XLE almost recovered back.... wow, what a move!

Dan,... somehow, I 'feel' the days of $25 - $26 are gone, and so are any numbers below $38. It will hover around $40,... till some really good and solid news come along, then rises gradually.

guys, i short some more.

Not impossible (revisit $25-$26 or the two handles) but usually, it requires a test of double bottom (technically speaking of course).

Fundamentally, I see no reason to be too bullish for crude. We are still in way oversupply mode, none of the OPEC members have cut single barrel of oil - despite their talk of "freeze" since two months ago. Demand hasn't gone up.. US shale only took some rigs offline and wait for prices to get better and they're start again at this level.

Seasonally, yes, driving seasons have started in North America but that's just going to use up gasoline demand, not crude. Refiners are in maintenance mode.. crude inventory itself will likely continue to increase until July/Aug time frame.

I believe we're going to get stuck in this range low $30-$40'ish (with a bit of overshooting outside that range) for a while.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Apr 18 2016, 10:15 PM

Good luck..


I'm done riding XLE for now.

this is what i come to as well.

the financial markets can push prices here and there; the politicians can do smoke and mirrors, cry wolf.

but... the actual relentless supply and slowing demand will overwhelm.

it will take a spark to trigger another meltdown.

it will come, a matter of time.

unless week after week, the stocks go lower.

i checked out everything too.

dwti... 140 will do, hope to sleep early.

Well,... since what I have are just feelings,...there's not much to debate from my end,..let's see how far will oil drop tonight with Nymex....

I know what you mean.. sometimes, your mind/heart telling you stuff.. but what happening in real world is different.
Just have to see what's going to happen.

Why do I see both Brent and WTI Crude rising ?

becos u r smart la.

Better turn-in,...First REIT AGM this morning,...

strong oil rebound! oil bulls just not ready to give up yet....

what an eventful evening! crude simply recovers fast and sure. seems like it can ride thru the 'uncertain' hour at 2.30 because i had long indices at KLSE and Hang Seng call warrants. as for crude, i am not good at it...i short and it goes up, i long and it simply dives in front of me! huh .....

haha! ya. very frustrating to trade oil nowadays.

looks like it's heading green tonight even....

later, we'll have tons of experts jumping out of nowhere telling us why today oil rebounds, like they really understand the market....

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 19 2016, 01:48 AM

well.. it is called "pared losses".

wti lost only 2%, so that makes the doha failure not such a big event.

i thought i could double my accrued gains bit no...

just some ikan bilis only.

disappointed!

sold off most of dwti, will hold one small bit for tmrw.

maybe delayed oil bust... hope to see it at 14x then.

bedtime, goodnight...

i am not selling tonight, no show to sell.
good night.

this was why oil did not fall as bad as it should:

what a joke. such a small and short term incident can support oil price....proves that market is really bullish on oil....