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 Fundsupermart.com v9, QE feeds the bull. Ride along...

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cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(IvanWong1989 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:07 AM)
So for newbie like me, stay out for now from MY funds??

What do you mean by "valuation".?
Some of us started moving out funds from MY last week before the correction which I think was a good short term decision. I too reduced my MY holdings by about 75%.

Yesterday's drop in KGF wiped out the last 3 weeks of gains. mad.gif

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 29 2015, 10:25 AM
IvanWong1989
post Apr 29 2015, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Apr 29 2015, 10:14 AM)
How Does One Predict Equity Market Returns?...PUBLISHED on July 25, 2011
In this article, we highlight the 3 key components of equity market returns, allowing investors to estimate the potential returns one may expect from an investment in the stock market.
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=1385

How Do You Determine Which Regional Markets/Single Countries Are Attractive?.....September 10, 2014
We often say that a stock market is attractive, cheap or is trading at a discount compared to our fair estimate PE ratio, implying an opportunity for investors to venture into the market at an attractive valuation. How then do we evaluate the attractiveness of these stock markets? In this article, we will be discussing more on our approach in assessing attractive markets for investors.
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4992
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Thank you very much, am digesting now.

QUOTE(yklooi @ Apr 29 2015, 10:20 AM)
Try the FSM website...on the main page (Home)
under the "Research" section.
usually published once a week.
titled "Market Valuation as at...."
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Owh... i thought they would put it like a dedicated section with all the indeces and their info. Didn't see this. sweat.gif



QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:23 AM)
Some of us started moving out funds from MY last week before the correction which I think was a good short term decision. I too reduced my MY holdings by about 75%.
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Yea, I noticed too, some of you guys start to move. Hence my fixation with KLCI Index. haha. Wanna learn why. rclxub.gif
sweat.gif Studying. (My boss is gonna kill me using work time to do own stuff ><)

aurora97
post Apr 29 2015, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Apr 29 2015, 09:37 AM)
Ok-lah bro. Very good return already. Doesn't matter that it underperformed the benchmark. I am topping up on Japan.  icon_rolleyes.gif
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what go up fast, will come down even faster...

i didn't expect the results.

Am very weary of the US Market (recovery is gaining momentum) now and interest rate hike (slated for July, now supposedly postponed till Sept).

QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:23 AM)
Some of us started moving out funds from MY last week before the correction which I think was a good short term decision. I too reduced my MY holdings by about 75%.

Yesterday's drop in KGF wiped out the last 3 weeks of gains.  mad.gif
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I noted that my Malaysian fund (SOF via EPF and SIF via Cash) after a short rally now stagnant again. This seem to suggest that market is taking profit after some mini rallies.
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 10:33 AM

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A lot of the drop in the global stock markets this week is because of the US Feds meeting ongoing now. So it could pick up or become worse end of this week.

So the question now is, since prices are low for certain funds like KGF, Eastsprings SC and Manulife India, is this a good time to go in or is there more downside potential?

The only fund in my portfolio which is not in the red, is Aberdeen and KGF although my KGF profits have dropped from about 10% to only 4% now.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 29 2015, 10:34 AM
Vanguard 2015
post Apr 29 2015, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:30 AM)
what go up fast, will come down even faster...

i didn't expect the results.

Am very weary of the US Market (recovery is gaining momentum) now and interest rate hike (slated for July, now supposedly postponed till Sept).
I noted  that my Malaysian fund (SOF via EPF and SIF via Cash) after a short rally now stagnant again. This seem to suggest that market is taking profit after some mini rallies.
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I think Japan is still OK. It is a developed market. Ranking No. 2 or No. 3 in terms of biggest stock market in the world. Japanese share market may drop but not drastically as China or India.

The corporate governance of Japan should be better. Their economic data may not be "massaged" like China or Malaysia.

This is just my layman view-lah. smile.gif
SUSyklooi
post Apr 29 2015, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(xxxxxx,)
....
So the question now is, since prices are low for certain funds like KGF, Eastsprings SC and Manulife India, is this a good time to go in or is there more downside potential?
....
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"MAKE REFERENCE TO VALUATION INDICATORS

Thus, investors should never judge if a fund is cheap or expensive based on its fund price. Instead, investors should be aware of the valuations of the underlying markets which the fund invests in. Investors might like to read our monthly Overall Market Summary and Earnings Growth Forecast for equity markets under our coverage to aid them in finding value.

When market fundamentals (such as attractive estimated PE ratios and strong earnings growth) and economic outlook are both supportive, it still makes good sense to invest in a fund even though its unit price is high".

http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=2288
Vanguard 2015
post Apr 29 2015, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(IvanWong1989 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:14 AM)
Haha  cool2.gif  Lock down your profits . haha.

anyway, I asked earlier, any place to get the PE ratio information for the KLCI Index?
In fundsupermart perhaps?
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Ivan, I think the sifus here have come out to answer your questions already. So no need to repeat myself.

Ok login off. I have to earn some moolah. Otherwise no money to invest already. biggrin.gif
SUSyklooi
post Apr 29 2015, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:35 AM)
I think Japan is still OK. It is a developed market. Ranking No. 2 or No. 3 in terms of biggest stock market in the world. Japanese share market may drop but not drastically as China or India.

The corporate governance of Japan should be better. Their economic data may not be "massaged" like China or Malaysia.

This is just my layman view-lah.  smile.gif
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+ Japan got QE and ABE govt got support.....
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Apr 29 2015, 10:37 AM)
"MAKE REFERENCE TO VALUATION INDICATORS

Thus, investors should never judge if a fund is cheap or expensive based on its fund price. Instead, investors should be aware of the valuations of the underlying markets which the fund invests in. Investors might like to read our monthly Overall Market Summary and Earnings Growth Forecast for equity markets under our coverage to aid them in finding value.

When market fundamentals (such as attractive estimated PE ratios and strong earnings growth) and economic outlook are both supportive, it still makes good sense to invest in a fund even though its unit price is high".

http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=2288
The problem is most markets are having PE valuations which are higher than the Fair PE values. So using that as a gauge to determine buying is not gonna be sufficient. History has proven that valuations can sometimes go much higher before a correction begins.

The question now is how much higher can valuations go and for how long? For markets like China, its a bit of a 50-50. Economic growth figures are not good but stock market is rallying and now China plans to begin QE. So I think this region is worth taking a risk on as long as you balance your portfolio with global funds.

In my opinion, both the Malaysia and US markets pose a higher risk of a correction in the near term compared to Europe or Japan or Greater China.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 29 2015, 10:45 AM
SUSyklooi
post Apr 29 2015, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 10:42 AM)
The problem is most markets are having PE valuations which are higher than the Fair PE values. So using that a gauge to determine buying is not gonna be sufficient. History has proven that valuations can sometimes go much higher before a correction begins.

The question now is how much higher can valuations go and for how long? For markets like China, its a bit of a 50-50. Economic growth figures are not good but stock market is rallying and now China plans to begin QE. So I think this region is worth taking a risk on as long as you balance your portfolio with global funds. (yes, same thought here too)

In my opinion, both the Malaysia and US markets pose a higher risk of a correction in the near term compared to Europe or Japan or Greater China. (yes, same thought here too...cos they have QE)
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Yes...
that is why they have this 'disclaimer"....
"Investors should note that while this approach allows for the identification of attractive stock markets, it does not serve to provide the actual timing on when they will rebound".
http://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=4992

what i was told is that, look for upside potentials...usually the rate of returns are much higher during the upswing.
after the upswing normally the return would slows or became stagnant.
Select well, buy it and then wait.

hmm.gif i guess, that is why UT prospectus normally says...hold for mid to long term....

Usually when the market PE is high,..higher corporate results are expected...thus if BELOW expectation....then...drops.

This post has been edited by yklooi: Apr 29 2015, 11:01 AM
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 11:00 AM

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I just did a quick comparison for the money I withdrew from ASB to invest into UT. If I had kept the money in ASB, I would have 'made' a 'profit' 5.7X more than my current UT profit.

So was it a good decision? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 29 2015, 11:00 AM
Kaka23
post Apr 29 2015, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ Apr 29 2015, 11:11 AM)
Er, means PE ratio for the Malaysian stock market is still not attractive. Sorry ah, I have login into FSM now to transfer my funds. Be back later.
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Hey.. you work FSM monitoring your portfolio full time is it?!!! So free ka tongue.gif
TakoC
post Apr 29 2015, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 11:00 AM)
I just did a quick comparison for the money I withdrew from ASB to invest into UT. If I had kept the money in ASB, I would have 'made' a 'profit' 5.7X more than my current UT profit.

So was it a good decision?  hmm.gif
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I think we all always make comparison like that. Heck, if I put all my stock investing money in UT, I would have gain so so so much more.
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Apr 29 2015, 11:02 AM)
I think we all always make comparison like that. Heck, if I put all my stock investing money in UT, I would have gain so so so much more.
Yes but then ure comparing 2 high risk investment modes which is ok. But in this case ASB is far less risk with stable returns (since its fixed price). But UT isn't.
SUSyklooi
post Apr 29 2015, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 11:00 AM)
I just did a quick comparison for the money I withdrew from ASB to invest into UT. If I had kept the money in ASB, I would have 'made' a 'profit' 5.7X more than my current UT profit.

So was it a good decision?  hmm.gif
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doh.gif wow 5.7 times more???
the answer for now at this moment in time is very clear then.
vmad.gif mad.gif
wondering how long and at what IRR rate must this UT perform to be on par if not better? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by yklooi: Apr 29 2015, 11:07 AM
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(yklooi @ Apr 29 2015, 11:05 AM)
doh.gif  wow 5.7 times more???
the answer for now at this time is very clear then.
vmad.gif  mad.gif
wondering how long and at what IRR rate must this UT perform to be on par if not better?  hmm.gif
That's my concern. I don't see my UT earning 5.7X to even match ASB returns unless there's a big jump in China and Hong Kong stock markets. And India stabilises.
Kaka23
post Apr 29 2015, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(TakoC @ Apr 29 2015, 12:02 PM)
I think we all always make comparison like that. Heck, if I put all my stock investing money in UT, I would have gain so so so much more.
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Bro... thought stocks will earn more. You shouldasked pink spider to do the stock pick for you. wink.gif
Arvinaaaaa
post Apr 29 2015, 11:09 AM

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TA European Equity Fund continue to fall... hmm
cybermaster98
post Apr 29 2015, 11:10 AM

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Europe Unseats U.S. as Best Place to Invest in Bloomberg Poll

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-bloomberg-poll

This is quite an unsettling article especially who those of us who are heavy in China at the moment.

SUSyklooi
post Apr 29 2015, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 29 2015, 11:10 AM)
Europe Unseats U.S. as Best Place to Invest in Bloomberg Poll

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...-bloomberg-poll

This is quite an unsettling article especially who those of us who are heavy in China at the moment.
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mad.gif yes, you are right...

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