2015, 08:40 PM)
Wow,... timing mkt,... champion man,...
*
dun get so serious all the time.

have some fun with coins, can live longer. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 5 2015, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 5 2015, 08:47 PM)
dun get so serious all the time.

have some fun with coins, can live longer. laugh.gif
*
yooo, agree. my coins r growing larger today as my portfolio memmbers jumped out if the barrier in green green jackets. the watchlist looks bery alien after near 2 weeks of blood stained bodies..
AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 5 2015, 10:10 PM)
yooo, agree. my coins r growing larger today as my portfolio memmbers jumped out if the barrier in green green jackets. the watchlist looks bery alien after near 2 weeks of blood stained bodies..
*
today, ok... sea of green!

even the fruit recovered 1%. biggrin.gif

9 mins to some oil data... maybe i can collect some coins later. tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 5 2015, 10:22 PM

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looking back (or forward?), netflix could be a faster money growing site since early 2015.'what a chart!
AVFAN
post Aug 5 2015, 11:27 PM

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oil is indeed very weak.

inventories fell by 4.4 mil bbls, much more than expected.

yet, price turned negative.

looks like going for 44... sweat.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 12:03 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 5 2015, 11:27 PM)
oil is indeed very weak.

inventories fell by 4.4 mil bbls, much more than expected.

yet, price turned negative.

looks like going for 44... sweat.gif
*
yes. looks like piercing below 45 tis evening.
wonder how our gomen gping to price the petrol price comes month end. 1.50-1.70?
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 01:19 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 12:03 AM)
yes. looks like piercing below 45 tis evening.
*
looks like rushing to 44 for support. sweat.gif
yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 02:57 AM

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yahoo finance streaming halt. yawn.gif
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post Aug 6 2015, 10:28 AM

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1 usd = 3.89 rm... very tempting... hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 6 2015, 02:57 AM)
yahoo finance streaming halt.  yawn.gif
*
yes, there were problems... but was ok after midnight.

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 10:28 AM)
1 usd = 3.89 rm...  very tempting... hmm.gif
*
oil still falling... how about 3.99?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/05/why-investo...n-bargains.html


yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 01:18 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 10:28 AM)
1 usd = 3.89 rm...  very tempting... hmm.gif
*
you long RM or short USD ? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 6 2015, 01:19 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 01:19 AM)
looks like rushing to 44 for support. sweat.gif
*
Bro, nymes is hitting 44 very soon. wonder if we can short xle?

AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 04:16 PM)
Bro, nymes is hitting 44 very soon. wonder if we can short xle?
*
would hv made >15% if u bought ery, a 3x inverse xle a few days ago. biggrin.gif

ery (or erx, 3x xle) is not a bad choice if using local platforms with higher brokerage - better to hold a while, not fast trading.

me, i prefer dwti and uco - fast & furious 1-7. laugh.gif

uwti, the inverse of dwti cost a lot more in brokerage, dunno why...
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 04:29 PM)
would hv made >15% if u bought ery, a 3x inverse xle a few days ago. biggrin.gif

ery (or erx, 3x xle) is not a bad choice if using local platforms with higher brokerage - better to hold a while, not fast trading.

me, i prefer dwti and uco - fast & furious 1-7. laugh.gif

uwti, the inverse of dwti cost a lot more in brokerage, dunno why...
*
ya. I read that u are in ery. but oil going down wor. wish I have the ib acc to short it.
looking at fxp tonight.
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 05:30 PM)
ya. I read that u are in ery. but oil going down wor. wish I have the ib acc to short it.
looking at fxp tonight.
*
oil down, will hurt xle.

so, same like short - can buy ery which is 3x inverse xle. not erx! biggrin.gif

one thing, local platforms may not have some the counters i mentioned, but most are there.

fxp... or fxi... china is very jittery, can swing either way crazy...


crude does look like wanting to shed another 1-2% tonight... sweat.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 6 2015, 05:57 PM

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USD/MYR = 3.9040 shakehead.gif

Buy USD now?
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Aug 6 2015, 05:57 PM)
USD/MYR = 3.9040 shakehead.gif

Buy USD now?
*
jan 1998, 4.71. were u around?! biggrin.gif
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/currency

well, can't and won't be the same...

diff is mahathir then, najib now - u decide! tongue.gif
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 6 2015, 06:21 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 06:11 PM)
jan 1998, 4.71. were u around?!  biggrin.gif
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/currency

well, can't and won't be the same...

diff is mahathir then, najib now - u decide! tongue.gif
*
I only joined the stock market foray in 2007, but I did heard that 4.71 was the lowest point the Ringgit ever reached.

After researching on the Ringgit, oil prices are also to blame for the downfall of the Ringgit as well. We would have to wait and see. I am still betting on USD/MYR at 4.00. icon_rolleyes.gif

Anyway, after years of paper trading and riding onto someone's back in US trading, I might soon join in given the market conditions in US keeps up this way. Thinking of TDAmeritrade or IB as the brokerage account. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Aug 6 2015, 06:23 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Aug 6 2015, 06:21 PM)
I only joined the stock market foray in 2007, but I did heard that 4.71 was the lowest point the Ringgit ever reached.

After researching on the Ringgit, oil prices are also to blame for the downfall of the Ringgit as well. We would have to wait and see. I am still betting on USD/MYR at 4.00. icon_rolleyes.gif

Anyway, after years of paper trading and riding onto someone's back in US trading, I might soon join in given the market conditions in US keeps up this way. Thinking of TDAmeritrade or IB as the brokerage account. thumbup.gif
*
rm is down and down because of a triple whammy - falling oil/gas prices, potential usd rate hike and prolonged bad local politics.

the thing is we alredy know this for some time now, don't we?!



yes, go for one of those brokers! rclxms.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 06:11 PM)
jan 1998, 4.71. were u around?!  biggrin.gif
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/currency

well, can't and won't be the same...

diff is mahathir then, najib now - u decide! tongue.gif
*
I was at the phileo market when one afternoon rm nearly hit 5.00 before bank megara intervention. the 5.00'was the message sent iut by soros "see you at 5" to THE cleverest man dr m.
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 6 2015, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 06:30 PM)
rm is down and down because of a triple whammy - falling oil/gas prices, potential usd rate hike and prolonged bad local politics.

the thing is we alredy know this for some time now, don't we?!
yes, go for one of those brokers! rclxms.gif
*
Problem is, everywhere I go is "This is because of 1MDB", "Because our PM is silent on this" and so forth. So yeah, everyone is pinning the blame to say 1MDB is at fault. But the problem is not just 1MDB is the problem but everyone solely blaming on Najib.

I too do not agree with what he is doing at the moment, but I am pretty sure that Australia and Canada is down also because of 1MDB? Now how odd can it be?

Oh yeah I heard most of the forumers here are using IB? But I am planning to play options and stocks and there is a requirement for IB? How about TDAmeritrade?

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Aug 6 2015, 06:37 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 05:49 PM)
oil down, will hurt xle.

so, same like short - can buy ery which is 3x inverse xle. not erx! biggrin.gif

one thing, local platforms may not have some the counters i mentioned, but most are there.

fxp... or fxi... china is very jittery, can swing either way crazy...
crude does look like wanting to shed another 1-2% tonight... sweat.gif
*
I think my local hlib ha these items. I better quick quick add them into my watchlist to study them. hope oil can hild abit before I enter. haha. thanks.
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 06:37 PM

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btw, rm is now 3.90? omg
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Aug 6 2015, 06:35 PM)
Problem is, everywhere I go is "This is because of 1MDB", "Because our PM is silent on this" and so forth. So yeah, everyone is pinning the blame to say 1MDB is at fault. But the problem is not just 1MDB is the problem but everyone solely blaming on Najib.

I too do not agree with what he is doing at the moment, but I am pretty sure that Australia and Canada is down also because of 1MDB? Now how odd can it be?

Oh yeah I heard most of the forumers here are using IB? But I am planning to play options and stocks and there is a requirement for IB? How about TDAmeritrade?
*
it is impt to understand that the main driver is CONFIDENCE, local and foreign investors.

u surely can gauge investor confidence with all those 3 factors together!

ok, this is stocks/fin section... too much politics will derail the thread... tongue.gif



IB is lowest cost. Ameritrade is popular too, as far as i know.
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 6 2015, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 6 2015, 06:45 PM)
it is impt to understand that the main driver is CONFIDENCE, local and foreign investors.

u surely can gauge investor confidence with all those 3 factors together!

ok, this is stocks/fin section... too much politics will derail the thread... tongue.gif
IB is lowest cost. Ameritrade is popular too, as far as i know.
*
Alright thanks. Need to make decisions quickly just in case... whistling.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 6 2015, 06:53 PM

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crude tested 44.55 at 6.37pm. sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 6 2015, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 04:16 PM)
Bro, nymes is hitting 44 very soon. wonder if we can short xle?
*
Oil going $40.xx

Imo, want to play oil, just go for that $5 increments because it is fast moving in a couple of days swing trade.

XLE - is for Oil companies stocks (or energy producing companies) - not necessarily can correlate but somewhat.
(3x leverage is ERX/ERY)

XOP (or USO) - this one correlates more to Crude Oil price.
(3x leverage is GUSH/DRIP).

Just look at the huge run up for DRIP with these last 2 months. shocking.gif

yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(ILoveLalat.net @ Aug 6 2015, 06:35 PM)
Problem is, everywhere I go is "This is because of 1MDB", "Because our PM is silent on this" and so forth. So yeah, everyone is pinning the blame to say 1MDB is at fault. But the problem is not just 1MDB is the problem but everyone solely blaming on Najib.

I too do not agree with what he is doing at the moment, but I am pretty sure that Australia and Canada is down also because of 1MDB? Now how odd can it be?

True. Those and some others also dropped 25% or so, same as ringgit. The stronger ones drops about 10%. Major issue is US rate hike i guess, since Australia has not much to do with oil. nod.gif
yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 09:10 PM)
Oil going $40.xx

Imo, want to play oil, just go for that $5 increments because it is fast moving in a couple of days swing trade.

XLE - is for Oil companies stocks (or energy producing companies) - not necessarily can correlate but somewhat.
(3x leverage is ERX/ERY)

XOP (or USO) - this one correlates more to Crude Oil price.
(3x leverage is GUSH/DRIP).

Just look at the huge run up for DRIP with these last 2 months.  shocking.gif
*
thanks for sharing.

it's quite scary to trade oil now, at critical edge....can up can down anytime. sweat.gif
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 06:37 PM)
btw, rm is now 3.90? omg
*
Yeah.. market rate now 3.91 (3.90 was suppose to be minor resistance).

I think short term target 3.95, no problem but I think the traders will start covering there - pull back down..
before another next leg up towards kaboom number: 4.00 .... tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 09:10 PM)
Oil going $40.xx

Imo, want to play oil, just go for that $5 increments because it is fast moving in a couple of days swing trade.

XLE - is for Oil companies stocks (or energy producing companies) - not necessarily can correlate but somewhat.
(3x leverage is ERX/ERY)

XOP (or USO) - this one correlates more to Crude Oil price.
(3x leverage is GUSH/DRIP).

Just look at the huge run up for DRIP with these last 2 months.  shocking.gif
*
thanks Dan. will study and monitor them. still, things are really overly volatile these months (since June?). i am staying put and learning the 'mastery' of oil trading, lol .....
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 09:43 PM)
thanks Dan. will study and monitor them. still, things are really overly volatile these months (since June?). i am staying put and learning the 'mastery' of oil trading, lol .....
*
Those leverage ones are dangerous to play but if you're buy and hold type, don't play those leverage ones unless you know the direction very well from day to day.

Imo, these oil producing companies (the ones inside XLE etf) are actually pretty good companies (with good dividends yield). It's just that their last 2 quarters earnings were ran down because of crude prices.

But, nothing stays down forever.. because Oil is not going to last forever. Just so happen - we got oversupply now in the market - drove prices down (Iran deal - producing 500K-1mln barrel scared the traders even more).
Sooner or later, prices will come back up.


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post Aug 6 2015, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 09:10 PM)
XOP (or USO) - this one correlates more to Crude Oil price.
(3x leverage is GUSH/DRIP).

Just look at the huge run up for DRIP with these last 2 months.  shocking.gif
*
uso/xop... ok.

gush, drip... hardly any volume. hard to trade...

my fav's are dwti, uwti, sco, uco - great volumes!


QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 6 2015, 09:16 PM)
it's quite scary to trade oil now, at critical edge....can up can down anytime.  sweat.gif
*
u gotta get glued to the screen. can't leave it alone it when u have open position! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 6 2015, 10:33 PM
danmooncake
post Aug 6 2015, 09:56 PM

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Also, if Oil goes to $40... it will be very interesting.
Many oil companies can shut down (if their cost is more than $40).

Eventho, tapis quality can sell higher (around the brent price) but, I think Malaysia will suffer most pain, I read somewhere offshore rig Malaysia cost is around $45-$50 for producing them. nod.gif



mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 09:56 PM)
Also, if Oil goes to $40...  it will be very interesting.
Many oil companies can shut down (if their cost is more than $40).

Eventho, tapis quality can sell higher (around the brent price) but, I think Malaysia will suffer most pain, I read somewhere offshore rig Malaysia cost is around $45-$50 for producing them.  nod.gif
*
if i am not wrong, the shale producers in the US cost is 25-30. maybe they still can last for a wee while.

one more thing, tsla lately has been v volatile, swings of 5-10% is common. its now -11% ! current reason - its new model x has a problem...about building back seats or something ...

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 6 2015, 10:06 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 10:04 PM

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latest ...

tomorrow the influential job report will be out. i am staying put.
ILoveLalat.net
post Aug 6 2015, 10:05 PM

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BTU could be the first to go should the oil prices remained low. Currently a penny stock from $16 a year ago. The barrier of $43 which was predicted to be a rebound point is set to break.

This post has been edited by ILoveLalat.net: Aug 6 2015, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 6 2015, 09:59 PM)
if i am not wrong, the shale producers in the US  cost is 25-30. maybe they still can last for a wee while.

one more thing, tsla lately has been v volatile, swings of 5-10% is common. its now -11% !
*
They (the US shale producers) varies widely.. for new wells, the cost is higher (up to $60/barrel) but for established wells, it drops as low as $20.. or they can just halt the rigs and start again when prices (or demand) resume.
Now, Saudis even lower..(or so they claim). Their cost is like US$10/barrel.

The odd thing is the demand in US hasn't subsided this year. They're still the world biggest users but they've imported a lot less since domestic production has taken over.


Imagine this: Oil now is cheaper than a barrel of processed mineral water.
Might as well close shop and just sell mineral water to earn more money. tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 10:14 PM

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personally i feel so sorry for the oil industry. my ex classmates were in shell and esso making great incomes over the last 2 decades. their allowances were unbelievable, with paid hotel accomodations, grand 2-week leave per month with great pays .. etc etc .... now the roof is torn. sigh .... will oil becoming like commodities with little worth now? look at australia and its currency against sing dollar....
mikehwy
post Aug 6 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 10:06 PM)

Imagine this: Oil now is cheaper than a barrel of processed mineral water.
Might as well close shop and just sell mineral water to earn more money.  tongue.gif
*
haha, exactly! that was what i have been thinking for a while...oil cheaper than mineral water (even tith our new invention GST!). !@#$ rclxm9.gif
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post Aug 6 2015, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 5 2015, 10:22 PM)
looking back (or forward?), netflix could be a faster money growing site since early 2015.'what a  chart!
*
netflix another +5 or 4%! wish i own this from Jan .
yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 10:06 PM)

Imagine this: Oil now is cheaper than a barrel of processed mineral water.
Might as well close shop and just sell mineral water to earn more money.  tongue.gif
*
problem is, no country want to store mineral water. So it's hard to get enough demand if all oil companies change to sell mineral water. tongue.gif
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 6 2015, 10:35 PM)
problem is, no country want to store mineral water. So it's hard to get enough demand if all oil companies change to sell mineral water.  tongue.gif
*
I know in US, the state of California... they need water badly. With the severe drought (wild fires and El Nino), water shortage and rationing, bottled water also very expensive. Plenty of demand there. I was at ball game park.. they charge US $5 for bottled water... shocking.gif


yok70
post Aug 6 2015, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 10:45 PM)
I know in US, the state of California... they need water badly. With the severe drought (wild fires and El Nino), water shortage and rationing, bottled water also very expensive.  Plenty of demand there.  I was at ball game park.. they charge US $5 for bottled water...  shocking.gif
*
no way!! that's really good business there! drool.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 7 2015, 12:33 AM

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things are really dropping now. look at that sune, now -4.5 or -19% !!! so scarry to view it on screen.
yok70
post Aug 7 2015, 12:34 AM

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some starts fishing energy stocks....where will be oil bottom this round? biggrin.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 7 2015, 12:48 AM

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latest...
chinese gomen spent 900b yuan to prop the chinese market for last 2 months.
still planning 1 trillion to support the market.
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post Aug 7 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 12:34 AM)
some starts fishing energy stocks....where will be oil bottom this round?  biggrin.gif
*
as oil price continue to fall in the last few days, i notice the oil/energy etf's stopped falling or slowed in the decline.

not much more to fall? or waiting to fall off a cliff? biggrin.gif



crude now bouncing around 44.50 after falling 1.3%.

taking a breather, resume fall to 42 next week? brows.gif






yok70
post Aug 7 2015, 01:19 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 7 2015, 01:17 AM)
as oil price continue to fall in the last few days, i notice the oil/energy etf's stopped falling or slowed in the decline.

not much more to fall? or waiting to fall off a cliff? biggrin.gif
crude now bouncing around 44.50 after falling 1.3%.

taking a breather, resume fall to 42 next week? brows.gif
*
exactly, that's the tricky part. Are we about to see a clif or the fall has exhausted? That's the question raised when movement slows. A billion dollar question. laugh.gif

back to broad market. Is it bull or bear it seems now? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 7 2015, 01:20 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 01:27 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 01:19 AM)
exactly, that's the tricky part. Are we about to see a clif or the fall has exhausted? That's the question raised when movement slows. A billion dollar question. laugh.gif

back to broad market. Is it bull or bear it seems now?  hmm.gif
*
been falling 22 out of last 30 sessions.

all the data we have at hand does not indicate any significant recovery coming.

may not fall that much that fast anymore, though.

careful, careful... biggrin.gif


yok70
post Aug 7 2015, 02:39 AM

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weak bear?.... hmm.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 7 2015, 10:04 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 7 2015, 12:33 AM)
things are really dropping now. look at that sune, now -4.5 or -19% !!! so scarry to view it on screen.
*
Gosh.. was the quarterly missed that bad?
Heck.. even AMZN loses more money but didn't get punished like this.

Very tempted to get back in here but bears are so darn strong now for this stock. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 7 2015, 10:04 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 7 2015, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 7 2015, 12:48 AM)
latest...
chinese gomen spent 900b yuan to prop the chinese market for last 2 months.
still planning 1 trillion to support the market.
*
The artificial support from the Chinese gomen makes their market almost un-investable now.
People will sell when it gets to 4500 and buy when it gets to 3500 (govt got a PUT in the market).

No more real investors.. all govt or govt linked companies buy and sell to each other. doh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 10:28 AM

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2 things to watch today...

non-farm payrolls - if too good, sure rate hike in sep!

that will drive market down, crude prices down.



locally, bnm fx reserves report.

rm/usd now 3.9275.

market is expect a huge drop in reserves, it seems.

mikehwy
post Aug 7 2015, 05:23 PM

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what time is the non farm job report n any idea of the outcome? + or -? wage rates?
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 05:35 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 7 2015, 05:23 PM)
what time is the non farm job report n any idea of the outcome? + or  -? wage rates?
*
U.S. stock index futures indicated a higher open on Friday with investors eyeing the latest release of U.S. jobs data, which are due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 07:17 PM

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cnbc has take notice...

QUOTE
UPDATE 1-Malaysia reserves fall below $100 bln as ringgit slumps

"I won't say there is panic now but we are quite close," Amy Yuan Zhuang, a senior analyst at Nordea Markets in Singapore, said prior to announcement of end-July reserves.
"The falling FX reserves could be a sign that BNM is trying to limit the ringgit's losses," she said, adding that meant investors could not exclude the possibility of some form of capital controls being imposed.
In a note prior to the release, Societe Generale said that if reserves fall toward $90 billion, BNM is "likely to 'let it go'."
Societe Generale revised its ringgit forecast for the third quarter to 4.1000 from 3.8000.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/reuters-ame...git-slumps.html
AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 08:52 PM

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Futures extend losses amid jobs data


and crude falls again...
nanan75
post Aug 7 2015, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 6 2015, 09:56 PM)
Also, if Oil goes to $40...  it will be very interesting.
Many oil companies can shut down (if their cost is more than $40).

Eventho, tapis quality can sell higher (around the brent price) but, I think Malaysia will suffer most pain, I read somewhere offshore rig Malaysia cost is around $45-$50 for producing them.  nod.gif
*
Tapis should be about $10-12 above Brent.



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post Aug 7 2015, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(nanan75 @ Aug 7 2015, 09:31 PM)
Tapis should be about $10-12 above Brent.
*
It's not... maybe $1-$3 more.. but not that high spread. nod.gif

AVFAN
post Aug 7 2015, 10:07 PM

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crude now testing 44...
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 12:44 AM

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whole show is vicious, with high USD, low oils, uncertain local political stories, much lower foreign reserves .... wonder what else will come on next?

dows is down by over 700 points by now. i am staying aside and see see only as my coins are small and humble.
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 12:50 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 7 2015, 07:17 PM)
cnbc has take notice...
*
QUOTE
UPDATE 1-Malaysia reserves fall below $100 bln as ringgit slumps

"I won't say there is panic now but we are quite close," Amy Yuan Zhuang, a senior analyst at Nordea Markets in Singapore, said prior to announcement of end-July reserves.
"The falling FX reserves could be a sign that BNM is trying to limit the ringgit's losses," she said, adding that meant investors could not exclude the possibility of some form of capital controls being imposed.
In a note prior to the release, Societe Generale said that if reserves fall toward $90 billion, BNM is "likely to 'let it go'."
Societe Generale revised its ringgit forecast for the third quarter to 4.1000 from 3.8000.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/reuters-ame...git-slumps.html

to let go = no further support and free fall?
anyway, might update my little bank book, hoping some rm might leak into my acc. lol
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 12:55 AM

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looking at it again ...

[ SUNE 15.77 -1.31 -8.08% ]

this fello is now lower than the usd 16 before it made a move to short over usd33 after streams of good news in opening more projects ....

mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 01:00 AM

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sigh sigh, for bad job report market shouted bad economy and slow growth, now, for good job report the market is shouting rate rise, rise la rise la, and same effect = prices making huge jump downwards. actually, what do they want?


AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:04 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 12:44 AM)
whole show is vicious, with high USD, low oils, uncertain local political stories, much lower foreign reserves .... wonder what else will come on next?
*
2 things guaranteed - gomem issue more bonds & sukuks, u pay more tax. biggrin.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 8 2015, 01:04 AM)
2 things guaranteed - gomem issue more bonds & sukuks, u pay more tax. biggrin.gif
*
bloomberg tv earlier at 10pm local time was saying mat salleh are selling and holding lesser and lesser soverign bonds by alot (forgot the actual numbers). wonder who still want to buy our gomen bonds? ya, tax might be adjusted in the way they set petrol prices (without any transparency). i am paying gst from morning breakfast at Tesco till evening when i am buying sundries. my am bank malay lady friend just told me she was tired with gst. i saw it in her eyes.
yok70
post Aug 8 2015, 01:15 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:00 AM)
sigh sigh, for bad job report market shouted bad economy and slow growth, now, for good job report the market is shouting rate rise, rise la rise la, and same effect = prices making huge jump downwards. actually, what do they want?
*
when you think it's just noise, ignore it. Stay firm for your judgement. icon_rolleyes.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:23 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:11 AM)
bloomberg tv earlier at 10pm local time was saying mat salleh are selling and holding lesser and lesser soverign bonds by alot (forgot the actual numbers). wonder who still want to buy our gomen bonds?
*
there will be buyers. just have to pay more interest.

mgs yields have been as high as 5% before.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/g...ment-bond-yield

now, it's only 4.18%, can take another 200b debt, no sweat. tongue.gif
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 01:28 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 8 2015, 01:15 AM)
when you think it's just noise, ignore it. Stay firm for your judgement.   icon_rolleyes.gif
*
ya, its noise to me, but i simply dont have the guts to go forward alone while there is nobody behind me. haha, very scarry one. self belief aside, always better to go with the crowd/trend.

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 8 2015, 01:28 AM
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 8 2015, 01:23 AM)
there will be buyers. just have to pay more interest.

mgs yields have been as high as 5% before.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/g...ment-bond-yield

now, it's only 4.18%, can take another 200b debt, no sweat. tongue.gif
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield
*
200b capability? isnt this amount is over and above our foreign reserve? ( i cant get the just announced foreign reserve figure)
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:34 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:28 AM)
ya, its noise to me, but i simply dont have the guts to go forward alone while there is nobody behind me. haha, very scarry one. self belief aside, always better to go with the crowd/trend.
*
there is nothing to play with current conditions.

except - short or inverse oil.

it's been almost 4 hrs, the oils bears are still cracking 44.0.

and i am getting sleepy... laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 01:36 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 8 2015, 01:31 AM)
200b capability? isnt this amount is over and above our foreign reserve? ( i cant get the just announced foreign reserve figure)
*
no la.... <100b usd fx reserves does not stop more borrowing.

debt now is about 700-800b rm now, another 100-200b rm, can.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 8 2015, 01:37 AM
mikehwy
post Aug 8 2015, 01:37 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 8 2015, 01:34 AM)
there is nothing to play with current conditions.

except - short or inverse oil.

it's been almost 4 hrs, the oils bears are still cracking 44.0.

and i am getting sleepy... laugh.gif
*
mee too. its been a taxing week. sleepy too ....
AVFAN
post Aug 8 2015, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 7 2015, 02:39 AM)
weak bear?.... hmm.gif
*
weak bear again.

losses... 7 days in a row. sweat.gif



crude finally broke 44, at 43.76.

next stop... 43, 42?


danmooncake
post Aug 8 2015, 10:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 8 2015, 10:03 AM)
weak bear again.

losses... 7 days in a row. sweat.gif
crude finally broke 44, at 43.76.

next stop... 43, 42?
*
I'm shooting for $40.. just because it is a round psych number. tongue.gif

Anyway, I think next week (overall) market may bomb. The Dow already below that 200ma, next is SP500, followed by Nasdaq - the strongest so far held up by a few largest market cap stock like AMZN,GOOG,FB. Heck.. even AAPL already shaky here at 115.
What's another -10 to -15 pts to $100 later, rite? If happens, let's buy! drool.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 8 2015, 10:06 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 9 2015, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 8 2015, 10:06 PM)
I'm shooting for $40.. just because it is a round psych number.  tongue.gif

Anyway, I think next week (overall) market may bomb.  The Dow already below that 200ma, next is SP500, followed by Nasdaq - the strongest so far held up by a few largest market cap stock like AMZN,GOOG,FB.  Heck.. even AAPL already shaky here at 115.
What's another -10  to -15 pts to $100  later, rite? If happens, let's buy!  drool.gif
*
i hv no mood to by add anything new. just hold on to what i hv, which is back to zero usd roi for the year. biggrin.gif

but... trading crude/inverse is fun. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 10 2015, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE
Bomb blast, US consulate attacked in Istanbul: Reports
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/bomb-blast-...ul-reports.html

mikehwy
post Aug 10 2015, 10:04 PM

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huh, a relief to see green stuff around after 7 days.
still, i feel many prices are struggling to stay higher.
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 12:02 AM

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latest ....

3 analysts included nomura were saying fruit's decline is highly unjustified, a buy call, temp pullback last few days ... buy.

US, people are selling bonds.

china rise today riding on the news of shipliners.

note: 7 sep fruit launching new products .. phone and something elses ...

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 11 2015, 12:58 AM
em0kia
post Aug 11 2015, 12:24 AM

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hello everyone smile.gif nice to meet you guys.. I am very interested in getting US stock and I check around this forum but couldnt find an article/guide on how to purchase US stock.. Maybe thats because i still dont know what are the common keyword used in this industry. but nevertheless, may i know how do you guys purchase the US stocks? Any reputable brokers to recommend? (or can we purchase directly)
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(em0kia @ Aug 11 2015, 12:24 AM)
hello everyone smile.gif nice to meet you guys.. I am very interested in getting US stock and I check around this forum but couldnt find an article/guide on how to purchase US stock.. Maybe thats because i still dont know what are the common keyword used in this industry. but nevertheless, may i know how do you guys purchase the US stocks? Any reputable brokers to recommend? (or can we purchase directly)
*
u will find some good info if u look up the links provided in this thread:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2378747/+60
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 10 2015, 10:04 PM)
huh, a relief to see green stuff around after 7 days.
still, i feel many prices are struggling to stay higher.
*
ya, some rain after a long drought! biggrin.gif


was going to take some profit on inverse crude, then this happened!

guess i hv to wait for the technicians and engineers to fix the malfunction. laugh.gif

In Monday's session, gasoline futures jumped about 3 percent, heading for its largest daily gain in a month, after BP's 240,000 barrel per day crude distillation unit at its Whiting, Indiana, refinery, was shut by a malfunction on Saturday, sources familiar with operations at the plant said.
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 01:00 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 11 2015, 12:38 AM)
ya, some rain after a long drought! biggrin.gif
was going to take some profit on inverse crude, then this happened!

guess i hv to wait for the technicians and engineers to fix the malfunction. laugh.gif

In Monday's session, gasoline futures jumped about 3 percent, heading for its largest daily gain in a month, after BP's 240,000 barrel per day crude distillation unit at its Whiting, Indiana, refinery, was shut by a malfunction on Saturday, sources familiar with operations at the plant said.
*
oil rebounding n i cant see any reasons? or is it a technical rebound after getting smashed for a long while?
yok70
post Aug 11 2015, 01:03 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 11 2015, 01:00 AM)
oil rebounding n i cant see any reasons? or is it a technical rebound after getting smashed for a long while?
*
touched 44 low, gotta technical rebound a bit loh otherwise machines no rice eat already if can't show off their power . tongue.gif

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post Aug 11 2015, 01:05 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 11 2015, 01:00 AM)
oil rebounding n i cant see any reasons? or is it a technical rebound after getting smashed for a long while?
*
well... it has been falling and falling, some rebound takes very little.

a bomb blast in instanbul plus a us refinery broke down - that's all it took to push it up 2-3%. biggrin.gif

can't see it go up much further.
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 01:06 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 11 2015, 01:03 AM)
touched 44 low, gotta technical rebound a bit loh otherwise machines no rice eat already if can't show off their power .  tongue.gif
*
haha. agree.
we saw low of 43+ anad wish i have the facility to short it, but none wor. rclxub.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 01:17 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 11 2015, 01:06 AM)
haha. agree.
we saw low of 43+ anad wish i have the facility to short it, but none wor.  rclxub.gif
*
the downtrend is intact.

it may just drop like a stone anytime! tongue.gif

anyway, some good reading - of currencies, commodities and emerging markets:

QUOTE
EM currency crunch to last beyond Fed hike
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/10/em-currency...d-fed-hike.html

Rumors of commodities' demise are not being exaggerated
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/09/-are-dying-a-slow-death.html

Maybe the Commodities Supercycle Is Actually Real
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015...s-actually-real

End of Commodities Supercycle?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2...-energy-subset/
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 11 2015, 01:22 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 06:06 PM

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tonite will be fun. tongue.gif


.. china rmb devaluation
.. usd rising
.. crude falling
.. euro in red
.. futures -1xx


if u dun know yet, rm is now past 4.0.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=12h
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 08:27 PM

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looking like aa triple digit decline at early hours of opening.
no guts to view nor picking any cheappies....
danmooncake
post Aug 11 2015, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 11 2015, 06:06 PM)
tonite will be fun. tongue.gif 
.. china rmb devaluation
.. usd rising
.. crude falling
.. euro in red
.. futures -1xx
if u dun know yet, rm is now past 4.0.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR&view=12h
*
Waah.. more power to the dollar with the rmb devaluation. More pressure for ringgit to go down even more.
Heck.. I'll wait till 4.1x then before next weekend trip to JB.
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 11 2015, 08:39 PM)
Waah.. more power to the dollar with the rmb devaluation. More pressure for ringgit to go down even more.
Heck.. I'll wait till 4.1x then before next weekend trip to JB.
*
it took only a short time to get to 4.0.

4.1 next weekend, a litle tough... go next month la... tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 09:37 PM

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wa. ugly opening except goog going alphabet, +35 !
AVFAN
post Aug 11 2015, 09:59 PM

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crude crashing faster than the rm! laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 11 2015, 10:07 PM

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latest ...


local gomen issued 5b bonds. over subscribed 1.74 times, lowest in 6 (?) years ...

meryll lynch saying china's currency dev is only the beginning. more 'something big' is coming as it would not lower interest rates....volatility!

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 11 2015, 10:13 PM
dragonfire88
post Aug 12 2015, 12:41 AM

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Newbie in the house =) Would like to ask, is there a safer way to transfer the fund to the online brokerage site like Interactive Broker ( IB ), or I should test it with 100, the subsequently bigger amount? I checked the website but couldnt comprehend firmly, so any sifu here with IB account can shed some light as for fund transfer how it works?

Besides the W- 8BEN form is just for declaration of tax so just confirm can already right? Thanks alot sifu =)
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 01:00 AM

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QUOTE(dragonfire88 @ Aug 12 2015, 12:41 AM)
Newbie in the house =) Would like to ask, is there a safer way to transfer the fund to the online brokerage site like Interactive Broker ( IB ), or I should test it with 100, the subsequently bigger amount? I checked the website but couldnt comprehend firmly, so any sifu here with IB account can shed some light as for fund transfer how it works?

Besides the W- 8BEN form is just for declaration of tax so just confirm can already right? Thanks alot sifu =)
*
IB matters:
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3396549/+40
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 01:16 AM

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ugly, ugly...

aapl cheap sale!

crude struggling to stay above 43...
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 02:08 AM

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shock and awe...

crude non stop diving.

looks like in a hurry to find the bottom. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 12 2015, 02:09 AM
danmooncake
post Aug 12 2015, 11:19 AM

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I think there is a silver lining to China intentional devaluation of its currency.

Short term, it's bad but longer term, the demand for commodities could come back esp.
oil, copper, iron, etc..

They're trying to be competitive again and trying to speed up their slower than usual economic train.

We've seen them slow down quite a bit for the last few years.. from 12%, 11%, 10%, 9%, 8% and now 7% and possibly dropping down to 6% by next year. I think they're realizing they've put on the brakes too hard trying to cool off the real hot economy that has caused massive inflation and bubble-like property market. Now, they wanting to accelerate again
without jeopardizing their huge manufacturing engines (the core of their growth last 10-20years) - perhaps they didn't want the foreign companies to look elsewhere - like moving more to Vietnam, Cambodia, India where costs are much lower.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 12 2015, 11:20 AM
mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 02:07 PM

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i am expecting more qe from the chinese to support its econ growth.
the nation seems to slow down. at 1.30'and afternoon today, lets see its man data to assess any immediate needs for indirect qe, and. how quick they need be

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 12 2015, 02:08 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 12 2015, 02:07 PM)
i am expecting more qe from the chinese to support its econ growth.
the nation seems to slow down. at 1.30'and afternoon today, lets see its man data to assess any immediate needs for indirect qe, and. how quick they need be
*
no good.

QUOTE


expect crude to dive to new low tonight.
yok70
post Aug 12 2015, 05:10 PM

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big bear on bursa continues.... sweat.gif
hesitating bear on china/hk..... unsure.gif
emerging bear on US.....i suspect could be a one leg broken.... hmm.gif
yok70
post Aug 12 2015, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 12 2015, 11:19 AM)
I think there is a silver lining to China intentional devaluation of its currency. 

Short term, it's bad but longer term, the demand for commodities could come back esp.
oil, copper, iron, etc..

They're trying to be competitive again and trying to speed up their slower than usual economic train.

We've seen them slow down quite a bit for the last few years.. from 12%, 11%, 10%, 9%, 8% and now 7% and possibly dropping down to 6% by next year.  I think they're realizing they've put on the brakes too hard trying to cool off the real hot economy that has caused massive inflation and bubble-like property market.  Now, they wanting to accelerate again
without jeopardizing their huge manufacturing engines (the core of their growth last 10-20years) - perhaps they didn't want the foreign companies to look elsewhere - like moving more to Vietnam, Cambodia, India where costs are much lower.
*
kind of agree.
Not only China, it could benefit world economy too as lower costs can boost more industrial activities since easier to make profit. That also makes selling price cheaper possible that boost consuming power as well. As today lots of giant US companies do business worldwide, this is positive news for them too.
When all focus on china's slow down indication, i think it's overdone.
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 05:33 PM

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china's move is surely an attempt to make it cheaper for other countries to keep buying or buy more from them.

which means us cos. earning rmb->usd will get screwed bad. hence aapl the loser! tongue.gif



anyway, think mama bear tonite, brace yrself. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 05:33 PM)
china's move is surely an attempt to make it cheaper for other countries to keep buying or buy more from them.

which means us cos. earning rmb->usd will get screwed bad. hence aapl the loser! tongue.gif
anyway, think mama bear tonite, brace yrself. laugh.gif
*
yoo. seems like same story again. triple digit red? going to be real ugly again coins safe in drawer, waiting for china money factor to subside before setting another retirement plan. now? may be getting unspeakable soon if US trend continues .... rclxub.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 12 2015, 05:30 PM)
kind of agree.
Not only China, it could benefit world economy too as lower costs can boost more industrial activities since easier to make profit. That also makes selling price cheaper possible that boost consuming power as well. As today lots of giant US companies do business worldwide, this is positive news for them too.
When all focus on china's slow down indication, i think it's overdone.
*
yaya. i think the market is over reacted, or the shorters are getting the excuses to shoot! not so good for me le mad.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 12 2015, 05:51 PM)
yoo. seems like same story again. triple digit red? going to be real ugly again coins safe in drawer, waiting for china money factor to subside before setting another retirement plan. now? may be getting unspeakable soon if US trend continues .... rclxub.gif
*
u know, with the triple whammy of falling rm (or rising usd), falling oil, and rmb devaluation (and hence compounding falling rm, rising usd)..

the worst case scenario would be:

.. bought at high price and holding oil&energy, china, and bursa stocks in rm.


the best case scenario would be:

.. bought and held oil/energy shorts or inverses in usd.


i am a mix of both, so... win some, lose some.... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 12 2015, 06:17 PM
yok70
post Aug 12 2015, 06:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 06:14 PM)
u know, with the triple whammy of falling rm (or rising usd), falling oil, and rmb devaluation (and hence compounding falling rm, rising usd)..

the worst case scenario would be:

.. bought at high price and holding oil&energy, china, and bursa stocks in rm.
the best case scenario would be:

.. bought and held oil/energy shorts or inverses in usd.
i am a mix of both, so... win some, lose some.... sweat.gif
*
you are hedge fund manager. tongue.gif icon_rolleyes.gif
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post Aug 12 2015, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 12 2015, 06:35 PM)
you are hedge fund manager.  tongue.gif  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
watch aapl... europe trading 111.65. shakehead.gif
yok70
post Aug 12 2015, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 12 2015, 06:37 PM)
watch aapl... europe trading 111.65. shakehead.gif
*
waiting 106. sweat.gif
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 12 2015, 08:35 PM)
waiting 106.  sweat.gif
*
Me too... I'm waiting 105.xx i'sh. I'll dive back in. drool.gif

I tested the AAPL watch... not bad. Tempted to get one but heck,
I'm too cheap for a us400 watch. But, only if AAPL can score me a few Ks, I'll buy one. tongue.gif

mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 09:40 PM

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the roof is torn. everything coming down. today is about guessmg hiw far each goes down. aapl 110+

mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 09:43 PM

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I feel that prices are vicious, ugly ammd hurting now. they say.....
...-10% is pullback, , -10-20 is correction, - >20 is bear.
I shall see! %*¢#

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 12 2015, 09:44 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 09:49 PM

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the chinese devalued rmb 1.9% tues n said its a one time adjustment. roday wed thet devaalue again by 1.6. damn. cant trust these desperadoooos
yok70
post Aug 12 2015, 09:54 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 12 2015, 08:57 PM)
Me too... I'm waiting 105.xx i'sh. I'll dive back in.  drool.gif

I tested the AAPL watch... not bad. Tempted to get one but heck,
I'm too cheap for a us400 watch. But, only if AAPL can score me a few Ks, I'll buy one.  tongue.gif
*
i'm interested to know what attracts you on this watch? please share share.
my friend said he prefer the samsung watch because one big advantage for him is able to put sim card into the samsung watch which doesn't need to bring the phone out for mobile-demanding appointment. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 12 2015, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 12 2015, 09:49 PM)
the chinese devalued rmb 1.9% tues n said its a one time adjustment. roday wed thet devaalue again by 1.6. damn. cant trust these desperadoooos
*
that has provided renewed volatility.

see how crude and the currencies gyrate!

probably preempted fed's rate hike plans.

best to make only small moves at this time. tongue.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 12 2015, 10:04 PM

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latest....
baba smashed back to ipo level. ah ma is planning 4b buy back within 2 years

thursday morning, people bank of china will hold press conference to explain their financial 'strategy'.

(china has been holding on their 7% gdp, and at least 6.5)


This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 12 2015, 11:25 PM
Hansel
post Aug 13 2015, 12:20 AM

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Bloomberg claimed that the RMB devaluation is akin to the SNB dropping their peg against the Euro awhile back,.... wow,... really big effect to the wrld.
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post Aug 13 2015, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 12 2015, 08:35 PM)
waiting 106.  sweat.gif
*
green, touching 114!

QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 12 2015, 10:04 PM)
thursday morning, people bank of china will hold press conference to explain their financial 'strategy'.
*
zeti also speaking tmrw.
doubtful there is any strategy.
maybe retiring, say bye? tongue.gif
yok70
post Aug 13 2015, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2015, 12:30 AM)
green, touching 114!
zeti also speaking tmrw.
doubtful there is any strategy.
maybe retiring, say bye? tongue.gif
*
fruit beautiful rebound. looks like no chance for 106 today. tongue.gif

if zeti retire, RM 5 coming. sweat.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2015, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 13 2015, 12:36 AM)
if zeti retire, RM 5 coming.  sweat.gif
*
that will be if they put a cgpa 3.85 fella in the job.
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post Aug 13 2015, 06:18 AM

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Strong reversal day for Dow and SP500. Good for energy too... mini groupers are seeing swimming around already.

I think they're putting more money into US market and taking them out from emerging for every rally.
yok70
post Aug 13 2015, 06:45 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 13 2015, 06:18 AM)
Strong reversal day for Dow and SP500. Good for energy too... mini groupers are seeing swimming around already.

I think they're putting more money into US market and taking them out from emerging for every rally.
*
beautiful graph on today's rebound. i long today, now the transaction paper gain 7% already. tongue.gif
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post Aug 13 2015, 09:52 AM

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more turbulence coming?

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) weakened the yuan against the dollar for a third consecutive day on Thursday, following reports the central bank intervened to stem the currency's sharp slide late on Wednesday.
The PBoC set the yuan fixing at 6.4010 on Thursday, weaker than the previous day's close of 6.3870 and 1.1 percent down on Wednesday's fix of 6.3306.

mikehwy
post Aug 13 2015, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2015, 09:52 AM)
more turbulence coming?

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) weakened the yuan against the dollar for a third consecutive day on Thursday, following reports the central bank intervened to stem the currency's sharp slide late on Wednesday.
The PBoC set the yuan fixing at 6.4010 on Thursday, weaker than the previous day's close of 6.3870 and 1.1 percent down on Wednesday's fix of 6.3306.

*
announced already? what time?
yday they said it was 2nd and last in the near future! china man is now highly unpredictable. today the Bank was suppossed to ONLY explaining its last 2 days devaluation !!! the world is losing faith in what they r saying v soon, including me.

mikehwy
post Aug 13 2015, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 13 2015, 06:45 AM)
beautiful graph on today's rebound. i long today, now the transaction paper gain 7% already.  tongue.gif
*

+ 7% in one day trade, wow!!! next time tell me what to bet, lol. congrats.
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post Aug 13 2015, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2015, 12:40 AM)
that will be if they put a cgpa 3.85 fella in the job.
*
if that small specky botak tskes iver then its national financial dissaster, "u dont die but I die" syndrome! klse shall bebegin with Kampung Ian s e ..

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post Aug 13 2015, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 13 2015, 02:37 PM)
announced already? what time?
yday they said it was 2nd and last in the near future! china man is now highly unpredictable. today the Bank was suppossed to ONLY explaining its last 2 days devaluation !!! the world is losing faith in what they r saying v soon,  including me.
*
And they can 'opnly' tell the whole world thy are devaluing their currency. biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

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post Aug 13 2015, 03:47 PM

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now, add this...

QUOTE
U.S. F-16s Launch First Attack From Turkey Against Islamic State
Selcan Hacaoglu Anthony Capaccio
August 13, 2015 — 6:38 AM MYT

U.S. F-16 fighter jets hit Islamic State targets in northern Syria in their first airstrikes from Turkey’s Incirlik air base since winning approval to use it last month, according to Pentagon officials.
Six of the jets made by Lockheed Martin Corp. took part in the strikes that are part of a “deeper U.S.-Turkey counter-ISIL cooperation,” Navy Commander Elissa Smith, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said in an e-mailed statement, using an acronym for Islamic State forces.
The U.S. began drone flights from Incirlik last week after Turkey agreed in July to a long-standing American request to use the base for closer airstrikes.

mikehwy
post Aug 13 2015, 08:04 PM

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cheaperer local petrol price comws sept? shd be lower than the 1.70 if we use the same formula (we got or not?)..nymex dipping to 42

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 13 2015, 08:05 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 13 2015, 08:07 PM

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latest...

our 1mdb probe completed. zeti just announced the papers hv been submitted to AG.

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post Aug 13 2015, 08:57 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 13 2015, 08:04 PM)
cheaperer local petrol price comws sept? shd be lower than the 1.70 if we use the same formula (we got or not?)..nymex dipping to 42
*
should be.

only thing is possible jeep gets yes-cabinet to quick-quick agree to new petrol tax, no need to announce. tongue.gif



tonite will be fun... europe up, futures+..

crude... down and down... after 2 days battling at 43, the bears won...

we'll see if it will dive to 42 next 2 days.

from now on, anything can happen... sweat.gif




mikehwy
post Aug 13 2015, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2015, 08:57 PM)
should be.

only thing is possible jeep gets yes-cabinet to quick-quick agree to new petrol tax, no need to announce. tongue.gif
tonite will be fun... europe up, futures+..

crude... down and down...  after 2 days battling at 43, the bears won...

we'll see if it will dive to 42 next 2 days.

from now on, anything can happen... sweat.gif
*
mild start. flat atm. well, at least i am not saying (like last few days) triple digit red. haha ....good for a change, healthy sight around. will it hold well into 2am (usually the swing is here) ?

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post Aug 13 2015, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 13 2015, 09:47 PM)
mild start. flat atm. well, at least i am not saying (like last few days) triple digit red. haha ....good for a change, healthy sight around. will it hold well into 2am (usually the swing is here) ?
*
i actually notice the swings usually come at 11pm, when i am watching my tv shows! laugh.gif


din't expect it to happen so soon - new crude battle for 42.50. sweat.gif
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post Aug 13 2015, 09:57 PM

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fruit again? sometimes it looks 'cheap' to me now, and sometimes it looks abit 'over price' to me. lets wait.

p/s: 9/sep launching new phones and pads.

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 13 2015, 09:58 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 13 2015, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 13 2015, 09:57 PM)
fruit again? sometimes it looks 'cheap' to me now, and sometimes it looks abit 'over price' to me. lets wait.

p/s: 9/sep launching new phones and pads.
*
the fruit doing ok wor... surprise! biggrin.gif
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post Aug 13 2015, 11:26 PM

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2130 coming? .... tongue.gif
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post Aug 13 2015, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 13 2015, 10:48 PM)
the fruit doing ok wor... surprise! biggrin.gif
*
109 TO 115.. hmm.gif not bad but not good enough yet.
I didn't dip my toes yesterday. I think more sale to come.
Just wanted at least 105-106 level. I'm too cheap here.

But, we still got some at last year price - which was below $100.
Wifey didn't want to sell those..
yok70
post Aug 13 2015, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 13 2015, 11:33 PM)
109 TO 115..  hmm.gif  not bad but not good enough yet.
I didn't dip my toes yesterday. I think more sale to come.
Just wanted at least 105-106 level. I'm too cheap here.

But, we still got some at last year price - which was below $100.
Wifey didn't want to sell those..
*
strong support at 110. needs more negative news to break that down. today spreading some "disappointment on iphone 6s" news, lets see how that goes. biggrin.gif
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post Aug 14 2015, 12:38 AM

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this is interesting...

QUOTE
"Clearly, when we saw the futures roll over, that's when we we saw oil roll over," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. "Right now the correlation between the Dow and WTI is as tight as I've seen it."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/13/stocks-open...gests-data.html


both dow and wti rose on the same days 28, 29 july and 10 aug. rest of the days, they fell together.

based on that, dow will turn red later today as wti is unlikely to go green after losing 2.5%. laugh.gif


this analysis puts next support level at 41.68...?
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/art...-at-Bounce.html

very bearish...

QUOTE
Crude Sinks into Steep Short Term Downtrend Line
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ell...tWaves_oil.html

user posted image


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 14 2015, 12:42 AM
yok70
post Aug 14 2015, 01:11 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 12:38 AM)
this is interesting...
both dow and wti rose on the same days 28, 29 july and 10 aug. rest of the days, they fell together.

LOL!

yok70
post Aug 14 2015, 01:59 AM

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today low volume....sideline market....waiting to up or down? biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 14 2015, 02:07 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 14 2015, 01:59 AM)
today low volume....sideline market....waiting to up or down?  biggrin.gif
*
more fun watching crude.

crashed 43, crashed 42 in one night!

now at 6-yr low.
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 02:07 AM)
more fun watching crude.

crashed 43, crashed 42 in one night!

now at 6-yr low.
*
The energy index ETF (XLE) seems to be holding up...despite crude crashing back to low 42.
but, not sure if it can hang on yet.. if oil does crash below 40 later. sweat.gif
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 13 2015, 11:59 PM)
strong support at 110. needs more negative news to break that down. today spreading some "disappointment on iphone 6s" news, lets see how that goes.  biggrin.gif
*
Sometimes, I wonder about AAPL. A lot of people really got very high expectations that it must excel all the time. Despite making billions every year.. its stock price hardly move much and its valuation getting cheaper every quarter with all those cash.

Relative to other tech stocks (like AMZN and NFLX), which most hardly had any positive earnings, their stocks soared like rocket ship.
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post Aug 14 2015, 02:26 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 02:16 AM)
The energy index ETF (XLE) seems to be holding up...despite crude crashing back to low 42.
but, not sure if it can hang on yet.. if oil does crash below 40 later.  sweat.gif
*
yes, i noticed that quite some days ago.

not only xle. oih too does not seem to fall much anymore at 31.xx while crude keeps falling.

i am fearful these will fall off a cliff at some stage if crude keeps going down.

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 02:26 AM)
yes, i noticed that quite some days ago.

not only xle. oih too does not seem to fall much anymore at 31.xx while crude keeps falling.

i am fearful these will fall off a cliff at some stage if crude keeps going down.
*
Both USO and XOP follows Crude price closer than XLE.

Take a look at the leverage side of XOP: GUSH and DRIP
Their ticker names should be inverse of their chart pattern. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Aug 14 2015, 02:58 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 02:07 AM)
more fun watching crude.

crashed 43, crashed 42 in one night!

now at 6-yr low.
*
i think high chance to break down 40 soon... biggrin.gif
yok70
post Aug 14 2015, 03:00 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 02:22 AM)
Sometimes, I wonder about AAPL. A lot of people really got very high expectations that it must excel all the time. Despite making billions every year.. its stock price hardly move much and its valuation getting cheaper every quarter with all those cash.

Relative to other tech stocks (like AMZN and NFLX), which most hardly had any positive earnings, their stocks soared like rocket ship.
*
yap, it's so weird that the best performer tech giant is the cheapest as well. I think too many big funds are still at collecting or holding stage? Therefore nobody interested to push price up (for selling). hmm.gif
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post Aug 14 2015, 09:14 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 14 2015, 02:58 AM)
i think high chance to break down 40 soon... biggrin.gif
*
from the charts, it dipped momentarily to 39.54 at 6am this morning!

and see how dow almost turned red to follow crude falling. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 02:47 AM)
Take a look at the leverage side of XOP:  GUSH and DRIP
Their ticker names should be inverse of their chart pattern.  biggrin.gif
*
those 2 are low volumes, hard to trade.

i prefer dwti and uco. been good. biggrin.gif
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Tonight.. let see if how low can EWM..go here.... already 5 years low.
Malaysia corporate earnings all gone for this year. shakehead.gif

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post Aug 14 2015, 11:36 AM

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Hello Guys,
i m new here,any of you into SUNE? judging from the pullback from the peak,
the stock currently have relatively low rsi, well 2 days ago, not now.. thinking of grabbing some, but looking at the exchange rate is killing...
any input?

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post Aug 14 2015, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 11:33 AM)
Tonight.. let see if how low can EWM..go here.... already 5 years low.
Malaysia corporate earnings all gone for this year.  shakehead.gif
*
but u get to go to jb this weekend at 4.1. laugh.gif
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QUOTE(Merubin @ Aug 14 2015, 11:36 AM)
Hello Guys,
i m new here,any of you into SUNE? judging from the pullback from the peak,
the stock currently have relatively low rsi, well 2 days ago, not now.. thinking of grabbing some, but looking at the exchange rate is killing...
any input?
*
Some one here was holding SUNE. But, yesterday, got dead cat bounce. Probably tradable low here.
Hold your stop at 12. nod.gif
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 11:51 AM)
but u get to go to jb this weekend at 4.1. laugh.gif
*
Yaah... man. Taking family out for makan and shopping. rclxms.gif

Musang King.. here I come! drool.gif
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post Aug 14 2015, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 12:18 PM)
Some one here was holding SUNE.  But, yesterday, got dead cat bounce. Probably tradable low here.
Hold your stop at 12.  nod.gif
*
yoo. i was the 1 who HELD sune, but disposed for decent profit. no longer interested at it after falling from near 36 to current level. looks like i would leave it as the alternative energy source may not be so attractive already. maybe, just maybe, i would go for trading buy.... but crude is cheaper than mineral water now (Dan said it ?) .... i will be driving more on my mega fuel eater Proton Saga 2010 from Sep as i expect our local petrol price to go 1.70 or lower? haha....i am always too optimistic. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 14 2015, 12:27 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 14 2015, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 14 2015, 12:21 PM)
Yaah... man.  Taking family out for makan and shopping.  rclxms.gif

Musang King.. here I come!  drool.gif
*
y not china or greek? cheaperer there ? lol ....
Merubin
post Aug 14 2015, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 14 2015, 12:26 PM)
yoo. i was the 1 who HELD sune, but disposed for decent profit. no longer interested at it after falling from near 36 to current level. looks like i would leave it as the alternative energy source may not be so attractive already. maybe, just maybe, i would go for trading buy.... but crude is cheaper than mineral water now (Dan said it ?) .... i will be driving more on my mega fuel eater Proton Saga 2010 from Sep as i expect our local petrol price to go 1.70 or lower? haha....i am always too optimistic.  rclxms.gif
*
thanks for the input smile.gif
put that in my KIV list..
USD.MYR = 4.08... cry.gif cry.gif cry.gif
davidcch07
post Aug 14 2015, 05:25 PM

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Dax GDP below expectation.
AVFAN
post Aug 14 2015, 07:37 PM

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tonite appears to be a small bear...

crude is looking to rebound from 42 but there really isn't anything good to help it.



rm... there has been speculative reports that traders raided it to 4.25 but was pushed back to 4.03 by bnm this morning.

so, take care... sweat.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 14 2015, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 07:37 PM)
tonite appears to be a small bear...

crude is looking to rebound from 42 but there really isn't anything good to help it.
rm... there has been speculative reports that traders raided it to 4.25 but was pushed back to 4.03 by bnm this morning.

so, take care... sweat.gif
*
our bnm said yday it wont peg the rm. so more chance to hit it. lucky i park my dole (wa ka ka) 'outside' sometime ago since last year Q4, + my trust balance at hlib foreign acc. still got balance. can withdraw it as rm (from usd) anytime!!! i am not clever, but damn lucky.

AVFAN
post Aug 14 2015, 08:47 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 14 2015, 08:28 PM)
our bnm said yday it wont peg the rm. so more chance to hit it. lucky i park my dole (wa ka ka) 'outside' sometime ago since last year Q4, + my trust balance at hlib foreign acc. still got balance. can withdraw it as rm (from usd) anytime!!! i am not clever, but damn lucky.
*
well, at least u did something to mitigate the risk.

even now, many just brushed it off... all is good... we are special, we are different, we are the best... rolleyes.gif
Brother J
post Aug 14 2015, 08:49 PM

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It's been a while since my last post. Looking at the previous numerous posts I saw similarities in them with CNBC's talking heads. Comment like:" I think crude is going to be $42-$50 until end of the year is laughable". I have said many times that USD to RM should hit 4:0 by July/August.

This is getting serious to the fact that by end of the year it wont be surprised to see 4.90/5.0. Anyway, to think crude will bounce from here is a dream. Won't see significant bounce until lower $30. (That's when we will see 4.90/5.0)

Oh btw, expect to see AAPL hitting lower $90 by end of year too if they rolling out another piece of iphoneX (whatever series). iWatch is a joke, it makes the one who wear it looks like a nerd. (Unless you are in your teens just to make yourself look like a cool kid)

If you think energy stock is going to bounce hard from here, you are out of your mind, but it's your money anyway. Trade safe.
mikehwy
post Aug 14 2015, 09:00 PM

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latest ...

aapl delays its live tv until next year ....

rm drop most today in 6 years ....

affin hwang's head of research Nazri Khan predicted local klci to 1530, 1500 (last time he predicted 2000 ! ??)

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 14 2015, 09:09 PM
yok70
post Aug 14 2015, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 14 2015, 09:00 PM)

rm drop most today in 6 years ....

affin hwang's head of research Nazri Khan predicted local klci to 1530, 1500  (last time he predicted 2000 ! ??)
*
haha! his kind of "predict", a 10 year old child also can do. In fact, many many many "experts" do this kind of prediction all the time. biggrin.gif
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post Aug 14 2015, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 14 2015, 09:41 PM)
haha! his kind of "predict", a 10 year old child also can do. In fact, many many many "experts" do this kind of prediction all the time.  biggrin.gif
*
exactly, he just said rm to be 3.60 soon !!! rclxub.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 14 2015, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(Brother J @ Aug 14 2015, 08:49 PM)
It's been a while since my last post. Looking at the previous numerous posts I saw similarities in them with CNBC's talking heads. Comment like:" I think crude is going to be $42-$50 until end of the year is laughable". I  have said many times that USD to RM should hit 4:0 by July/August.

This is getting serious to the fact that by end of the year it wont be surprised to see 4.90/5.0. Anyway, to think crude will bounce from here is a dream. Won't see significant bounce until lower $30. (That's when we will see 4.90/5.0)

Oh btw, expect to see AAPL hitting lower $90 by end of year too if they rolling out another piece of iphoneX (whatever series). iWatch is a joke, it makes the one who wear it looks like a nerd. (Unless you are in your teens just to make yourself look like a cool kid)

If you think energy stock is going to bounce hard from here, you are out of your mind, but it's your money anyway. Trade safe.
*
nod.gif

short of bombs dropping, there is really no reason oil price will rebound significantly.

thanks, will have all that in mind! biggrin.gif

QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 14 2015, 09:43 PM)
exactly, he just said rm to be 3.60 soon !!! rclxub.gif
*
must have been misquoted. should be 6.30? laugh.gif
Bonescythe
post Aug 14 2015, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 14 2015, 09:00 PM)
latest ...

aapl delays its live tv until next year ....

rm drop most today in 6 years ....

affin hwang's head of research Nazri Khan predicted local klci to 1530, 1500  (last time he predicted 2000 ! ??)
*
He is betul betul one heck of a shit..somemore call.himself with dunno wad technixal analyshit
mikehwy
post Aug 14 2015, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Aug 14 2015, 11:46 PM)
He is betul betul one heck of a shit..somemore call.himself with dunno wad technixal analyshit
*
he is the head of malaysia association of technical analysis wooo. rclxms.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 15 2015, 01:20 AM

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peace and quiet...

nothing moving much, incl crude.

sleep early, nice also. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 15 2015, 01:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 15 2015, 01:20 AM)
peace and quiet...

nothing moving much, incl crude.

sleep early, nice also. laugh.gif
*
yes. too quiet for this friday evening. also nothing much about the biz news .... zzzZZZZ ...
yok70
post Aug 15 2015, 03:18 AM

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flat with low volume.....
market waiting for direction....
place your bet. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 15 2015, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 15 2015, 03:18 AM)
flat with low volume.....
market waiting for direction....
place your bet.  biggrin.gif
*
placed no bet last night.
result.... ok, small gains, can do. biggrin.gif

interesting to see the predicted candlestick bullish engulfing did not live long, died after a few hours.
can expect crude to continue fall next week. tongue.gif

have a good weekend!
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post Aug 15 2015, 06:08 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 14 2015, 08:37 PM)
tonite appears to be a small bear...

crude is looking to rebound from 42 but there really isn't anything good to help it.
rm... there has been speculative reports that traders raided it to 4.25 but was pushed back to 4.03 by bnm this morning.

so, take care... sweat.gif
*
LIke I said earlier,.. I am more afraid of the currency raiders hitting my RM than anything else..... sad.gif sad.gif Too bad the prediction is coming true.
danmooncake
post Aug 16 2015, 01:09 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 15 2015, 06:08 PM)
LIke I said earlier,.. I am more afraid of the currency raiders hitting my RM than anything else.....  sad.gif  sad.gif Too bad the prediction is coming true.
*
Don't worry lah. Your Ringgit today will stay the same, as long as you spend it in Malaysia.
Just ride it out... all this too will pass.

IMO, now it is not a good time for Ringgit to exchange to USD or SGD but great for USD/SGD to Ringgit.

Never felt things so cheap in JB - so far they haven't spike my fav Musang King fruit yet. Eat out also cheap.. biggrin.gif



AVFAN
post Aug 16 2015, 01:16 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 16 2015, 01:09 AM)
Don't worry lah. Your Ringgit today will stay the same, as long as you spend it in Malaysia.
Just ride it out... all this too will pass.

IMO, now it is not a good time for Ringgit to exchange to USD or SGD but great for USD/SGD to Ringgit.

Never felt things so cheap in JB - so far they haven't spike my fav Musang King fruit yet. Eat out also cheap..  biggrin.gif
*
durians may still be cheap - seasonal glut, maybe...

other things, prices are noticeably rising or value reduced.

prawn mee used to have 3 full prawns for rm4.50. now it's 5.50 with 3 half prawns.

same with chicken rice - previous 5 decent full pieces now become 5 narrower and flattened (1 sliced into 2) pieces.

really, that's what the hawkers are doing now. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 16 2015, 01:17 AM
Hansel
post Aug 16 2015, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 16 2015, 02:09 AM)
Don't worry lah. Your Ringgit today will stay the same, as long as you spend it in Malaysia.
Just ride it out... all this too will pass.

IMO, now it is not a good time for Ringgit to exchange to USD or SGD but great for USD/SGD to Ringgit.

Never felt things so cheap in JB - so far they haven't spike my fav Musang King fruit yet. Eat out also cheap..  biggrin.gif
*
Tq, Dan,..I'm afraid I have to agree with AV's opinion that the prices of things are noticeably rising. What worries me even further is tht after the prices of gods have risen, it will not drop back even after everything recovers. WE will be stuck with the inflation that was triggered earlier by other factors on the country, not by demand-pull !

CHaging back my USD/SGD into Ringgit,... would you do so to invest into ASX funds in Msia ?
mikehwy
post Aug 16 2015, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 16 2015, 01:16 AM)
durians may still be cheap - seasonal glut, maybe...

other things, prices are noticeably rising or value reduced.

prawn mee used to have 3 full prawns for rm4.50. now it's 5.50 with 3 half prawns.

same with chicken rice - previous 5 decent full pieces now become 5 narrower and flattened (1 sliced into 2) pieces.

really, that's what the hawkers are doing now. biggrin.gif
*
wow, food 'economist' in the making. but very true. ,my kedai kopi fish n ship was 8.00 now 9.90 with only 1/2 thickness of the normal fried fish! fried rice was 5.5 now 6.20 with few prawns diappearing, rplaced by gfreen peas !!! !@#$. i thot our consumer ministers were saying hawkers shd reduce or maintain their prices ??? i need to re educate myself to understand these ministers.
Bonescythe
post Aug 16 2015, 02:46 PM

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Makan kangkung saja la
yok70
post Aug 17 2015, 03:31 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 16 2015, 01:16 AM)
durians may still be cheap - seasonal glut, maybe...

other things, prices are noticeably rising or value reduced.

prawn mee used to have 3 full prawns for rm4.50. now it's 5.50 with 3 half prawns.

same with chicken rice - previous 5 decent full pieces now become 5 narrower and flattened (1 sliced into 2) pieces.

really, that's what the hawkers are doing now. biggrin.gif
*
so go eat at international restaurants. KFC, Burger King, Starbucks....etc. No change at all, same price same food (so far). biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 17 2015, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 17 2015, 03:31 AM)
so go eat at international restaurants. KFC, Burger King, Starbucks....etc. No change at all, same price same food (so far).  biggrin.gif
*
no, eating less junk fast food like those these days. tongue.gif

actually cooking and eating in more.

raw meat, seafood are all gst free.

going to stock up the freezer again this week as i see imported stuff rising in prices very soon.
mikehwy
post Aug 17 2015, 01:40 PM

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europe seems to be flat at start, stoxx50 flat. nymex 42. things are pretty 'stable' now. will dows rebound? local bourses got bashed again. same stories. month end more volatile with demos and unrest politically.

lets see what we can fish tonight.
TC-Titan
post Aug 17 2015, 01:51 PM

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Anyone know of anything of an upcoming IPO for Pinterest? Going to be listed in NYSE. Received a call today about it.
AVFAN
post Aug 17 2015, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 17 2015, 01:40 PM)
lets see what we can fish tonight.
*
i am definitely going to continue fishing crude inverse. laugh.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 17 2015, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 17 2015, 02:01 PM)
i am definitely going to continue fishing crude inverse. laugh.gif
*
ya, the trend is intact. just like our local fbmklci put warrants. punters have been making huge bucks daily, over 20-40%. but i dare not entering. rclxub.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 17 2015, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 17 2015, 03:50 PM)
ya, the trend is intact. just like our local fbmklci put warrants. punters have been making huge bucks daily, over 20-40%. but i dare not entering.  rclxub.gif
*
honestly, i am shocked by this round of crude price drop.

been going down in a straight line or more less for the last 2 months.

well, the rm is also much like that too.

we'll see which one will stop falling first. tongue.gif :
davidcch07
post Aug 17 2015, 10:14 PM

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let see the oil futures going to $29 smile.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 17 2015, 10:24 PM

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about dows ... no more reasons to drive down today, so the only direction is going up? just my thought.
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post Aug 17 2015, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 17 2015, 10:24 PM)
about dows ... no more reasons to drive down today, so the only direction is going up? just my thought.
*
2130 coming? drool.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 17 2015, 10:28 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 17 2015, 10:26 PM)
2130 coming?  drool.gif
*
hope so hope so le. been dripping blood for almost 2 weeks. rclxms.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 01:12 AM

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small bull, peace and quiet again.

big chance to sleep early... biggrin.gif

danmooncake
post Aug 18 2015, 04:43 AM

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Tonight.. strange price movement for crude and energy. Energy stocks seem to be slightly positive.

Crude: -1.48%
USO:-0.71%
XOP: -0.23%
XLE: +0.20%
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 18 2015, 04:43 AM)
Tonight.. strange price movement for crude and energy. Energy stocks seem to be slightly positive.

Crude: -1.48%
USO:-0.71%
XOP: -0.23%
XLE: +0.20%
*
xle tends to lag crude.

oih - 0.55%

will see tonite.
wti now 41.46, down, down...
yok70
post Aug 18 2015, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 18 2015, 03:34 PM)
xle tends to lag crude.

oih - 0.55%

will see tonite.
wti now 41.46, down, down...
*
40 coming....maybe 39.... sweat.gif
ringgit 4.2 coming....maybe 4.5.... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 18 2015, 03:54 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 04:10 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 18 2015, 03:53 PM)
40 coming....maybe 39.... sweat.gif
ringgit 4.2 coming....maybe 4.5.... sweat.gif
*
for now, yes, i agree with you... crude and will fall further.

the way it always happen, when oil, rm or bursa hit bottom, they can also rebound fast and furious.

those are the exciting unknowns that keep us going, yes?! biggrin.gif

gotta watch very closely, but will lose some sleep. laugh.gif

dow/s&p/nasdaq... dicey... seems money is still leaving there and going to eu markets.
yok70
post Aug 18 2015, 09:57 PM

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oil green?.....oh......
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 10:04 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 18 2015, 09:57 PM)
oil green?.....oh......
*
on a leash... i doubt it's going anywhere far. tongue.gif
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post Aug 18 2015, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 18 2015, 10:04 PM)
on a leash... i doubt it's going anywhere far. tongue.gif
*
latest..... opec said 'we cant just reduce our prooduction to improve the price (they need others to support the reduction)' ...opec changing tune woo ...
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 10:19 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 18 2015, 10:11 PM)
latest..... opec said 'we cant just reduce our prooduction to improve the price (they need others to support the reduction)'  ...opec changing tune woo ...
*
this is impt part... oil is produced in many places. even a cartel can't control the price as some will need the production and $.

venezuela is about to default, still want it to cut production? no way!! biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 18 2015, 10:19 PM
mikehwy
post Aug 18 2015, 10:19 PM

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latest.....

hsbc spore head of asian currency said...msiaa woild need all the reserves to suupport rm back to earlier levell ( I forgot the number).

reported by a locall research, bank :1988 crisis, msia reserves was at 21b. now 96b is considered strong. so fundamentally msiaa is good! ( a malay guy at locall research house)

yok70
post Aug 18 2015, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 18 2015, 10:11 PM)
latest..... opec said 'we cant just reduce our prooduction to improve the price (they need others to support the reduction)'  ...opec changing tune woo ...
*
ya....feel the change of tone.....they suffered too hard from this oil price war..... biggrin.gif
perhaps by end of the year, we will see some aggressive negotiation happening?.....only time will tell. tongue.gif
yok70
post Aug 18 2015, 10:52 PM

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stay firm above 2100 longer a bit, then we shall be able to see 2130 soon....only time will tell. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 18 2015, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 18 2015, 10:52 PM)
stay firm above 2100 longer a bit, then we shall be able to see 2130 soon....only time will tell.  tongue.gif
*
i got a hunch the market will rally later in the night.

and wti will fall back to 41.50. tongue.gif
Oracles99
post Aug 18 2015, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 18 2015, 10:19 PM)
latest.....

hsbc spore head of asian currency said...msiaa woild need all the reserves to suupport rm back to earlier levell ( I forgot the number).

reported by a locall research, bank :1988 crisis, msia reserves was at 21b. now 96b is considered strong. so fundamentally msiaa is good! ( a malay guy at  locall research house)
*
This is a major downturn. I believe nothing is enough if u go against the wind. Almost 100b used up n now USD rate is above RM4.00. Oil is poised to drop further. China is experiencing a slowdown n is now preparing for it as she deliberately devalue the Yuan. Way back in 1998, China help us thru' the crisis by purchasing huge quantities of palm oil.
AVFAN
post Aug 19 2015, 12:51 AM

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looks like another "going nowhere" session.

sleep early again.. biggrin.gif



wti still holding above 42 after 3 days.

this guy thinks the rm will slide further if wti goes below 41.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ense/?style=biz
yok70
post Aug 19 2015, 02:11 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 19 2015, 12:51 AM)
looks like another "going nowhere" session.

sleep early again.. biggrin.gif
wti still holding above 42 after 3 days.

this guy thinks the rm will slide further if wti goes below 41.
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...ense/?style=biz
*
stupid politicians continue to make big mistakes by speaking bullshit "theories". how could RM rebound? There is no reason to rebound. It can only fall further (for a period of time). yawn.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 19 2015, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 19 2015, 02:11 AM)
stupid politicians continue to make big mistakes by speaking bullshit "theories". how could RM rebound? There is no reason to rebound. It can only fall further (for a period of time).  yawn.gif
*
that guy is a currency trader.

but not seeing rm strength today despite:

Short-covering ahead of Thursday's expiry of the key front-month contract in U.S. crude also lifted oil futures in New York.
mikehwy
post Aug 19 2015, 09:38 PM

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wow, just turned on my pc and seeing pools of blood. looking bad, from europe to US. looking bad now ....
AVFAN
post Aug 19 2015, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 19 2015, 09:38 PM)
wow, just turned on my pc and seeing pools of blood. looking bad, from europe to US. looking bad now ....
*
yep, sea of blood again.

except inverse crude. tongue.gif

no eye see, go watch a movie now. biggrin.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 19 2015, 11:03 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 19 2015, 09:51 PM)
yep, sea of blood again.

except inverse crude. tongue.gif

no eye see, go watch a movie now. biggrin.gif
*
me too. dont think the indices can fight bacl that much. dows is -200....early bed
yok70
post Aug 19 2015, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 19 2015, 11:03 PM)
me too. dont think the indices can fight bacl that much. dows is -200....early bed
*
unless there are special force funds coming like the China. laugh.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 12:01 AM

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what's really big is the set up fro crude...

41.50 rising to 43.0 in 3 days only to fall to 41.30 within a few hours. sweat.gif

likely to crash below 41 by end of session.
mikehwy
post Aug 20 2015, 12:13 AM

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latest ....

Msia spent 25b to defend the currency but no effect at all .... die la
yok70
post Aug 20 2015, 12:28 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 12:13 AM)
latest ....

Msia spent 25b to defend the currency but no effect at all .... die la
*
HSBC suspends trading of ringgit today. Don't know for how long. sweat.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 20 2015, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 12:01 AM)
what's really big is the set up fro crude...

41.50 rising to 43.0 in 3 days only to fall to 41.30 within a few hours. sweat.gif

likely to crash below 41 by end of session.
*
US stock piles rose by somthing 25m barrels (i forgot the number) ... + tomorrow's short future covering done liao ? 40 coming !
mikehwy
post Aug 20 2015, 12:36 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 12:28 AM)
HSBC suspends trading of ringgit today. Don't know for how long.  sweat.gif
*
wa, local bank also dare not gamble on the rebound of rm? haha....sigh ..... cry.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 12:36 AM)
wa, local bank also dare not gamble on the rebound of rm? haha....sigh ..... cry.gif
*
HSBC is foreign bank. I'm not sure if it only at foreign country or also in Malaysia.
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post Aug 20 2015, 12:50 AM

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latest ...
copper sharp drop due to chihnese 'synchronise short selling'.

vietnam devalues its currency for the 3rd time this year. (note: it has been risnig sharply against sing dollar lately).

fed statement at 2.30. hope it helps ....

This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 20 2015, 12:52 AM
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 12:13 AM)
latest ....

Msia spent 25b to defend the currency but no effect at all .... die la
*
so many have tried; last one was turkey, all died. biggrin.gif "resistance is futile."

25b... estimate by some bank?

bnm is to release data on fx reserves as of 15 aug only on fri 21 aug for position on july 30.

last position in end july was usd96.7bil. another rm25b used is very possible.

QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 12:33 AM)
US stock piles rose by somthing 25m barrels (i forgot the number) ... + tomorrow's short future covering done liao ? 40 coming !
*
it was 2.6 mil. usa now has almost 1/2 billion barrels in storage, many months to consume it all! biggrin.gif


i see crude dropping further.

plus... latest inflation 3.3% a new high, and msg yields rising... what else to expect of rm?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 20 2015, 01:05 AM
mikehwy
post Aug 20 2015, 01:08 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 12:52 AM)
so many have tried; last one was turkey, all died. biggrin.gif "resistance is futile."

25b... estimate by some bank?

bnm is to release data on fx reserves as of 15 aug only on fri 21 aug for position on july 30.

last position in end july was usd96.7bil. another rm25b used is very possible.
it was 2.6 mil. usa now has almost 1/2 billion barrels in storage, many months to consume it all! biggrin.gif
i see crude dropping further.

plus... latest inflation 3.3% a new high, and msg yields rising... what else to expect of rm?
*
about the inflation. actually my friends and i were talking about it for years. how come our inflation was so low earlier (for years) at below 3? we suspect not correct! whistling.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 01:08 AM)
about the inflation. actually my friends and i were talking about it for years. how come our inflation was so low earlier (for years) at below 3? we suspect not correct! whistling.gif
*
u gotta read bnm inflation figures this way:

.. food and drinks over weighted
.. housing, transport, medical underweighted
.. plenty of small towns and villages data

so, urban-suburban is 3 times figure reported.

pre gst, 6-7%, post gst, 9-10% would be about right. tongue.gif
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 01:14 AM)
u gotta read bnm inflation figures this way:

.. food and drinks over weighted
.. housing, transport, medical underweighted
.. plenty of small towns and villages data

so, urban-suburban is 3 times figure reported.

pre gst, 6-7%, post gst, 9-10% would be about right. tongue.gif
*
do some makeup like going dating..... whistling.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 01:31 AM

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shocker... wti already testing 41. sweat.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 01:36 AM

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lets guess ... what fed is to include in the statement later this evening? ... ex - rate rise depends on inflation and employment data (again?) .... there shd be something on china's devaluation too ... ?
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 01:44 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 01:36 AM)
lets guess ... what fed is to include in the statement later this evening? ... ex - rate rise depends on inflation and employment data (again?) .... there shd be something on china's devaluation too ... ?
*
i doubt there is anything new and significant to read.

with the china thingy, unlikely the hike will come in sep, more likely nov-dec.

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post Aug 20 2015, 01:56 AM

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agree. i can see prices are recovering from days low. even some getting green, altho by aa bit, fb ....
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 02:14 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 01:56 AM)
agree. i can see prices are recovering from days low. even some getting green, altho by aa bit, fb ....
*
minutes released early...

"Most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point. Participants observed that the labor market had improved notably since early this year, but many saw scope for some further improvement," the minutes said.

all might go green... biggrin.gif

anyway, too sleepy, goodnight.
yok70
post Aug 20 2015, 03:48 AM

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another weak bear.... biggrin.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 08:20 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 03:48 AM)
another weak bear.... biggrin.gif
*
What.... the bear actually quite strong overnight. Crude got whacked down to 40.xx ish.
If this breaks... bye bye 40s, here come 30s.

Panic selling...


AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 20 2015, 08:20 AM)
What.... the bear actually quite strong overnight. Crude got whacked down to 40.xx ish.
If this breaks... bye bye 40s, here come 30s.

Panic selling...
*
i think it will break into lower lows and lower highs in the next few days and weeks.

there is really nothing supporting oil price now.

the rate hike/rising $ effect is now overshadowed by global economic downward spiral.

commodities in a slump, china slowing, emerging markets getting whacked again and again.

but it is very sensitive to news... if and when opec says "can consider production cut", it will shake things up more. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 20 2015, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 09:38 AM)
i think it will break into lower lows and lower highs in the next few days and weeks.

there is really nothing supporting oil price now.

the rate hike/rising $ effect is now overshadowed by global economic downward spiral.

commodities in a slump, china slowing, emerging markets getting whacked again and again.

but it is very sensitive to news... if and when opec says "can consider production cut", it will shake things up more. biggrin.gif
*
Bears will not like to hear 'production cut' words. So, they better not utter this.
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post Aug 20 2015, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 20 2015, 09:43 AM)
Bears will not like to hear 'production cut' words. So, they better not utter this.
*
even production cuts may not work.

opec nations are also suffering themselves - Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, a group dubbed the `Fragile Five'.
political turmoil already brewing...
QUOTE


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 20 2015, 09:48 AM
yok70
post Aug 20 2015, 12:42 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 20 2015, 08:20 AM)
What.... the bear actually quite strong overnight. Crude got whacked down to 40.xx ish.
If this breaks... bye bye 40s, here come 30s.

Panic selling...
*
oil is weak....break down 40 is expected....
SP500 is strong at 2060 support...even 2070 seems hard to break down....i see buyers......if china stabilize, bull would be back to break out 2100 then towards 2130....
just a thought biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 20 2015, 12:44 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 12:42 PM)
oil is weak....break down 40 is expected....
*
more and more "analysts" are calling 32, 33... laugh.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 12:53 PM)
more and more "analysts" are calling 32, 33... laugh.gif
*
that makes KLCI 1400 1300 sweat.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 12:53 PM)
more and more "analysts" are calling 32, 33... laugh.gif
*
I remember when oil hit 147, nearly all analysts call for 200. now oil hitting 40 they r out to calll fir 30, then 20....aiseh
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 03:47 PM)
I remember when oil hit 147, nearly all analysts call for 200. now oil hitting 40 they r out to calll fir 30, then 20....aiseh
*
that's the fun of unknowns.

we'll see if anyone will soon call 10! laugh.gif

QUOTE
World drowns in oil as producers slug it out
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/19/world-drown...ug-it-out-.html
user posted image

yok70
post Aug 20 2015, 04:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 03:49 PM)
that's the fun of unknowns.

we'll see if anyone will soon call 10! laugh.gif
*
if 10, then i bet it's time to sell house buy oil. laugh.gif

fyi, china stock whacked again today. guess bear still in play.... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 20 2015, 04:03 PM
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 04:02 PM)
if 10, then i bet it's time to sell house buy oil.  laugh.gif
*
that'll be the day!

meanwhile, wti goes to 40.50, sep futures showing even lower.

gotta get more inverse crude. laugh.gif d

futures -1xx.

and rm hits new low today 4.139. blink.gif
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 03:47 PM)
I remember when oil hit 147, nearly all analysts call for 200. now oil hitting 40 they r out to calll fir 30, then 20....aiseh
*
They also look at the chart and make the call. If they're right, they become hero but if wrong, quietly said nothing.

The only thing special about that 32-33 number is just that momentum downside after break below $39-$40.
I think we may see the $40 support being tested tonight when NYSE market opens.

But, as we all can see SP500 is quite resilient.. that 200ma is being tested again and again.
Time to load up again if 200ma is breached.


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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 04:02 PM)
if 10, then i bet it's time to sell house buy oil.  laugh.gif

fyi, china stock whacked again today. guess bear still in play.... hmm.gif
*
If $10, Malaysia could be recession already. If people wants to sell house and will there be buyers?

Also, I think there are signs that next 2-3 quarters for Malaysia could be very bad..
Anyway, Malaysia hasn't got negative growth since '09. Perhaps time to re-visit huh? brows.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 20 2015, 10:01 PM

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blood, blood, blood.... no eye see....i will take a rest and open my pc again later .... agree with Dan, msia econ data wont be good after gst and outflow of ff .... die la ....
yok70
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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 20 2015, 07:47 PM)
If $10, Malaysia could be recession already. If people wants to sell house and will there be buyers?

Also, I think there are signs that next 2-3 quarters for Malaysia could be very bad..
Anyway, Malaysia hasn't got negative growth since '09. Perhaps time to re-visit huh?  brows.gif
*
haha! true also. better sell house now and hold the cash (half in usd half in rm tongue.gif )

negative growth....i think difficult also. commodity (inclusive crude oil and palm oil) only less then 30% if i remember correctly, other sectors had caught up on GDP contribution. Well one thing is the Petronas dividend, so gomen's income will be lower. Perhaps that time GST 30%, suck income from citizen. sweat.gif
yok70
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 10:01 PM)
blood, blood, blood.... no eye see....i will take a rest and open my pc again later .... agree with Dan, msia econ data wont be good after gst and outflow of ff .... die la ....
*
retest 2060 right in the start.....cool. Lets see how it goes from here.... biggrin.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 10:27 PM

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the fruit looks like wanna test 100. shakehead.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 10:50 PM

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latest...

HSI -20% since apr 2015 peak. big bear. it is seeing 6th death cross in 10 years. wow!

dows at lowest since feb 2015. s&p now below 200ma. OMG !


This post has been edited by mikehwy: Aug 20 2015, 10:53 PM
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post Aug 20 2015, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 10:02 PM)
haha! true also. better sell house now and hold the cash (half in usd half in rm  tongue.gif  )

negative growth....i think difficult also. commodity (inclusive crude oil and palm oil) only less then 30% if i remember correctly, other sectors had caught up on GDP contribution. Well one thing is the Petronas dividend, so gomen's income will be lower. Perhaps that time GST 30%, suck income from citizen.  sweat.gif
*
not to forget petronas tax reduction for gomen. wonder what tax will up this time vmad.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 20 2015, 11:12 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 10:50 PM)
latest...

HSI -20% since apr 2015 peak. big bear. it is seeing 6th death cross in 10 years. wow!

dows at lowest since feb 2015. s&p now below 200ma. OMG !
*
read that death cross thingy...

i got in and out of of china at lightning speed, fortunate minor damage... sweat.gif



us equities... -ve or flat for the year.

but i still got +0.6%! laugh.gif

yok70
post Aug 20 2015, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 11:12 PM)
read that death cross thingy...

i got in and out of of china at lightning speed, fortunate minor damage... sweat.gif
us equities... -ve or flat for the year.

but i still got +0.6%! laugh.gif
*
currency rate gain leh! icon_rolleyes.gif
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post Aug 20 2015, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 20 2015, 10:27 PM)
the fruit looks like wanna test 100. shakehead.gif
*
where is my 106? tongue.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 20 2015, 10:52 PM)
not to forget petronas tax reduction for gomen. wonder what tax will up this time vmad.gif
*
dont tax us again..... already squeze dry loh...... now the agency very hardworking.... 2 yrs ago summons also chase chase.... doh.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 12:41 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 11:49 PM)
currency rate gain leh!  icon_rolleyes.gif
*
sure, that's the big nice one to have. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 20 2015, 11:50 PM)
where is my 106?  tongue.gif
*
i think it will come.

but i hope it goes >120 first, i want out! tongue.gif
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 12:57 AM

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2050 broken. nice show! shocking.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 01:04 AM

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lately it is so easy to predict the tren, even without any fa or ta. aunts and uncles are telling me market cdrash la crash la. how true they are! market is now full of experts yelling 'i know wat, told you so...etc etc...'
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post Aug 21 2015, 01:12 AM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 21 2015, 01:04 AM)
lately it is so easy to predict the tren, even without any fa or ta. aunts and uncles are telling me market cdrash la crash la. how true they are! market is now full of experts yelling 'i know wat, told you so...etc etc...'
*
not only stock market crash.

even kids know the rm crashed.

oil crashed.

before that, gold crashed.

just don't crash yr car! biggrin.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 01:18 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 21 2015, 01:12 AM)
not only stock market crash.

even kids know the rm crashed.

oil crashed.

before that, gold crashed.

just don't crash yr car! biggrin.gif
*
this 'everything also crash' seems like coming on too fast this time. i remember the 2008 property-led downturn was slower and more manageable. this time, yeah, everything also crash.
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post Aug 21 2015, 01:30 AM

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nasdaq -100! it looks like worse than the last bond sell-off.
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post Aug 21 2015, 01:43 AM

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strange....i cannot feel any bearish sentiment.....i am still so bullish.....all crash??....maybe i'm crazy..... cool2.gif
i am continue buying on dips.....maybe i am wrong.....don't follow me to holand.... rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Aug 21 2015, 01:44 AM
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 03:59 AM

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quite a bear today.... flex.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 04:46 AM

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You got your wish.. Big Mama Bear has appeared!!

Opened that 200ma trap doors for Dow, SP500 and Nasdaq..

Strangely... Oil is actually up (41.15) but Oil services get whacked with general market anyway.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 21 2015, 04:49 AM
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 04:57 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 21 2015, 04:46 AM)
You got your wish.. Big Mama Bear has appeared!!

Opened that 200ma trap doors for Dow, SP500 and Nasdaq..

Strangely... Oil is actually up (41.15) but Oil services get whacked with general market anyway.
*
LOL!

is finance.yahoo something wrong? why the SP500 volume so low today? shocking.gif

anyways, i long today. sweat.gif
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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 21 2015, 04:57 AM)
anyways, i long today.  sweat.gif
*
The only one I dare to dip in is FB (it touches that 50ma at $90.50).
I'm holding a stop at 87/88 here.. sweat.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 07:58 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Aug 21 2015, 03:59 AM)
quite a bear today.... flex.gif
*
Better watch China's Shanghai Composite performance today.. that 3500 level is support.
If tanks, others may follow including US stocks tonight. sweat.gif


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post Aug 21 2015, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 21 2015, 04:46 AM)
You got your wish.. Big Mama Bear has appeared!!

Opened that 200ma trap doors for Dow, SP500 and Nasdaq..

Strangely... Oil is actually up (41.15) but Oil services get whacked with general market anyway.
*
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 21 2015, 07:58 AM)
Better watch China's Shanghai Composite performance today.. that 3500 level is support.
If tanks, others may follow including US stocks tonight.  sweat.gif
*
the biz news everywhere this morning is doom and gloom! biggrin.gif

seems some panic has crept in.

gotta stay very alert.

crude... it gained on hurricanes brewing near atlanta and sep contract expiry.

my read is it will sink to 40 tonite. sweat.gif
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 21 2015, 07:58 AM)
Better watch China's Shanghai Composite performance today.. that 3500 level is support.
If tanks, others may follow including US stocks tonight.  sweat.gif
*
it's about at it, 3507. So be prepare for another blood bath tonight. sweat.gif
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post Aug 21 2015, 07:39 PM

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china slumps 4%.

eu down 1.5%.

futures - 6x.

crude struggling to hold 41.

small-mid bear...
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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 21 2015, 07:39 PM)
small-mid bear...
*
Mama bear came up from slumber yesterday.
Now, bear cub come out to play only meh?

Where's papa bear? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 21 2015, 08:03 PM
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 21 2015, 08:02 PM)
Mama bear came up from slumber yesterday.
Now, bear cub come out to play only meh?

Where's papa bear?  whistling.gif
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papa bear is confused. he has been drunk for months. biggrin.gif
AVFAN
post Aug 21 2015, 08:34 PM

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aapl going below 110 tonite. shakehead.gif
mikehwy
post Aug 21 2015, 08:59 PM

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looks like 'another' day, same story? I hope little bear will do not much harm after yday slaughter house drama. small cut or wound can be tolerable
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 21 2015, 08:59 PM)
looks like 'another' day, same story? I hope little bear will do not much harm after yday slaughter house drama. small cut or wound can be tolerable
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this depends on how strong the bulls are. since it had already broken the line, now at risk of market top concern.... sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 21 2015, 09:12 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Aug 21 2015, 08:34 PM)
aapl going below 110 tonite. shakehead.gif
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I'll be watching that too... if 105, I'll jump in.
mikehwy
post Aug 21 2015, 09:34 PM

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at dows -165, 'surely' its time for trading.
mikehwy
post Aug 21 2015, 09:36 PM

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nflx near -20% since yday!
danmooncake
post Aug 21 2015, 10:04 PM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
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QUOTE(mikehwy @ Aug 21 2015, 09:36 PM)
nflx near -20% since yday!
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NFLX overshoots to upside earlier this month ($120? Must take profit-lah!)...
due to stellar growth but I think it's a tradable here at $105-$106 level or fill that gap to $102 (50ma as support). drool.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 21 2015, 10:05 PM
yok70
post Aug 21 2015, 10:10 PM

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2022 drool.gif

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