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 Traders Kopitiam! V7

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Boon3
post Mar 5 2015, 08:32 PM

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QUOTE(max_cavalera @ Mar 5 2015, 07:54 PM)
Not disputing ur analysis...

I was suprised air asia share managed to climb back to almost 2.8(highest 2.9)....with all the problems they facing recently....only recent market valuation match my expectation value on them...
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it wasn't much of an analysis really...
just noting stuff of what I read here and there......

honestly speaking...
I think Tony has gotten way too much credit....... cos basically he's done nothing.
this was a leverage up business model which he is applying on AirAsia....

and for a small country like ours...
it's dangerous.... (who will bear the bailout of AirAsia when it happens in the future?)
leverage kills..... sooner rather than later...
the house of cards can only stack up a few levels high.......


Boon3
post Mar 5 2015, 08:33 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 5 2015, 08:18 PM)
which sector is good for current situation?  icon_question.gif  notworthy.gif
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ps: in case you forgot... you should ask gark ..... he's damn good. tongue.gif


Boon3
post Mar 5 2015, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 5 2015, 08:32 PM)
something stable & give some good dividend for current situation  icon_rolleyes.gif
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I'm a trader...
I do not believe in relying on dividends.
Dividends is nice but it should be regarded only as bonus......

I believe in trading less....
if there's nothing good... or no good idea....
the best idea is to do nothing.

See it's a game of waiting....
you wait to buy...
and you wait to sell.............

in the middle....
when there's nothing.....
you just wait....

biggrin.gif
Boon3
post Mar 5 2015, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 5 2015, 08:42 PM)
okay, maybe I should wait for now..no idea what to buy  sad.gif

while waiting, can juz collect dividend icon_idea.gif
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...not to pour child water but just remember dividends is not 100% fail safe...cos if and when dividwnda is reduced, the stock can go down one...


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 12:07 AM

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QUOTE(Carls_Nemesis @ Mar 5 2015, 08:59 PM)
boon gor the way ur typing macam poet. LOL

juz dump my steel and property with loss. finding some consumer thingy maybe after gst. anyone familiar with zhulian? try to look online but those products i macam never c? hmm.gif
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Ah Lian?

Did you look at its recent few quarter profits?

Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Mar 5 2015, 09:16 PM)
Its true if you put thing in that way. Though i did judge the financial sector and realised that RHB was the safest bet to go for.
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Safe? In a way ...yes.
But how are you going to make money?


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 08:35 AM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Mar 6 2015, 08:09 AM)
Stable and good dividend? U can look at Nestle, Tenaga, Digi, Maybank, Pharma and Bjauto
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Huh?

How do you define stable and good dividend?

Nestle? What's the yield? Is dividends increasing or not?

Better still... I know you have BJauto but what's the yield for BJAuto?


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Mar 6 2015, 08:45 AM)
Morning guys! How's the performance of everyone? Doing good eh few days green green? laugh.gif
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So you have graduated to become an auditor ah?


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 09:04 AM

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QUOTE(shankar_dass93 @ Mar 6 2015, 08:54 AM)
They seem to have better prospects to grow this year, which includes them being able to gain a bigger market share of clients which eventually may lead to a higher level of profit that would be reflected in the share price.

They seem to have a better level of management right now compared to CIMB that has planned to do major changes which could actually backfire.
Anyway, Boon3, which stock are you currently aiming at ?

I find your predictions/analysis to be pretty good. I might jump in the same boat as you in buying the shares that you own! sweat.gif
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I would not disagree with your assessment on RHB.
It has relatively much smaller fewer branches than CIMB and Maybank, therefor, logically, growth in branches is not impossible.
Having said that, the issue is... I feel RHB does not want to grow.
That's my feeling and thinking (which could be wrong) ....
cos, like I said, every few years, this bank is always involved in some sort or merger/sale plan....
which means, how could the management focus on what they are doing with such a overhang issue?

I think I sell ikan one.
cos I have nothing to share....... sweat.gif sweat.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Mar 6 2015, 09:06 AM
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(billy_overheat @ Mar 6 2015, 09:03 AM)
Never an auditor. Still keep reading, reading, reading, preparing, preparing, preparing, sitting tight, tight, tight. tongue.gif
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LOL!!!

You don't play with any spiders?


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(Le Don @ Mar 6 2015, 09:11 AM)
I define stable as not having too much volatility in the stock price the past one year

I define good dividend as any stock having DY>2%

But I accept each person have their own interpretation of what is a stable stock and good dividend. Some people will demand dividend growth and high yield >4% for a stock to be considered good dividend.

Nestle DY is 3.14 and the dividends are increasing each year from 2009.

BJauto DY is 2.39. But I estimate the DPS will be higher in FY2015.
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All stocks are risky.

And because it is risky, a pure dividend player is seeking to get the best option for the money.
Which means, the yield they get should be more than conventional money market (FD) rate.

If the rate isn't more, why take the risk, since in the stock market, the share price CAN go down?

If you are in the market long enough..
you will hear the following....
oh I make so much dividends from this stock...
but my share price is under water......


Such scenario...
is real...
and it can happen....
if one blindly seek dividend yield......

and not forgetting...
sometimes companies...
would die die dare to ...NOT give/skip dividend ....

example? YTL Power recently (was it 2013 or 2012?)
Many assumed...
big taukeh company...
plenty of cash (plenty of debts too) ......
sure every year got dividend one......
but then..........it happened.....
no dividends were given... and the share was hit hard.

or how about the example of Petronas Dagang?
it was a constant dividend giver....
but did you see how the stock tanked?
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 12:49 PM)
Good luck digging that info from him..  tongue.gif
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doh.gif

Stone fire !!!!

tongue.gif


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(kueyteowlou @ Mar 6 2015, 01:14 PM)
wub.gif  wub.gif  wub.gif

where got lousy ... good stock leh... waiting director to print more shares in the market la ....
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Lousy company sometimes no mean lousy stock. tongue.gif


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 01:17 PM)
Eh? I am telling the truth.. says fire stone pulak..  tongue.gif
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sad.gif


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(infernoaswen @ Mar 6 2015, 02:19 PM)
Oil no drop for last report meh?
Airasia got make money or lose money?
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 02:19 PM)
For me.. never buy anything with wings.. nod.gif

Because airlines can never have positive free cashflow.. in order to stay competitive it have to continue to buy and buy and buy planes, to both expand capacity and replace and retire the old ones. The more capacity they add the more they need to discount to attract the capacity, hence lower margins. It is a vicious cycle..

Since most planes are so expensive in the first place, most airline, buy and sell back to airline company for lease back. This creates a mountain of debts, and IF there are any mishaps or downturn.. they can not repay those massive debts.

The world stock market is littered with plenty of failed or bankrupt airlines ... KLSE included (MAS .. transmile..Berjaya Air)..  sweat.gif

That is why i avoid anything with wings ... no matter how good it looks. icon_idea.gif
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Same buycalll from same analysts..
LOL!

Did they see this problem the last time?
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 03:00 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Mar 6 2015, 01:50 PM)
laugh.gif

joking nia..  tongue.gif
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I file report with headmaster......... tongue.gif

Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(infernoaswen @ Mar 6 2015, 03:18 PM)
airlines do fuel hedging...but then I dont have a crystal ball so who knows where its heading, it might just continue to drop ever since the QZ8501 incident  whistling.gif

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-...r-airlines-adam
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LOL!!!

Did you read what happened to AirAsia hedging?
Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Mar 6 2015, 04:19 PM)
what happen? blink.gif  hmm.gif
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Hedging is useful in most businesses......

But if done wrongly....
Or as gark said 'terbalik'....
U can lose money one.


The bigger elephant for AirAsia is the USD....

And the bulk of their borrowings (12 billion) is in USD.


Boon3
post Mar 6 2015, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Mar 6 2015, 04:35 PM)
AA indeed hedged oil at high price, but I guess still lower than in earlier quarters.
If you read quarterly report carefully, you will notice that much of its 'loss' was caused by unrealized forex loss. Thing is not as bad as many thought.

Then again, AA Indon disaster is likely to have an averse effect this year. And who knows ebola/MERS may spread to SEA  whistling.gif
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Not as bad?
Did they even know it would be bad in the first place?

Two words...
Financial costs...

Go see and then do the quarterly comparisons.....

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